Survey: Actual German Annexations, 1914

Tallil2long

I'd like to get, in one convenient location, your views about what Germany might plausibly seize (or place under domination) in the event that she won in the West in 1914. I will refrain from arguing for or against anything, though I will propose objections and ask what you think about them.

The situation: Alien Space Bats use their dastardly mind-control ray to impose gratuitously bad decisions on French generals. France's armies are decisively defeated on or immediately before/behind the Frontiers. France in dire straits sues for peace (you may assume that the Germans do not immediately negotiate but rather continue pushing forward, if you wish).

Note that this isn't exactly a question of war aims, but rather what Germany realistically could/would do.
 

Tibi088

In the west I think Luxemburg, Lüttich (Liege), and from France Briey for sure and maybe some other parts of Lorraine.
 
Albidoom

Albidoom

Well, to copy from an older post of mine:

Albidoom said:
View attachment 101665
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000westfront-jpg.101665


Luxemburg and some Border "corrections" along the Alsatian border as some kind of minimum demands.

More ambitious the German border would run along the Meuse river from the Netherlands up to Verdun (and of course the minimum demands from above as well)

About their most exaggerated/extended demands I won't comment...
 

Tallil2long

Here's a question.

If the Germans (somehow) managed to badly crush France's army and made her sue for peace, it's reasonable to assert that nobody in the West could compel Germany to lighten her terms. After all, without France, Britain cannot at this time pursue a ground war on her own.

But what diplomatic value might accrue to Britain promising to exit the war? Germany was terrified of a long war, largely due to Britain's ability to halt German trade. So if, for instance, Britain's leaders offered to make peace immediately in return for Germany relinquishing all demands on Belgium, what value would the Germans put on it?

And of course, could Britain offer such a deal?
 

miketr

The Germans didn't have any overarching plans when the war kicked off beyond WIN. The Septermberprogramm was cobbled together by the Chancellor and you can be sure if actual peace talks occurred view it as nothing more than a starting point for talks. The army, navy, kaiser and other interest groups would all kick in their two bits.

Michael
 
Driftless

Driftless

Donor
Tallil2long said:
Here's a question.

If the Germans (somehow) managed to badly crush France's army and made her sue for peace, it's reasonable to assert that nobody in the West could compel Germany to lighten her terms. After all, without France, Britain cannot at this time pursue a ground war on her own.

But what diplomatic value might accrue to Britain promising to exit the war? Germany was terrified of a long war, largely due to Britain's ability to halt German trade. So if, for instance, Britain's leaders offered to make peace immediately in return for Germany relinquishing all demands on Belgium, what value would the Germans put on it?

And of course, could Britain offer such a deal?
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All of which points up the folly of the whole war - heavy on fulfilling obligations, light on real objectives - pretty much across the map.
 

trajen777

Banned
It really depends on what year your talking about ....
1. Their was no plan in the 1914
2. Sept program was never really a plan
3. German Historian Fritz Fischer has a whole book on this year by year
4. When total war (1918) -- u had Briey to take the ore and coal areas -- if the Germans had won overwhelming
5. I think if america not in the war - and the Oct offences had failed -- i think status quo on the western front with dependent state in Poland / Baltic / Ukraine
 

Tallil2long

trajen777 said:
It really depends on what year your talking about ....
1. Their was no plan in the 1914
2. Sept program was never really a plan
3. German Historian Fritz Fischer has a whole book on this year by year
4. When total war (1918) -- u had Briey to take the ore and coal areas -- if the Germans had won overwhelming
5. I think if america not in the war - and the Oct offences had failed -- i think status quo on the western front with dependent state in Poland / Baltic / Ukraine
Click to expand...

I'm asking about an early victory -- no later than the end of 1914, and probably no later than the end of Sep 1914.
 

NoMommsen

With such an early victory over France ... I would assume there wouldn't be very much of "annexations" if any.

Maybe some border border corrections, as already mentioned, in Lorraine and Alsac, though IMO rather small, "just" to improve defensibility of the Vogese-passes. Belfort might even mot be seized by the germans, but ...
all french fortresses in about 100 km range from border would have to be crushed to ribbles with dissallowance to build others or even modernize the once deeper into France.
Beside some "felt" hefty reparations (I would render them in the range of 20-25 billions gold-france, given the "inflation" since 1871 and the need to refinance some ... other payments [see below]), ofc the french army has to be reduced and kept on low weaponry and stiking ability, similar to OTL ToV arrangements.

Briey/Longwy ... no annexation, but probably kind of a "Saarlandisation" with exclusive rights of exploitation by (the already present) german heavy steel-and-iron industrialists (most prominently : Hugo Stinnes, who had already strong ... "feelers" in the region pre-war).

No "need" to 'annex' Luxembourg, IMO, just "offer" it full membership in the Empire. Even if it shoud refrain from making this obvious choice (since Britain would be "pleased" to stay out of at least this contibebtal affair), it would be fully dependant of Germany, economical as well as diplomatical and foreign-political.

Belgium : will be restored in Europe to its pre-war borders in full ... and given "reparations" for done destructions as offered pre-war. This will be the "price" Germany will (have to ? be happy to ?) pay for Britain to end hostilities and blockade.

There will also be some colonial "rearrangements" on french costs (esp. french Congo-holdings, maybe some pacific territories as well) but not the BIG Mittelafrica. That would be too big a chunk of Africa to be accepted by Britain IMO.

With such an early victory ... Japan doesn't have the time to get in and demand ... Tsingtao stays (at least at this moment in history) german.

With such an early victory ... Ottoman Empire not in ... yet.

