Surviving East Prussia

Vnix · Mar 17, 2012

How could East Prussia survive after WW2?
Could East Prussia perhaps survive as the Preußische Demokratische (Sowjet) Republik?

Furthermore what would happen if the inevitable fall of the USSR arrives and the DDR (Deutsche Demockratische Republik, East Germany) rejoins the BRD (Bundes Republik Deutschland, West Germany).

pompejus · Mar 17, 2012

Personally I think that East-Prussia is the least likely part of Germany to remain German. I could see Pommerania and Silesia remaining German (for example if the Soviet Union does worse during WWII and gets a smaller part of Eastern Germany), but I am afraid East-Prussia will always be divided by Poland and Russia and thus be Polified and Russified.

Snake Featherston · Mar 17, 2012

This requires an entire aversion of WWII as a starting point, or at the very least averting the rise of the Nazis.

TyranicusMaximus · Mar 17, 2012

Vnix said:
How could East Prussia survive after WW2?
Could East Prussia perhaps survive as the Preußische Demokratische (Sowjet) Republik?

Furthermore what would happen if the inevitable fall of the USSR arrives and the DDR (Deutsche Demockratische Republik, East Germany) rejoins the BRD (Bundes Republik Deutschland, West Germany).

The fall of the CCCP was by no means inevitable

EternalCynic · Mar 17, 2012

Vnix said:
Furthermore what would happen if the inevitable fall of the USSR arrives and the DDR (Deutsche Demockratische Republik, East Germany) rejoins the BRD (Bundes Republik Deutschland, West Germany).

If the DDR keeps all of Germany east of the Oder Neisse Line, the DDR will have a similar area and population of the BRD. Even Kohl will be too afraid of immediately merging the two Germanies. Will both Germanies even desire a long-term reunification process?

I think if that happened, East Prussia will emerge as Austria's poorer cousin: also of German culture, but unwilling to be part of "Germany". It would be ironic that the two military powers which drove German unification won't be part of Germany.

MSZ · Mar 17, 2012

Have the western Allies make it as far east and you will likely see it survive in some form. OTL I think the fate of Prussia was decided only in Yalta in 1944 so there certainly is room to somehow alter it. Operation Unthinkable could be another option.

A Prussian SSR - I used to think it could be a solution that would allow a Prussia to form after the fall of the USSR, but I am no longer so sure about it. My recent research had made me realize that Stalin was very cautious when it went to incorporating "capitalist mentality nations" to the Soviet Union, so Prussian Germans most likely would be seen as a destructive force within the country.

EternalCynic · Mar 17, 2012

MSZ said:
A Prussian SSR - I used to think it could be a solution that would allow a Prussia to form after the fall of the USSR, but I am no longer so sure about it. My recent research had made me realize that Stalin was very cautious when it went to incorporating "capitalist mentality nations" to the Soviet Union, so Prussian Germans most likely would be seen as a destructive force within the country.

But weren't the three Baltic states and Finland (which Stalin tried to annex as an SSR) of "capitalist mentality"? The Lviv region, largely Catholic and westward-looking, would also be ideologically dangerous. The stereotype of iron-disciplined Prussians seems more receptive to central planning than the other annexed regions.

V-J · Mar 17, 2012

East Prussia was never heavily populated and after the war it was even less so. There's no reason to keep it as a seperate, etnically German unit.

Nietzsche · Mar 17, 2012

V-J said:
East Prussia was never heavily populated and after the war it was even less so. There's no reason to keep it as a seperate, etnically German unit.

As much as this pains me, I must agree. No matter how much a surviving East Prussia would please me, I am all too aware that her coffin has been made, the body laid, and the final nails hammered home. Its only asset is Koenigsberg, but by 1945 it was a smouldering ruin.

MSZ said:
A Prussian SSR - I used to think it could be a solution that would allow a Prussia to form after the fall of the USSR, but I am no longer so sure about it. My recent research had made me realize that Stalin was very cautious when it went to incorporating "capitalist mentality nations" to the Soviet Union, so Prussian Germans most likely would be seen as a destructive force within the country.

...Huh? Stalin saw Prussia as one of the better portions of Germany, so much so he used the examples of Prussian officers who defected to Russia during the Napoleonic wars as examples to Germans(or at the least, Prussians) that defying their leader was not defying their loyalty to Prussia.

Vnix · Mar 18, 2012

could a communist coup in Prussia not be a way to save them from the commy onslaught? For example the Wehrmacht retreats into Prussia but can not hold on much longer and they perform a coup (in this scenario Prussia would be blockaded and surrounded) and surrender to the commies?

MattII · Mar 18, 2012

IMO it'd be easier to work out how to get rid of East Prussia in 1918 than how to keep it in 1945.

pompejus · Mar 18, 2012

EternalCynic said:
If the DDR keeps all of Germany east of the Oder Neisse Line, the DDR will have a similar area and population of the BRD. Even Kohl will be too afraid of immediately merging the two Germanies. Will both Germanies even desire a long-term reunification process?

The solution would be to move the western border of East Germany to the East somehow (the western allies do better and the Sovjets do worse in the war, France and/or Canada are seen as full allies and get part of Germany to occupy), so the border between West and East Germany lies roughly at Berlin and Stalin decides that the Oder-Neisse border will not lead to a good buffer Germany and let Germany keep Pommerania, Silesia and East Prussia. Letting Germany keep East Prussia is the hard part as even in this scenario it will probably be annexed by Russia (who want a warmwater port) and Poland (who suddenly is a lot smaller) and thus be Russified and Polofied.

