As most of us know, in OTL, the 1948 elections in South Africa saw the election of the National Party, who instituted Apartied (it can be argued that it already existed) and led the Unions dissolution in 1960. So, what if they lost and the more "Liberal" United Party under Jan Smuts (Who had eventual de-segregation in mind) wins. What does this mean for Africa and the World? Is Apartied now Prevented or simply delayed? Disscus.
South African WI: United Party wins 1948 elections?
- Thread starter Spitfiremk1
- Start date
Detroitman32
Banned
Most likely delayed. The NP comes to power sooner or later, but the time difference may lead to a less fully instituted apartheid, perhaps even no dissolution of the Union. If they are too hasty perhaps the struggle becomes violent.
Germaniac
Donor
Easy way to get this is for Southern Rhodesia to be accepted unto the Dominion. More British dependents mean a much more likely United Party Victory. Its not as rosy as some might think though. The United party were strong supporters of White-Minority rule, but a much softer stance on the Native populations
Detroitman32
Banned
Perhaps Bechuanaland can be coerced in, and the South-West Africa holds a referendum?
Bechuanaland was pretty much joined at the hip with South Africa until its independence. Them staying in the RSA might have a big impact, as Seretse Khama made a big impact on the ideas of Britain's lawmakers, a fact which horrendously pissed off the apartheid state and wound up with a bunch of egg on Clement Atlee's face in 1948-49. Having Bechuanaland be part of the RSA means that Khama now is influencing the government in Pretoria. Assuming the strict segregation of apartheid doesn't come to pass (The United Party had plenty of chances to do it in 1910-1948, never did), then you could probably have Khama play a role in the politics for the future.
As far as SWA goes, South Africa could have annexed it easily, but it would have to be long before SWAPO comes into the picture. That said, without the staunch segregation of apartheid, that might be easier for the world to accept. The two were effectively joined at the hip by 1960, and that state exists to this day.
Rhodesia is harder, simply due to divisions. The whites of South Africa were divided between the Afrikaners and those of English-speaking descent (which includes the UK, Ireland, Australia, Canada and the USA), a divide that largely fueled South African politics. The Afrikaners would be very, VERY opposed to Southern Rhodesia being added to the RSA, which is why even if that referendum had passed in 1923, I can see the RSA trying to stall or take it easy on the integration of Southern Rhodesia, just so they didn't piss off the Afrikaners too much.
Now, assuming the United Party doesn't come to power in 1948 and you have the RSA absorbing the SWA and Bechuanaland, then the RSA has a dominant position in the world's strategic minerals market. Assuming the economic boom of the 1950-1975ish in the RSA goes ahead, then it would be added to when the diamonds of Jwaneng and the Namibian deposits are found. Few know that the unemployment of the RSA sank into the 5% ballpark by 1970. Now, that assumes that few women are in the workforce, which is the custom in both many of the black tribes and the Afrikaners. You'd likely have the same result here, if anything the wealth of the whites would be by the late 1960s start spreading to the other races.
Now, assuming the United Party stays in power in 1948 and Jan Smuts dies in 1950 as in OTL, the United Party would end up with a major division crisis, which would likely be added to by the likes of Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo and Seretse Khama. The Afrikaners would almost certainly demand a new leader who would take a harder line on racial relations, but this is unlikely - the Afrikaners primarily voted for the NP, so the United Party might take a easier line.
By the late 1950s, calls would start coming up for the first black members of the government. (They started showing up in the black British Empire colonies about this time.) Guys like Mandela, Khama, Tambo, Albert Luthuli, Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe would be at the front of this line. This would likely draw a rift between the Afrikaners and the Uitlanders.
Black government members grow in numbers in the 1960s. The fast growing economy of the country in the 1960s, including some big discoveries (Jwaneng was discovered in 1967 in OTL) provide more employment and hard currency for the RSA. Heavy industry has now started showing up in mass amounts in the RSA. At the time, many of the laws that kept black people down specifically would start getting repealed. The ANC is at the forefront of this, and without the massacre at Sharpeville (which is much less likely in this TL) and the beginnings of Umkhonto we Sizwe, the racial peace is much clearer.
The United Party is likely to keep immigration going strong. The National Party was more concerned with diluting the Afrikaner base than with immigration, which means that plenty of immigrants land in the RSA in the 1950s and 1960s, many from the British Isles. As the black African states become independent in growing number through the 1950s and 1960s, many immigrants would come from there. The end of white rule in Congo and Kenya has a major impact on the RSA's politics, as the nation, while not finally starting to accept blacks in politics, is stridently, almost viciously, anti-communist.
