So, what if, upon hearing of the German invasion of Poland, Romania acknoledges its close relationship with that country and officially joins the Allies and declares war? How would Hitler and Stalin react to this new sudden enemy to the Molotov-Ribbentrop division of Eastern Europe, and how would the countries with claims on Romania (Hungary, Bulgaria) react?
September 3, 1939: Romania Declares War on Germany
- Thread starter luakel
- Start date
IDK. If Romania, with its long ingrained fear of Communist Russia, attacked both Germany and Russia, wouldn't it be signing its death warrent? The Soviets would probably annex it outright if the Nazis couldn't manage it.
Well, I was thinking that they would attack Germany only (at least at first), but that brings up an interesting question in its own right: WI Romania declared war on the Soviet Union on September 18, 1939 in response to that country invading Poland the day before? Since Germany is almost done with Poland by this point, it raises the question of whether they would try to support Romania in some way or just let them be crushed and encourage their allies in the region to take some slices of Romania land while they can.
fenkmaster said:Well, Romania has a history of doing that in World Wars, see 1916 for details.
Well, that's what happens when you support the wrong side in a war. Romania should have pick its sides better. Or just stayed neutral.
POD: Instead of becoming overconfident after the decapitation of much of the Iron Guard's leadership in November 1938, Prime Minister Armand Calinescu and King Carol order another purge of the Iron Guard and their supporters in the April of 1939. Horia Sima and Ion Antonescu are executed for treason.
April-July 1939: Calinescu ensures that the Iron Guard will no longer trouble Romania by conducted a ruthless extermination campaign against the Iron Guards. He also cements ties with Poland, signing a mutual defense pact in June. These actions do not endear him to Hitler, and several assasination attempts orchestrated by German operatives fail. While Calinescu publicizes these assasination attempts as best he can, nothing will deter Hitler from pursuing a path of aggression.
August 23, 1939: The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact occurs on schedule. Nazi Germany agrees to a partition of Poland slightly more favorable to the Russians in exchange for having all of Romania except Bessarabia included in the German sphere of influence.
August 24, 1939: Poland and Romania begin mobilization to defend against what is obviously an imminent threat. Unfortunately, guarantees of Romanian assistance ensure that the Polish armies are deployed even farther west along the Polish Corridor when the war begins.
August 26, 1939: Encouraged by Hitler, Hungary begins mobilizing it troops and sending them towards the Romanian border.
August 30, 1939: The first Romanian units begin entering Poland.
September 1, 1939: The German invasion of Poland begins.
September 3, 1939: Romania declares war on Germany.
Differences from OTL:
Germany
Hitler is determined to defeat upstart Romania immediately after finishing off Poland. As a result, all of the Group reserves from Army Group North (1 panzer division, 3 infantry divisions) have been pulled to the front lines of Army Group South, and VII Corps (OTL reserve for Army Group South, 2 infantry divisions) will be right in the thick of things from the get go.
Poland
The Karpaty Army has been reinforced by the elite Romanian 2nd Mountain Brigade. The reserve Lublin Army has had the Romanian 2nd Infantry Division added. Prusy Army (the General Reserve) has been increased by the addition of the Romanian 14th Infantry Division, plus all of its units have been mobilized, as opposed to OTL where it was disorganized and never fully mobilized. In addition a "Lwow Army" consisting of the Romanian 6th and 16th Infantry Divisions as well as four cavalry brigades is in position at Lwow, in southeastern Poland.
Romania
In addition to the four infantry divisions, four cavalry brigades, and mountain brigade deployed in Poland, ten infantry divisions, five cavalry brigades, and an armored regiment have been stationed to defend against the impending Hungarian attack. Three infantry divisions and two cavalry brigades are stationed in Bessarabia and Bukovina to defend against any Soviet "stab", while four infantry divisions and two cavalry brigades are concentrated around Bucharest as a reserve group.
Hungary
With mobilization nearly complete, Hungary is poised to begin an offensive into Romania at the earliest favorable opportunity.
USSR
The USSR is preparing to assault Poland once a German victory is ensured, as in OTL. Stalin intends to wait until after Germany has done the hard work in subduing Romania before sweeping in and occupying Bessarabia.
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So, any ideas on what happens now? I personally could see a very ill-timed offensive by the Poznan Army into Germany after a couple of days, since the progress of Army Group North will be slowed down by the increase of forces in Army Group South and an overall increase in Polish troops as they are already mobilized. The extra advantages Poland has due to being prepared earlier and aided by an ally may be nullified by a false sense of security, enacted upon by incompetent strategic decisions.
April-July 1939: Calinescu ensures that the Iron Guard will no longer trouble Romania by conducted a ruthless extermination campaign against the Iron Guards. He also cements ties with Poland, signing a mutual defense pact in June. These actions do not endear him to Hitler, and several assasination attempts orchestrated by German operatives fail. While Calinescu publicizes these assasination attempts as best he can, nothing will deter Hitler from pursuing a path of aggression.
August 23, 1939: The Nazi-Soviet Non-Aggression Pact occurs on schedule. Nazi Germany agrees to a partition of Poland slightly more favorable to the Russians in exchange for having all of Romania except Bessarabia included in the German sphere of influence.
