Russian victory at Tannenberg/Masurian Lakes

[Don Quijote]

Given their superiority in numbers, could the Russian 1st and 2nd Armies have surrounded the Germans in East Prussia, rather than the other around? Once this has happened, a Russian advance towards Berlin is possible. In OTL after victory at Tannenberg over Samsonov's 2nd Army, the Germans also mauled Rennenkampf's 1st Army at the Masurian Lakes. Could we see a reverse of this further west, with a pursuing Russian force destroying the German rearguard as it retreated?

 

[Simon]

It would require a number of changes since IIRC both Russian armies were seriously under-equipped and their communications security was atrocious using cyphers in their wireless messages that the Germans were easily able to break and therefore know what they were planning. The Russians could also have done worse than the Governor-General of Warsaw and Commander-in-Chief of the Warsaw Military Georgi Skalon slipping in the bath and killing himself a couple years before the war started since he was apparently both fairly inept and something of a shit purposely creating a poisonous atmosphere.

One very interesting knock-on effect of the Russians winning is that the German Eighth Army likely has to follow the original plan of falling back behind the Vistula surrendering East Prussia and seeing Konigsberg come under siege, all of which means that Paul von Hindenburg doesn't become the national hero that he did in our timeline. Probably dents his chances of replacing Erich von Falkenhayn as Chief of the German General Staff and his later post-war activities.

 

[Kalan]

The main problem of the Russian was that the generals leading the two armies - Rennenkampf and Samsonov - were bitter enemies. Their feud dated back to the Russo-japanese war, when both served as commanders of division on adjoining parts of the front. After a lost battle they accused each other of failing to provide support, the dispute escalated into a brawl and a duel was only averted by a direct order of the Tsar.

Unsurprisingly this enmity made it unlikely that Rennenkampf would work together with Samsonov. In fact the Germans were aware of this incident and speculated that Rennekampf would abandon Samsonov; which is exactly what happened.

Additionally the high command lead by general Schilinski constantly interfered with the decisions made by Samsonov (e.g. trying to dictate how close the different platoons had to be).

So in order to get the two armies to work together the Russians have first and foremost to not assign to feuding commanders.
Having a competent high command (for instance Bursilov) would also help.

As for the consequences: With the loss of the eastern armies the Russians could easily conquer East Prussia including Königsber. Then much depends on the reaction of the German leadership. If they panic and recall troops from the west it is possible that the western front collapses after the battle of the Marne allowing France to regain significant ground. This in turn might lead to an early end of the war as the Germans realise they cannot win - for extra irony have them sue for peace before Christmas.

 

[Don Quijote]

Austria-Hungary's reaction would be interesting. In OTL they messed up the Galician campaign pretty badly, and if the Russians in TTL are on the attack with high morale Austria-Hungary could be in for a bit of a disaster.

 

[Simon]

The main problem of the Russian was that the generals leading the two armies - Rennenkampf and Samsonov - were bitter enemies. Their feud dated back to the Russo-japanese war, when both served as commanders of division on adjoining parts of the front. After a lost battle they accused each other of failing to provide support, the dispute escalated into a brawl and a duel was only averted by a direct order of the Tsar.

IIRC the whole brawl thing is an urban myth. They might not have liked each other, possibly exacerbated by Skalon and his habit of playing politics and setting his subordinates off against each other, and not co-operated but as far as I'm aware there was no physical altercation during or after the Russo-Japanese War.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

You'd have to not fight those battles at all. Really the Russians would have to wait until they finished mobilizing and stay in contact with one another. They rushed into East Prussia before they were fully mobilized to try and take the pressure off of the French and got themselves in trouble. So really they need to abandon all treaty obligations and wait for their forces to get ready. So that would be pretty much politically impossible.

IIRC the whole brawl thing is an urban myth. They might not have liked each other, possibly exacerbated by Skalon and his habit of playing politics and setting his subordinates off against each other, and not co-operated but as far as I'm aware there was no physical altercation during or after the Russo-Japanese War.

IIRC that myth came from Max Hoffmann who claimed to have seen that when an observer during the Russo-Japanese war. AFAIK there was no such event and Rennenkampf and Samsonov had no ill-will; the problem was just the realities of logistics and Russian over-hasty action causing a breakdown in CiC.

 

[Kalan]

IIRC the whole brawl thing is an urban myth. They might not have liked each other, possibly exacerbated by Skalon and his habit of playing politics and setting his subordinates off against each other, and not co-operated but as far as I'm aware there was no physical altercation during or after the Russo-Japanese War.

Well the story of the fight and the almost duel is mentioned several books for instance The Hinge Factor by Erik Durschmied and Great Military Blunders by Geoffry Regan. So I don't think you can just dismiss it as an urban legend.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Well the story of the fight and the almost duel is mentioned several books for instance The Hinge Factor by Erik Durschmied and Great Military Blunders by Geoffry Regan. So I don't think you can just dismiss it as an urban legend.

Actually you can because it all comes from one flawed source: Max Hoffmann, the only person that stated it. In english his version was dominant because the Russians didn't really have much say in the historiography of the war, especially as Rennenkampf and Samsonov were killed in the war, while Hoffmann wrote memoirs and relentlessly self promoted.

 

[1940LaSalle]

It would require a number of changes since IIRC both Russian armies were seriously under-equipped and their communications security was atrocious using cyphers in their wireless messages that the Germans were easily able to break and therefore know what they were planning.

