Now, the battle was a long-term Ottoman victory, what if the Serbians had won that battle.
Serbian Principality wins the Battle of Kosovo
- Thread starter Historyman 14
- Start date
Assuming 1389.
A Serbian victory would have to be total in order for anything meaningful to happen (the nationalistic importance of this battle nonwithstanding). Maritsa in 1371 had wiped out the flower of the Serbian nobility; Kosovo would wipe out the Serbian army.
A victory at Kosovo, with even similar casualties as OTL, would only be pyrrhic for the Serbs. The death of Murad I did not cause any unrest in the Ottoman lands OTL, unlikely it would do so in this timeline (after all, the Ottomans had lost to the Serbs prior at Kosovo). The Ottomans would come back for more, Bayezid I was pretty competent as a general, and Lazar wouldn't have had enough time to deal with his unruly nobles. So you'd have another battle, and another and another... until the Serbs lose.
A total victory at Kosovo, so like no Serb casualties for tremendous Ottoman casualties, would probably not have been that much more different. Perhaps the Byzantine Empire would take the chance to declare war once more on the Ottomans, which would delay the Turks for another couple of years while they conquered Greece. This could have given enough time for the Serbs to put themselves under Hungarian protection while Boniface IX declares the Nicopolis Crusade. Then it's all a question of whether Nicopolis works out for the Crusaders.
A Serbian victory would have to be total in order for anything meaningful to happen (the nationalistic importance of this battle nonwithstanding). Maritsa in 1371 had wiped out the flower of the Serbian nobility; Kosovo would wipe out the Serbian army.
A victory at Kosovo, with even similar casualties as OTL, would only be pyrrhic for the Serbs. The death of Murad I did not cause any unrest in the Ottoman lands OTL, unlikely it would do so in this timeline (after all, the Ottomans had lost to the Serbs prior at Kosovo). The Ottomans would come back for more, Bayezid I was pretty competent as a general, and Lazar wouldn't have had enough time to deal with his unruly nobles. So you'd have another battle, and another and another... until the Serbs lose.
A total victory at Kosovo, so like no Serb casualties for tremendous Ottoman casualties, would probably not have been that much more different. Perhaps the Byzantine Empire would take the chance to declare war once more on the Ottomans, which would delay the Turks for another couple of years while they conquered Greece. This could have given enough time for the Serbs to put themselves under Hungarian protection while Boniface IX declares the Nicopolis Crusade. Then it's all a question of whether Nicopolis works out for the Crusaders.
Any chance that with a crushing Serbian victory, Lazar is able to negotiate a mutual surrender, where the Ottomans grant a Serbian state autonomy and religious freedom, while the Serbs recognize Ottoman overlordship and offer to contribute troops to the Ottoman campaigns?
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
Have the Serbs win at Maritsa or avoid that battle in the first place, and then they could still win at Kosovo.
Why would anyone offer to recognize foreign overlordship after a crushing victory?
Also, wouldn't the Ottomans just screw them over and take Serbia once the opportunity comes up? That's pretty much what they did to quite a few of their vassals.
What is the Serbs capture the Sultan Murad instead of him being killed or fleeing? They might be able to negotiate a favorable arrangement that could buy them a decade or two. If Tamerlane still invades Anatolia in 1402 and destroys Bayezid, that might gives the Serbs opportunity to expand and even drive the Ottomans out of Europe, perhaps in cooperation with other powers.
Well, you could always have Murat, Bayazid and Yakub all losing their lives in the battle (not unlikely in the case of Serbian total victory).
This would likely cause a civil war, or at the very least, a significant slowing down of the Ottomans (the death of the Sultan and his likeliest and oldest heirs).
In this case, Lazar can forge alliances with Hungary for example, but this victory also allows him, through vastly increased reputation, to "bring back into the fold" all the various regional lords that became Ottoman vassals.
Of course, the dynamic between Tvrtko and Lazar has suddenly become even more interesting.
This would likely cause a civil war, or at the very least, a significant slowing down of the Ottomans (the death of the Sultan and his likeliest and oldest heirs).
In this case, Lazar can forge alliances with Hungary for example, but this victory also allows him, through vastly increased reputation, to "bring back into the fold" all the various regional lords that became Ottoman vassals.
Of course, the dynamic between Tvrtko and Lazar has suddenly become even more interesting.
What really stopped the Serbs (or anybody else acatually) to do something after 1402 OTL anyway?
Cuāuhtemōc
Banned
Because it wasn't strong enough to defeat the Ottomans, divided as they were for eleven years. The Byzantines didn't do much but offer support to whom they thought to be the victor so I assume the Serbs did the same, hoping to secure some sort of deal.
Because they think it's a better deal than they would have gotten otherwise and that things will probably get worse again very soon.
That kind of (relative, since it would likely backfire) far-sightedness wasn't very common in medieval rulers, I think.
It's easier to imagine some kind of a coalition of Bosnian, Serbian and Bulgarian rulers being formed. Just how successful that coalition would be in resisting the Ottomans is another question entirely.
MarshalBraginsky
Banned
If the Serbs did win the Battle of Kosovo, that might be one less legend they'll have to tell.