August 24, 1939: Poland and Romania begin mobilization to defend against what is obviously an imminent threat. Unfortunately, guarantees of Romanian assistance ensure that the Polish armies are deployed even farther west along the Polish Corridor when the war begins.
August 26, 1939: Encouraged by Hitler, Hungary begins mobilizing it troops and sending them towards the Romanian border.
August 30, 1939: The first Romanian units begin entering Poland.
September 1, 1939: The German invasion of Poland begins.
September 3, 1939: Romania declares war on Germany.
Differences from OTL:
Germany
Hitler is determined to defeat upstart Romania immediately after finishing off Poland. As a result, all of the Group reserves from Army Group North (1 panzer division, 3 infantry divisions) have been pulled to the front lines of Army Group South, and VII Corps (OTL reserve for Army Group South, 2 infantry divisions) will be right in the thick of things from the get go.
Poland
The Karpaty Army has been reinforced by the elite Romanian 2nd Mountain Brigade. The reserve Lublin Army has had the Romanian 2nd Infantry Division added. Prusy Army (the General Reserve) has been increased by the addition of the Romanian 14th Infantry Division, plus all of its units have been mobilized, as opposed to OTL where it was disorganized and never fully mobilized. In addition a "Lwow Army" consisting of the Romanian 6th and 16th Infantry Divisions as well as four cavalry brigades is in position at Lwow, in southeastern Poland.
Romania
In addition to the four infantry divisions, four cavalry brigades, and mountain brigade deployed in Poland, ten infantry divisions, five cavalry brigades, and an armored regiment have been stationed to defend against the impending Hungarian attack. Three infantry divisions and two cavalry brigades are stationed in Bessarabia and Bukovina to defend against any Soviet "stab", while four infantry divisions and two cavalry brigades are concentrated around Bucharest as a reserve group.
Hungary
With mobilization nearly complete, Hungary is poised to begin an offensive into Romania at the earliest favorable opportunity.
USSR
The USSR is preparing to assault Poland once a German victory is ensured, as in OTL. Stalin intends to wait until after Germany has done the hard work in subduing Romania before sweeping in and occupying Bessarabia.
*************************
So, any ideas on what happens now? I personally could see a very ill-timed offensive by the Poznan Army into Germany after a couple of days, since the progress of Army Group North will be slowed down by the increase of forces in Army Group South and an overall increase in Polish troops as they are already mobilized. The extra advantages Poland has due to being prepared earlier and aided by an ally may be nullified by a false sense of security, enacted upon by incompetent strategic decisions.
fenkmaster said:
I'm impressed to see a well researched TL centered on Romania.
If the bulk of the German forces are assigned to the Romanian front , I suppose the Romanian troops in Poland will be called back to defend the country. The German advance might be slower , because they would have to attack through the Apuseni mountains , rather than through a plain , as they did in Poland. When the Germans and Hungarians finish the occupation of Transilvania , they would have to get through the Carpathian mountains to reach the Ploiesti oil fields , Bucharest and the rest of the country.
Another interesting possibility would be a Bulgarian attack in the south. Romania had an alliance with Yugoslavia , Greece and Turkey aimed at Bulgaria. In 1940 , Turkey was willing to help us in case of a Bulgarian attack. I suppose that in 1939 , when Poland and France were not overrun by the German troops , more Balkan allies might have intervened against Bulgaria , thus widening the conflict.
The Poles ( maybe with some Romanian forces in Poland ) might try an attack in Eastern Slovakia or in Hungarian held Ruthenia to help the Romanians.
Britain and France would probably declare war on Germany. Since Germany would need more troops in Eastern Europe , the French might be more aggresive in their advance into the Saarland. Also , the British and French could send help to Romania through the Mediterranean and Black sea. If Bulgaria and Turkey ( and maybe Greece or Yugoslavia ) join the war , the Allies might try to help Turkey knock out Bulgaria and reach Southern Romania.
Even if the British and French don't send any help to the Poles and Romanians , the Germans will lose more troops ( in OTL they lost 25% of their tanks in Poland ) and more time. I think that in this case , an invasion of France might be delayed and will not be succesfull , since the Germans lose more troops and the Western Allies will have more tanks and planes ( they were outproducing the Germans ) and they will have more time to observe and adjust to the Blitzkrieg tactics.
Lokit said:
Well , if Romania resists a month or so , the autum rains and then the winter will make the conquest of Poland extremly hard , if not impossible , in 1939 and early 1940. In this time , the Poles can fully and properly mobilise , strenghten their defences and learn what blitzkrieg can do and how to counter it ( so , when the Germans attack them they won't be taken by surprise and surrounded ).
The Ploiesti oil fields , very important in OTL to the German war machine , would have been destroyed if the Germans had invaded Romania . So , in TTL , for several months the Germans would have to rely on Soviet oil.
Also , if the Germans are delayed , the British will arrive in Norway first , thus makeing a German invasion almost impossible to succed. The Swedish iron will be harder to get .
