Spain circa 1590-1610 how to undo CF

[elkarlo]

How wold late 1500's Spain be able to avoid the abyss that they are about to march into?
So many problems.
Dutch wars.
Terrible tax burden in Castille.
No industry in Iberia.
Lazy and worthless nobility that was busy mooching.
No building of any transportation networks in Iberia, in fact it was regressing.


Just curious, as how Spain got a golden goose, and it ended up messing them up, so much so that the were in decline most the time until really WWIIish.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

Don't forget silver and gold hyper inflation when you're at it.

 

[elkarlo]

Don't forget silver and gold hyper inflation when you're at it.

True dat. But I am reading this Imperial Spain: 1469-1716 by JH Elliot. It was silver that did it. The Americas only increased the gold supply in Europe by 20-25% from 1520-1620.

 

[MerryPrankster]

Abandon all attempts to overturn the Reformation and spend the money at home?

Or perhaps allow the nobles to fight abroad if they want to--war was their profession and actually doing anything else was dishonorable to them--but keep the Spanish state out of it.

Letting the Dutch go in exchange for a face-saving payment of $$ or Spanish ships being allowed to use Dutch ports or something might be a good idea too.

 

[elkarlo]

Abandon all attempts to overturn the Reformation and spend the money at home?

Or perhaps allow the nobles to fight abroad if they want to--war was their profession and actually doing anything else was dishonorable to them--but keep the Spanish state out of it.

Letting the Dutch go in exchange for a face-saving payment of $$ or Spanish ships being allowed to use Dutch ports or something might be a good idea too.

Yeah even at their best c1590, the Spanish were never close to subduing the Dutch. A super long Vietnam and Afghanistan times 3.

Also not being at war with everyone would've been nice.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Yeah even at their best c1590, the Spanish were never close to subduing the Dutch. A super long Vietnam and Afghanistan times 3.

Also not being at war with everyone would've been nice.

hey now the Spanish were winning the Eighty years war against the Dutch initially. I'm sure had France and the other powers not intervened Spain could have crushed the Dutch revolt Right.

Just have Alexander Farnese duke of Parma win a complete victory IMO of the french, German hugenots, and the British had not intervened The Dutch would Be in major trouble. In otl the duke of Parma brought to heel nearly all the provinces and led crushing victories against orange.

 

[Antipater]

I think Spain could have sat out the French Wars of Religion without really endangering the national interest. This would have saved the Spanish Crown loads of gold that could be used to fight the Dutch. Plus it would not allow the Dutch a respite from Parma's relentless advance into Friesland.

Putting down the Dutch revolt was the key challenge to Spain's foreign policy, and might have been accomplished if Spain had not lost so many troops and ships in its unsucessful invasion of England. Keeping Alexander Farnese alive for another decade or so could allow the Army of Flanders to maintain momentum and allow the Spanish to roll up the Dutch while the French were distracted and the English mostly apathetic.

Spain's problems were not just military. Its economy was far too statist, and the Crown scarcely allowed any sort of economic freedom to its subjects. At a time when the English and the Dutch were forming the first great corporations which would ad a great deal of wealth to their respective countries, the Spanish Crown tightly controlled all international trade. Well into the 18th century they only allowed a single galleon to carry trade from Manilla when a fleet of galleons would have been more appropriate. A Compania de los Indios would have been quite helpful. They could also have encouraged/allowed emmigration from Southern Italy to the new world, Naples and Sicily were economic backwaters, contributing little to the Empire other than a few notable missionaries.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

I think Spain could have sat out the French Wars of Religion without really endangering the national interest. This would have saved the Spanish Crown loads of gold that could be used to fight the Dutch. Plus it would not allow the Dutch a respite from Parma's relentless advance into Friesland.

Putting down the Dutch revolt was the key challenge to Spain's foreign policy, and might have been accomplished if Spain had not lost so many troops and ships in its unsucessful invasion of England. Keeping Alexander Farnese alive for another decade or so could allow the Army of Flanders to maintain momentum and allow the Spanish to roll up the Dutch while the French were distracted and the English mostly apathetic.
Spain's problems were not just military. Its economy was far too statist, and the Crown scarcely allowed any sort of economic freedom to its subjects. At a time when the English and the Dutch were forming the first great corporations which would ad a greatdeal of wealth to their respective countries, the Spanish Crown tightly controlled all international trade. A Compania de los Indios would have been quite helpful. They could also have encouraged/allowed emmigration from Southern Italy to the new world, Naples and Sicily were economic backwaters, contributing little to the Empire other than a few notable missionaries.

I agree Spain had problems but it could have put Down the dutch revolt in fact the Duke of parma took Antwerp so had He stayed in the neitherlands he would easily defeat William IMO.

 

[Sandmannius]

I agree Spain had problems but it could have put Down the dutch revolt in fact the Duke of parma took Antwerp so had He stayed in the neitherlands he would easily defeat William IMO.

I'm not going to go into detail, but Dutch independence was inevitable, due to many factors.

 

[Antipater]

I'm not going to go into detail, but Dutch independence was inevitable, due to many factors.

Please do. Present Day Belgium was mostly Protestant at the start of the rebellion, following Spanish military success they migrated North. Greater Spanish military could have caused the same in the North; the hardcore Calvinists would have fled towards Germany or Switzerland. Granted Spain would have had a hard time maintaining its hold on the Low Countries, being difficult to supply and hold, especially if Spain lacked naval supremacy. But the Low Countries were the wealthiest part of Europe at this point, and whomever ended up living there after a Spanish reconquest would have produced enough taxes to pay for their country's defense.

