Settling Acounts: Drive to the east
- Thread starter Scarecrow
- Start date
Thande
Donor
That's more of a revanchist symbol, as in France after 1870. The statue in New York harbour is the "Statue of Remembrance", holding aloft the sword of vengeance. I find that a little too cute, particularly since the statue was built by Eiffel in OTL but the French are the USA's enemy in TTL.
Scarecrow said:
Just because the revolution failed in Russia theres nothing stopping communisms spread to China, after all Mao joined the party in July 1921, in Turtledove's world the revolution was still well under way at that point, and with a man of such "vision" as Mao even the lack of Soviet aid might not be a bar to his eventual success against both the Japanese empire and Chiang Kai Shek.
Its entirely possible also that the U.S might consider helping both anti-Japanese Chinese elements as they would certainly be having a tougher time of it in the Pacific than in our timeline. After all Japan have control both of the Dutch East Indies and the Phillipines before the outbreak of hostilities, with their added resources the U.S may well aid a "bandit" such as Mao with a large amount of men at his command.
Thande said:
Actually the Statue of Liberty was built by Auguste Bartholdi in OTL, not Eiffel...
csa945 said:
Hi, I'm new here, hope you guys don't mind me quoting an old post.
To answer the question: yes, I think the "Axis Powers" can win, and in fact, I think they WILL win.
To explain why:
- They *will* win because Turtledove has a habit of reversing What Actually Happened.
i.e. - USA wins the Civil War in OTL, CSA wins in his.
- Allies win WW1 in OTL, Central Powers win in his.
The logical extension of this would be for fascism to triumph instead of democracy as in OTL.
Now, to why I think the CSA and their pals can win:
1) The CSA has done the key thing they need to do to have a chance: splitting the USA into 3 pieces. (I say 3 because in addition to slicing up Ohio, they've effectively also sliced the USA through Utah).
Turtledove has consistently used Irving Morrell - the most credible military mind in the series - to demonstrate that the CSA's strategy is a good one. One look at a map tells us that he's right.
2) The USA, unlike the Russians in OTL, don't have a lot of territory to fall back into, nor do they have a Russian winter to stop the Confederates. If they don't have time or the industrial capacity to re-arm, they will lose. Hence the upcoming Confederate "Drive To The East".
I agree, simply on geographical grounds, that Pittsburgh will be the stand-in for Stalingrad. The CSA can't move east any further south than Pittsburgh (due to the unfavorable terrain) and they can't *not* take the city.
3) The Confederate problem has always been a lack of manpower. But Turtledove slipped a line in "Return Engagement" about how the Confederates are using Mexicans as second-line troops. If the Confederates can get the Mexican units up to snuff (and Hop Rodriguez proves they're no less battle-worthy than anyone else) then all of a sudden the CSA's historical disadvantage disappears, and their advantage of holding Ohio becomes overwhelming.
4) The Japanese threat to the USA is greater than a lot of people realize. In OTL they lost at Midway, in this series they won that battle. Once/if they take Pearl Harbor, they can sail directly east and end up in Confederate Sonora. An attack on Los Angeles and southern California would then be pretty straightforward.
Logistically, this is difficult, but not impossible. Remember that the truncated alternate US Navy is split fighting the Royal Navy, the Confederates AND the Japanese. The Japanese, by contrast, have no one in their backyard to worry about, being allied to both Britain (Australia) and Russia. Not to mention the US Navy will soon start facing supply issues with the Confederates holding onto Ohio.
I agree an attack (Japanese and/or Russian) down through Alaska or from the west coast of Canada is not realistic. A Japanese landing in British Columbia is technically possible but they'd have a heck of a time pulling it off, as the USA could defend it vigorously without a lot of troops, and even if the Japanese got ashore, they'd pretty much be stuck in Vancouver (again, due to geography)
5) The USA is simply out-numbered. Their adversaries include:
- The CSA, 35 million
- The UK and France, 35 million each
- Russia, 150 million
- Japan, 100 million
- Possibly Italy, another 35 million.
Against this, the USA would be about 65 million (or so), Germany would be another 75 million, with Austria-Hungary at about 50 million. But A-H is likely to be the "corpse" they were in OTL WW1.
And the "Axis" powers have the initiative. They are in German and USA territory. In OTL it was the other way around.
Yes, the USA is likely to develop the nuclear bomb. But in OTL they could only develop 2, and that was with the entire "real" USA's population and industrial might working all-out, and NOT under occupation from the enemy.
In the ATL, they are unlikely to be able to make more than 2 or maybe 3 bombs, and while that will cause massive destruction in the CSA, it won't tip the balance. It WILL provoke the Confederates to build their own bombs and retaliate, though.
