Spain sells Philippines to Japan in 1896 - impacts on World War II(and 20th century)

[paulpskordilis]

According to the Spanish diplomat F.E. Reynoso, in 1894 the Japanese offered to buy the Philippines from Spain for 40 million pounds sterling. However, according to Reynoso this offer was not accepted.[20] According to the scholar C.E. Russell, in 1896 Spain was rumoured to have offered to sell the islands to Japan for $3,000,000 gold dollars, but this offer was rejected.[21]

Japan–Philippines relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

OK, technically pre-1900 POD, but most of this scenario is set in the 20th century.

Let's say that Japan accepts Spain's 1896 counter-offer and buys the entire Spanish East Indies for slightly above the aforementioned price. If so, what would its impacts on the wider 20th century be? For the one, the Philippines, Guam and Wake will all be in Japanese hands from the start of World War II here(along with conquered French Indochina) and with the Spanish-American War confined to Cuba, the British are much more likely to successfully press their claim to Eastern Samoa.

 

[paulpskordilis]

Of course, without the Philippines, Guam, Wake and probably Samoa, the prospect of the Americans intervening in the conquest of the 'Southern Resources Area' would have been about as real, as, say, FDR sending American troops to fight in Leningrad and Moscow.

 

[Nivek]

According to the Spanish diplomat F.E. Reynoso, in 1894 the Japanese offered to buy the Philippines from Spain for 40 million pounds sterling. However, according to Reynoso this offer was not accepted.[20] According to the scholar C.E. Russell, in 1896 Spain was rumoured to have offered to sell the islands to Japan for $3,000,000 gold dollars, but this offer was rejected.[21]

Japan–Philippines relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

OK, technically pre-1900 POD, but most of this scenario is set in the 20th century.

Let's say that Japan accepts Spain's 1896 counter-offer and buys the entire Spanish East Indies for slightly above the aforementioned price. If so, what would its impacts on the wider 20th century be? For the one, the Philippines, Guam and Wake will all be in Japanese hands from the start of World War II here(along with conquered French Indochina) and with the Spanish-American War confined to Cuba, the British are much more likely to successfully press their claim to Eastern Samoa.

Well with rubber In Philippines that is an extra resource for the japanese, oil still is a pressure unless this also butterfly away the embargo? It could also butterfly away the Nazi japanese alliance as Britain might put more feeler for Japan

 

[walmart]

This changes both the Russo-Japanese and Sino-Japanese wars

 

[Melvin Spivak]

According to the Spanish diplomat F.E. Reynoso, in 1894 the Japanese offered to buy the Philippines from Spain for 40 million pounds sterling. However, according to Reynoso this offer was not accepted.[20] According to the scholar C.E. Russell, in 1896 Spain was rumoured to have offered to sell the islands to Japan for $3,000,000 gold dollars, but this offer was rejected.[21]

Japan–Philippines relations - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

OK, technically pre-1900 POD, but most of this scenario is set in the 20th century.

Let's say that Japan accepts Spain's 1896 counter-offer and buys the entire Spanish East Indies for slightly above the aforementioned price. If so, what would its impacts on the wider 20th century be? For the one, the Philippines, Guam and Wake will all be in Japanese hands from the start of World War II here(along with conquered French Indochina) and with the Spanish-American War confined to Cuba, the British are much more likely to successfully press their claim to Eastern Samoa.

The butterflies here almost certainly prevent ww2 taking place at least in any recognisable form

 

[paulpskordilis]

Well with rubber In Philippines that is an extra resource for the japanese, oil still is a pressure unless this also butterfly away the embargo? It could also butterfly away the Nazi japanese alliance as Britain might put more feeler for Japan

Incidentally, there being no threat to US territory here would have strengthened America First isolationism. Taft or Vandenburg in 1940?

This changes both the Russo-Japanese and Sino-Japanese wars

Maybe Japan gets *all* of Karafuto?

The butterflies here almost certainly prevent ww2 taking place at least in any recognisable form

We've had a couple of threads on Tsar Nicholas fleeing to Alaska after the revolution in a world where it wasn't sold.