By 1970, The RSA's white populations live by first world standards, and a growing number of educated black Africans are also entering that lifestyle. The last laws on real division of the races are by now dying away. Laws with regards to voting would probably spread to those with certain levels of education, which results in a major growth in the number of voting-eligible blacks who begin exerting influence by the mid to late 1970s. And without the sanctions and wars in Angola or the Bush Wars, there is more money for the RSA to have on economic development. Portugal's give up of Angola and Mozambique in 1975 results in some 350,000 new arrivals from the Portuguese colonies. The newest arrivals, owing to the extreme distaste of communism, come from parts of Eastern Europe.
By 1980, blacks are 40% of the voters, a number expected to hit 80% by 1995. Despite this, white immigration continues. The RSA's white population tops 6 million in 1980, and is anticipated to top 7.5 million by 2000. While the education and social systems are still very unequal, that is improving rapidly. The "South African Industrial Heartland" stretches out in all directions from Pretoria, including the mines and factories of the Witwatersrand, and the mines of southern Botswana, and stretching north through the towns and cities such as Pietersburg, Beitbridge, Bulawayo, Gweru and Salisbury. By now, suffrage has encompassed virtually the entire Indian and Colored populations. In fact, the Indian population is growing as people come to the RSA from India.
The United Party finally loses power to the ANC in 1986, after the longest uninterrupted reign in a modern democratic state with real and fair elections. The RSA is ardently anti-communist, to the level of being a major ally in the Southern Hemisphere for the western powers. The ANC, which has always fought for universal suffrage, advocates a rework of the constitution to allow for universal suffrage, gets its wish in 1990. The 1992 South African elections are the first universal suffrage elections. The ANC wins, but the UP provides a strong showing - helped by a large number of black candidates and the South African blacks being a lot less uncomfortable with the idea of white members of government.
Despite universal suffrage, the white lion isn't done yet. The collapse of the USSR sees a new wave of white immigration hit the RSA. True to form, the white population of South Africa hits 7.5 million in 1995.
2009 South Africa is by far the most prosperous place on the continent, a fact which provides both benefits and problems. The RSA faces major problems with illegal immigration, most notably from civil war torn Mozambique and Angola. The RSA has a $1.24 Trillion economy for a country of 64 million people, which puts it on an equal footing with many nations of the West. This includes 7.8 million whites, 4.2 million coloreds and 1.6 million Indians. Black Africans are the overwhelming majority, of course, but the blacks of the RSA live better than any other African nations by far. The smartest ones at first world standards.
As far as SWA goes, South Africa could have annexed it easily, but it would have to be long before SWAPO comes into the picture. That said, without the staunch segregation of apartheid, that might be easier for the world to accept. The two were effectively joined at the hip by 1960, and that state exists to this day.
Rhodesia is harder, simply due to divisions. The whites of South Africa were divided between the Afrikaners and those of English-speaking descent (which includes the UK, Ireland, Australia, Canada and the USA), a divide that largely fueled South African politics. The Afrikaners would be very, VERY opposed to Southern Rhodesia being added to the RSA, which is why even if that referendum had passed in 1923, I can see the RSA trying to stall or take it easy on the integration of Southern Rhodesia, just so they didn't piss off the Afrikaners too much.
Now, assuming the United Party doesn't come to power in 1948 and you have the RSA absorbing the SWA and Bechuanaland, then the RSA has a dominant position in the world's strategic minerals market. Assuming the economic boom of the 1950-1975ish in the RSA goes ahead, then it would be added to when the diamonds of Jwaneng and the Namibian deposits are found. Few know that the unemployment of the RSA sank into the 5% ballpark by 1970. Now, that assumes that few women are in the workforce, which is the custom in both many of the black tribes and the Afrikaners. You'd likely have the same result here, if anything the wealth of the whites would be by the late 1960s start spreading to the other races.
Now, assuming the United Party stays in power in 1948 and Jan Smuts dies in 1950 as in OTL, the United Party would end up with a major division crisis, which would likely be added to by the likes of Nelson Mandela, Oliver Tambo and Seretse Khama. The Afrikaners would almost certainly demand a new leader who would take a harder line on racial relations, but this is unlikely - the Afrikaners primarily voted for the NP, so the United Party might take a easier line.
