Separate Prussia?

LordCalner · Mar 17, 2012

How do you people think Prussia would have evolved had it not united with the rest of Germany? relations, history, form of government?

Also the idea of a multiethnic Prussia is pretty interesting, I wonder how Prussia would have evolved if it had kept the borders it got during the third partition?

thoughts?

LSCatilina · Mar 17, 2012

Prussia is not rich or important enough to be independent, at least before the XIX as Lituania or Estonia. If it was not for Germany, then Prussia would have remained Polish, most likely.

I wouldn't be surprised if a multiethnic Prussia would have a germano-baltic nobility, as it existed in the neighbooring countries. Maybe it could have an incidence on pangermanism, claiming the territory.

DrakeRlugia · Mar 17, 2012

LSCatilina said:
Prussia is not rich or important enough to be independent, at least before the XIX as Lituania or Estonia. If it was not for Germany, then Prussia would have remained Polish, most likely.

I wouldn't be surprised if a multiethnic Prussia would have a germano-baltic nobility, as it existed in the neighbooring countries. Maybe it could have an incidence on pangermanism, claiming the territory.

He is talking about 19th century Prussia... how can you say it's not rich or important? Sure, the east was poor, the land was poor, and were so were the people and even the Junkers, but the Rhineland was rapidly industrializing.

Hell, before 19th century, Prussia was punching well beyond their weight as a were a middle class great power. While they were smaller, they possessed rich territories in the West, Cleves and the like. A power that managed to humble Austria twice does not strike me as a weak power. Sure it was in an alliance both times, but it thwarted Joseph II's times at taking over Bavaria through the Fürstenbund, a League of German Princes.

I mean, without a united Germany, Prussia is deifnitely weaker in the long wrong. But she's not doomed.

Delvestius · Mar 17, 2012

I could see an interesting situation arise if Austria focused less on their Slavic territories and more on asserting their dominance on the German states. If done early enough, we can have a Germany ruled from Vienna, with an independant Prussia, reluctant to join an Austrian state, yet not strong enough to expand their territory.

We'd probably need a pretty early POD though, perhaps one in which Austria and Britain stayed on the same side during the War of Austrian Succession.

jkarr · Mar 17, 2012

LSCatilina said:
If it was not for Germany, then Prussia would have remained Polish, most likely.y.

and yet, it was prussia that formed germany....kinda the "chicken or the egg" scenario there

Llamastrangler · Mar 18, 2012

It's a very attractive idea, although I'm not sure of the plausibility; a united Germany with Vienna as its capital, mainly Catholic, with a Hapsburg monarch (who may or may not eventually get overthrown in the general march of historical happenstance...), and an independent, multi-ethnic Prussia. A sort of mirror image of OTL's Germany unified by Prussia, excluding Austria.

Obviously you'd need to decouple Austria from much of its territory- certainly Hungary, perhaps Bohemia- but how to do so plausibly while still leaving a power which is able to unite Germany?

SavoyTruffle · Mar 18, 2012

Llamastrangler said:
It's a very attractive idea, although I'm not sure of the plausibility; a united Germany with Vienna as its capital, mainly Catholic, with a Hapsburg monarch (who may or may not eventually get overthrown in the general march of historical happenstance...), and an independent, multi-ethnic Prussia. A sort of mirror image of OTL's Germany unified by Prussia, excluding Austria.

Obviously you'd need to decouple Austria from much of its territory- certainly Hungary, perhaps Bohemia- but how to do so plausibly while still leaving a power which is able to unite Germany?

Austria doesn't reconquer most of Hungary from the Ottomans? In OTL even with a rump Hungary Austria was a pretty strong power, and it helped that it held the Imperial title.

carlton_bach · Mar 18, 2012

The problem with 19th-century Prussia is that it owns a large chunk of the Rhineland. You can't just leave that ourt of Germ,any. Of course it would be thinkable for Prussia to lose a war against Austria badly, and for Austria to try its own kleindeutsche Lösung, stripping Prussia of the Rheinprovinz. But that would be too late for Prussia to be meaningfully not-German in anything other than passports.

The other problem is that before 1806, Prussia cannot exit the HRE because it's not in it. Only some of its territories are, and you can't selectively expel them. I think your only time window for a meaningful non-German Prussia is the Napoleonic era. Strip it of much of its Western holding (Jülich-Kleve-Berg must go), add plenty of formerly Polish or Russian territory, and declare it a country east of Germany with a German-speaking minority. I just can't quite see who would do such a thing. Certainly neither Napoleon nor Alexander.

LordCalner · Mar 18, 2012

What about getting its third partiton borders back, in exchange for no Rhineland and the loss of Julich, Kleve and Berg at the conference of Vienna? wouldnt that mean that there would be about as many Poles as Germans within Prussia?

American Empire · Mar 18, 2012

I think he means a German speaking Prussia without becoming apart of Germany. It would be the Austria of this ATL.

carlton_bach · Mar 18, 2012

LordCalner said:
What about getting its third partiton borders back, in exchange for no Rhineland and the loss of Julich, Kleve and Berg at the conference of Vienna? wouldnt that mean that there would be about as many Poles as Germans within Prussia?

