Al Smith is explicitly the first Catholic president, which takes Walsh out, I think.

Based on your reasoning, I think Baker may be the frontrunner (given KingSweden's love of Georgists and all that). Although, if Smith is already going to be president, and a one-term tradition is being established ITTL, and TTL's 1920's are being set up to be the polar opposite of the OTL 1920's, why not have the three failed Democratic nominees of the the OTL 1920's as the presidents?
James M. Cox, 1921-1925 (as a side note, I don't actually think I've ever seen a TL where Cox wins)
John W. Davis, 1925-1929
Al Smith, 1929-1933

The main obstacle, I think, is that Davis may perhaps be too conservative for TTL's 1920's political zeitgeist, and I'm not sure Cox or especially Smith would be enthused at retiring after just one term.
I encourage everyone to look up the various political stances John W. Davis held over the decades. Dude’s career was an ideological rollercoaster.
 
Is the next update (your return) happening on the fifth of may?
😆
May be before then, just taking a mental health break for a minute, editing/revising for the next Amazon tranche, and planning out the CEW a bit so it doesn’t become a slog like the GAW.
Thinking on the 1920 election,

We know Frank Lowden is going to be the hapless Liberal, he straddles the old-guard/moderate line, is amendable to both Eastern finance and Midwestern/Western agriculture, a perfectly fine candidate in normal times after four years of Root he's going to be on the wrong end of a landslide.

It also means every Democrat and their mother is going to be running for the 1920s nomination, and we also know that after three runs of Hearst and another of McClellan, New York's Democrats have had their time in the sun, but if Democrats can't get NY's 63 EVs, they'll at least have to get Ohio's 32. So the party's candidate needs to run strongly in the Midwest.

Logically that would means the next nominee would be steered to either the number 2 man on McClellan's ticket, the Senator from Ohio, Newton D. Baker or the state's Governor James M. Cox. Baker is the well-spoken protege of Hearst's old Veep Tom Johnson, a Georgist, and a progressive in the Jeffersonian mold. OTL the much talked about stop-FDR candidate at the 1932 DNC, here he's the logical pick for a Democratic convention, as an eloquent orator from a key swing state, who's broadly amendable to the party at large (his support for the LoN which brought him Bill Hearst's ire OTL is presumably a non-issue here). What's stopping him from becoming the runaway front-runner is a historic disinterest in the job, which keeps him from becoming an overwhelming favorite and may lead to him pre-emptively withdrawing in favor of...

Governor James M. Cox, the OTL Democratic nominee in 1920. Fan of labor, progressives, Americanization, and Roosevelt. He shares much the same niche as Newton Baker but has shown greater interest in the Presidency. As a proven vote-getter in the Buckeye state that makes him both an attractive candidate and a broadly amenable figure to the ex-Populists in the Heartland, the Tammanies in the East, and the Progressives in between and out West.

Outside of the two Ohio men, there's the Plains/the Heartland/Flyover country, hater of monopoly, and railroad companies, lovers of farmers, farm subsidies, and price supports. Home to the ex-Populists of the Weaver-Bryanite tradition, bad blood from Bryan's role in attempting to usurp the man from the Empire State in 12' and in keeping the White House from Adlai the 1st in 00' likely going to prove as much of an obstacle to one of their candidates winning the nomination as much as their fear of and rivalry with the Tammanies out east.

Gilbert Hitchcock, Senator from Nebraska, and Bryan's old protege is likely to make a go of it, running firmly in the Populist tradition of the Boy Orator, he may be joined by Senator Thomas Walsh, Montana's Catholic Senator, who's ties with Labor, Progressives, and Suffragists, would make him a very attractive candidate if he came from state that could call upon more then 5 electoral votes. Their showing on the balloting will be there, but their path to the nomination is narrow enough without the Democrats from the Empire State distracted by internal feuding.

