Spain's accession to the North Atlantic Treaty was rather fraught. There was widespread discussion of Madrid joining since the late 1970s, and Adolfo Suarez's government had already declared it a priority. The change in leadership and Calvo Sotello's rise significantly changed the debate, from it being a general goal to the government taking concrete steps and it actually joining before the 1982 election. One of the arguments used was that it would bolster political control over the military. Come the elections, the victorious socialists had campaigned on a referendum on NATO membership, with the PSOE being in favour of withdrawal, as was the PCE obviously. After their election victory, many socialists continued to support withdrawal, and in 1984 a large demonstration against the alliance was organised by the PCE with many socialists taking part. However, the prime minister Felipe Gonzalez was having second thoughts, and kept delaying the referendum, only to have it happen in the summer of 1986, with him and his government being in favour of a continued but limited membership of NATO. The people backed him, with 56% voting to remain in NATO.
What if, for one reason or the other, the referendum had happened earlier, with the Socialists being firmly against membership? It could have happened in 1983 or 1984 or 1985, whichever year is best and makes the change most likely. It stands to reason that with the government not campaigning cautiously in favour of NATO, but firmly against it, the 56/44 result could have changed, since neutralist opinion in Spain was strong. Let's say that the spaniards vote to leave. How would this play out?
Would their departure from the alliance cause any troubles with the military? How would the US under Reagan respond? How would this play out in the rest of Europe? At the time, Portugal was still slowly getting out of its revolutionary phase, and up until 1985, the socialists played a crucial part in the governing process. Socialists led the governments of Greece, France and Italy, and at least as far as Greece is concerned, there was a large and organised campaign to leave NATo; Spain leaving would probably put pressure on Papandreou's government to actually make good on its election promises made back in 1981, or organise a referendum as well.
How would this go down in Spain itself? From what I understand, part of the argument was that it was a "natural" part of Spain joining the "West", the defence and security arm of joining the EEC and being once again part of world developments. Would this be as strong in a scenario where the majority of the people would have voted to leave? Would later governments, probably led by the PP, attempt to rejoin? It's likely that as with many other neutral states in Europe, Spain would later join the Partnership for Peace program, and since it's surrounded by NATO countries, it would be difficult to imagine a Spain not generally aligned with the US, if all else stays the same. Would it though? How would this change perceptions of Gonzalez's governments? Would there even be as strong a push to join the alliance once the Warsaw Pact comes tumbling down in the early 1990s?
What if, for one reason or the other, the referendum had happened earlier, with the Socialists being firmly against membership? It could have happened in 1983 or 1984 or 1985, whichever year is best and makes the change most likely. It stands to reason that with the government not campaigning cautiously in favour of NATO, but firmly against it, the 56/44 result could have changed, since neutralist opinion in Spain was strong. Let's say that the spaniards vote to leave. How would this play out?
Would their departure from the alliance cause any troubles with the military? How would the US under Reagan respond? How would this play out in the rest of Europe? At the time, Portugal was still slowly getting out of its revolutionary phase, and up until 1985, the socialists played a crucial part in the governing process. Socialists led the governments of Greece, France and Italy, and at least as far as Greece is concerned, there was a large and organised campaign to leave NATo; Spain leaving would probably put pressure on Papandreou's government to actually make good on its election promises made back in 1981, or organise a referendum as well.
How would this go down in Spain itself? From what I understand, part of the argument was that it was a "natural" part of Spain joining the "West", the defence and security arm of joining the EEC and being once again part of world developments. Would this be as strong in a scenario where the majority of the people would have voted to leave? Would later governments, probably led by the PP, attempt to rejoin? It's likely that as with many other neutral states in Europe, Spain would later join the Partnership for Peace program, and since it's surrounded by NATO countries, it would be difficult to imagine a Spain not generally aligned with the US, if all else stays the same. Would it though? How would this change perceptions of Gonzalez's governments? Would there even be as strong a push to join the alliance once the Warsaw Pact comes tumbling down in the early 1990s?