Suppose Saddam Hussein invades Saudi Arabia around September 1, 1990. What would be the result? How far could he get into Arabia? Would the Coalition be able to stop him at all?
Saddam invades during Desert Shield
- Thread starter AmericanCataphract
- Start date
In short, he would have been curbstomped. This is what he would have had to contend with:
Consider Operation Instant Thunder, the air campaign for the Gulf War. This campaign lasted less than 24 hours and completely decimated Iraq's air arm and nearly all of his infrastructure.
- 959,600 combat troops
- 1,820 fighter aircraft and attack aircraft (1,376 American, 175 Saudi, 69 British, 42 French, 24 Canadian, 8 Italian)
- 3,318 tanks (mainly M1 Abrams(U.S.), Challenger 1(UK), M60 Pattons (U.S.)
- 8 aircraft carriers
- 2 battleships
- 20 cruisers
- 20 destroyers
- 5 submarines
Consider Operation Instant Thunder, the air campaign for the Gulf War. This campaign lasted less than 24 hours and completely decimated Iraq's air arm and nearly all of his infrastructure.
Ah Saddam we were such good friends back then, where did it all go wrong
I think the relationship went sour the moment the United States just wasn't down for helping Iraq bully the middle east.
His army was not able to stop the coalition on the defensive (which gives at least a 2 or 3 times improvement in combat power). What makes you think they could make any progress in attacking when the coalition has that defensive advantage. He would not have been able to get tactical surprise - there were too many satellites and recon planes watching (they might have gotten strategic surprise just because it is so darn stupid to come out of their holes where it is easier to kill them ).
As for the results, well I strongly suspect that it means that Bush 1 actually takes Baghdad which gives us the Iraqi conflict we had in the '00's in the '90's. Big butterflys probably sweep away 9-11.
). As for the results, well I strongly suspect that it means that Bush 1 actually takes Baghdad which gives us the Iraqi conflict we had in the '00's in the '90's.
Big butterflys probably sweep away 9-11.Anaxagoras
Banned
Well, wait a minute. What Coalition forces were on the ground in Saudi Arabia on September 1? The 82nd and the 101st, and some British troops. Had the 24th Mech arrived yet? And the air assets that early on were nothing compared to what they were when Desert Storm began in January- they would still have defeated the Iraqi Air Force, I imagine, but it would have been a more even fight and the Iraqi Army could have captured the air bases on the ground.
Well the 82nd and 101 would normally be cushed in a stand up fight with armor but this is the Saudi desert, if there is anywhere to trade space for time this is it. Deploy some AT units, fire kill a few tanks, and then fall back. Plus the Iraqi Army would be hit by the full power of Allied air forces. Plus there is the Saudi National Guard armed with at the time AMX-30s which I think are a match for a T-72, but if not still more powerful than anyting else in the Iraqi AFV inteventory.
I would really throw a wrench in Allied plans but there is nothing the Iraqis can do to stop reinforcement. All the RDF forces need to do is hold out long enough for the first heavy forces (24th Mech someone mentioned?) to get there.
Interesting question, I looked and can't find an order of battle for that first month or so. I do remember that there were 2 carrier battle groups, a MEU and 4-5 squadrons of Air Force fighters and ground attack planes there within a week or so of the original invasion.
as you said there were light troops there early, I suspect with air support, a MEU and 2+ divisions of airborne would have trashed the Iraqi army. Don't forget that the heavy bombers were available from the beginning, plus A-10's. I think it would have still been a curbstomp.
as you said there were light troops there early, I suspect with air support, a MEU and 2+ divisions of airborne would have trashed the Iraqi army. Don't forget that the heavy bombers were available from the beginning, plus A-10's. I think it would have still been a curbstomp.
Anaxagoras
Banned
Perhaps. But I also think we are instinctively judging the performance of the 1990/91 Iraqi military based on how it performed in Desert Storm. In this scenario, it would not have suffered under more than a month of intensive aerial bombardment, with its command and control systems already destroyed.
I still think the Coalition would have prevailed, but it would not have been nearly as easy as Desert Storm and allied losses would have been much higher.
So basically, we're looking at Coalition casualty figures of around 1500 KIAs if the Iraqis were to attack before any heavy Coalition units arrive? But all in all, the units on the ground should be able to hold out long enough for the reinforcements to arrive, and once they do the games up for Sadaam.
I agree. B52s would be great for carpet bombing Iraqi units in the empty desert as well as leveling presidential palaces.
It would depend what exactly he does.
I think if he somehow managed to take Mecca and maybe Medina (maybe using an amphibious D-day esque assult from the west, though I doubt he could pull that off), I think the Saudis would be more than willing to sacrifice Kuwait and to get the rest of the Arab League to agree to it if it meant getting their hands back on the hajj business. Whether or not the US will agree to this is a horse of a different color.
I think if he somehow managed to take Mecca and maybe Medina (maybe using an amphibious D-day esque assult from the west, though I doubt he could pull that off), I think the Saudis would be more than willing to sacrifice Kuwait and to get the rest of the Arab League to agree to it if it meant getting their hands back on the hajj business. Whether or not the US will agree to this is a horse of a different color.
Ah Saddam we were such good friends back then, where did it all go wrong
Ah... the good ol' days...
With what navy?
It would be much easier to drive all the way across the desert overland.
The Iraqi army was enormous would outnumber the defenders greatly, while an intact ground-control system means the Iraqi Air Force would perform more effectively. Furthermore, two CBGs' air defense envelope would not be as powerful as eight CBGs' air defense envelope, so they might be more vulnerable to Exocets and other antiship missiles.
I'm thinking something resembling an armored version of "Zulu Dawn" or the Allies trading space or time all the way to Yemen.
(At least on land. I think the US would win the air/sea war, until the Iraqis start taking on-land airfields.)