Champ Clark, is also likely to make a go of it, as Speaker of the House and one of the grand old men in the Democratic Party. Mostly acceptable to all it's wings, he runs into the problem of being 70 when the Democratic National Convention meets to select it's nominee and with a party filled with young blood itching to move forward past the Hearst and Hughes and Root years, I think his political half-life has passed him by.

Otherwise there's probably James Gerard as Tammany's favorite son. New Yorker's have had four bites of the apple, they aren't getting a 5th. Plus a broad smattering of favorite sons, including the Sinophobic Senators from the Pacific, and representatives of the Eastern states which are not the Empire state. Plus one or two men on horseback hoping that a chest full of stars will be a ticket to Lemon Hill and the Square Kilometer.

I'd be surprised if the party's next nominee and by extension the next President comes from outside the Buckeye state, I'd be very surprised if they came from outside the Midwest.
Good post! I'm thinking it has to be a guy from the West - the part of the country most loyal to and most responsible for Democratic success the past twenty-ish years.

I would have guessed Turner from Washington but it was mentioned he stays in the Senate post 1920. I have a soft spot for John Shafroth of Colorado and not just because he's got a great old school pushbroom stache. He's famous from being on the Lafollette Committee and seems like a guy on the upswing.
Outstanding analysis from you both!
Al Smith is explicitly the first Catholic president, which takes Walsh out, I think.

Based on your reasoning, I think Baker may be the frontrunner (given KingSweden's love of Georgists and all that). Although, if Smith is already going to be president, and a one-term tradition is being established ITTL, and TTL's 1920's are being set up to be the polar opposite of the OTL 1920's, why not have the three failed Democratic nominees of the the OTL 1920's as the presidents?
James M. Cox, 1921-1925 (as a side note, I don't actually think I've ever seen a TL where Cox wins)
John W. Davis, 1925-1929
Al Smith, 1929-1933

The main obstacle, I think, is that Davis may perhaps be too conservative for TTL's 1920's political zeitgeist, and I'm not sure Cox or especially Smith would be enthused at retiring after just one term.
Zero percent in Smith and likely Cox, agreed.

I have seen some “Cox wins” done before but it’s usually in the context of Charles Evans Hughes beating Wilson in ‘16 and getting the bulk of the post-WW1 blowback directed at the GOP
 
Has anything like the 1911 Parliament Act been passed in the UK, or is having a yellow House of Lords foreclosed on that?

Also I wonder how the Irish seats in the Commons will be evacuated, do they just leave when Ireland becomes a Dominion, or at the end of the parliamentary term? Also what would happen if they just left in early 1919, do the seats get reallocated proportionately to the Libs, Nats and SDLP, or does the seat count drop to 570 and Chamberlain now has a majority to work with?
 
Has anything like the 1911 Parliament Act been passed in the UK, or is having a yellow House of Lords foreclosed on that?
No, the Libs controlling Parliament for all but a three year stretch between 1878-1907 has essentially made the Lords a yellow redoubt. That advantage has begun to erode a bit with a more aggressive Tory/Nat party in the Curzon/Cecil years, and many of said Liberal Lords are of the more old-fashioned Whig/Unionist tradition rather than the Radicals, but the relationship isn’t near as hostile between the Houses.

Expect that to change once Jix rolls around, though.
Also I wonder how the Irish seats in the Commons will be evacuated, do they just leave when Ireland becomes a Dominion, or at the end of the parliamentary term? Also what would happen if they just left in early 1919, do the seats get reallocated proportionately to the Libs, Nats and SDLP, or does the seat count drop to 570 and Chamberlain now has a majority to work with?
This is a great question, and rest assured it’s going to rear its head very, very soon.
 
I feel like it could still be a New Yorker or something. Something about the election has to be bad enough to force an amendment getting rid of the electoral college. Maybe the Democratic candidates get shot or something leading to a crisis?
 