Same situation with the French Hughenots. Following a victory by the Catholic central government, Hughenots mostly chose to flee. Like the Spanish, the French could not prevent their leaving, but they could hold their former home territories. Protestantism was not impossible to eradicate, just demographically and economically costly.

 

[Gustavus Adolphus]

Please do. Present Day Belgium was mostly Protestant at the start of the rebellion, following Spanish military success they migrated North. Greater Spanish military could have caused the same in the North; the hardcore Calvinists would have fled towards Germany or Switzerland. Granted Spain would have had a hard time maintaining its hold on the Low Countries, being difficult to supply and hold, especially if Spain lacked naval supremacy. But the Low Countries were the wealthiest part of Europe at this point, and whomever ended up living there after a Spanish reconquest would have produced enough taxes to pay for their country's defense.

Same situation with the French Hughenots. Following a victory by the Catholic central government, Hughenots mostly chose to flee. Like the Spanish, the French could not prevent their leaving, but they could hold their former home territories. Protestantism was not impossible to eradicate, just demographically and economically costly.

Oh ok now I get it. So even if Spain won the eighty year war some time later the revolt of the Dutch is invetable. I see. Srry about my mistake.

 

[Mikestone8]

Arrange fatal accident for Philip III before Philip IV is born.

That transfers throne to the decendants of Philip II's third (and least incestuous) marriage, with Elizabeth of Valois. So you get Isabella II until 1633, and then the House of Savoy. I don't know much about the latter, but anything has to be an improvement on Philips III and IV and Carlos II.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Arrange fatal accident for Philip III before Philip IV is born.

That transfers throne to the decendants of Philip II's third (and least incestuous) marriage, with Elizabeth of Valois. So you get Isabella II until 1633, and then the House of Savoy. I don't know much about the latter, but anything has to be an improvement on Philips III and IV and Carlos II.

Not hard to do when your pedigree gets increasingly inbred with each succeeding generation (and when you have Juana the Mad as an ancestor).

 

[Sandmannius]

Oh ok now I get it. So even if Spain won the eighty year war some time later the revolt of the Dutch is invetable. I see. Srry about my mistake.

There's nothing to be sorry about dude, no mistake made, we have no idea what would of happened if things went differently, we can only make educated guesses.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

The Dutch revolt was inevitable once the Caroline Habsburgs went Spanish.

 

[Fed]

How wold late 1500's Spain be able to avoid the abyss that they are about to march into?
So many problems.
Dutch wars.
Terrible tax burden in Castille.
No industry in Iberia.
Lazy and worthless nobility that was busy mooching.
No building of any transportation networks in Iberia, in fact it was regressing.


Just curious, as how Spain got a golden goose, and it ended up messing them up, so much so that the were in decline most the time until really WWIIish.

Maybe mantaining the Portuguese-Spanish Union and then stopping interbreeding so that there were more capable leaders. Eventually, Spain's treasury would fill with Portuguese commerce and slave labour and it could have recovered from the decline it had started.

 

[DrakeRlugia]

Maybe mantaining the Portuguese-Spanish Union and then stopping interbreeding so that there were more capable leaders. Eventually, Spain's treasury would fill with Portuguese commerce and slave labour and it could have recovered from the decline it had started.

The Spanish ruled Portugal for 60 years and it was no improvement on their fortunes. This is because the union was pretty decentralized; Philip II took the Portuguese throne but the Portuguese were allowed to maintain their own government. Portugal didn't contribute much to Spanish coffers because of the tax burden mentioned in the first post: Castille provided around 60% of the Spanish budget while Aragon and Portugal provided the rest. I believe the Portuguese revolt in 1640 originated when the Spanish attempted to increase amount of money Portugal contributed. They also experienced revolts at the same time in Catalonia and Naples.

 

[Fearless Leader]

Having Miguel da Paz wiki survive might be a good start. Unifying the Iberian kingdoms under an Iberian house could very well keep Spain out of Europe's religious wars for the most part and let them focus on the New World.

 

[HJ Tulp]

hey now the Spanish were winning the Eighty years war against the Dutch initially. I'm sure had France and the other powers not intervened Spain could have crushed the Dutch revolt Right.

Just have Alexander Farnese duke of Parma win a complete victory IMO of the french, German hugenots, and the British had not intervened The Dutch would Be in major trouble. In otl the duke of Parma brought to heel nearly all the provinces and led crushing victories against orange.

To be honest foreign intervention was never really influential during the Dutch Revolt. What did influence the outcome was PII continious involvement in things other then the Dutch Revolt: French Religion War, 30-years War, the Armada. You also have to consider the nature of warfare during the Dutch Revolt: few deciding battles, continious siege-warfare. This makes it almost inevitable that at a certain point the Tercios will be necessary somewhere else.

 

[SavoyTruffle]

Having Miguel da Paz wiki survive might be a good start. Unifying the Iberian kingdoms under an Iberian house could very well keep Spain out of Europe's religious wars for the most part and let them focus on the New World.

It wouldn't completely remove them from European politics, true, but at least they don't have the growing net negatives of the Low Countries with them.