By the late 1950s, calls would start coming up for the first black members of the government. (They started showing up in the black British Empire colonies about this time.) Guys like Mandela, Khama, Tambo, Albert Luthuli, Joshua Nkomo and Robert Mugabe would be at the front of this line. This would likely draw a rift between the Afrikaners and the Uitlanders.
Black government members grow in numbers in the 1960s. The fast growing economy of the country in the 1960s, including some big discoveries (Jwaneng was discovered in 1967 in OTL) provide more employment and hard currency for the RSA. Heavy industry has now started showing up in mass amounts in the RSA. At the time, many of the laws that kept black people down specifically would start getting repealed. The ANC is at the forefront of this, and without the massacre at Sharpeville (which is much less likely in this TL) and the beginnings of Umkhonto we Sizwe, the racial peace is much clearer.
The United Party is likely to keep immigration going strong. The National Party was more concerned with diluting the Afrikaner base than with immigration, which means that plenty of immigrants land in the RSA in the 1950s and 1960s, many from the British Isles. As the black African states become independent in growing number through the 1950s and 1960s, many immigrants would come from there. The end of white rule in Congo and Kenya has a major impact on the RSA's politics, as the nation, while not finally starting to accept blacks in politics, is stridently, almost viciously, anti-communist.
By 1970, The RSA's white populations live by first world standards, and a growing number of educated black Africans are also entering that lifestyle. The last laws on real division of the races are by now dying away. Laws with regards to voting would probably spread to those with certain levels of education, which results in a major growth in the number of voting-eligible blacks who begin exerting influence by the mid to late 1970s. And without the sanctions and wars in Angola or the Bush Wars, there is more money for the RSA to have on economic development. Portugal's give up of Angola and Mozambique in 1975 results in some 350,000 new arrivals from the Portuguese colonies. The newest arrivals, owing to the extreme distaste of communism, come from parts of Eastern Europe.
By 1980, blacks are 40% of the voters, a number expected to hit 80% by 1995. Despite this, white immigration continues. The RSA's white population tops 6 million in 1980, and is anticipated to top 7.5 million by 2000. While the education and social systems are still very unequal, that is improving rapidly. The "South African Industrial Heartland" stretches out in all directions from Pretoria, including the mines and factories of the Witwatersrand, and the mines of southern Botswana, and stretching north through the towns and cities such as Pietersburg, Beitbridge, Bulawayo, Gweru and Salisbury. By now, suffrage has encompassed virtually the entire Indian and Colored populations. In fact, the Indian population is growing as people come to the RSA from India.
The United Party finally loses power to the ANC in 1986, after the longest uninterrupted reign in a modern democratic state with real and fair elections. The RSA is ardently anti-communist, to the level of being a major ally in the Southern Hemisphere for the western powers. The ANC, which has always fought for universal suffrage, advocates a rework of the constitution to allow for universal suffrage, gets its wish in 1990. The 1992 South African elections are the first universal suffrage elections. The ANC wins, but the UP provides a strong showing - helped by a large number of black candidates and the South African blacks being a lot less uncomfortable with the idea of white members of government.
Despite universal suffrage, the white lion isn't done yet. The collapse of the USSR sees a new wave of white immigration hit the RSA. True to form, the white population of South Africa hits 7.5 million in 1995.
2009 South Africa is by far the most prosperous place on the continent, a fact which provides both benefits and problems. The RSA faces major problems with illegal immigration, most notably from civil war torn Mozambique and Angola. The RSA has a $1.24 Trillion economy for a country of 64 million people, which puts it on an equal footing with many nations of the West. This includes 7.8 million whites, 4.2 million coloreds and 1.6 million Indians. Black Africans are the overwhelming majority, of course, but the blacks of the RSA live better than any other African nations by far. The smartest ones at first world standards.
TheMann,
Very good TL. It's a pity that didn't happen.
I did my undergrad thesis on the end of apartheid and South Africa under that government was basically a totalitarian state--they did population transfers and the like.
It wasn't "Jim Crow in Africa" (that would be Rhodesia). It was something much weirder and worse.
Very good TL. It's a pity that didn't happen.
I did my undergrad thesis on the end of apartheid and South Africa under that government was basically a totalitarian state--they did population transfers and the like.
It wasn't "Jim Crow in Africa" (that would be Rhodesia). It was something much weirder and worse.