If the Germans attack Poland in the spring of 1940 , they will suffer significantly heavier losses than in OTL , and they will need several months to replenish their losses. In this time , the Allies and Soviets are getting stronger.
Also , I think that the invasion of France was succesful because the Germans were very lucky. They were supposed to attack where the Bulk of the Allied forces were , and the thrust through the Ardennes was succesful because the French reacted very slow.
Thande
Donor
Hmm, strikes me that the biggest divergence from OTL might not be the most obvious - Germany and the USSR are obviously going to conquer Poland and Romania eventually - but the fact that the sheer rapidity of blitzkrieg that shocked everyone in OTL will probably not be so dramatic here. And greater resistance of the kind Andrei described may get rid of the enduring image of the Polish cavalry charging the panzers...
O'course, this could also be counterproductive for the Allies, because then the speed of the Fall of France (if it still happens) will probably be underestimated, and so the BEF might be unable to escape...
O'course, this could also be counterproductive for the Allies, because then the speed of the Fall of France (if it still happens) will probably be underestimated, and so the BEF might be unable to escape...
Alcuin
Banned
Assuming France and Britain declared war on Germany at the same time as Rumania, might the fact that somebody else has put their own behind on the line to protect Poland, shame France into actually attacking Germany rather than working on the Maginot Line? How far would France actually get if they did this, while the bulk of the German army is in Poland? Saarland? The left bank of the Rhine? The Ruhrgebiet? How much would France and the BEF need to get before the Germans pulled back enough troops to weaken its attack on Poland and Romania?Thande said:
If that happened, would we see Poland and Romania making gains at the German expense? Would that be enough to persuade Hungary and the Soviet Union to back off?
Germany took significant losses in both armor and aircraft during the Polish campaign. By some accounts those losses had barely been replaced by April, 1940.
If Romania is able to support Poland, German losses will be higher. The attack on France will be delayed.
- Perhaps Belgium can be convinced to side with the Allies.
- Perhaps the Polish get to share anti-tank tactics with Britain and France.
- Perhaps a few companies of BEF are training or taking R & R in the Ardennes at the right (wrong) time.
The battle of France was a close thing. The Germans got lucky and the French were stupid and un-lucky. Things could have gone differently in OTL quite easily. Delays and additional losses in ’39 may mean defeat for the Germans in ’40 at worst and a longer campaign at best. Interestingly either might mean Hitler does not attack Russia and the Nazi’s might last longer … or their economy might collapse under the strain.
If Romania is able to support Poland, German losses will be higher. The attack on France will be delayed.
- Perhaps Belgium can be convinced to side with the Allies.
- Perhaps the Polish get to share anti-tank tactics with Britain and France.
- Perhaps a few companies of BEF are training or taking R & R in the Ardennes at the right (wrong) time.
The battle of France was a close thing. The Germans got lucky and the French were stupid and un-lucky. Things could have gone differently in OTL quite easily. Delays and additional losses in ’39 may mean defeat for the Germans in ’40 at worst and a longer campaign at best. Interestingly either might mean Hitler does not attack Russia and the Nazi’s might last longer … or their economy might collapse under the strain.
EmptyOne said:
Unlikely. The French got their chance in 1936 with the Rhineland and they blew it. The neutralist forces in Belgium (the King, the Catholics, most Flemings) are much too strong in 1939 to revert this.
Andrei said:
Unfourtunately, an attack against norway would ruin the british reputation in the world and Sweden will most likely approach germany for protection.
The problem for France is that they placed to many troops at the maginot line and this pod would not change that.
Am I the only one here who believe that the german conquest was the result of skill rather than luck? Yes they were lucky, but i believe that France wouls still fall albeit a bit slower if they lost their luck.
Well the Germans attacking through the Ardennes was a matter of luck. The downed pilot with the original plans and all. The original plan being a slugfest through Belgium, which the French would have been well equipped to fight.
Whether or not that the plans getting lost and the Ardennes plan being adopted is likely or not depends on how much you believe in butterflies. If so, the Germans win in France again, although it may certainly be a much harder fight because even operations past the Ardennes had a lot of luck going on - this could change. If not, the German may or may not win, but either way their Army is going to take some major damage. Notably the British can likely save their heavy equipment, and the French may be willing, and are probably in a position, to fight on from the colonies. Plus Barbarossa is not going to happen on schedule.
Oh, and the British certainly thought about invading Norway. If they did, I suspect Sweden would be stay a proper neutral, not a de facto German ally as in OTL, especially before August 1943.
Whether or not that the plans getting lost and the Ardennes plan being adopted is likely or not depends on how much you believe in butterflies. If so, the Germans win in France again, although it may certainly be a much harder fight because even operations past the Ardennes had a lot of luck going on - this could change. If not, the German may or may not win, but either way their Army is going to take some major damage. Notably the British can likely save their heavy equipment, and the French may be willing, and are probably in a position, to fight on from the colonies. Plus Barbarossa is not going to happen on schedule.
Oh, and the British certainly thought about invading Norway. If they did, I suspect Sweden would be stay a proper neutral, not a de facto German ally as in OTL, especially before August 1943.