Seven Days to the River Rhine: the Third World War - a TL

Chapter VI: Day Three: Daytime Nuclear Warfare, November 12th 1983.
And the beginning of the end continues:


Chapter VI: Day Three: Daytime Nuclear Warfare, November 12th 1983.

At 08:00 AM the Soviet offensive resumed and began with the release of tactical nuclear weapons on a much larger scale than NATO’s initial strike. The 3rd Shock Army deployed OTR-21 Tochka tactical ballistic missiles (NATO reporting name: SS-21 Scarab), much smaller and much more accurate than the preceding 9K52 Luna-M system. An entire brigade of OTR-21 units was deployed with eighteen launchers that had two or three missiles each, which could carry fragmentation warheads but also nuclear, chemical or biological ones. These vehicles were completely amphibious, with a maximum road speed of 60 km/h (37 mph) and 8 km/h (5 mph) in water. The vehicle was NBC-protected (Nuclear, Biological, Chemical) and therefore suited to a war like this.

Two launchers fired a total of five missiles which carried a single 100 kiloton warhead each, obliterating West German, British and Belgian defenders belonging to the Northern Army Group (NORTHAG) and much of the city of Göttingen along with them. Out of a population of almost 114.000, half was killed and the rest was injured and fell prey to radiation sickness in varying degrees. The Soviet Army made no provisions for the refugees fleeing the ruined town where smoke from burning historical buildings blackened the sky and made it seem like night time. A culturally important city with a prestigious university had been ruined by Soviet commanders without an afterthought.

Now dressed in full NBC-gear to protect themselves from nuclear fallout, Soviet soldiers of the 3rd Shock Army arrived at the Weser River and built pontoon bridges as the regular bridges had been blown up by NATO sappers in the hopes of slowing down the Warsaw Pact’s advance. After crossing, they continued their advance to Kassel, conquered it and then rapidly moved on to the Rhine as too little remained of the NATO forces facing them (further to the north, Dutch I Corps withdrew west from the front on the Elbe to the Weser, crossing the river at Bremen). The 3rd Shock Army advanced so fast that later in the afternoon they were close to the Ruhr Area, the highly urbanized industrial heart of Germany.

On the 3rd Shock Army’s right flank the surviving elements of the 2nd Guards Army used a 100 kiloton missile fired from an OTR-21 unit to drive West German and Danish forces in Schleswig-Holstein into Denmark. They detonated the weapon 20 kilometres west of Lübeck, causing light damage to the city such as shattered windows. The small town of Bad Oldesloe, which was at the epicentre of the blast, was a lot less lucky: it was levelled and almost all of the town’s inhabitants were reduced to ashes in an instant. The few stragglers that made it out of town suffered from second and third degree burns and could literally pull the skin off their flesh. For many of them this agony would only end with a miserable death due to radiation sickness.

At the central front near Frankfurt, the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Guards Army had regrouped after their vanguard had been decimated by two 80 kiloton American tactical nuclear weapons. After Rhein-Main Air Base had been destroyed and Frankfurt along with it, the Soviets wreaked further havoc in the region by deploying more of their OTR-21 Tochka systems. Four 100 kiloton explosions inflicted further extreme losses on NATO’s Central Army Group (CENTAG) and by nightfall they’d reached the right bank of the Rhine. CENTAG forces had withdrawn across the river, having destroyed all the bridges across it as they intended to use the natural defensive line the river provided to stop Warsaw Pact forces, deploying fresh reinforcements. The Soviets on their part prepared an amphibious and airborne operation to cross the Rhine and unleashed a heavy conventional artillery bombardment on NATO positions on the left bank.

In Mediterranean Europe the first nuclear strike took place that targeted a NATO member other than West Germany: Italy. A Soviet Tupolev Tu-95 strategic heavy bomber belonging to the 79th Heavy Bomber Aviation Division, resorting under the 37th Air Army, departed from Dolon Air Base (located at Semipalatinsk in the Kazakh SSR of the Soviet Union). It unleashed two Kh-22 missiles with the warheads set at a yield of 500 kilotons, annihilating the base as well as the nearby town of Aviano and the small city Pordenone. Again thousands of innocent civilians suffered.