No, the Libs controlling Parliament for all but a three year stretch between 1878-1907 has essentially made the Lords a yellow redoubt. That advantage has begun to erode a bit with a more aggressive Tory/Nat party in the Curzon/Cecil years, and many of said Liberal Lords are of the more old-fashioned Whig/Unionist tradition rather than the Radicals, but the relationship isn’t near as hostile between the Houses.

Expect that to change once Jix rolls around, though.
At first I read that of course Jix is going to pack the Lords but I just had a thought, dunno if it will happen but.

What if becauase of that very Yellow Lords that JIX is the one to pass such an act.
 
I feel like it could still be a New Yorker or something. Something about the election has to be bad enough to force an amendment getting rid of the electoral college. Maybe the Democratic candidates get shot or something leading to a crisis?
I mean, New York being New York will still want to make their gamest attempt, even if most delegates will be resistant.
At first I read that of course Jix is going to pack the Lords but I just had a thought, dunno if it will happen but.

What if becauase of that very Yellow Lords that JIX is the one to pass such an act.
Hmm, there’s an idea.
 
Out of curiosity is there a genuine hard far-right in the USA af the moment, not simply ultraconservative Liberals but authoritarian, ultranationalist, democracy-agnostic or opposed figures sorta like what the Action Francaise is in France, or the multitude of OTL interwar fascist/ultranationalist groups (British Union of Fascists, Arrow Cross Party, Lapua Movement etc.) but in the USA?
 
Out of curiosity is there a genuine hard far-right in the USA af the moment, not simply ultraconservative Liberals but authoritarian, ultranationalist, democracy-agnostic or opposed figures sorta like what the Action Francaise is in France, or the multitude of OTL interwar fascist/ultranationalist groups (British Union of Fascists, Arrow Cross Party, Lapua Movement etc.) but in the USA?
I wouldn’t say so, but with qualifications.

The lack of a traditional landed aristocracy/nobility and a state Church eliminates much of the impulses that drove AF/Falangist thinking, and it’s hard for me to see a BUF/Arrow Cross analogue per se. The cultural differences between the US and Europe are, in the end, considerable.

That being said, the ADL and other smaller paramilitaries forming in the postwar years are meant to be an analogue for the Second Klan, which is obviously not exactly compatible with pluralistic democracy. So I’d say there’s definitely a strain of illiberal impulses emergent in the US, but nothing overtly authoritarian and hostile to democratic principles
 
I wouldn’t say so, but with qualifications.

The lack of a traditional landed aristocracy/nobility and a state Church eliminates much of the impulses that drove AF/Falangist thinking, and it’s hard for me to see a BUF/Arrow Cross analogue per se. The cultural differences between the US and Europe are, in the end, considerable.

That being said, the ADL and other smaller paramilitaries forming in the postwar years are meant to be an analogue for the Second Klan, which is obviously not exactly compatible with pluralistic democracy. So I’d say there’s definitely a strain of illiberal impulses emergent in the US, but nothing overtly authoritarian and hostile to democratic principles
So no rightist/third-positionist group advocating for corporatist economics wrapped up in a fascist/integralist/Falangist/organicist package beyond some marginal, super-fringe weirdos like an alt-Dudley Pelley
 
I wouldn’t say so, but with qualifications.

The lack of a traditional landed aristocracy/nobility and a state Church eliminates much of the impulses that drove AF/Falangist thinking, and it’s hard for me to see a BUF/Arrow Cross analogue per se. The cultural differences between the US and Europe are, in the end, considerable.

That being said, the ADL and other smaller paramilitaries forming in the postwar years are meant to be an analogue for the Second Klan, which is obviously not exactly compatible with pluralistic democracy. So I’d say there’s definitely a strain of illiberal impulses emergent in the US, but nothing overtly authoritarian and hostile to democratic principles
In the US, I view this as a reaction to the larger non-WASP immigration of the later 1800s and early 1900s. In our timeline, it sort of started with the know-nothings, but then that cross polinated with the Klan in the early 1900s, which won't occur here. The other piece to European Fascism of post-WWI is the desire to restore things to the way that they were in terms of Empire (of various forms), but the US really doesn't have this. They don't want the south back at this point, and I'm not sure that the US has lost any part of desired empire to be revanchist about. The USA has (mostly) put Bloc Sud in its place and it isn't like Brazil holds pre-war US Soil.

