Salazar

[SteveW]

In the summer of 1968, the Portuguese dictator Salazar fell from his chair at his summer house and suffered a stroke. Replaced, he died in 1970.

What would happen if he hadn't fallen over and avoided the stroke? Let's say he survives until 1972 or later-does htis change decolonialisation in Africa?

 

[Jape]

Doubtful by any major length of time, after all, come the 1970's colonialism isn't exactly in vogue and thats exactly the key point internationally for Portugal. With Salazar remaining in power the Estado Novo will probably survive a few years more but once Franco's regime is dead, no chance. Salazar was swimming against the tide, evnetually even his economic success was going to lose its charm.

I suppose its like beartrap. The further you pull, the harder the snap-back, eventually the outside world, economic failure or Salazar's 'natural' death was going to see the end of it all. Maybe even a more militant Leftist revolution, blood and militarist-socialist dictatorship?

All in all Portugal was pretty lucky by Latin Revolution standards, a lengthened Salazar-esque could have been quite messy at the most and not very different at the least.

 

[Archangel]

In the summer of 1968, the Portuguese dictator Salazar fell from his chair at his summer house and suffered a stroke. Replaced, he died in 1970.

What would happen if he hadn't fallen over and avoided the stroke? Let's say he survives until 1972 or later-does htis change decolonialisation in Africa?

It may delay it a few years at the best, and may lead to a different decolonization in Angola and perhaps Mozambique, in the sense that the guerrillas would be weaker, but there would still be decolonization all over the Portuguese Empire. The political colour on those countries would be less monolithic. Depending on the speed of the normalization and the speed of decolonization, other former Portuguese colonies could also be turned into a diferent ideological orientation.

Doubtful by any major length of time, after all, come the 1970's colonialism isn't exactly in vogue and thats exactly the key point internationally for Portugal. With Salazar remaining in power the Estado Novo will probably survive a few years more but once Franco's regime is dead, no chance. Salazar was swimming against the tide, evnetually even his economic success was going to lose its charm.

I suppose its like beartrap. The further you pull, the harder the snap-back, eventually the outside world, economic failure or Salazar's 'natural' death was going to see the end of it all. Maybe even a more militant Leftist revolution, blood and militarist-socialist dictatorship?

A militarist-communist dictatorship would be extremely unlikely. Salazar’s popular support was long gone. The Carnation revolution was the result of people being tired of the colonial war, along with disappointment over the lack of reformism of his successor (who was in a certain way a victim of the system’s unwillingness to reform). It got to a point where the regime was being kept by fear and inertia, rather than actual military strength. Nobody but the far-right supported it. Even the liberal and conservative sectors in society had lost all hope in a peaceful liberalization of the regime (some had already lost it in the 50's).

All in all Portugal was pretty lucky by Latin Revolution standards, a lengthened Salazar-esque could have been quite messy at the most and not very different at the least.

In the worst possible scenario, there could be a short civil war when the revolution has to decide its course. Such event would be between the far left and the remaining 75-80% of the population (Socialists, Liberal, Conservatives, Centrists, Christian-Democrats, ultra-conservatives, etc).
The far-left appeal was always limited.
The communist support was mostly from people from Alentejo (specifically the parts with large properties and landless rural workers), living there or emigrated in Lisbon, along with some intellectuals and industrial workers in the cities.
Other far-left groups were essentially urban based small parties.