All these nuclear strikes in the night and morning led to a West German exodus, starting at dawn. Half a million people had been killed almost instantaneously in these strikes across West Germany and Austria. Things were clearly heating up and German civilians no longer felt safe staying in cities that at any moment could be targeted by the Soviets with a nuclear weapon. Chaos erupted in major West German cities like Bremen, Dortmund, Essen, Düsseldorf, Cologne and Bonn as countless people didn’t heed the advice to seek shelter and protection underground in cellars, subway stations and fallout shelters as they feared they wouldn’t be safe here. The inhabitants of these cities knew these places would be hit in the event of a full scale nuclear exchange.

Law and order disappeared. Those intending to flee packed the essentials and prepared to leave, which in many cases also meant participating in the looting of grocery stores. As tens of thousands of people were involved, the police was no longer able to enforce order and the Bundeswehr had different priorities right now. In fact, many policemen didn’t show up for work and were busy looting themselves. The looters took anything edible and things like bottled water, but also things like clothing, toilet paper, shampoo, dog food, cat food and medication like painkillers and antiemetics for people who suffered from motion sickness. Stores catering to outdoors recreation saw looters steal things like tents, sleeping bags and gas cartridge portable stoves (a handful of people that followed the bushcraft lifestyle took what they needed to be able to live off the land). After putting their luggage and loot in every conceivable nook and cranny of their cars, people drove off. What also occurred was that people pooled their resources and took a bus, truck or even something as unconventional as a bulldozer or an excavator.

A refugee crisis emerged in just one day, turning the westbound roads in the Ruhr Area into one giant traffic congestion. Cars, vans, busses and trucks moved at a snail’s pace bumper to bumper, taking the entire morning and afternoon to cover a distance of just 50 kilometres or less. This prompted more and more people to take only what they could carry and abandon their vehicles. Quickly people were driving in the wrong direction on the eastbound side of the highways too.

The refugees continued on foot or on different vehicles. For those who had bicycles, mopeds and motorcycles, enabling them to navigate through the mass of cars much faster, the situation was a mixed bag. These two-wheeled modes of transportation certainly covered a lot more ground than any regular passenger car, but that also meant people wanted them. Plenty of motorcyclists, moped drivers and cyclists proved to be willing to take somebody with them. In other cases desperate people traded food or water in exchange for a ride. Many women engaged in survival sex as a method of payment for hitchhiking, which meant scenarios otherwise reserved for pornographic films suddenly took place in the real world: women having sex in the back of cars at roadside stations or gratifying men orally behind a bush in exchange for a ride. It was all part of the surrealism of those days in mid-November 1983, and tragically in many cases it was for nothing as many would die in the nuclear fire that would come.

Other people resorted to use of force to steal a motorcycle, moped or bike. They beat up or even killed the original owners with melee weapons like claw hammers and crowbars or sometimes firearms like air guns and hunting rifles. A different type of force was used by those who had commandeered a bus, truck, bulldozer or excavator: they used the sheer size and power of their vehicles to crush or cast aside abandoned cars.

A teleconference was held, attended by the leaders of all NATO powers, at 10:00 AM Western European time (09:00 AM in Britain, 02:00 AM at the Cheyenne Mountain Complex). Reagan de facto chaired the meeting despite his fatigue, having slept only four to five hours in the two preceding nights and taking a handful of 20-25 minute naps during the day when the situation allowed it. During this meeting Reagan, Thatcher, Kohl and Mitterrand discussed how to react to the escalating situation in West Germany. Italian Prime Minister Amintore Fanfani, Dutch Prime Minister Ruud Lubbers and Belgian Prime Minister Wilfried Martens featured prominently too. A Soviet crossing of the Rhine seemed imminent and Kohl, Lubbers and Martens argued in favour of larger scale use of tactical nuclear strikes to stop that. Some kind of retaliation was also discussed against Babruysk Air Base, where the bombers that had destroyed Hamburg, Frankfurt and Vienna had taken off from. The option of taking out Dolon Air Base as a tit for tat for the Soviets taking out Aviano was raised by Fanfani. They all agreed that a show of force was needed to show Moscow that the West wouldn’t be bullied into submission through their nuclear terror.

NATO released a statement that it would not yield to Soviet “nuclear terrorism” targeting Western cities and their civilian populations. If these kind of operations continued then NATO would see itself forces to retaliate “in kind” according to the same statement. They demanded a commitment from the Soviet Union that civilian targets would be spared as much as possible, because they couldn’t guarantee they would to the same if Moscow declined. Pope John Paul II, Swedish Prime Minister Olof Palme and UN Secretary-General Javier Pérez de Cuéllar offered to mediate such a deal as a precursor to a ceasefire agreement.