So if there is any echo in this direction it is likely to be some combination of the Know Nothings and OTL response to the "Yellow Peril" (on steroids) in some combination.

Which leads to the question, does the USA currently have the largest economy in the world?
 
In the US, I view this as a reaction to the larger non-WASP immigration of the later 1800s and early 1900s. In our timeline, it sort of started with the know-nothings, but then that cross polinated with the Klan in the early 1900s, which won't occur here. The other piece to European Fascism of post-WWI is the desire to restore things to the way that they were in terms of Empire (of various forms), but the US really doesn't have this. They don't want the south back at this point, and I'm not sure that the US has lost any part of desired empire to be revanchist about. The USA has (mostly) put Bloc Sud in its place and it isn't like Brazil holds pre-war US Soil.

So if there is any echo in this direction it is likely to be some combination of the Know Nothings and OTL response to the "Yellow Peril" (on steroids) in some combination.

Which leads to the question, does the USA currently have the largest economy in the world?

Honestly, considering that the immigration of Catholics to the US was larger than in OTL as well as the Liberal dominance of the US during that time - I'm actually somewhat surprised we didn't have a larger American Protective Association during the 1890s. Though I suppose this could be explained away by the disorganized state of the Democrats at the time, leading many APA-leaning people to not really fear that Catholics were trying to take over.

Bowers, the founder (an the son of an immigrant himself! Albeit a German Lutheran) passed away in 1911, so there is no chance for him to play a part in the 1920s nativism revival; but I suppose that remnants of the APA would probably play a role (though the organizaton, in OTL, was pretty much defunct by the time of Bowers' death)
 
So no rightist/third-positionist group advocating for corporatist economics wrapped up in a fascist/integralist/Falangist/organicist package beyond some marginal, super-fringe weirdos like an alt-Dudley Pelley
More or less.

Or, said otherwise, guys like Pelley are perhaps even more fringe in the context of the 1930s, but guys like DC Stephenson are maybe a hair less controversial in the context of the 1920s.
In the US, I view this as a reaction to the larger non-WASP immigration of the later 1800s and early 1900s. In our timeline, it sort of started with the know-nothings, but then that cross polinated with the Klan in the early 1900s, which won't occur here. The other piece to European Fascism of post-WWI is the desire to restore things to the way that they were in terms of Empire (of various forms), but the US really doesn't have this. They don't want the south back at this point, and I'm not sure that the US has lost any part of desired empire to be revanchist about. The USA has (mostly) put Bloc Sud in its place and it isn't like Brazil holds pre-war US Soil.

So if there is any echo in this direction it is likely to be some combination of the Know Nothings and OTL response to the "Yellow Peril" (on steroids) in some combination.
I agree with this analysis.
Which leads to the question, does the USA currently have the largest economy in the world?
In 1918? Probably, depending on how you count the British Empire’s Dominions.

In 2024? Also yes.
Honestly, considering that the immigration of Catholics to the US was larger than in OTL as well as the Liberal dominance of the US during that time - I'm actually somewhat surprised we didn't have a larger American Protective Association during the 1890s. Though I suppose this could be explained away by the disorganized state of the Democrats at the time, leading many APA-leaning people to not really fear that Catholics were trying to take over.

Bowers, the founder (a the son of an immigrant himself! Albeit a German Lutheran) passed away in 1911, so there is no chance for him to play a part in the 1920s nativism revival; but I suppose that remnants of the APA would probably play a role (though the organizaton, in OTL, was pretty much defunct by the time of Bowers' death)
Interestingly enough, in revising the 1890s chunk of material, the APA came up, but I never really did much with it.
 