In your TL, would SA get involved in the wars of the neighbors?
If SA is anti-Communist, I would imagine they'd be interested in keep the Communists from controlling Angola and Mozambique, even though the black population is richer and less oppressed and thus less vulnerable to Communist subversion.
Plus there are other things that could come up, like Biafra. In OTL, South Africa recognized Biafra, but that recognition did not mean a whole lot. In TTL, it might.
If SA is anti-Communist, I would imagine they'd be interested in keep the Communists from controlling Angola and Mozambique, even though the black population is richer and less oppressed and thus less vulnerable to Communist subversion.
Plus there are other things that could come up, like Biafra. In OTL, South Africa recognized Biafra, but that recognition did not mean a whole lot. In TTL, it might.
Neroon
Banned
They might find it useful to have a steady trickle of Blacks fleeing Communist regimes come to SA and tell stories about how life under native-ruled Communist African countries is.
Yes, but there's the risk that a native-Communist regime might go jihad on TTL's SA, which is still white-ruled even if it is more benign than the apartheid government.
It would be cheaper to fund UNITA/RENAMO-esque movements or conduct interventions when the victorious Communists are weak than face an outside invasion.
Indeed so. If it had happened, I may very well be one of those 7.8 million whites. My father was born in Salisbury, don't forget.
And I would wholeheartedly agree. Apartheid really did create a totalitarian state, ruled by a small number of people in the National Party, who were invariably Afrikaners. The architects of apartheid created it with a goal, the goal of making South Africa a white state for the Afrikaners. The others - Uitlander whites, coloreds, Indians, black Africans - were to many of them just usurpers on Afrikaner land.
I never thought of Smith-era Rhodesia as Jim Crow in Africa, but now that I think of it, it does make sense.
See below, my friend.
That's how I see it, too. South Africa wouldn't easily be able to keep FRELIMO out of power in Mozambique or the MPLA out of power in Angola, but they could make life difficult for them. Or alternately, they could easily shift gears and try to make Angola and Mozambique within South Africa's sphere. With the wealth of this SA, they could more easily pay off both nations to stay a moderate socialist position, and probably kill those that present a threat, too. And since this SA is not looked upon with such distaste, I have little doubt that investments would allow for Angola's oil to flow easily into the RSA, as its one of the few things that South Africa does not have an abundance of. Which move the RSA takes depends on the people in power inside the United Party and in Pretoria and Cape Town.
Zambia is in the same boat here, too, sharing a long land border (and a major hydroelectric dam) with South Africa, and with SA's industries being the likely primary destination for Zambian food and copper exports, the RSA would have a lot of influence over the politics of Zambia. Kenneth Kaunda was never a despot (compared to many of his neighbors, he's a damn saint), but he was a committed socialist and definitely soviet-leaning, which wouldn't sit well with Pretoria. He'd have to out of neccessity tone down the rhetoric.
I have little doubt that the RSA would intervene in some wars, the Congo especially. That would make life much easier for the people trying to work out the war in the Congo. And as this RSA is wealthier and is tsill living on the same unstable continent, I would expect a more powerful military. And without the hatred brought on by apartheid, I can see the US/UK looking at Pretoria as their reliable soldier in Africa. That means the SADF would probably gain such stuff as modern fighters (F-15s for air defense and Panavia Tornados for air to mud work), modern navy vessels (Type 42s or Spruance class destroyers, Perry class frigates) and good army gear. The apartheid-era SADF could easily hammer any opposition it could encounter on the African continent, here its just that much more so.
I see that as a possible. Biafra might hold a hope for the RSA simply because it will want to have the oil of Biafra. The Afrikaners will support the idea, simply because its Christians being murdered by Muslims. Direct RSA intervention I'd call as unlikely, but I can see lots of South African armaments going to Biafran forces, which would help them beat down the Nigerians and force open a way for Biafran oil to continue flowing. In return for the help (when nobody else would, as in OTL) Biafra would be a steadfast South African ally.
And you'd undoubtedly have that, but you'd also have people from the DRC and Somalia to counter that argument, saying how horrible western-backed dictators are. If anything, seeing how shitty the other African states are ruled would likely fuel both the anti-communism and the debate on how to work with the whites peacefully. After all, they got it right when all the rest of them got it wrong, so they must be doing something correctly, right?
