Seven Days to the River Rhine: the Third World War - a TL

Wasn't Kaganovich already pretty obscure character already soon after Stalin's death?
Yes, he was involved in a failed coup in 1957 that caused him to be kicked out of the Party entirely. He was let back in later with Molotov and a few others but by then he was in his nineties and no longer had any interest in power. It is said that he changed temperament and manner considerably, becoming a much more involved grandfather and patriarch of the household, so quite a nice character arc )
 
Apparently the Doomsday plans of both had F* U* strikes to ensure none of the other sides allies and supporters ( and ideology similar neutrals, sorry Ireland ) survived intact ( China gets plastered for instance by both the Soviets and US ). The hope of a WWIII just wreaking the Northern Hemisphere is just that, reality was both sides wanted to make sure if they were going down, nobody else got to "win".
Not every strike against the real enemy will go through. Multiple strikes may be needed to take out primary targets, thus places like South America would be low on the priority list.
 
Not every strike against the real enemy will go through. Multiple strikes may be needed to take out primary targets, thus places like South America would be low on the priority list.
I read somewhere that the U.S. planned to nuke Moscow 400 times if a full nuclear exchange were to occur, and I don't doubt that the Soviets had a comparable number of warheads set for New York, DC or London.
 
I read somewhere that the U.S. planned to nuke Moscow 400 times if a full nuclear exchange were to occur, and I don't doubt that the Soviets had a comparable number of warheads set for New York, DC or London.
Deary me, that is the definition of an overkill. I thought 40 might be too much.
 
I read somewhere that the U.S. planned to nuke Moscow 400 times if a full nuclear exchange were to occur, and I don't doubt that the Soviets had a comparable number of warheads set for New York, DC or London.

That is really overkilling. Like you try rid annoying fly with grenade and then yet throw gasoline around and burn your house down. And yet finally shoot couple missiles to ashes. You hardly need even that much evne for destroying Moscow Oblast. And it seems just wasting of nukes.
 

marktaha

Banned
Apparently the Doomsday plans of both had F* U* strikes to ensure none of the other sides allies and supporters ( and ideology similar neutrals, sorry Ireland ) survived intact ( China gets plastered for instance by both the Soviets and US ). The hope of a WWIII just wreaking the Northern Hemisphere is just that, reality was both sides wanted to make sure if they were going down, nobody else got to "win".
What was the sense in that?
 

marktaha

Banned
Yes, he was involved in a failed coup in 1957 that caused him to be kicked out of the Party entirely. He was let back in later with Molotov and a few others but by then he was in his nineties and no longer had any interest in power. It is said that he changed temperament and manner considerably, becoming a much more involved grandfather and patriarch of the household, so quite a nice character arc )
A great consolation to the Ukrainians.
 
Chapter IV: Day Two, November 11th 1983.
It's time for an update. Now I've done a bit of reading up on US and Soviet nuclear doctrine and plans. While it's true standard Soviet doctrine was to liberally use tactical nukes, alternatives involving a limited nuclear war or just fighting a plain conventional war were developed in the 1970s. So if Moscow gives orders to that effect, the Soviet Army will have to carry them out. What I didn't find was evidence that the USSR would willy nilly nuke all possible surviving countries and take the world down with them. According to a declassified CIA file I found online, the Soviets might have nuked China and that was uncertain (I don't think they would have given that Sino-Soviet relations had normalized by the early 80s). As to the US nuking China, Chinese targets had been removed from SIOP in the 70s. Having said that, it's time to go continue:


Chapter IV: Day Two, November 11th 1983.

During the early morning hours of November 11th 1983, the fighting continued unabated. In the northern sectors the main concern was the fact that the 2nd Guards Army was driving a wedge between Dutch forces on the left bank of the river Elbe and Danish and West German forces on the right bank. If the 2nd Guards Army managed to reach the German North Sea coast, then the West German and Danish forces in Schleswig-Holstein would be cut off. Worse still, if the Soviets succeeded then the major German port of Hamburg would be lost too. Moreover, Denmark would be open to invasion. The city was an invaluable economic asset to West Germany and a logistical hub for NATO forces in northern Germany, so losing it wasn’t an option.

In the meantime, after the Fulda Gap Breakthrough, the subsequent Battle of Frankfurt was fast turning into the largest armoured battle ever. American armour tried to blunt the advancing Soviet spearheads north and south of the city, but only succeeded in slowing them down rather than stopping them. The American M60A3 tank and the Soviet T-72 seemed to be about evenly matched, but the M1 Abrams turned out to be superior to the Soviet mainstay by far (never mind older T-54/55s and T-62s still in use). Some M1 Abrams tanks destroyed a dozen Soviet tanks in a matter of hours, but swarms of them just kept coming.