More or less.

Or, said otherwise, guys like Pelley are perhaps even more fringe in the context of the 1930s, but guys like DC Stephenson are maybe a hair less controversial in the context of the 1920s.

I agree with this analysis.

In 1918? Probably, depending on how you count the British Empire’s Dominions.

In 2024? Also yes.

Interestingly enough, in revising the 1890s chunk of material, the APA came up, but I never really did much with it.
the question would have been intended for 1918, but good to know for 2024 as well. Note I *think* the British Empire is *slightly* poorer than Otl without some pieces of South Africa and Suez, but I guess they've got some Africa that they don't iOtl. On the other hand, if the Russian Empire rolled all 6s from now on, I could see them being ahead of the USA. I'm not sure other than Control of Constantinople how much larger the Russians *want* to expand their empire. I presume that literally everyone in Europe doesn't want to see the Russians with either control of Constantinople *or* Persia as a completely Russian Puppet. (though it feels like the Russian German treaty gave up Germany's right to care)
 
the question would have been intended for 1918, but good to know for 2024 as well. Note I *think* the British Empire is *slightly* poorer than Otl without some pieces of South Africa and Suez, but I guess they've got some Africa that they don't iOtl. On the other hand, if the Russian Empire rolled all 6s from now on, I could see them being ahead of the USA. I'm not sure other than Control of Constantinople how much larger the Russians *want* to expand their empire. I presume that literally everyone in Europe doesn't want to see the Russians with either control of Constantinople *or* Persia as a completely Russian Puppet. (though it feels like the Russian German treaty gave up Germany's right to care)
OTL US GDP overtook the entire British Empire in 1916. TTL, without Suez, I'd say it's very possible that the same thing would've happened
 
OTL US GDP overtook the entire British Empire in 1916. TTL, without Suez, I'd say it's very possible that the same thing would've happened
It's hard to compare millions of square kilometers full of subsistence farmers and tribal people with an Industrial Colossus like the USA or Germany.
 
the question would have been intended for 1918, but good to know for 2024 as well. Note I *think* the British Empire is *slightly* poorer than Otl without some pieces of South Africa and Suez, but I guess they've got some Africa that they don't iOtl.
A big deal, indeed.
On the other hand, if the Russian Empire rolled all 6s from now on, I could see them being ahead of the USA. I'm not sure other than Control of Constantinople how much larger the Russians *want* to expand their empire. I presume that literally everyone in Europe doesn't want to see the Russians with either control of Constantinople *or* Persia as a completely Russian Puppet. (though it feels like the Russian German treaty gave up Germany's right to care)
Russia would have to roll a whole lot of 6s for that to happen. But, yes, Germany has sort of foresworn any ability to intervene in the Near East, though they had no particular interests in Persia anyways.
OTL US GDP overtook the entire British Empire in 1916. TTL, without Suez, I'd say it's very possible that the same thing would've happened
Question is if UK sans Suez deducts more than US sans the whole of the South
 
Just my 2 cents

- The British Empire is probable a little poorer than OTL now, but the prospect for the future seem that things will not be good, not only because after the CEW London will need to deal with the nightmare of a single nation controlling Europe and we can expect the usual rational and thoughtfull reaction at this (expecially with the advance in aviation that will make the British city juicy target), so i can see a lot of investment in the military instead of civilian. But also because it seem that the UK is lagging behind the rest of the continent in term of tech and education IRC.

- Well also the USA are poorer than OTL and at the moment probably even poorer of the British Empire, not for the simple lack of the south but also due to the military expense before the war (unlike OTL they needed a standing army) and the war has been very expensive in both blood and treasure and at that we must also add the occupation with all the nasty fight with the southerns guerrillas and the postwar Melloneconomics...sure the CEW helped rebuilding the economy but will have not made the miracle as unlike OTL the various partecipant had other that can fullfill their orders and so they will split the rewards and will be impossible make the price
 
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