 

[raharris1973]

For the one, the Philippines, Guam and Wake will all be in Japanese hands from the start of World War II

The Philippines and Guam were both Spanish, but Wake was not. Wake was acquired by the US separately.

with the Spanish-American War confined to Cuba, the British are much more likely to successfully press their claim to Eastern Samoa.

The US role in the Tripartite Condominium with Britain and German over Samoa predates the Spanish-American war by a decade, going back to 1889. Changes to the Spanish Empire and Spanish-American War are unlikely to affect the Anglo-American-German settlement over Samoa (and parallel Anglo-German settlements over the Solomons). Nevertheless, Samoa, in the southern hemisphere, is nowhere near 'sticking in Japan's grill', it is closer to New Zealand than Japan.

And what is the pound sterling and gold dollar exchange rate at this time?

Well with rubber In Philippines that is an extra resource for the japanese, oil still is a pressure

From the Philippines, it is not that long a grab for Dutch East Indies oil.

 

[paulpskordilis]

The Philippines and Guam were both Spanish, but Wake was not. Wake was acquired by the US separately.

Wake was acquired to provide a coaling/telegraph cable station to Guam and the Philippines. Without such an impetus, it would probably have been acquired by Germany.(at least until it loses WWI)

The US role in the Tripartite Condominium with Britain and German over Samoa predates the Spanish-American war by a decade, going back to 1889. Changes to the Spanish Empire and Spanish-American War are unlikely to affect the Anglo-American-German settlement over Samoa (and parallel Anglo-German settlements over the Solomons). Nevertheless, Samoa, in the southern hemisphere, is nowhere near 'sticking in Japan's grill', it is closer to New Zealand than Japan.

And what is the pound sterling and gold dollar exchange rate at this time?

Prominent Republicans, e.g. Harrison, supported annexing Hawaii(largely a fait accompli by 1898) but opposed the acquisition of 'eastern' islands. Had US interest in expansion in the Pacific not piqued as a result of the S-A war, Samoa would be seen as a proverbial 'bridge to nowhere'.(at least Midway had guano and was part of the Hawaiian Islands)

From the Philippines, it is not that long a grab for Dutch East Indies oil.

One important difference: Jolo, not Truk, would be the HQ of the Combined Fleet.

 

[Fratsup]

This would see Japan increasingly come into conflict with Germany as the acquiring of European territory will not be taken well by the Asian-phobic Germany. If anything I see Japan and Germany entering a war.

Outside of that there might be a greater tension between Japan and Britain as Japan now owns a place close to British interest which would not be taken well. We might not see an alliance between Japan and Britain but this really depends if they see Japan as a threat or not.

 

[walmart]

Maybe Japan gets *all* of Karafuto?

The Philippines were a poor rebellious tropical nightmare. If anything the Japanese will have less to throw at the Russians and Chinese.

 

[Nivek]

This would see Japan increasingly come into conflict with Germany as the acquiring of European territory will not be taken well by the Asian-phobic Germany. If anything I see Japan and Germany entering a war.

Outside of that there might be a greater tension between Japan and Britain as Japan now owns a place close to British interest which would not be taken well. We might not see an alliance between Japan and Britain but this really depends if they see Japan as a threat or not.

I can see Germany gunning for Formosa. Maybe helping the Qing during the sino japanese war?

 

[Fratsup]

The Philippines were a poor rebellious tropical nightmare. If anything the Japanese will have less to throw at the Russians and Chinese.

I mean as long as the Filipinos do not get sea access they are limited on their resistance which would allow Japan to wear them down like the US did OTL.

can see Germany gunning for Formosa. Maybe helping the Qing during the sino japanese war?

Unlikely since its a bit to soon for the Germans to take over although they might try to support the Qing. Things will become interesting during the Boxer rebellion assuming it even happens since Germany might actually get some reform going in China.

 

[walmart]

I mean as long as the Filipinos do not get sea access they are limited on their resistance which would allow Japan to wear them down like the US did OTL.

yes but Japan is weaker than the United States and would be in far less of a condition to fight either China or Russia while bogged down dealing with the Filipinos.

 

[Sekhmet_D]

The Philippines were a poor rebellious tropical nightmare. If anything the Japanese will have less to throw at the Russians and Chinese.