On Friday November 11th at 04:00 AM, Western European time, Supreme Allied Commander Europe General Bernard W. Rogers reported from Supreme Headquarters Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) at Casteau, Belgium, that the situation was critical. Frankfurt would soon be surrounded and Rhein-Main Air Base would then be lost, despite the French 1st and 2nd Army Corps arriving at the frontlines as reinforcements. The far more important implication of this was the Northern Army Group (NORTHAG) and the Central Army Group (CENTAG) would be separated if the Soviets reached the Rhine. The West German 2nd Panzergrenadier Division, the US 11th Armoured Cavalry Regiment, the US 1st Armour and 3rd Infantry Division and the West German 12th Panzer Division had all practically been obliterated by now and were retreating in disarray to connect with other units still fighting. Rogers emphasized the enemy would reach the Rhine if nothing was done, which would constitute a Soviet victory.

In the hours that followed, as the sun rose over the battlefield, the seemingly inexorable Soviet advance continued, seemingly unstoppable. Fierce fighting in the north couldn’t prevent the enemy spearheads from coming to within a few kilometres of Hamburg, leading to fears that the city itself would become a battleground. As noon approached that seemed more and more likely. It was the same with Frankfurt as the bottleneck that NATO forces were fighting to keep open kept shrinking during the day.

President Reagan was under intense pressure to go nuclear, pressure that increased as more and more negative battlefield reports came in during the night of November 11th (late in the evening of November 10th Washington Time due to the time difference with Europe). Battlefield commanders wanted permission to use tactical nuclear weapons at their discretion to halt the Soviet advance in West Germany. Moreover, Chief of Staff of the United States Air Force General Charles A. Gabriel reported that part of his B-52 nuclear armed strategic bombers had been loitering for so long in holding patterns near Soviet airspace that they had to refuel aerially. Gabriel had remained at the headquarters of Strategic Air Command (SAC) at Offutt Air Force Base in Nebraska. General Gabriel repeatedly requested Reagan’s permission to make sure “Russian will only be spoken in hell once we’re through with them” (quoting Admiral “Bull” Halsey, who had said the same about Japanese in WW II). Despite all this pressure, Reagan intended to firmly keep any decision concerning the use of any nuclear weapon his own decision for now. A general release permission could result in the hell on Earth he was still hoping to avoid.

Wanting to consult on the use of tactical nuclear weapons, Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher contacted Reagan directly by phone over a secure line at 09:00 AM Greenwich time (02:00 AM at the Cheyenne Mountain Complex, 10:00 AM in West Germany). Thatcher was calling from the Central Government War Headquarters near the English town of Corsham in the county of Wiltshire. There she was secure in her survival, that of the British government, her majesty Queen Elizabeth II, Prince Charles, Princess Diana and the rest of the royal family. Blast-proof and self-sufficient, the complex could accommodate up to 4.000 people in complete isolation from the outside world for up to three months. The underground city was equipped with all the facilities needed to survive: from hospitals, canteens, kitchens and laundries to storerooms for supplies, accommodation areas and offices. An underground lake and treatment plant could provide drinking water, and twelve tanks could store the fuel required to keep the four generators in the underground power station running for up to three months.

She too realized the truth that Reagan knew and struggled to accept. Without the use of nuclear weapons on the battlefield to stop the advancing Soviets, NATO forces in West Germany would be cut in three: West German and Danish forces that would most likely be forced to withdraw into Denmark; the Dutch, West German, British and Belgian forces resorting under NORTHAG; and the American and West German forces belonging to CENTAG. She pointed this out to Reagan, who responded that he was well aware of how badly things were going and required no reminder. He emphasized further that he’d do what was needed to save West Germany.

Thatcher was satisfied by the US President’s reaction and responded that not resorting to radical action by using everything in the NATO arsenal was no option anymore, because otherwise West Germany would be conquered by the enemy. To her remark about “everything in the NATO arsenal” he added the caveat that he hadn’t signed on to a full scale first strike against the USSR, saying he wouldn’t commit genocide. Other than that Reagan agreed with her, but was nonetheless a bit taken aback by her announcement of her intention to use a tactical nuclear weapon to save Hamburg. She, however, pointed out that the Soviets had already used weapons of mass destruction (chemical weapons) and that the West was well within its right to retaliate. She wasn’t called “the iron lady” for nothing. Mitterand for his part reiterated that France would use its nuclear weapons, if nuclear weapons were used against France first.

Accepting the unfortunate truth that winning this war would take more than conventional weapons, Reagan first had Thatcher agree to an ultimatum to give Moscow one last chance to stop this. They informed the other NATO countries, who had also been drawing their own conclusions on stopping the Warsaw Pact. The ultimatum stated that NATO would use “any means necessary” to stop the Soviets from reaching the Rhine and capturing Hamburg, which included “utter annihilation”. NATO demanded that the Soviets halted their advance so ceasefire negotiations could begin at a neutral venue. The ultimatum was released at noon Western European time. By then it was 04:00 AM at the Cheyenne Mountain Complex and the exhausted, dreary eyed Reagan went to sleep. He had barely slept during the past 31 hours and had had one coffee pot after the other to stay awake. He knew the ultimatum gave the Soviets twelve hours to respond.

As unstoppable as the Soviet steamroller appeared, Commander of the Group of Soviet Forces in Germany General Mikhail Zaitsev was concerned. Inordinate amounts of artillery shells and rockets were being expended to the point that stocks were rapidly being depleted. Soviet artillery batteries and multiple rocket launchers had to be conservative in their fire support. Besides that, the tank losses in the armoured battle shaping up around Frankfurt were rising at an alarming rate with more tanks being lost than the number of replacements arriving at the front.

