Stalin's Importance to USSR's War Effort

Reading over some "WI/AHC: Germany Wins WWII" threads, a lot of the plausible scenarios involve knocking the USSR out of the war. OK, that makes sense...but one of the most common POD's for that to happen involves the death or (less likely) removal of Stalin. Going with the former (specifically, a sudden death of natural causes), a couple of questions:

  • How important was the person of Stalin to the USSR's continuance in the war against Germany?
  • If he were to die, who-if anyone-would be able to survive the internal power struggle and continue to keep the USSR fighting?
I realize that a lot depends on when this happens but pick anytime after June 22, 1941.
 
I'm going to be in a minority here, but Stalin, having liquidated all coherent opposition, was, in many respects, the keystone figure of the USSR. The red court was every bit as bitter and divisive as its feudal predecessors, with a whole host of 'favorites' trying to get laws and positions past the General Secretary. There was no conventional, modern political process at work, especially among the upper echelons - it was pretty much survival of the fittest, and a strong leader was essentially neccessitated to keep everything intact (see the post-Lenin leadership struggle of the 1920s). Conflicts were left to simmer beneath the surface whilst Stalin held the reins of power. If he dies in the late-1930s / early-1940s, the daggers are going to be truly out of their sheaths.

There's an assumption on here that the Soviet bigwigs would somehow pull together in the face of German aggression at such a critical hour, because, well, they're Soviet bigwigs. This sort of situation has a track record, and it's not a good one. The USSR was not a state built upon reliable power politics. There isn't going to be some immediate leadership transition, nor can you trust distinct strands of the government apparatus, in the absence of a central force, to coexist meaningfully. Dodgy dealing and dirty tricks were modus operandi. Nobody's saying Stalin was a exceptionally able leader. He was, however, a unifying one.

BTW, this needs a move to After 1900.
 

Artaxerxes

Banned
I'm going to be in a minority here.

SNIP

I'd agree completely with this summary, with a sudden power vacuum from Stalin dying you are going to see a lot of fighting going on right when you need someone solid to be making decisions.

Shortly after the invasion Stalin reportedly did go off and sulk/retreat for a week somewhere, if there was going to be a coup/accident/assassination that would be the perfect time for it.

Probably the best decision Stalin made was to stay in Moscow in 41 rather than packing up the government, he was great for morale, even if somewhat lacking in tactical or strategic abilities.
 

RousseauX

Donor
Reading over some "WI/AHC: Germany Wins WWII" threads, a lot of the plausible scenarios involve knocking the USSR out of the war. OK, that makes sense...but one of the most common POD's for that to happen involves the death or (less likely) removal of Stalin. Going with the former (specifically, a sudden death of natural causes), a couple of questions:

  • How important was the person of Stalin to the USSR's continuance in the war against Germany?
  • If he were to die, who-if anyone-would be able to survive the internal power struggle and continue to keep the USSR fighting?
I realize that a lot depends on when this happens but pick anytime after June 22, 1941.


He is absolutely essential in the sense that he purged everyone who has even an inkling of independence in the party, the bureaucracy and the army. In 1941 if he dies the system either falls apart due to infighting or suffer from paralysis.

Might not be enough to win Germany the war, but affects the post-war borders quite a bit.

If he were to die, who-if anyone-would be able to survive the internal power struggle and continue to keep the USSR fighting?
One of the Stalinist cronies, none of whom are terribly good at commanding militaries but who might subservient themselves to competent people like Zhukov because none of them are functional without the Great Stalin ordering them around.

The sole exception might be Beria, who, despite being a monster personally, might well have being the best leader for the USSR.
 
Could Beria end up being a Soviet Petain? I'm assuming that if he does try to do something like that Zhukov will sooner or later overthrow him, providing of course Zhukov isn't disposed of first.
 
Considering how many enemies Beria had made and how he only survived about nine months after Stalin's death I would think his chances of leading the Soviet union rather slim.:eek:
 
By 1941 Stalin was essential to the Soviet war effort. He had purged all high ranking dissenters. He created so much fear that when he had a breakdown for a short while the government just stopped as his subordinates refused to make decisions he might dislike. If Stalin were to die the Soviet government would probably become a nightmare of infighting. If they survived the most likely candidates for Stalin's successor would be Beria or Molotov. They would probably still win the war even with the infighting, given the massive amounts of manpower and General Winter, but it would be much closer and the Soviets probably wouldn't take control of most of Eastern Europe.
 
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