The "globalisation" is mostly avoided, it becomes a "purly" european, maybe eurasian (if you count the caucasus into this definition) war.



IMO the germans would be so "generous" as describe, cause :
they still have to manage an eastern front war and for that they need free sea-lanes for trade and resource allocation.
...
... but you haven't asked about recouperations on the easrten war :biggrin:
 

sloreck

IMHO the territorial changes in Europe will be small, none in Belgium and limited in France but a required DMZ. Of course Germany will keep her colonies and I expect will take a fair number of French ones - in the Pacific perhaps all of the French Islands, and in Africa some of the sub-Saharan territory.
 

Richter von Manthofen

Tallil2long said:
I know that's what quite a few very influential people wanted; but do you consider it very plausible that it's what they'd actually be able to get?
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well I "only" meant the territorial changes which were fairly moderate in 1914. Briey-Longwy, Luxenburg becoming a state within Germany (expanded by some BElgium territory and some more Belgium territory annexed to Prussia (IIRC)

The "economic" part - don't know but probably no
 
Clandango

Clandango

Might be they occupy land until the French pay off huge reperations. They will of course still take some land, though might want to focus on the more luctrative colonies. I don't mean colonies in general being lucrative as they were money sinks, but asking for the more valuable French colonies. Probably just French Congo as well as Belgian Congo, as well as the return of their own colonies. The blue line on their, showing the former extends of the HRE, will of course not be an option. The British wouldn't allow it and the Italians, Dutch, Swiss, and everyone else would be alarmed at even the suggestion of the Germans trying to take so much land that had once been in the HRE five centuries before. Maybe the Germans take that small department near the French border? The only remains of the province of Alsace.
 

Tallil2long

Clandango said:
Snip.
The blue line on their, showing the former extends of the HRE, will of course not be an option. The British wouldn't allow it and the Italians, Dutch, Swiss, and everyone else would be alarmed at even the suggestion of the Germans trying to take so much land that had once been in the HRE five centuries before.
Snip.
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Well, the British certainly couldn't resist annexation to the blue line by land forces, nor could the Swiss, Dutch, etc.

I take it, then, that you believe the German government to be at least somewhat persuadable by diplomatic pressure? I've always supposed it would be, at least to some degree.

Clandango said:
I believe NoMommsen brought it up because Germany will only be able to expand on so many sides. I doubt they would get any colonies if they took much land from European France, for instance.
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That is, I think, a good point. There's undoubtedly a limit to how much the Germans could -- or would even want to -- annex. And whether they'd look at it this way or not, gains in the West are far more likely to cause lasting problems with Britain and the U.S. than gains in the East, for instance.
 
Clandango

Clandango

Tallil2long said:
Well, the British certainly couldn't resist annexation to the blue line by land forces, nor could the Swiss, Dutch, etc.

I take it, then, that you believe the German government to be at least somewhat persuadable by diplomatic pressure? I've always supposed it would be, at least to some degree.
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It certainly would make it easier for them to gain their desired hegemony (I believe they also had some understanding with France at one point with Scandinavia being in Germany's area of interest and either the Low Countries or Spain/Italy being in France's. Might have been around Napoleon III) if all their neighbors didn't think they intended to Attack and invade them like they did with Hanover, Poland, Denmark, Austria, France, Belgium, Saxony, etc over the preceding century. Having the border go up to the HRE limits... Yah, that would be trouble for them. If they annex so much land populated almost entirely by French speakers, what would stop them from claiming most of Italy? Really, the Germans wouldn't be for this. What would the relationship of the land be to the rest of the empire, for instance? Annexed to Prussia? New Kingdom? Added to other ones? Or perhaps it gets an Alsace-Lorraine sort of situation. Meaning constant martial law that had the German-speaking population come to hate their occupiers immensely.

Bringing Luxembourg in as a member state of the German empire is an obvious move, and perhaps it is even expanded a bit with Arleland or Belgian Luxembourg. A little more Belgian land, perhaps around southern Limburg, would also be added such as on the map. Lot of German teaching in schools after annexation, followed by the rump Belgian state no longer having French be the official language. Instead Flemish takes over, and is taught to the remainder of Belgium. The Flemish would be expected to be duly gravely, and the Dutch would come into some economic union, while the Scandinavians stay neutral, though with one of their biggest trading partners being Germany. With the Dutch still independent, the British don't make moves to seize their colonies, and they might negotiate returning one or two German colonies, and perhaps letting them half a bit of Belgian Congo. Might be the Germans push for Belgium being considered independent, so Congo stays Dutch instead of being partitioned by Britain and France (who would get the colony if the Belgians could not maintain the colony, depending on how you interpret treaties with Leopold).

This could lead in part to Dutch, Belgian, Danish, and Norwegian ships getting a lot of German ownership but they, more importantly, would bring in raw materials and resources from Suriname, Congo, Indonesia, Iceland, Greenland, Svalbard, and whatever remained of the German colonies, all to feed German factories and shops, so that the standard of living could increase to make the government look good to their people, while also strenghening their military. I also expect France would be made to pay reperations, in exchange for not losing loads of land.

And then there is the even further expanded economic influence in the Ottoman Empire (presuming the Germans didn't throw the under the bus and the British are occupying everything south of Turkey), plus pull in Persia, leadership of a band of states on their Eastern border, business opportunities in the Americas (probably will put more focus on Mexico due to victory disease), plus I imagine they will want to get a new port in China for trade opportunities, influence in Ethiopia if they get them into the war and they grab a coast, French Morocco might be transferred to the Germans...
 
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