Salerno - revisited

[ivanotter]

All, we have probably also been here, but ....

The landing at Salerno could easily have ended up with US/UK forces been thrown off the continent. Only Rommel's advise that nothing South of Rome was important 'saved' the landings.

What if:

Salerno a total disaster.

Will it impact on Anzio? the entire Italian campaign? Overlord?

My thoughts are:
- Anzio will not be attempted
- US gets its way and the Italian campaign gets cancelled in total.
- All forces allocated to Overlord.

That will mean that Brooke's 'strategic trap' - Italy - will not work. German forces can be used in Normandy

There will be plenty of 'butterflies' in this.

 

[Belisarius II]

Respectfully the chances of the landings being thrown into the sea was near nil. Any German units in range of the fleet will be blasted to pieces. Once in the beach head Allied air power, along with artillery, from both the army, and navy would breakup any major offensive. What was really in doubt was how large the beach head would be, and if the 5th Army could breakout, or be confined in the beach head, like at Anzio. Once 8th Army started to approach Salerno the Germans had to pull back to their defensive mountain line.

 

[Gannt the chartist]

Respectfully the chances of the landings being thrown into the sea was near nil. Any German units in range of the fleet will be blasted to pieces. Once in the beach head Allied air power, along with artillery, from both the army, and navy would breakup any major offensive. What was really in doubt was how large the beach head would be, and if the 5th Army could breakout, or be confined in the beach head, like at Anzio. Once 8th Army started to approach Salerno the Germans had to pull back to their defensive mountain line.

Quite, this is the just about the best possible anti invasion scenario for the Germans. And it all goes swimmingly until they are seen at which point in the words of one observer 'whole grid squares started to disappear'

The Allied problems apart from the ones dealt with by Naval Artillery are mainly in the mind of Clark, who in fairness is steadied by Alexander with one sentence.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

All, we have probably also been here, but ....

The landing at Salerno could easily have ended up with US/UK forces been thrown off the continent. Only Rommel's advise that nothing South of Rome was important 'saved' the landings.

What if:

Salerno a total disaster.

Will it impact on Anzio? the entire Italian campaign? Overlord?

My thoughts are:
- Anzio will not be attempted
- US gets its way and the Italian campaign gets cancelled in total.
- All forces allocated to Overlord.

That will mean that Brooke's 'strategic trap' - Italy - will not work. German forces can be used in Normandy

There will be plenty of 'butterflies' in this.

There was 3 landings

Salerno, Taronto and Calabria

In the unlikely event that the Salerno invasion fails then there are still the other 2 bridgeheads, the Armistice has been signed taking Italy out of the Axis and Germany will still have to scramble to mobilise its reserves (OTL 40 divisions or 1/5 of its fighting strength) to cover the areas now no longer covered by the Italians and to disarm Italian units in said areas.

So I do not think that much will change in the strategic sense and unlikely that the Allies would be kicked out of Italy

And the Germans would have to watch for subsequent landing attempts so could not really thin out troops from Italy no more than they could from Norway and Greece at the time.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Respectfully the chances of the landings being thrown into the sea was near nil. Any German units in range of the fleet will be blasted to pieces. Once in the beach head Allied air power, along with artillery, from both the army, and navy would breakup any major offensive. What was really in doubt was how large the beach head would be, and if the 5th Army could breakout, or be confined in the beach head, like at Anzio. Once 8th Army started to approach Salerno the Germans had to pull back to their defensive mountain line.

Of course on the game board it can happen. A series of bad dice rolls, a misplaced piece, a miscalculation. What happens after that is Kesselring confronts the 8th Army much further south. Even if its only a delaying action the autumn battles happen south of Naples rather than north of it. Worst case is Hitler doubles down on Kesselrings 'southern defense' & releases much more of the forces in Northern Italy for the 10th Armys battle. Left with a winter in a dreary far south enclave the Allies rethink their Mediterranean strategy & the implications for invasion and campaigning in NW Europe next year.

 

[ivanotter]

Thanks Carl,

Taranto and Calabria were even further south.

If Italian campaign had to be reviewed, I could imagine that US will cancell the lot and focus on Overlord.

Brooke always wanted to use Italy as a strategic trap. How would hee feel about this? and what would be said at the next top conference?

 

[RedSword12]

Respectfully the chances of the landings being thrown into the sea was near nil. Any German units in range of the fleet will be blasted to pieces. Once in the beach head Allied air power, along with artillery, from both the army, and navy would breakup any major offensive. What was really in doubt was how large the beach head would be, and if the 5th Army could breakout, or be confined in the beach head, like at Anzio. Once 8th Army started to approach Salerno the Germans had to pull back to their defensive mountain line.

I disagree. When the German assault was repelled, the Germans were only a few hundred meters away from Clark's command post, which was thinly defended by some artillery, a handful of tank destroyers, and a last-ditch line of noncombat personnel. They were stopped IOTL after they halted briefly to figure out a way over the Calore River upon encountering a destroyed bridge, after which the American artillerymen were able to put up enough fire to put an end to their advance. With a bit of luck, say, that bridge not being destroyed or something, the Americans could well have been forced to evacuate.

