Stopping Barbarossa?
- Thread starter Flashman
- Start date
But that likely means no Hitler (and maybe no USSR as well). Unless Germany ends up with ruler with last name of Hitler who is totally different person than OTL Hitler and Russia turns into state with USSR acronym which means something completly different than OTL
Well now that it is in post-1900, it kind of depends where you want the POD. It seems to me that Hitler is pretty devoted to the concept of Lebensraum, so if he comes into power and starts a world war, and as long as Russia is not an ally, I am pretty sure he will invade it.
Yeah, have Hitler get defeated in France and Russia declare war against them in 1942.
and SU will not be an ally becasue of said devotion to Lebensraum concept. It will be be something Germany can trade with and coexist for a while, as long as it's convenient.
Guderian claimed that Hitler had said that he would never have dared to attack the Soviet Union if he had believed that the Russians really had that many tanks. If that statement is true, then we would need a slightly more open Soviet Union, so the Germans can see how much equipment Russia has, and it might also be advantageous to avoid the Finnish war, so the Red Army still seems strong and efficient.
Because
A. Hitler was known for never lying (I guess that's why people called him honest Adolf
)B. If your neighbour has lots of tanks and is your ideological, racial and polical nemesis best thing to do is.... nothing?
LordKalvert
Banned
if we get away from the silly responses (Hitler not coming to power, getting killed in WWI and such) then there is one possibility:
Have Stalin let Hitler know exactly how many toys the Soviets really have. Hitler did once tell his generals that if he had known how powerful the Soviets were, he wouldn't have ordered the attack
Of course, that could lead to Stalin attacking Hitler so were back to war between the two which seems kind of inevitable given the paranoia and meglamania of the two.
Have Stalin let Hitler know exactly how many toys the Soviets really have. Hitler did once tell his generals that if he had known how powerful the Soviets were, he wouldn't have ordered the attack
Of course, that could lead to Stalin attacking Hitler so were back to war between the two which seems kind of inevitable given the paranoia and meglamania of the two.
Germany in 1941's their strategic options are:
1. Try to force the British to come to terms via a air-naval war against their shipping.
2. Try to defeat the British by beating them in the Mediterranean.
3. Invade the Soviet Union.
4. Try to sit on the defensive until the British accept a German dominated continental Western Europe.
5. Some combination of the above.
The problem with these options are:
1. German resources are inadequate to effectively block the British without pissing off the United States. Once the US is pissed, German resources are inadequate... period. Also allows the Soviets to grow more and more powerful.
2. Depends on weak allies and impossible logistics. Also allows the Soviets to grow more and more powerful.
3. The Soviet Union's huge spaces, difficult (for the Germans) logistics infrastructure, large industry, and massive manpower pool inevitably leads to a war of attrition Germany really can't sustain.
4. Ideologically and politically unattractive, questionable economically, and allows the Soviets to grow more and more powerful.
5. Combine the difficulties and add the problems that come with dilution of effort.
1. Try to force the British to come to terms via a air-naval war against their shipping.
2. Try to defeat the British by beating them in the Mediterranean.
3. Invade the Soviet Union.
4. Try to sit on the defensive until the British accept a German dominated continental Western Europe.
5. Some combination of the above.
The problem with these options are:
1. German resources are inadequate to effectively block the British without pissing off the United States. Once the US is pissed, German resources are inadequate... period. Also allows the Soviets to grow more and more powerful.
2. Depends on weak allies and impossible logistics. Also allows the Soviets to grow more and more powerful.
3. The Soviet Union's huge spaces, difficult (for the Germans) logistics infrastructure, large industry, and massive manpower pool inevitably leads to a war of attrition Germany really can't sustain.
4. Ideologically and politically unattractive, questionable economically, and allows the Soviets to grow more and more powerful.
5. Combine the difficulties and add the problems that come with dilution of effort.
This seems to meet the requirement. If Hitler gets bogged down in France the USSR probably won't be in the card for a while...
The OP is "poll-worthy"
My personal take is that Hitler is going to do it under nearly all circumstances if he's conquered Western Europe. He'd probably dismiss reports or declarations of vaster Soviet armament.
The question becomes, what military misfortunes, stresses or circumstances could cause him to put off the invasion:
A) Failing to win against France? - that's probably fairly non-controversial
B) Japan and America enter the war pre-Barbarossa, especially if its a year or more early?
C) Britain and France go to war against the USSR over the Finnish War?
D) USSR joins the Axis after Fall of France and invades the Middle East?(Not bloody likely from the Soviet point of view), but theoretically Hitler may delay for a limited period to allow more damage to Britain and to see if Britain will come to terms based on combined German-Italian-Soviet pressures.
E) France fights on from the Med?
F) WWII begins over Czechoslovakia, 1938, not Poland, 1939. --Most likely leads to A), but say it does not and there's a miracle and Germany wins in Czechoslovakia in '38 and France in '39, but the war becomes a new "peninsular war" as it merges with an unfinished Spanish Civil War. The widened scope of the German commitment to southwest Europe, plus the probability that Poland is a neutral, really cuts off plausible pathways for a German invasion of the USSR.
My personal take is that Hitler is going to do it under nearly all circumstances if he's conquered Western Europe. He'd probably dismiss reports or declarations of vaster Soviet armament.
The question becomes, what military misfortunes, stresses or circumstances could cause him to put off the invasion:
A) Failing to win against France? - that's probably fairly non-controversial
B) Japan and America enter the war pre-Barbarossa, especially if its a year or more early?
C) Britain and France go to war against the USSR over the Finnish War?
D) USSR joins the Axis after Fall of France and invades the Middle East?(Not bloody likely from the Soviet point of view), but theoretically Hitler may delay for a limited period to allow more damage to Britain and to see if Britain will come to terms based on combined German-Italian-Soviet pressures.
E) France fights on from the Med?
F) WWII begins over Czechoslovakia, 1938, not Poland, 1939. --Most likely leads to A), but say it does not and there's a miracle and Germany wins in Czechoslovakia in '38 and France in '39, but the war becomes a new "peninsular war" as it merges with an unfinished Spanish Civil War. The widened scope of the German commitment to southwest Europe, plus the probability that Poland is a neutral, really cuts off plausible pathways for a German invasion of the USSR.
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LordKalvert
Banned
That almost guarantees it. Hitler would just love to crush the Soviets while they are having a power struggle
I've always been curious what might happen if a strong Germany and a strong France coexisted. For example if France had the best possible 1930s it could realistically expect, and had demonstrated it, say firmer diplomacy and a successful intervention in the Spanish civil war. Would Hitler have delayed Barbarossa until Germany was (in the view of Hitler and his generals at least) strong enough to take on France and beat it, or would Hitler launch Barbarossa without going to war in the west (probably in alliance with Poland in this case - though without the miraculous victory over France in 1940, I am not sure why Poland or anyone else in central Europe would entertain starting a war with Russia just because the Germans THINK they can win).
fasquardon
fasquardon
this.
Also, have Stalin not inform Hitler about the letter he received from Churchill - this almost guarantees no Barbarossa in '41.
sharlin
Banned
It is possible if you had a very different hitler or he somehow forgot his whole lebensraum stuff and his hatred of das untermensch that he'd been pouring into Germany's ears for the past decade.
But really any delay with fighting the Soviet union just gets them more and more in debt to the Soviets as teh Germans were buying stuff off them to keep their war machine running. really i'd look at the Blunted Sickle storyline to see how this goes.
But really any delay with fighting the Soviet union just gets them more and more in debt to the Soviets as teh Germans were buying stuff off them to keep their war machine running. really i'd look at the Blunted Sickle storyline to see how this goes.