Like they hadn’t taken the earlier ultimatum seriously, the Soviet leadership didn’t take these threats seriously either. They should have done so, but instead they chose to see it as a sign of weakness and a desperate move to intimidate the Soviets into stopping their successful advance. They ignored the pleas of the Vatican, the Swedish embassy and Pérez de Cuéllar.

As the Warsaw Pact’s advance all across the front continued relentlessly, NATO prepared larger scale tactical nuclear strikes that afternoon to stop them as their leaders had agreed on in the morning. Under the NATO nuclear sharing arrangement, US nuclear weapons were stationed in the Netherlands, Belgium, West Germany, Italy and Turkey. The weapons were stored within a vault in hardened aircraft shelters, using the US Air Force WS3 Weapons Storage and Security System. They were controlled and guarded by USAF personnel who controlled the Permissive Action Link codes. To be specific, the USAF Munitions Support Squadrons co-located at these NATO bases, where they worked together with host nation forces, had custody and control over the weapons. After the Netherlands and Belgium had provided their keys for the dual-key systems, simultaneous authorization by the host nations and the United States was a fact.

At 03:00 PM that Saturday afternoon, three Dutch F-16s took off from Volkel Air Base near the village of the same name in the Netherlands. Volkel Air Base was one of several military airfields in the Netherlands, and one of the three major operational bases of the Royal Netherlands Air Force (RNLAF), the other two being Leeuwarden Air Base and Gilze-Rijen Air Base. A squadron of F-16s flying from Gilze-Rijen Air Base joined them as an escort to protect them. Besides that, a lone trio of F-16s would be odd and warn Warsaw Pact units that a tactical nuclear strike was headed their way, which they would try to stop at all costs. They dropped three B61 bombs, this time with the yield set at 300 kilotons, crippling the 3rd Shock Army a mere 50 kilometres east of Dortmund.

A strike twice as large was launched from Kleine Brogel Air Base, located near the town of Peer. It was the home of the 10th Tactical Wing of the Air Component, the air arm of the Belgian Defence Forces. A sextet of F-16s piloted by Belgian aviators took off at 03:00 PM and they dropped six B61 bombs that detonated over the 1st Guards Tank Army and the 6th Guards Army with an explosive yield of 300 kilotons each, decimating these two major Soviet formations and thereby preventing a crossing of the Rhine. Remaining CENTAG forces on the left bank were relieved that the artillery bombardment they’d been subjected to all day was finally over. It would be a short reprieve.
 
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Just read all of this timeline so far. All I can say is that I am cheering for the total victory of NATO and hope that the American flag is raised over the ruins of the Kremlin.

Though the role of nuclear weapons in WW3 ITTL is gonna make this world war far more dangerous and bordering an apocalypse than the first two world wars...
 
Just read all of this timeline so far. All I can say is that I am cheering for the total victory of NATO and hope that the American flag is raised over the ruins of the Kremlin.

Though the role of nuclear weapons in WW3 ITTL is gonna make this world war far more dangerous and bordering an apocalypse than the first two world wars...
"Bordering"? I think we're WAAAAY past that point.
 
Just read all of this timeline so far. All I can say is that I am cheering for the total victory of NATO and hope that the American flag is raised over the ruins of the Kremlin.

Though the role of nuclear weapons in WW3 ITTL is gonna make this world war far more dangerous and bordering an apocalypse than the first two world wars...
I think "victory" is going to be a hotly debated word in the context of this war. I think it might be better to ask who loses the least? Even neutral nations are going to be suffering consequences from the sheer quantity of nukes getting thrown around and we still haven't seen a single ICBM launch yet. There's a whole lot worse that this can get before it ends.
 
I think "victory" is going to be a hotly debated word in the context of this war. I think it might be better to ask who loses the least? Even neutral nations are going to be suffering consequences from the sheer quantity of nukes getting thrown around and they haven't launched ICBMs.........yet.
"Victory" here pretty much means "Which side suffered lower casualties."
 
Are people in the USSR and North America evacuating cities en masse at this point in time?
The USSR had extensive plans and infrastructure for civil defense, to be carried out within 72 hours by moving people and industrial objects outside of cities. How well these plans would be followed and how much good it would do is obviously uncertain.
 
The USSR had extensive plans and infrastructure for civil defense, to be carried out within 72 hours by moving people and industrial objects outside of cities. How well these plans would be followed and how much good it would do is obviously uncertain.
Not very well and exactly dick all.
 
