Secular Iranian Revolution: Khomeini is butterflied away, effect on 1980 US Elections?

[Nightingale]

The secular opposition was actually in control of Iran's revolution before Khomeini stepped in. Butterflies resulting would be no Iranian Hostage Crisis, obviously, as the Iranians wouldn't be so fanatical.

However, I saw that the oil crisis was caused by the protests that started even before Khomeini returned.

What do you think would be the effects on the US Elections? Who would win? The incumbent or the challenger?

I will not put the specific person in power at the time. It depends on who's the winner in 1976, which was a bit close, so it's uncertain whether a Republican or a Democrat would be in the White House for the rest of the 1980s.

 

[GSpectre]

Given any Iranian revolution would be hostile to the united states... probably it would help the challenger. Especially if the economy and foreign policy issues were the same. 76 was a poisoned chalice, and even without the hostage crisis an Iranian revolution would still make the US look ineffectual.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Depends on how hostile it is. Avert the hostage crisis and disavow ANY link to Communism and it may change the outcome. Of course, you still have IOTL a Democrat who was outmatched by a charismatic Republican with new economic ideas and a penchant for stealing his debate notes, so Iran may not be a huge issue and may not start a war with Iraq, but it will take more than secularism in Iran to keep Reagan from the White House.

 

[James Ricker]

You'd probably get Anderson as the Republican nominee and future President. No Reagan means no legitimizing of the radical factions of the Republican party.

 

[Dave Howery]

Carter is still going to get hammered with a dismal economy that he hasn't fixed and the Russian invasion of Afghanistan... and even if there is no hostage crisis, Carter is still going to be the President that 'lost Iran'... the odds are still with whoever the GOP challenger is...

 

[Electric Monk]

The situation in Iran was incredibly fluid. Multiple plausible outcomes with even minor butterflies.

You want an Iranian secular government that doesn't hate the West? Doable, but find someone besides Carter as the winner in 1976 (he bungled Iran badly, and his ME peace work didn't help).

There's a paucity of universes starting from OTL 1976 that don't result in Reagan being the 1980 Republican nominee so if a Dem wins in 1976 he better be a funny jock or get real lucky.