Spain breaking apart

Good Habit

Long Term effects of a changed Spanish Civil War?

It's very unlikely that a mostly victorious Republican Spain would just result in the same Cold War as OTL, just with a few additional partners!

If a civil war is mostly about the desire of a region to seceede, they might win if the central government collapses or just becomes to tired of the entiry effort and thus pulls the plug.
If, OTOH, both parties try to get control over the entire country, a ceasefire and hence division is very unlikely, unless foreign powers step in, or the defeated party holds to a part of the country that the other can't take due to geography. (e.g. Taiwan).
This is unlikely in the case of Spain (a defeated Franco holding on to the Canary Island and the Balearics + Spanish Morocco might be a possiblity, but that's about it.).So if the republicans win - say in 1938 - and are mostly communist controlled by then, this would chance the European situation during the lead up to WWII quite a bit...

If Hitler still invades Austria and the Sudentenland on schedule - may be..
Does he still occupy the czech rump state in spring 1939? Already less certain - How would France and Britain have reacted to a sucessful republican Spain - is it a new ally - or a new threat? Depending on their perception, they might follow a harder line against Hitler - may be as early as no Munich - or they might decide that the emerging alliance of 'Soviet Russia and Soviet Spain' (as many might claim) is the bigger threat than the Nazis, and therefore there is no guarantee to Poland.
The start of the war on September 1, 1939, with the same alignement as OTL, is in no way certain, and from here, many later changes would follow.
 

Karlos

In 1936, the communists were only another party in the republic. But in 1938-39, they were the ones that controlled the army (the only ones able to make an army, actually, from the array of militias) and the only real military help came from Stalin. So, a victorious republic in 1939 has a lot of chances of beign a communist one. To change that you need military help from the western powers.
Of course a different SCW outcome changes WWII. Even if everything goes as in OTL until 1941, How can Hitler attack the USSR levaing a Stalin's ally behind his lines? And if he attacks Spain first (say instead of Yugoslavia), would not Stalin be ready then for war?
Franco's victory was not a given thing. The republicans had more industrial resources and manpower for a lot of time. They also had better planes and tanks (from the USSR) than the fascists up until 1938, not to mention most of the navy. What they lacked was coordination, unity and professional officers.
 

Strategos' Risk

Republican Spain with Russian Civil War veterans-

Trotsky and Makhno as well as other lefty members of the Russian Civil War go to Spain, get involved in local politics, and end up nearing killing each other quite a lot. Trotsky's leadership gets a decidedly non-Stalinist communist regime up, while Makhno's influence strengthens anarchism in Catalonia. Long story short, Franco's rise kills the lot of them or sends them packing, and Hitler later supports him during WWII. Spain is somehow intervened upon at some point, Franco is kicked out, a lefty constitutional monarchy government is placed in Madrid by the Allies, and Catalonia is made into a haven of anarchists, with Basque as part of it in an autonomous zone.

Too wacky?
 

Karlos

Stalin's agents and spanish communists, as in OTL, would have eliminated trostkyst-anarchist opposition in the republican territory. Even if they didn't, any governement installed by the allies after a war against Franco would do the same.
Euskadi and Catalonia have very little in common, except beign opressed by Madrid. It's much easier to have Catalonia into France, as we share a somehow similar language and a lot of historic events. That's why I see a french intervention during SCW as the only way to have an independent Catalonia, facing a communist Spain.
 
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