6) In OTL, the Russians were not ready for Hitler, and when he did invade, they had to hold their best units in reserve in Siberia to face a possible Japanese attack. Not this time - in the ATL the entire Russian army could invade Germany from the get-go. And we know that in OTL Germany eventually could not withstand the Russian onslaught, even though the Russians suffered such massive early losses.
With Germany out of the fight, it'll be back to the "2nd Mexican War" when the CSA got the help of outsiders - i.e. Britain - in their fight against the USA. And I suspect Britain will be eager to lend a hand, especially since the USA still occupies Canada.
Don't get me wrong, I don't cheer for fascists, not even in alternate universes - but I do think we're going to see them win and then see Turtledove's vision of a post WW2 world dominated by fascism.
Actually, the U.S. Population is around 100 million and the CSA population would not exceed 45 million.
hey montyburns, welcome.
now then, on to buisness. HT doesnt realy write Alternate History, he writes Analogus History. the other books have proved this. now i dont think Germanys going down anytime soon, or the Richmond-London-Paris-Rome-St Petersburg-Tokyo axis will win, and heres why.
Russia: this is a russia which has suffered years of disastererous civil war, plus, the treaty of Brest Livok took away a hell of alot of Russian industry and farming, perticulaly in the Urakrane. now in OTL the Ukrane went back in the fold of russia, where colectivisation and industrialisation by the Soviets pulled their country into a shape that could push back the Germans by having the actual weapons, not just numbers.
now in TTL Germany has the Ukraine. no doublt they have been ruthlessly been ruthlessly exploiting it. now in Return Engagements, Russia is said to have pushed into Germany, but they did that at the start of WW1, with the same tactics. lots of man power. yes the russians have more manpower then the Germans, but the germans would have much better equipmwnt and training, so jus tlike in ww1, the russians will be pushed back.
the dropping of 2 or 3 bombs will force them to build thier own!?! Featherston turned down a CSA scientest who wanted to reserch nukes. there is no way the CSA could build nukes, especialy after 3 have been dropped on their cities. germany will prob. get the bomb, drop it on England, and the US will have to defeat the CSA the way it did in OTL, in a long hard slog. the CSA has to do its holocost of the blacks as well. that will suck in troops.
Japan. Japan has Chinas rebels to deal with. with the Russians moving forces west into Europe, the Russian Maritime Province and other east Siberian stuf would be a lot easer and atractive to the Japs then to send troops to America.
population numbers dont win a war. csa knows this, and thats why they have machine guns and stuff, to put more lead in the air then the US.
hmmm. how is Italy's population going to effect the War in America? the other naval powers are weakened after WWI, and they are fighting the German High Fleet. population doesnt make a victor. China must have a big pop in TTL, but yet the Japs still managed to defeat them.
hope i wasnt to rude monty, and once again. welcome to AH.
now then, on to buisness. HT doesnt realy write Alternate History, he writes Analogus History. the other books have proved this. now i dont think Germanys going down anytime soon, or the Richmond-London-Paris-Rome-St Petersburg-Tokyo axis will win, and heres why.
Russia: this is a russia which has suffered years of disastererous civil war, plus, the treaty of Brest Livok took away a hell of alot of Russian industry and farming, perticulaly in the Urakrane. now in OTL the Ukrane went back in the fold of russia, where colectivisation and industrialisation by the Soviets pulled their country into a shape that could push back the Germans by having the actual weapons, not just numbers.
now in TTL Germany has the Ukraine. no doublt they have been ruthlessly been ruthlessly exploiting it. now in Return Engagements, Russia is said to have pushed into Germany, but they did that at the start of WW1, with the same tactics. lots of man power. yes the russians have more manpower then the Germans, but the germans would have much better equipmwnt and training, so jus tlike in ww1, the russians will be pushed back.
the dropping of 2 or 3 bombs will force them to build thier own!?! Featherston turned down a CSA scientest who wanted to reserch nukes. there is no way the CSA could build nukes, especialy after 3 have been dropped on their cities. germany will prob. get the bomb, drop it on England, and the US will have to defeat the CSA the way it did in OTL, in a long hard slog. the CSA has to do its holocost of the blacks as well. that will suck in troops. Japan. Japan has Chinas rebels to deal with. with the Russians moving forces west into Europe, the Russian Maritime Province and other east Siberian stuf would be a lot easer and atractive to the Japs then to send troops to America.
population numbers dont win a war. csa knows this, and thats why they have machine guns and stuff, to put more lead in the air then the US.
hmmm. how is Italy's population going to effect the War in America? the other naval powers are weakened after WWI, and they are fighting the German High Fleet. population doesnt make a victor. China must have a big pop in TTL, but yet the Japs still managed to defeat them.
hope i wasnt to rude monty, and once again. welcome to AH.
I agree with Scarecrow in this matter.
The Japanese might pull of a quite successful naval war, but that's it. By no means will they be able to land a considerable number of troops in America.