Hmm, interesting, TheMann. Question: what would the role of the SABC be? Back in the apartheid era, it was basically a mouthpiece for the National Party. Would the United Party try to keep some distance between the SABC and the Party, transforming the SABC into a proper BBC-esque public broadcaster?
My basis for calling it "Jim Crow in Africa" was that it had segregation and most of the black population could not vote.
(I think a small number could, but not enough to matter)
Because the racism already existed. Only a few blacks in the Cape Province could vote, most couldn't. Apartheid wasn't all that contraversial until the end of colonization, when the West began to want black people to rule themselves. After Sharpeville and the violence that followed, people began to get unhappy with South Africa (fueled largely by the American civil rights movement and other such events) and by the time the Soweto Riots broke (July 1976), the world began to see apartheid as evil, at the same time as the whites of South Africa began to see that response and say "ya know what, we built this place, we ain't giving it up because you say so, so f--k you." Hence, the apartheid fight got very bitter in the 1980s.
Eurofed
Banned
Fine tL, the Mann. I agree with pretty much most of it. However, I think that Southern Rhodesia ought to join this SA. I would still use the vicory of union option in the 1920s referendum. If it had, when do you assume the union would happen ? 1950s? 1960s ?
Moreover, would the Soviets still try to intervene in the Angolan and Ethiopian civil wars (and possibly the Mozambican one and the Ogaden War) with their cuban proxies ? Could we see SADF exchanging blows with the Cubans at some point in the 1970s and 1980s ?
Another issue I'm wondering about is the nuclear deterrent. Would this RSA still pursue it, and if yes, would they keep it ?
Moreover, would the Soviets still try to intervene in the Angolan and Ethiopian civil wars (and possibly the Mozambican one and the Ogaden War) with their cuban proxies ? Could we see SADF exchanging blows with the Cubans at some point in the 1970s and 1980s ?
Another issue I'm wondering about is the nuclear deterrent. Would this RSA still pursue it, and if yes, would they keep it ?
1 - I assumed that Southern Rhodesia is part of the RSA. Note that the industrial heartland includes Beitbridge, Bulawayo, Gweru and Salisbury. I figured that the union would happen probably around WWII or shortly thereafter. Perhaps in 1947, sensing the Afrikaner backlash and hoping to prevent a NP victory, which King George is in South Africa he asks for, and gets, Bechuanaland and Southern Rhodesia made part of the RSA.
2 - Yes, I have little doubt of that. The Cubans were always far more firebrand than Moscow was, and as Moscow needs Havana to stay in line to thumb its nose at the US, I figure if Cuba invades to help Angola as in OTL, the Soviets will have to help them out. The South Africans will REALLY not want to see Angola into the communist sphere, because of its oil reserves, which the RSA post energy crisis (South Africa was specifically targeted by OPEC in 1973) will need. Hence, SA and Cuba end up playing against each other, but if the RSA is on good terms with Biafra as in my TL, they won't need a full scale war. Neither side ends up deploying thousands of troops as in OTL, greatly reducing the strain on both nations' economies.
3 - I doubt it. The RSA did it in OTL because they felt they were on their own and needed to have a deterrent. Here, they don't need to make nuclear weapons, and I suspect they won't bother. Making such things is expensive, and money that could be spent on better social services and development is money better spent in this case.
Eurofed
Banned
Fine.
I think that this wealthier RSA, with more overt ties to NATO, could supply UNITA rather more effectively than OTL (esp. in the mid-late 1970s when the MPLA had not yet consolidated its hold on power and that idiotic rider had banned US supplies to Savimbi till mid-80s -I wonder whether it would still happen), this may or may not be sufficient to prevent the MPLA gaining control of most of the country and make UNITA get the upper hand. But once the Cubans intervene, I doubt UNITA alone, even richly supplied, could do much more than keeping control of its southern turf. If the RSA wants to expel the Cubans and overthrow the MPLA (and even if it has an alternative oil source in Biafra, allowing an hostile communist regime to fester on your border is very bad business) SADF intervention is likely needed, it does not seem to me that the economic strain would be so great for this RSA, esp. since it's going to get more support from NATO ITTL. Given that this RSA is more friendly with the rest of the West to being with, and so intervention is going to be seen with more sympathy than suspicion (esp. when the likes of Reagan and Thatcher come on board), the benefits of intervention outweigh the drawbacks IMO. It is quite possible that the Cubans may be kicked out and the MPLA overthrown in a few months.
OK.