 

[dmg86]

Yeah. It was closer then a lot of people realized.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

I disagree that it really was that close. I can't think of a single instance of an amphibious attack being thrown out into the sea outright, instead of getting a beach-head, not being able to advance far inland, being stalemated, and eventually being evacuated. And the British had successfully landed further south and were moving to move north.

You have to put a complete idiot in Alexander's job, which has other butterflies, or really screw Allied amphibious doctrine at the time. If its the latter, the Allies get to work on fixing their amphibious doctrine before Overlord. And because the 8th Army still gets on the mainland, I'm not even sure the Italian campaign gets affected. At the most, the Americans pull out, with Italy being a purely British/ minor ally show, and northwest Europe being more of an American one.

 

[Belisarius II]

I disagree. When the German assault was repelled, the Germans were only a few hundred meters away from Clark's command post, which was thinly defended by some artillery, a handful of tank destroyers, and a last-ditch line of noncombat personnel. They were stopped IOTL after they halted briefly to figure out a way over the Calore River upon encountering a destroyed bridge, after which the American artillerymen were able to put up enough fire to put an end to their advance. With a bit of luck, say, that bridge not being destroyed or something, the Americans could well have been forced to evacuate.

Yes, but that's just the point. Trying to make a river crossing, in the face of a blown bridge, and direct, point blank artillery fire is no easy feat. The gunner's probable set their fuses at zero. It might seem the danger was great, because the Germans got so close to a GHQ, but that's on a map; on the ground the odds were against them. A GHQ can call in more fire from Corps, and Army assets then the Germans could standup to. Even if Clark had to pull back his HQ that's a long way from having to evacuate VI Corps.

 

[RedSword12]

Yes, but that's just the point. Trying to make a river crossing, in the face of a blown bridge, and direct, point blank artillery fire is no easy feat. The gunner's probable set their fuses at zero. It might seem the danger was great, because the Germans got so close to a GHQ, but that's on a map; on the ground the odds were against them. A GHQ can call in more fire from Corps, and Army assets then the Germans could standup to. Even if Clark had to pull back his HQ that's a long way from having to evacuate VI Corps.

Well, again, my point is that better luck could have led to a German victory at Salerno. I'm not trying to pinpoint a specific little change that could have swayed the scales (considering that every little change leads to cascading changes and POD's down the line, it's hard to project the results of any lone POD in particular), although more German preparations prior to the landing (Hitler predicted the landing area weeks in advance) would certainly have helped. The Allied success at Salerno wasn't inevitable.

 

[Belisarius II]

Well, again, my point is that better luck could have led to a German victory at Salerno. I'm not trying to pinpoint a specific little change that could have swayed the scales (considering that every little change leads to cascading changes and POD's down the line, it's hard to project the results of any lone POD in particular), although more German preparations prior to the landing (Hitler predicted the landing area weeks in advance) would certainly have helped. The Allied success at Salerno wasn't inevitable.

Yes, with better preparation, more Allied mistakes, and better luck the Germans could win. It's not in the realm of absurdity, but it's still highly unlikely. Once the landing established itself it would be almost impossible to dislodge it. VI Corps had most of the advantages. It was on the defensive; it outnumbered the Germans attacking it, they had powerful artillery, and naval gunfire support, and air superiority. Finally, 8th Army was quickly approaching from the south, so time was on the Allies side. The German advantage stemmed from VI Corps holding an extended line, making it possible for them to concentrate their attacks, gaining local superiority where they chose.

For the Germans to have a realistic chance of defeating 5th Army they'd need to commit more divisions from Northern Italy to the battle. That would mean running bigger risks. Staking it all on a decisive battle south of Naples, near the Allied Beach Head, would be playing into the enemy's strength, and their own weakness. Near the Beach Head Allied air, and naval power could be used to maximum effect, while the Germans would have to concentrate their forces, exposing them to allied fire power. A defeat could cost them Rome, and Central Italy, while even a victory would gain them little, because the British would still occupy Southern Italy, with its important airfields.

It's not surprising that Rommel advised against a major offensive. A battle of attrition in the mountains made more sense. It let them hold on to Rome, for an extended period of time, while employing an economy of force. It saved German strength for later more decisive battles.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Thanks Carl,

Taranto and Calabria were even further south.

If Italian campaign had to be reviewed, I could imagine that US will cancell the lot and focus on Overlord.

Brooke always wanted to use Italy as a strategic trap. How would hee feel about this? and what would be said at the next top conference?

'We need to learn from out mistakes there'. Other arguments would be:

'This shows OVERLORD is premature. We need to execute more peripheral operations in safer places until the Germans weaken further."

This shows we need more of ____, and more of_____, and more of this other_____, to make the next invasion work.

The arguments will go back and forth.