I mean as long as the Filipinos do not get sea access they are limited on their resistance which would allow Japan to wear them down like the US did OTL.

yes but Japan is weaker than the United States and would be in far less of a condition to fight either China or Russia while bogged down dealing with the Filipinos.

This is of course assuming there is any Filipino resistance at all. For all we know there may be none whatsoever in this scenario.

 

[Nivek]

Unlikely since its a bit to soon for the Germans to take over although they might try to support the Qing. Things will become interesting during the Boxer rebellion assuming it even happens

That was a reaction to losing the sino japanese war and the failed reforms

 

[Napoleone the Kiwi]

This is of course assuming there is any Filipino resistance at all. For all we know there may be none whatsoever in this scenario.

Uh the Filipino independence movement was already working in secret. They were caught and started a revolution the year of the sale ITTL. Unless the Japanese immediately grants support to the creation of a Filipino government, they’re going to be fighting an armed revolt across the entire archipelago. Japan can ill-afford this.

 

[Hayatgheibi]

The butterflies here almost certainly prevent ww2 taking place at least in any recognisable form

I keep hearing the logic that if Japan had a little more land, they wouldn’t have started wars for conquest. But tbh they probably would’ve wanted more land regardless, it’s never enough for resource-hungry dictators. Look at Hitler.

 

[TheSpectacledCloth]

Uh the Filipino independence movement was already working in secret. They were caught and started a revolution the year of the sale ITTL. Unless the Japanese immediately grants support to the creation of a Filipino government, they’re going to be fighting an armed revolt across the entire archipelago. Japan can ill-afford this.

The Japanese could have potentially allowed for some level of autonomy in the Philippines, out of necessity more than anything.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

The last paragraph of the OP.

Let's say that Japan accepts Spain's 1896 counter-offer and buys the entire Spanish East Indies for slightly above the aforementioned price. If so, what would its impacts on the wider 20th century be? For the one, the Philippines, Guam and Wake will all be in Japanese hands from the start of World War II here(along with conquered French Indochina) and with the Spanish-American War confined to Cuba, the British are much more likely to successfully press their claim to Eastern Samoa.

Part of Post 7.

From the Philippines, it is not that long a grab for Dutch East Indies oil.

And the oil in British Borneo.

IOTL Spain sold what was left of the Spanish East Indies to Germany in 1899 which added it to German New Guinea (which included the Marshall Islands and Naru as well as the north east of New Guinea and Bougainville). Australia got Bougainville, the north east of New Guinea and Naru in the Treaty of Versailles while Japan got the Marshall Islands plus the territory Spain sold to Germany in 1899.

ITTL Spain sold the whole Spanish East Indies to Japan in 1896, which if World War One still happens (and I think it will) means it's not that long a grab for Bougainville, the north east of New Guinea and Naru too. Therefore, I think there's a good chance that Japan would get these territories in the TTL version of the Treaty of Versailles instead of Australia.

If World War II still happens then it's not that long a grab for Papua and the British Solomon Islands. However, the Australians & British are likely to have strengthened the defences of those places between the wars and for that matter the British & Dutch would have strengthened the defences of their East Indian territories between the wars too. However, after taking that into account the Japanese would still have been in a stronger position than OTL and the Australians, British and Dutch would have been in a weaker one than OTL.

 

[NOMISYRRUC]

This changes both the Russo-Japanese and Sino-Japanese wars

Which Sino-Japanese War? Because the first one ended on 17 April 1895 which is the year before the TTL sale of the Spanish East Indies to Japan.

That being written, could Japan have afforded the expansion of its navy that took place 1896-1904 IOTL if it bought the Spanish East Indies in 1896 ITTL? Because if it couldn't that would change the Russo-Japanese War of 1904-05.

I can see Germany gunning for Formosa. Maybe helping the Qing during the Sino-Japanese war?

I don't see how Japan buying the Spanish East Indies in 1896 ITTL leads to either of the above, because the First Sino-Japanese War ended in 1895 and Japanese occupied Formosa in 1895. Having written that, if Germany did gun for Formosa from 1896, Japan might retaliate by gunning for the German New Guinea, which included Bougainville, the Marshall Islands and Naru as well as the north east of New Guinea itself.