So far the detailed-ness of the narrative would imply that at a minimum significant civilization had survived, to the point where enough records survive whatever apocalypse, or that the end game nuclear exchange wasn't that bad. However, there are 3 possibilities to subvert that:
  • The narrative was written in the immediate aftermath complied from high level sources for posterity, and either discovered much later on or...
  • Tech of the distant future discovered the ability to view (but not interfere) into the past with clarity (one way to do that is actually the same reasoning against FTL via wormholes, thus not necessarily ASB) and this is complied from that.
  • Breaking the 4th wall altogether.
 
So far the detailed-ness of the narrative would imply that at a minimum significant civilization had survived, to the point where enough records survive whatever apocalypse, or that the end game nuclear exchange wasn't that bad. However, there are 3 possibilities to subvert that:
  • The narrative was written in the immediate aftermath complied from high level sources for posterity, and either discovered much later on or...
  • Tech of the distant future discovered the ability to view (but not interfere) into the past with clarity (one way to do that is actually the same reasoning against FTL via wormholes, thus not necessarily ASB) and this is complied from that.
  • Breaking the 4th wall altogether.
Well, places like Australia and New Zealand might make it through the nuclear holocaust relatively unscathed (with only military bases and maybe a couple of big cities being nuked), so I imagine that history books about WW3 would be coming from there.
 
So far the detailed-ness of the narrative would imply that at a minimum significant civilization had survived, to the point where enough records survive whatever apocalypse, or that the end game nuclear exchange wasn't that bad. However, there are 3 possibilities to subvert that:
  • The narrative was written in the immediate aftermath complied from high level sources for posterity, and either discovered much later on or...
  • Tech of the distant future discovered the ability to view (but not interfere) into the past with clarity (one way to do that is actually the same reasoning against FTL via wormholes, thus not necessarily ASB) and this is complied from that.
  • Breaking the 4th wall altogether.
There is a ww3 scenario that start like a Ken burns documentury on Youtube but in the end everyone dies as nuke fly
 

chankljp

Donor
Never seen a TL dealing with a PRC that goes more or less unscathed after WWIII, that could be interesting.
If things escalate, CAN the PRC come out of this unscathed? Similar to what the Soviets did in the "Able Archer" TL, even if they have stayed out of direct involvement in the war, a Moscow that finds itself under pressure might nuke them anyway as a way of freeing up all the troops they have on the Far East defending against a potential PRC attack, so that they and be redeployed to the European front. Similarly, I think it has always been part of the American nuclear doctrine during the Cold War that if a general nuclear exchange takes place, they will nuke China as well almost as a 'just in case' type of deal, in order to prevent them from taking advantage of the situation once the US themselves has been taken out?
 
they will nuke China as well almost as a 'just in case' type of deal, in order to prevent them from taking advantage of the situation once the US themselves has been taken out?
In the 1980s, they probably weren't genociders - on both sides of the Iron Curtain. No one wants to be remembered by their own population as the one who killed hundreds of millions of people in neutral countries.
 
Great TL.
Altough I miss a bit the doubt.....
I mean the gereatic communist, as in good communist practise do not give toss of human lives, altough even among them there must be some sort of doubt or reasoning that they can make demands. Afterall war is diplomacy and a game of levarage, even this madness. Since the first tactical nukes are used, all people in charge know that strategic nukes are the next step and make the odds of beiing killed them self dramaticly increase.
I also wonder of the unanimity among the West European NATO leaders, for the use of an other round of tacical nukes. I could think there would be voices of asking for an armistice or terms before the whole Western world/civilisation is destroyed by nukes.
I also wonder if there was no option to use first chemical weapons against the advancing sovjet troops, considering if these weapons were available, by NATO.
Furter, with the knowledge of today, I wonder how the logistics and quality of the sovjets were even in 1983. I think the quality of sovjet training, mrale, arms, vehicles, protective gear and logistics is shocking bad, even in 1983, due to endemic corruption and the very incompetent sovjet/comunist economic, production and distribution system.
I mean, no doubt the first day the sovjets make a large advance but it will run out of momentum very, very fast. I wonder if sovjet or orther warshau pact soldiers dare to advance in their tanks who tend to explode even by 1983 style infantery anti tank weapons. The sovjet tanker morale must be very high if you have to drive your tank first through a large scrap yard of destoyed tanks of you comrades. I do not think the sovjet doctrine of mass will suvive one day. Also who gained air superiority?
 