In Europe, Germany will suffer terribly, but probably stop the attacks. They have the largest military in Europe (even if they might have some outdated tactics) a´nd by far the largest industrial base. In TTL, there have not been any reparations and Rhineland and Saar occupation, and no handing over of parts of Silesia to Poland. Instead, the Germans even took parts of Lorraine and Belgium, adding further industry and depriving the enemies of that production capacity. Even if they now lost Belgium and parts of Ukraine, their mainland is almost intact. Bombing will cause damage, sure, but not enough to disable the production. Also the High Seas Fleet will still exist, whereas the UK likely will have had to comply with certain peace treaty obligations.
Concerning the US, they do have a lot of territoy, and they have more production power than the CSA. After all, where does the CSA get its raw materials such as iron ore, nitrate, aluminimum, etc.? Especially as there are less large cities in the CSA, they are likely to suffer more from bombing raids than the US. Finally, the atomic bomb will be developed and dropped, and that's it.
The Japanese might pull of a quite successful naval war, but that's it. By no means will they be able to land a considerable number of troops in America.
In Europe, Germany will suffer terribly, but probably stop the attacks. They have the largest military in Europe (even if they might have some outdated tactics) a´nd by far the largest industrial base. In TTL, there have not been any reparations and Rhineland and Saar occupation, and no handing over of parts of Silesia to Poland. Instead, the Germans even took parts of Lorraine and Belgium, adding further industry and depriving the enemies of that production capacity. Even if they now lost Belgium and parts of Ukraine, their mainland is almost intact. Bombing will cause damage, sure, but not enough to disable the production. Also the High Seas Fleet will still exist, whereas the UK likely will have had to comply with certain peace treaty obligations.
Concerning the US, they do have a lot of territoy, and they have more production power than the CSA. After all, where does the CSA get its raw materials such as iron ore, nitrate, aluminimum, etc.? Especially as there are less large cities in the CSA, they are likely to suffer more from bombing raids than the US. Finally, the atomic bomb will be developed and dropped, and that's it.
Thande
Donor
I agree with Scarecrow: HT writes Analogous history and thus the Allies will lose, regardless of whether it's realistic or not. Someone mentioned that they think Britain is the 'Japan' of this timeline...if HT carries it on into the 60s, does that mean we get to dominate the automotive and electronic industries?
member
I want to dispute previous conclusions that title 'drive to the east' means confederate attack toward east and battle of Pittsburgh. Turtledove obviously is writing mirror image of WW2 with many parallels but I don't see him slaved to actual campaigns. Especially in this case I don't see what would be actual objective of the attack. So far confederates have been rational in their war. Attack to the Lake Erie had definite objective: to cut most important lines of communication between east and west USA and to make industrial mobilization difficult. Of course, I am not american but what is so important about Pittsburgh that they would attack against prepared enemy with more man if not as many barrels as CSA. Which brings me to my point. As I see it they woud have much more important objective at north. They shoud trie to cut shipping lines over the lakes and conquer important industrial cities west to the Lake Erie, most importantly Pontiac. Maybe the terrain don*t favor that attack but objective would make more sense. That's why I think 'drive to the east' might actually mean USA counteroffensive against CSA salient from the west. Do not forget that Turtledove has been making a point that center of USA barrel production is in Pontiac and problem is not production, it's getting barrels to the east. Don't also forget that there is newly promoted general who just might decide to the advantage of the fact to prepare proper offensive. After all, Morrell has been prepared to be great general through whole series and now would be his chance. Cutting whole salient in great barrel offensive from west to east would be just his style. Well, there was my two cents worth.
I want to dispute previous conclusions that title 'drive to the east' means confederate attack toward east and battle of Pittsburgh. Turtledove obviously is writing mirror image of WW2 with many parallels but I don't see him slaved to actual campaigns. Especially in this case I don't see what would be actual objective of the attack. So far confederates have been rational in their war. Attack to the Lake Erie had definite objective: to cut most important lines of communication between east and west USA and to make industrial mobilization difficult. Of course, I am not american but what is so important about Pittsburgh that they would attack against prepared enemy with more man if not as many barrels as CSA. Which brings me to my point. As I see it they woud have much more important objective at north. They shoud trie to cut shipping lines over the lakes and conquer important industrial cities west to the Lake Erie, most importantly Pontiac. Maybe the terrain don*t favor that attack but objective would make more sense. That's why I think 'drive to the east' might actually mean USA counteroffensive against CSA salient from the west. Do not forget that Turtledove has been making a point that center of USA barrel production is in Pontiac and problem is not production, it's getting barrels to the east. Don't also forget that there is newly promoted general who just might decide to the advantage of the fact to prepare proper offensive. After all, Morrell has been prepared to be great general through whole series and now would be his chance. Cutting whole salient in great barrel offensive from west to east would be just his style. Well, there was my two cents worth.