So HOW disasterous would Sealion be?
- Thread starter henri
- Start date
Cook
Banned
Sorry about that. I’d mentally slipped into the conditions required for Sealion to proceed.
More Coffee time.
I’d have thought that Churchill’s asking the CIGS to prepare contingency plans for ‘Unthinkable’ was proof that he was more aware of the true nature of Stalin than his contemporaries and was, as prior to World War Two, several steps ahead of his country’s mood.
I saw a quote of 10 divisions planned. Presumably some of them would be armor... say 100,000 troops ferried across the Channel in one day, on river barges and fishing boats mostly, because the navy hasn't got the ships to do it. All by a planned whipped up in a couple of months. This is way above the level of German organizational experience at this point. There's going to be such a clusterfuck
. Boats not leaving harbor because fuel was not shipped, troops sitting on the dock while their officers try to get the paperwork together, boats that turn out to exist only on paper... I bet only half those troops will actually put to sea on Der Tag.
. Boats not leaving harbor because fuel was not shipped, troops sitting on the dock while their officers try to get the paperwork together, boats that turn out to exist only on paper... I bet only half those troops will actually put to sea on Der Tag.Given the most likely scenario
- The Luftwaffe suffers severe losses (500-1000 aircraft). The RAF will suffer heavy losses too, but will accomplish its strategic objective of denying the Germans air superiority over the invasion sites.
- The German airborne divisions are gutted: they suffer 80-90% killed/injured/missing and are mauled to the point of being ineffective for the duration of the war, which right there means no Crete
- the KM loses most of its surface units, so the threat to Allied convoys is reduced
- U-boats, prowling the channel to ward off attacks by the RN suffer much worse losses: in the Pacific the Japanese mainly used their submarines to attack allied warships, and it didn't work out too well. The U-boat threat will still be there, but not as severe as it was in OTL
- at least 50% of the river barges are sunk or have to be abandoned, which is going to have a severe adverse impact on the German economy
- For the troops in the seaborne invasion force, I'd figure the rough breakdown would probably go something like this: 20% are killed at sea, 10% are killed fighting in Southern England, 30% either never leave port or are forced to turn back after the KM naval screen is destroyed, 10% are evacuated back to France, and 30% are captured.
- The Luftwaffe suffers severe losses (500-1000 aircraft). The RAF will suffer heavy losses too, but will accomplish its strategic objective of denying the Germans air superiority over the invasion sites.
- The German airborne divisions are gutted: they suffer 80-90% killed/injured/missing and are mauled to the point of being ineffective for the duration of the war, which right there means no Crete
- the KM loses most of its surface units, so the threat to Allied convoys is reduced
- U-boats, prowling the channel to ward off attacks by the RN suffer much worse losses: in the Pacific the Japanese mainly used their submarines to attack allied warships, and it didn't work out too well. The U-boat threat will still be there, but not as severe as it was in OTL
- at least 50% of the river barges are sunk or have to be abandoned, which is going to have a severe adverse impact on the German economy
- For the troops in the seaborne invasion force, I'd figure the rough breakdown would probably go something like this: 20% are killed at sea, 10% are killed fighting in Southern England, 30% either never leave port or are forced to turn back after the KM naval screen is destroyed, 10% are evacuated back to France, and 30% are captured.
In OTL, Stalin ignored British warnings about the likelyhood of Germany invading the USSR - they were dismissed as a trick to get the Soviets to attack Germany and relieve some of the pressure on the UK. After a failed Sealion, Britain will be secure from invasion and so it's warnings will be taken more seriously. A better prepared Soviet Union will put up a better resistance to the Wehrmacht.
Cheers,
Nigel.
There's also the fact that it will become apparent to Stalin that Hitler wwill be attempting other options to secure victory now that the invasion of Britain has failed, making him more alert. On the other hand with the massive causalties that a realistic Sealion would endure, Barbarossa is probably out of the picture until 1942.
You might even get a Soviet pre-emptive strike during the invasion or in 1941. Germany would be severely weakened on the Eastern Front after all.
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Psychology of Defeat..
A failed German invasion of England would have serious psychological implications. This is the first time the previously-invincible Wehrmacht has been decisively defeated.
As the Americans and even the Russians have found out in OTL, nothing succeeds like success and failure leads to a lot of questionning about roles and responsibilities.
I think the SS would become more important as its reputation would be unsullied. On the British side, there would be a valuable restoration of confidence and self-belief after the battering in France. Indeed, the victory over the Nazi invader might encourage the British to take a more assertive line in the prosecution of the war.
The British repulse of the German invader wouldn't have have gone unnoticed in Washington or, I would argue, Tokyo. Perhaps the Japanese would conclude the British are not such a "soft touch".
Final thought - even today, across south-east England and in the museums at Folkestone, Dover and Newhaven, there would be relics and testimony from those who witnessed the fighting and saw their homes destroyed and somewhere in the hedgerows of deepest Kent, there might be a rusted helmet or some other detritus of war....
A failed German invasion of England would have serious psychological implications. This is the first time the previously-invincible Wehrmacht has been decisively defeated.
As the Americans and even the Russians have found out in OTL, nothing succeeds like success and failure leads to a lot of questionning about roles and responsibilities.
I think the SS would become more important as its reputation would be unsullied. On the British side, there would be a valuable restoration of confidence and self-belief after the battering in France. Indeed, the victory over the Nazi invader might encourage the British to take a more assertive line in the prosecution of the war.
The British repulse of the German invader wouldn't have have gone unnoticed in Washington or, I would argue, Tokyo. Perhaps the Japanese would conclude the British are not such a "soft touch".
Final thought - even today, across south-east England and in the museums at Folkestone, Dover and Newhaven, there would be relics and testimony from those who witnessed the fighting and saw their homes destroyed and somewhere in the hedgerows of deepest Kent, there might be a rusted helmet or some other detritus of war....
Dad's Army
Another side effect is that the initial defence of the UK is likely to be handled in part by the Home Guard, with some members being killed in action. That is going to lead to the Home Guard being more respected than in OTL.
In such a timeline, I would expect a couple of wartime/post-war British films to feature the Home Guard in heroic roles, and of course no film of Operation Sealion would be complete without a scene of the the Home Guard fearlessly defending the beaches. ITTL, Dad's Army would be an action-filled war-film about how a Home Guard Platoon (mainly WWI veterans) defended the port of Walmington from attack by the Wehrmacht using a combination of antiquated and improvised weaponry ...
Cheers,
Nigel.
Another side effect is that the initial defence of the UK is likely to be handled in part by the Home Guard, with some members being killed in action. That is going to lead to the Home Guard being more respected than in OTL.
In such a timeline, I would expect a couple of wartime/post-war British films to feature the Home Guard in heroic roles, and of course no film of Operation Sealion would be complete without a scene of the the Home Guard fearlessly defending the beaches. ITTL, Dad's Army would be an action-filled war-film about how a Home Guard Platoon (mainly WWI veterans) defended the port of Walmington from attack by the Wehrmacht using a combination of antiquated and improvised weaponry ...
Cheers,
Nigel.
Alex Richards
Donor
I suspect that the defences created, and recently excavated on Time Team, will have a lot more respect/interest as well. There were some pretty innovative ones such as flamethrowers disguised as telephone boxes and pillboxes in dummy structures (like Pub Toilets).
I say we make a TL and not just stop with the UmSM falling on its arrse like with a better show in 1940. Some of the ideas for the later war are promising. I'd also be interersted in seeing what the post war world's like.
For a shameless plug, my Seelowe TL considers how bad a successful Sealion would be not just for Britain but also for Germany.