Several Spanish Civil War WI/PCs

[M. A. Dickens]

So I've been reading up on the Spanish Civil War as part of the ongoing world-building effort for my TL, and have hit a roadblock with SCW. Right now I'm looking at two main options that will leave the country as broken as OTL Afghanistan/Syria by TTL 1970s...

I. The war starts on schedule in 1936

1. WI: Jose Sanjurjo survived the plane crash on July 20, 1936 (or, the crash did not happen at all)?
2. PC: the war petered out, with a divided Spain a la OTL Korean Peninsula?
3. PC: Republican victory, Falangistas all dead/imprisoned/exiled?

II. The war doesn't happen until 1950s
1. Is this even possible?
2. Which one, if any, of the OTL factions will remain in play? What other new factions will be relevant?
3. How would a delayed SCW affect German-Italian military doctrine in the lead-up to WWII?
4. How likely are the factions going to consider hiring mercenaries (under the table, of course) for "non-combat" duties?

Marc A

 

[Don Quijote]

So I've been reading up on the Spanish Civil War as part of the ongoing world-building effort for my TL, and have hit a roadblock with SCW. Right now I'm looking at two main options that will leave the country as broken as OTL Afghanistan/Syria by TTL 1970s...

I. The war starts on schedule in 1936

1. WI: Jose Sanjurjo survived the plane crash on July 20, 1936 (or, the crash did not happen at all)?
2. PC: the war petered out, with a divided Spain a la OTL Korean Peninsula?
3. PC: Republican victory, Falangistas all dead/imprisoned/exiled?

II. The war doesn't happen until 1950s
1. Is this even possible?
2. Which one, if any, of the OTL factions will remain in play? What other new factions will be relevant?
3. How would a delayed SCW affect German-Italian military doctrine in the lead-up to WWII?
4. How likely are the factions going to consider hiring mercenaries (under the table, of course) for "non-combat" duties?

Marc A

I've also been reading about the SCW recently, and while I'm not yet an expert I would say this:
I.1. Not sure how big an impact this would have, but Franco had the support of General Mola,so I think the Nationalist leadership will stay the same.
2. Very unlikely. If there was foreign intervention by UK/France I could see Catalonia becoming independent under French protection, but not much more. Where would the dividing line be drawn?
3. Will require strong Soviet commitment, or intervention by other democracies. However the USA was still isolationist, UK too cautious about the possibility of large scale war, and France reluctant to act alone.

II. As a whole, no. Tensions in Spain were far too high to put off the conflict beyond the early 1940s. On the other hand, a slightly later start, even 1938, may still have major butterflies, so that may be a good route to go down for a TL. Of course a second civil war in the 1950s is completely possible if the first doesn't establish a stable enough government.

 

[M. A. Dickens]

I've also been reading about the SCW recently, and while I'm not yet an expert I would say this:
I.1. Not sure how big an impact this would have, but Franco had the support of General Mola,so I think the Nationalist leadership will stay the same.
2. Very unlikely. If there was foreign intervention by UK/France I could see Catalonia becoming independent under French protection, but not much more. Where would the dividing line be drawn?
3. Will require strong Soviet commitment, or intervention by other democracies. However the USA was still isolationist, UK too cautious about the possibility of large scale war, and France reluctant to act alone.

II. As a whole, no. Tensions in Spain were far too high to put off the conflict beyond the early 1940s. On the other hand, a slightly later start, even 1938, may still have major butterflies, so that may be a good route to go down for a TL. Of course a second civil war in the 1950s is completely possible if the first doesn't establish a stable enough government.

I.2. Dividing line... um, I don't know, something like this, maybe?
3. Let's say USSR does commit in a major way and Germany/Italy stays out or not commit as much ITTL, the Republicans win on the mainland. Will they have the means to take Spanish Morocco and the Balearic/Canary Islands?

II. Then perhaps I'll have the First Civil War sow seeds for the Second, though of course depending on how I'll have the First turn out.

Marc A

 

[Lleibi]

So I've been reading up on the Spanish Civil War as part of the ongoing world-building effort for my TL, and have hit a roadblock with SCW. Right now I'm looking at two main options that will leave the country as broken as OTL Afghanistan/Syria by TTL 1970s...

I. The war starts on schedule in 1936

1. WI: Jose Sanjurjo survived the plane crash on July 20, 1936 (or, the crash did not happen at all)?
2. PC: the war petered out, with a divided Spain a la OTL Korean Peninsula?
3. PC: Republican victory, Falangistas all dead/imprisoned/exiled?

II. The war doesn't happen until 1950s
1. Is this even possible?
2. Which one, if any, of the OTL factions will remain in play? What other new factions will be relevant?
3. How would a delayed SCW affect German-Italian military doctrine in the lead-up to WWII?
4. How likely are the factions going to consider hiring mercenaries (under the table, of course) for "non-combat" duties?

Marc A

I.1 I know little of Sanjurjo, only that he would probably attempt a "soft dictatorship" (like Primo de Rivera) or simply a regime change (restoring the monarchy). The "causa general" (the indiscriminate persecution of people suspected of being leftist or supporting the republic that happened after the Civil War by legal means) might not have happened.

I.2 Not possible, i think, without an outside intervention that froze the border and forced that kind of division on both sides.

I.3 It depends. As i see it, a Republican victory is tough to happen without outside intervention. If it's mostly soviet help, the communists in Spain might be in a better position and could force the govt. (or execute it themselves) such a purge. If the UK and France decide to openly help the republic, then they probably wouldn't allow that.

II.1 Not possible. If the civil war is delayed as far as 1940, the nazis will likely invade Spain after France, and no later than Barbarossa if the Republican govt. is friendly with Moscow. I just can't see a Republican govt. (Frente Popular, no less), staying neutral in the WWII. And after having gone through the WWII, the social, political and economic situation will be so different that the conflict of the Civil War wouldn't exist. Not in the same scale, anyway.

 

[Don Quijote]

I.2. Dividing line... um, I don't know, something like this, maybe?
3. Let's say USSR does commit in a major way and Germany/Italy stays out or not commit as much ITTL, the Republicans win on the mainland. Will they have the means to take Spanish Morocco and the Balearic/Canary Islands?

II. Then perhaps I'll have the First Civil War sow seeds for the Second, though of course depending on how I'll have the First turn out.

Marc A

Morocco is pretty firmly under Nationalist control, as it is dominated by Franco's Spanish Foreign Legion. In the event of a total Republican victory though, it will probably eventually fall if the Republic really wants it back. If not, the Moroccans themselves are likely to drive the rebels out, as they will have a limited ability to maintain their control over the region in the long term. The Balearics are much easier, and nearly were retaken by the Republicans in Sep-Oct 1936. Ibiza was captured quickly, but when they landed on Majorca they didn't attack soon enough, and the Nationalists were able to make strong air attacks, which combined with a counterattack on the ground, pushed the Republicans out. Not really sure what happened to Menorca IOTL, but it will almost certainly go back to/stay with the Republicans if the other islands do. The Canaries are a bit out of the way, so it's hard to say what would happen to them. Are they viable as an independent state?

 

[Mr. Magi]

Honestly the Republicans could do decently against the Nationalists... you just need to make sure the Moroccan units can't make it to Spain, which is what really stymied their efforts. If that happens and France only gives enough of a shit to allow weapon sales and a supply line to the Republicans, and they'd probably be able to win.