Spain without the March 11 2004 attack?

[carlosperezesp]

I was only 11, but I still remember a lot from that day. Almost 20 years later, and I think the scar is not properly healed, that we don't know the full truth, and that it surely changed Spain.

What do you think would have happened if the attacks don't happen, or, say, happen after the general elections (March 14)?

 

[tonsofun]

From what I remember, it is believed that this event led to the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) winning the election three days later. I think a lot of people blamed the ruling People's Party for this bombing due to their support for the invasion of Iraq. According to Wikipedia, this event led to one million people switching to the PSOE and another one million and seven thousand people who normally don't vote, did vote that day.
Without this event, the PP probably stay in power and Spain won't withdraw from Iraq. I'm not really knowledgeable on the Iraq war though, so I don't know how this will affect it. But it is certain that the event changed how a lot of people saw the Iraq war and probably the war on terror as a whole.

 

[carlosperezesp]

From what I remember, it is believed that this event led to the Spanish Socialist Workers Party (PSOE) winning the election three days later. I think a lot of people blamed the ruling People's Party for this bombing due to their support for the invasion of Iraq. According to Wikipedia, this event led to one million people switching to the PSOE and another one million and seven thousand people who normally don't vote, did vote that day.
Without this event, the PP probably stay in power and Spain won't withdraw from Iraq. I'm not really knowledgeable on the Iraq war though, so I don't know how this will affect it. But it is certain that the event changed how a lot of people saw the Iraq war and probably the war on terror as a whole.

I also feel the same in the short term. PP wins comfortably if the attack doesn't happen. What I wonder is what would've happened in the long term. I think Spain entered in a new era, because ETA (the biggest terrorist problem in Spain until then) benefited from the events in the long term. And also, I feel there is a lot of political polarisation and radical debates that started (or became bigger) with that event. My guess is, if the attacks don't happen, we would've seen a coalition PP-PSOE at some point in the 2010s to dismantle ETA together and also to prevent the smaller, new parties that were born around that time, became bigger.

 

[tonsofun]

Well from what I can find online, the Spanish presence in Iraq was about 1300 troops which was part of the Brigada Hispanoamericana (Dominica Republic, El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua) whom contributed another 1200. Which makes roughly 2500 which is a fair size number. If they stayed, then casualties would eventually happen and according to Jose Luis Rodriguez Zapatero (whom I will refer to as JLRZ from now on) the Spanish public didn't approve of the involvement which could suggest that the Spanish public may become very vocal if a few casualties occur. This could see a later withdrawal, especially since JLRZ made withdrawing from Iraq part of his manifesto. I can guarantee he won't shut up because the casualties will vindicate his position and I think a lot of people will agree with him on that.
Now according to previous foreign minister Jose Manuel Garcia Margallo, the opposite is true. But I'm not Spanish so I can't comment on that. You might want to ask a few relatives how they felt about it at the time. Then again, any government that starts something like that can't just go back on it because it doesn't go to plan. That would be political suicide.