Pointing out the NATO ultimatum, Zaitsev argued Soviet forces should pre-empt the enemy’s use of tactical nuclear weapons with their own and wanted carte blanche to use them. He believed that this way he could smooth over the mounting difficulties his troops were facing and demonstrate Soviet resolve in the face of Western intimidation. The Gang of Eight discussed the ultimatum and considered it a bluff, to the frustration of Zaitsev when he was informed of this. He was ordered to continue as planned, using Polish and Czechoslovakian reinforcements that would soon arrive to reinforce his front. Confidence definitely remained high in Moscow on Friday November 11th.

In the meantime the entire world looked on in suspense as news of the unfolding World War III came in through their television screens and radios during the evening hours of November 11th and the early morning hours of November 12th. Normally Friday night, particularly for young people, would be a night to go out. Today it wasn’t. Several countries had to impose martial law as people began hoarding, which sometimes escalated into looting and then rioting as riot police in full gear and mounted police arrived to disperse the looters. In many places economic activity came to a standstill as people didn’t go to work, instead choosing to stay at home to be with their families and to watch the news of the war or join their communities in church to pray. No-one could know that the beginning of the apocalypse was hours way and that the world would be unrecognizable once the storm had passed. The Third World War would change the world in more ways than the First and Second World Wars combined had ever done.
 
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If only the Soviets would accept the ultimatum. They've already taken territory and made their point (prevented the attack they thought Able Archer was). But I guess the "99 Kriegsminister" have a different calculus.
 
What if NATO chickens out and abandons FRG ? British army of the rhine retreat to France
US evacuates its forces to form a more defensible line west of the Rhine.
Germans can be nuked if needed with the advancing soviets
 

Pangur

Donor
What if NATO chickens out and abandons FRG ? British army of the rhine retreat to France
US evacuates its forces to form a more defensible line west of the Rhine.
Germans can be nuked if needed with the advancing soviets
If they did that abandons not just FRG but Denmark as well. It also makes NATO support for Norway questionable. I don't think it would be worth that cost
 
What if NATO chickens out and abandons FRG ? British army of the rhine retreat to France
US evacuates its forces to form a more defensible line west of the Rhine.
Germans can be nuked if needed with the advancing soviets
This actually brings up an interesting thought (obviously for another TL since Onkel WillIe has said this one will end in apocalypse).

What if the Soviets manage to take Germany up to the Rhine, but instead of giving up or suing for peace, NATO simply holds the line and uses its superior air and naval forces to pound the overstretched Soviets, who suffer exponentially growing morale and logistical problems. At the same time, the US military-industrial complex kicks in for European intervention: 3.0, this time to liberate Germany rather than defeat it. Nukes never get used because neither side is truly prepared to lose everything.
 
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Pangur

Donor
Well, I would trade one Norway over not getting nuked...
Lots of problems with that
Once you give in once then whats your threat worth ? Nothing which bizarrely makes nuclear war more likely
Denmark; any `peace' agreement with Ivan will include Greenland - Ivans military on Greenland
NATO ceases to exist which is not a good thing with a newly victorious Ivan in business. The other states or either cave in or play nice until they gets nukes
Whats to stop the French going nuclear?
The leadership of all the nations went through WW2. The Western nations minus the obvious ones were occupied. This is 1983, its a relatively recent event and these is no way they want a round 2
 
In the meantime, after the Fulda Gap Breakthrough, the subsequent Battle of Frankfurt was fast turning into the largest armoured battle ever. American armour tried to blunt the advancing Soviet spearheads north and south of the city, but only succeeded in slowing them down rather than stopping them. The American M60A3 tank and the Soviet T-72 seemed to be about evenly matched, but the M1 Abrams turned out to be superior to the Soviet mainstay by far (never mind older T-54/55s and T-62s still in use). Some M1 Abrams tanks destroyed a dozen Soviet tanks in a matter of hours, but swarms of them just kept coming.

Hmm, I'm going to make a nitpick, because I'm sure that the main enemy of the M1s will be the T-80s and T-64s. The T-72s were in service with the Germans and CGF. I'm talking about those whose arsenal can be used in the first two days.
 

Pangur

Donor
Hmm, I'm going to make a nitpick, because I'm sure that the main enemy of the M1s will be the T-80s and T-64s. The T-72s were in service with the Germans and CGF. I'm talking about those whose arsenal can be used in the first two days.
Surely what counts is that its the enemy tanks that on the battlefield facing the M1s are the main target as it were
 
Once on the Rhine, the Soviet Superiority with ATGMs and IADs, and artillery will make any attempted offensive across it a slaughter even if the bridges across stay up. It would take a prolonged shaping operation to even make it viable, it would be like trying D-Day 2.0.

It would be a better chance to invade through Turkey or Greece and fight to the Danube where you can deal some damage to Soviet fighting strength.

I don't even think the Liberal Democracies have the stomach for a war that would likely claim 1 million NATO lives minimum.
 
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