On the German side this validates their doctrine of defeating landings on the coast by vigorous counter attack by mobile reserves. Rommels ideas about defeating invasions on the beach may not be accepted by Hitler & the mass of beach defenses built on the Normandy, Calais, Flanders, and Dutch coasts OTL not put in. The beaches in Normandy could remain as in 1943, bare with some platoon and company outposts, a few strands of barbed wire, and a handful of mines.

 

[Look More Closely Later]

Thanks Carl,

Taranto and Calabria were even further south.

If Italian campaign had to be reviewed, I could imagine that US will cancell the lot and focus on Overlord.

Brooke always wanted to use Italy as a strategic trap. How would hee feel about this? and what would be said at the next top conference?

If a failed landing at Salerno 'proves' that amphibious landings against German opposition to try and gain a beach-head (as opposed to being used as hooks to turn a flank as I think Patton is supposed to have done in Sicily) are a bad idea, that does not seem to me to make Overlord more desirable an operation, least of all to the British Prime Minister, who was involved with the Gallipoli disaster a generation earlier.
I think he might push for 'all in' Italy (where they are at least ashore now) whilst pretending that an invasion across the Channel might come at any moment, so that as many German troops are concentrated there in France as possible whilst Italy crumbles...
The United Nations would need to go much faster up the Italian peninsula than in the original timeline, mind you, to keep Stalin happy, and probably have some sort of plan to get into the south of France.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

and probably have some sort of plan to get into the south of France.

COSSAC was writing up the first draft of the ANVIL plan. I've often considered it a better move than the SHINGLE concept for early 1944.

 

[stodge]

Taking the other side, what would have been the impact of a successful Salerno?

The Germans are drawn south to engage the Eighth Army in Calabria and the Salerno landings go in against weak opposition - this allows the Fifth Army to seize Naples in a coup de main and to sweep across country trapping the German forces in the south.

Rommel escapes but is disgraced and nearly 30,000 German troops and their equipment are lost by the middle of September.

The allies are therefore able to move further north more quickly than in OTL turning the Volturno Line and sweeping toward the Winter Line by mid October.

Can the allies break through the Winter Line before December and advance toward Rome, capturing it six months earlier than in OTL?

That seems a step too far but with an earlier Anzio, who knows?

 

[Belisarius II]

Taking the other side, what would have been the impact of a successful Salerno?

The Germans are drawn south to engage the Eighth Army in Calabria and the Salerno landings go in against weak opposition - this allows the Fifth Army to seize Naples in a coup de main and to sweep across country trapping the German forces in the south.

Rommel escapes but is disgraced and nearly 30,000 German troops and their equipment are lost by the middle of September.

The allies are therefore able to move further north more quickly than in OTL turning the Volturno Line and sweeping toward the Winter Line by mid October.

Can the allies break through the Winter Line before December and advance toward Rome, capturing it six months earlier than in OTL?

That seems a step too far but with an earlier Anzio, who knows?

The Germans had no intention of fighting for Southern Italy, for precisely the reason you just laid out. They would be too vulnerable to just the naval flanking move you suggest.

 

[ivanotter]

Well, that is sort of what Brooke wanted to: threaten a seaborne invasion everywhere (also Adriatic). It would German forces in Italy and not going for France.

That could only work up to the point of actual invasion. Salerno might have been too far south in any event.

The thing is: if Salerno does not succeed, then what will US/UK do? they need to do something to show Stalin that they are somewhat active. Anzio was there as a part of the greater Cassino front.

But if Salerno is not a success then how to get all the way to Cassino?

So it would be a mixed bag:

Dieppe: not so great
Sicily: success
Salerno: not

Impact on Overlord planning?

 

[stodge]

The Germans had no intention of fighting for Southern Italy, for precisely the reason you just laid out. They would be too vulnerable to just the naval flanking move you suggest.

The question then becomes (and I'm sure you're right by the way) whether the allies were too timid in going for a Salerno landing?

Salerno to Anzio is 260 km or 155 miles - was there ever an option to land at Anzio in September or October to attempt to seize Rome and try a more ambitious flanking attack or would it have been the Italian equivalent of Market Garden and come up short?

I'm not well up on German naval and army dispositions in Italy at that time.

 

[spkaca]

The question then becomes (and I'm sure you're right by the way) whether the allies were too timid in going for a Salerno landing?

Salerno to Anzio is 260 km or 155 miles - was there ever an option to land at Anzio in September or October to attempt to seize Rome and try a more ambitious flanking attack or would it have been the Italian equivalent of Market Garden and come up short?

I'm not well up on German naval and army dispositions in Italy at that time.

As I understand it the Allies chose Salerno because it was as far north as fighter cover from Sicily would allow. IOW the range of a Spitfire dictated how far north the Allies could try. So Anzio was out of reach. This is much the same logic that restricted OVERLORD to either Normandy or Pas-de-Calais.
In my (sigged) current TL, the Allies land at Anzio as well, because they already hold Sardinia & Corsica before landing in mainland Italy, so air cover is more doable.