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chankljp

Donor
In the 1980s, they probably weren't genociders - on both sides of the Iron Curtain. No one wants to be remembered by their own population as the one who killed hundreds of millions of people in neutral countries.
By the point of escalating to a general nuclear exchange taking place, both the East and the West would have already committed genocide on a global scale.

If the Soviets and the Warsaw Pact are losing upwards of 1,000 military personnel (and some civilians) nearly every hour of a conventional war, while the US is watching their NATO allies on the verge of getting overwhelmed by the Red Menace… I don’t think the top level decision makers will really care about the lives of citizens in neutral countries anymore.

I doubt they are going to worry much about
 
Great TL.
Altough I miss a bit the doubt.....
I mean the gereatic communist, as in good communist practise do not give toss of human lives, altough even among them there must be some sort of doubt or reasoning that they can make demands. Afterall war is diplomacy and a game of levarage, even this madness. Since the first tactical nukes are used, all people in charge know that strategic nukes are the next step and make the odds of beiing killed them self dramaticly increase.
I also wonder of the unanimity among the West European NATO leaders, for the use of an other round of tacical nukes. I could think there would be voices of asking for an armistice or terms before the whole Western world/civilisation is destroyed by nukes.
I also wonder if there was no option to use first chemical weapons against the advancing sovjet troops, considering if these weapons were available, by NATO.
Furter, with the knowledge of today, I wonder how the logistics and quality of the sovjets were even in 1983. I think the quality of sovjet training, mrale, arms, vehicles, protective gear and logistics is shocking bad, even in 1983, due to endemic corruption and the very incompetent sovjet/comunist economic, production and distribution system.
I mean, no doubt the first day the sovjets make a large advance but it will run out of momentum very, very fast. I wonder if sovjet or orther warshau pact soldiers dare to advance in their tanks who tend to explode even by 1983 style infantery anti tank weapons. The sovjet tanker morale must be very high if you have to drive your tank first through a large scrap yard of destoyed tanks of you comrades. I do not think the sovjet doctrine of mass will suvive one day. Also who gained air superiority?
I think the Soviets would have logistics issues, but keep in mind that a third of their economy is geared towards the possibility of having to fight this war. I think they'd be able to last more than a few days.

The Soviets seem a little too eager to call NATO bluffs, even after both sides have used nukes and in the Soviets' case even on cities. What began as a preemptive reaction to Able Archer and could conceivably be ended on day 2 as a "victory" for the USSR by way of negotiations in a neutral country, yet this option is just being ignored.
 
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It's time for an update. Now I've done a bit of reading up on US and Soviet nuclear doctrine and plans. While it's true standard Soviet doctrine was to liberally use tactical nukes, alternatives involving a limited nuclear war or just fighting a plain conventional war were developed in the 1970s. So if Moscow gives orders to that effect, the Soviet Army will have to carry them out. What I didn't find was evidence that the USSR would willy nilly nuke all possible surviving countries and take the world down with them. According to a declassified CIA file I found online, the Soviets might have nuked China and that was uncertain (I don't think they would have given that Sino-Soviet relations had normalized by the early 80s). As to the US nuking China, Chinese targets had been removed from SIOP in the 70s.
The Soviets would have nuked China either way. Because China holds a big counterweight to the USSR, forcing it to fight a multi-front conflict ranging from Central Europe, the Middle East, Central Asia, and the Far East. The 1 million-man PLA across the border could in theory overwhelm the Soviet border guards and military positions in the FEMD/Lake Baikal Area. Especially since the Soviets focused more on the Iron Curtain compared to Asia.

Not to mention, the CIA had joint ELINT stations in Xinjiang with their Chinese counterparts to snoop on Soviet nuclear sites in Central Asia. This is a lesser-known chapter in history that not even Beijing and Washington want to acknowledge.

If you want to see how a Sino-Soviet War occurs in the 1980s, @General_Paul's Ashes of The Dragon Protect & Survive spinoff discusses it in a grimm and gruesome detail.

I found a study back then in 2020 that the U.S. actually had plans to bomb China even in the early 1980s. China was marked as a secondary target but was removed from the SIOP in 1982, only to be part of it again in 1992 by STRATCOM (successor of SAC) after the PRC was declared the OPFOR once more.