EternalCynic · Mar 18, 2012

pompejus said:
The solution would be to move the western border of East Germany to the East somehow (the western allies do better and the Sovjets do worse in the war, France and/or Canada are seen as full allies and get part of Germany to occupy), so the border between West and East Germany lies roughly at Berlin and Stalin decides that the Oder-Neisse border will not lead to a good buffer Germany and let Germany keep Pommerania, Silesia and East Prussia. Letting Germany keep East Prussia is the hard part as even in this scenario it will probably be annexed by Russia (who want a warmwater port) and Poland (who suddenly is a lot smaller) and thus be Russified and Polofied.

We're playing with Stalin's mind here, which is difficult. Perhaps Stalin will decide East Prussia is the "most proletariat" part of Germany and decides to annex it as the "Ostpreußischen Sozialistischen Sowjetrepublik", which includes Danzig (in order to more thoroughly control Poland's external trade). He might order the "construction" of a "neo-Prussian" language which revives many Old Prussian vocabulary and infuses many Russian loanwords to reduce East Prussians' affinity with Germany. Maybe he'll even convert it to Cyrillic script. Khrushchev then orders a reversal of these linguistic policies, while using propaganda to remind East Prussians that German nationalism is neo-Nazism. Six digits of Russians are encouraged to move to Konigsberg to work in the crucial warm water port. The result is that after the collapse of the USSR, East Prussia is a Protestant and poorer mirror image of Austria.

As for Poland, Stalin allows it to retain the Lviv region to minimize capitalist influences in the USSR proper. In order to placate Polish demands for German restitution, he orders the DDR to grant Poland a 50% stake in Silesia's coal and iron mines. As a tacit condition for guaranteeing free western passage to West Berlin, West Germany and the west provide the Eastern Bloc with "gifts" of western food and industrial products, which Soviet propaganda hails as proof of western admission of neo-Nazism.

Then again, the butterflies with this mess will be enormous.

Vnix · Mar 18, 2012

would be funny, German written in the Cyrillic script, though I doubt the Prussians would comply with reviving Old Prussian

ivanotter · Mar 18, 2012

True, we are playing with Stalin's mind.

For Stalin to see anything positive about anything German will be difficult.

Remember what happend to the Volga republic? and that was based on the ethnic make-up, not actions. And even some 4 generations later.

Ivan

Vnix · Mar 18, 2012

perhaps he decides to remove the Volga Germans and send them to the new Prussian SSR to build up a German buffer. After all sacrificing German lives or Russian lives...

Easterling · Mar 18, 2012

Vnix said:
How could East Prussia survive after WW2?
Could East Prussia perhaps survive as the Preußische Demokratische (Sowjet) Republik?

Only if the Soviets have no other part of Germany under their control at the end of the war, in which case Prussia will be called DDR and will lay claim to all the rest of Germany in the name of socialism.

Adler · Mar 18, 2012

The only possibility would be under these circumstances:

1. No Hitler at power any more. The Allies would not have negotiated with him. Also a Nazi successor could be possible.

2. No war with Stalin any more. Stalin might have lost the war or had accepted a seperate peace with Germany. Again, that would mean, Hitler has no power any more.

3. Poland out of the war or otherwise unable to claim these territories. Poland becoming a client of the Soviets, so that the Allies would not help them any more, or the Western Powers would really recognize their Atlantic Charta.

Adler

EternalCynic · Mar 18, 2012

ivanotter said:
True, we are playing with Stalin's mind.

For Stalin to see anything positive about anything German will be difficult.

Remember what happend to the Volga republic? and that was based on the ethnic make-up, not actions. And even some 4 generations later.

Ivan

Let's play again with Stalin's mind!

Stalin decides that East Prussians are not, after all, Germans. They were merely Germanized (and brainwashed by capitalist values) Prussians, and therefore were to be re-Prussianized. The part of East Prussia subjected to the 1920 LoN referendum is unilaterally given to Poland, and ethnic Germans are moved north. East Prussia is combined with Danzig, again to control Poland's external trade. Because Prussians were closely related to Lithuanians, Stalin makes East Prussia the Ostpreußischen Autonome Sozialistische Sowjetrepublik within the Lithuanian SSR. As much as possible, the link between East Prussia and Germany is cut off through Soviet propaganda.

Also, ethnic Germans throughout the USSR are expelled according to reliability and utility. The worst troublemakers are expelled to West Germany. The more useful and reliable Germans are expelled to the DDR. The rest are resettled to the OPASSR.

When the USSR collapses, Lithuania takes East Prussia with it. Decades of Soviet propaganda had convinced East Prussians not to join Germany, yet they're now a suspicious minority in a new land. They're also leery of seceding from Lithuania due to Hitler's shadow, and must accommodate the 30% Russian community concentrated in Konigsberg. Fun times.

SlideAway · Mar 18, 2012

I really see no prospect for continued German control of E. Prussia after Sept. 1939. Even the Western Allies' postwar plans and the Polish government's initial postwar plans - all while being more generous to Germany in the East - called for Germany to lose E. Prussia, because of the belief that it made the defense of Poland quite difficult.

Most plans called for all of E. Prussia going to Poland - it was relatively late in the game that Stalin decided he wanted Königsberg. Early plans called for Poland to receive all of E. Prussia, and for Germany to retain Stettin/Szczecin.

Given Stalin's desire to retain most of his Molotov-Ribbentrop land grab, the most likely alternate borders for Poland and Germany would have been that described above - German control of Stettin, Polish control of N. East Prussia and Konigsberg, and/or Polish control of Lwow/Lvov and a German-Polish border along the Oder and Eastern Neisse, which would have given German the southern half of Silesia including most of Breslau.

Here's a map of Allied border proposals: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Vertreibungsgebiet.jpg