I think pretty much. There is no guarantee that it would make it a multiethnic state by its own lights, though. Germanness had already been drummed into too many heads during the Napoleonic Wars. In the long run, that Prussia would be more easily pushed out of an Austrian-dominated Germany. "Prussia as Austria" describes that well.

The bigger question is, though, how do they get it? Russia is not likely to just let go of its Polish gains, and I don't think anyone wanted to restore pre-revolution Rhineland government chaos.

LordCalner · Mar 18, 2012

That is the question, perhaps Russia does worse yet napoleon is still defeated? Prussia "liberating" most of the duchy of Warsaw while Austria frees Germany? or an outright prussian victory at Jena-Auerstadt?

SavoyTruffle · Mar 18, 2012

carlton_bach said:
I think pretty much. There is no guarantee that it would make it a multiethnic state by its own lights, though. Germanness had already been drummed into too many heads during the Napoleonic Wars. In the long run, that Prussia would be more easily pushed out of an Austrian-dominated Germany. "Prussia as Austria" describes that well.

The bigger question is, though, how do they get it? Russia is not likely to just let go of its Polish gains, and I don't think anyone wanted to restore pre-revolution Rhineland government chaos.

LordCalner said:
That is the question, perhaps Russia does worse yet napoleon is still defeated? Prussia "liberating" most of the duchy of Warsaw while Austria frees Germany? or an outright prussian victory at Jena-Auerstadt?

I can see Napoleon focusing on the Peninsular War preventing Russia from being the dominant member of the anti-Napoleon Alliance.

MSZ · Mar 18, 2012

Prussia seperate from Brandenburg? It would most likely evolve as a seperate fourth Baltic state, although a germanophonic one. Assuming it does not go independent after 1657 it remians a Polish feif, germanizes its inhabitants and remains a dual-phonic germna-polish area seperate from both Poland and Germany. At some point (at latest, when nationalism kicks in) it has its own identity problems, wheteher it is a germanphone area soutside Germany like Switzerland, or a seperate Prussian state with a seperate identity. How it will evolve depends deeply on the polish partitions, whether they occur and where Prussia ends up with.

A seperate Prussian state outside Germany is not really ASB, though it never wouldbecome a Great Power like the Kingdom of Prussia OTL.

LordCalner · Mar 18, 2012

No, not Prussia separate from Brandenburg, basicly the kingdom of Prussia separate from Germany whenever it forms, preferably with its third partiton borders

MSZ · Mar 18, 2012

LordCalner said:
No, not Prussia separate from Brandenburg, basicly the kingdom of Prussia separate from Germany whenever it forms, preferably with its third partiton borders

With third partition borders is probably the worst time for a Kingdom of Prussia to form, as it would make the state highly unstable with about 50:50 Polish-German population ratio. Not so good, aspecially if Austri keeps the third partition Galicia as well, it makes it an easy target for a russo-austrisn-polish alliance. With the rest Germany falling to Austria it will make Prussiaeven more vulnerable.

LordCalner · Mar 18, 2012

No you seem to have misuderstood me again

the history of Prussia keeps going on as in OTL untill the late 1700s or early 1800s then it begins to diverge with the result being a Prussia with its 3rd partition borders remaining separate from germany whenever it forms!

im sorry if im unclear here, english is not my main language and i have some trouble expressing myself in written form:/

eliphas8 · Mar 18, 2012

LordCalner said:
No you seem to have misuderstood me again the history of Prussia keeps going on as in OTL untill the late 1700s or early 1800s then it begins to diverge with the result being a Prussia with its 3rd partition borders remaining separate from germany whenever it forms! im sorry if im unclear here, english is not my main language and i have some trouble expressing myself in written form:/

Its just hard to come up with a scenario where that happens though, Prussia was a very heavily German state and in any scenario where Germany is unified will have Prussia involved or as the founder. If Prussia isnt the unifier its likely because they remained a secondary power and would be likely to play a similar role to Bavaria where they join up with much more autonomy than the other states. If they are still a great power though there is no one in the position to create Germany then, Austria had no interest in doing that and only remained independent because none of the great powers could possibly allow their annexation.

LordCalner · Mar 19, 2012

I see that i set up a pretty difficult senario for my TL:/ oh well just borrowed Iron Kingdom from the local library, we will see if i can find anything that i could use otherwise i will have to do some re-thinking.

Barbarossa Rotbart · Mar 20, 2012

It seems that you forget that Prussia was orginally a duchy that was part of the Kingdom of Poland. After the death of the last Duke of Prussia in1618 the Elector of Brandenburg inherited the duchy. Thus Brandeburg-Prussia came into existence, but these were still two seperate states: the Electorate of Brandenburg and the Duchy of Prussia.
But in the late 17th/ eraly 18th century most of the secular electors were kings: the King of Bohemia, the King of England (the Elector of Hannover), the King of Poland (the Elector of Saxony). So Elector Frederick III of Brandenburg saw himself in a disadvantage and he managed to convince the Emperor that he should also be a king. Thus he became king in Prussia and united Brandenburg and Prussia into one state. Frederick II was the first who called himself King of Prussia after the annexiation of Royal Prussia.
So for an independent Prussia at least one of the sons of Duke Albert Frederick of Prussia has to survive into adulthood and has to have sons. Or neither the Elector of Saxony nor the Elector of Hannover become Kings.