To quote two articles I read (Page 152-153):
Pacific Command planners were keenly aware of the beneficial role that China played in tying down Soviet forces in the Far East that would otherwise have to be countered by U.S. and Japanese forces. By 1984, CINCPAC estimated, approximately 90 percent of Soviet ground forces in the Far East were directed against China and preoccupied with the “growing Chinese nuclear capability.” China on the other hand maintained about 50 percent of its ground forces along the Soviet border. The Soviet-Chinese stand-off had resulted in “the largest single concentration of forces along any binational border.”
The new Reagan administration embraced the idea of China as a partner in containing of the Soviet Union. On October 1, 1981, President Reagan signed National Security Decision Directive (NSDD) 13, which differed from PD-59 by reintroducing the notion of “prevailing” in a nuclear war and extending the period of time over which such a war might have to be fought. A nuclear war may go on for months or even years and had to end in a U.S. victory. NSDD-13 led to an updated Nuclear Weapons Employment Policy in July 1982 (NUWEP-82), which deleted the Major Attack Options against China. Instead of being a part of SIOP planning, a separate and smaller war plan was prepared for nuclear war with China.

In response to NUWEP-82, the Joint Chiefs of Staff published an update of the nuclear annex to the Joint Strategic Capabilities Plan (JSCP FY82-83). This annex (Annex C) ordered PACOM and SAC to prepare a Concept Plan (CONPLAN) for the employment of nuclear weapons against the “power projection capabilities” of China. As a result of the new guidance, the SIOP-6 war plan that went into effect on October 1, 1983, was a “major plan revision” that focused entirely on the Soviet Union. The plan contained four SSBN target packages for the Pacific Command: Two were “time-shared” with SSBNs operating in the Atlantic and Mediterranean under the command of Atlantic Command, and probably covered targets in the Soviet Union. The other two target packages were unique for the Pacific Command and probably covered targets in the Soviet Far East. Targets in China were covered by Strategic Reserve Force submarines when they were not on Hard Alert against the Soviet Union under SIOP as well as by bombers.

Only two SSBNs operated in the Pacific at the time: The USS Ohio (SSBN-726) sailed on its first patrol on October 1, 1982; and USS Michigan (SSBN-727) sailed on its first patrol in mid-August 1983 “as part of the SIOP force in the PACOM.” While the SLBMs were within range of Soviet Far Eastern targets as soon as the SSBN departed Bangor, Washington, targeting China and North Korea without overflying the Soviet Union required the submarines to sail further to the southwest to a patrol area north and west of Hawaii. The CONPLAN ordered for China, however, was short lived and dropped from the JSCP in 1984. Instead of targeting the country for nuclear annihilation, China was encouraged to provide overflight rights to U.S. aircraft and support its efforts to “preclude Soviet hegemony in Asia.” The new JSCP even directed that “the United States was to be prepared to provide security assistance to China in the event of Soviet aggression,” remarkable pledge given that considerable nuclear forces had been earmarked to destroy Chinese targets only a few years before. Chinese Premier Zhao Ziyang’s visited Washington in 1984. In preparing his reciprocal visit President Ronald Reagan set objectives for a new relationship. These included:
• To promote a China that remains independent of the Soviet orbit
• To encourage China’s efforts to modify and liberalize its totalitarian system, introduce incentives and market forces in its economy, and continue expanding its ties with the major industrialized democracies
• To help China modernize, on the grounds that a strong, secure and stable China can be an increasing force for peace, both in Asia and in the world, if the two objectives above are realized.
Source: Cristensen, H.M., Norris, R.S., and McKenzie, M.G. (2006). Chinese Nuclear Forces and U.S. Nuclear War Planning. The Federation of American Scientists and the Natural Defense Council.
As diplomatic ties have grown more contentious, a range of external factors, including changes in the United States’ nuclear policies and posture, has also caused China to become more concerned about the vulnerability of its nuclear deterrent. One important development occurred in 1992 when the U.S. military reincorporated China into its nuclear war planning as a potential target, after having removed it from the list in 1982.
Source: Tong Zhao (2020). How (and How Seriously) Does U.S. Missile Defense Threaten China? Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Never seen a TL dealing with a PRC that goes more or less unscathed after WWIII, that could be interesting.
I highly doubt the PRC would be less unscathed. The Soviets do not want China to become the next regional/global power once it collapses from American, British, and French nuclear strikes. On top of that, the U.S. is also wary of what would a less affected China be like once the dust settles. Remember in OTL, after the fall of the USSR, the Sino-American cooperation ended mostly due to the Tiananmen Square massacre and the fact the Pentagon saw them as a potential adversary because of its potential. Hence why the PRC is marked as the adversary since 1992.
 
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