Worse than that: the Russians sent a lot of their wireless messages unencrypted. Given that, they might as well have told the Germans outright what they were up to.

Between that and the near-blood feud between the key Russian commanders, anything less than the sweeping German victory borders on ASB. Indeed, had the Germans been just a trifle more aggressive, they might have routed the Russians sufficiently to get perhaps as far as Warsaw. Imagine what might have happened with a German-sponsored Polish rising thereafter...

 

[Don Quijote]

You'd have to not fight those battles at all. Really the Russians would have to wait until they finished mobilizing and stay in contact with one another. They rushed into East Prussia before they were fully mobilized to try and take the pressure off of the French and got themselves in trouble. So really they need to abandon all treaty obligations and wait for their forces to get ready. So that would be pretty much politically impossible.

I don't think that has to be the case. Even a partly mobilised Russian army has a lot of men, and can break through light opposition (light in terms of numbers). The advance wasn't neccesarily too early, just uncoordinated. Samsonov and Rennenkampf may not have hated each other, but Rennenkampf's 1st Army didn't come up in time to help the 2nd Army.

At the very beginning of the war, small scale German attacks were made against the Russian Armies, but the Russians beat them off, causing heavy casualties. A few more skirmishes like that before the main battles could have a serious effect on German morale. They did seriously consider abandoning East Prussia before Tannenberg, as some thought it indefensible.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I don't think that has to be the case. Even a partly mobilised Russian army has a lot of men, and can break through light opposition (light in terms of numbers). The advance wasn't neccesarily too early, just uncoordinated. Samsonov and Rennenkampf may not have hated each other, but Rennenkampf's 1st Army didn't come up in time to help the 2nd Army.

At the very beginning of the war, small scale German attacks were made against the Russian Armies, but the Russians beat them off, causing heavy casualties. A few more skirmishes like that before the main battles could have a serious effect on German morale. They did seriously consider abandoning East Prussia before Tannenberg, as some thought it indefensible.

Have you seen OTL? Without logistics and running into the heavily fortified and easily defensible terrain of East Prussia numbers of meaningless. See the East Prussian campaign of 1945 for instance. Plus in 1914 the Germans had a serious firepower advantage, forts, and FAR superior internal lines of communication, which allowed them a stunning strategic mobility the Russians fell victim to. When you read up how the campaign went in 1914 its pretty much impossible for the Russians to win unless they wait to mobilize, move very slowly, and get the 9th or 10th army mobilized to assist with an advance further west. In August/September 1914 you're not going to beat the German 8th army on home turf in East Prussia.

Von Prittwitz panicked over some skirmishes early on and was replaced for very good reason; still right before his was removed he regained his nerve and was coming up with the OTL Tannenberg plan. Still his phone call to von Moltke cost him his job for good reason, there was no reason whatsoever to abandon East Prussia, a moron could defend it very easily, especially given the logistics issues that the huge masses of Russian troops caused when your logistics branch wasn't yet mobilized. As it was in the East of East Prussia where Gumbinnen happened that was the only place where the Russians actually had suffiicient supply to fight and once the Germans pulled back they were out of supply effectively and could not move through the forts in the way, while 8th army redeployed against 2nd army.

 

[Urban fox]

Whatever the truth Rennenkampf and Samsonov were either luntics, selfish glory-hunters or Cadorna level incompetents, given that they truly did refuse to communicate, let alone coordinate tactically.

There must have been some sort of feud (which apprently no-one in St Petersburg thought was a problem.), because no other Russian campaigns were quite this shambolic.

 

[Faeelin]

I think it is a huge stretch to say that Tanneberg was inevitable. Even a bloody battle where the Russians are halted puts the Eastern Front in a very different position than OTL.

 

[Kalan]

Actually you can because it all comes from one flawed source: Max Hoffmann, the only person that stated it. In english his version was dominant because the Russians didn't really have much say in the historiography of the war, especially as Rennenkampf and Samsonov were killed in the war, while Hoffmann wrote memoirs and relentlessly self promoted.

Why are you so convinced that Hoffman lied? Are there other sources which dispute this claim and have other version of what happened during the Russo-Japanese war? How do they explain the fact that Rennenkampf and Samsonov did not communicate and coordinate and not support each other during the invasion of east prussia?

 

[Don Quijote]

Have you seen OTL? Without logistics and running into the heavily fortified and easily defensible terrain of East Prussia numbers of meaningless. See the East Prussian campaign of 1945 for instance. Plus in 1914 the Germans had a serious firepower advantage, forts, and FAR superior internal lines of communication, which allowed them a stunning strategic mobility the Russians fell victim to. When you read up how the campaign went in 1914 its pretty much impossible for the Russians to win unless they wait to mobilize, move very slowly, and get the 9th or 10th army mobilized to assist with an advance further west. In August/September 1914 you're not going to beat the German 8th army on home turf in East Prussia.

Von Prittwitz panicked over some skirmishes early on and was replaced for very good reason; still right before his was removed he regained his nerve and was coming up with the OTL Tannenberg plan. Still his phone call to von Moltke cost him his job for good reason, there was no reason whatsoever to abandon East Prussia, a moron could defend it very easily, especially given the logistics issues that the huge masses of Russian troops caused when your logistics branch wasn't yet mobilized. As it was in the East of East Prussia where Gumbinnen happened that was the only place where the Russians actually had suffiicient supply to fight and once the Germans pulled back they were out of supply effectively and could not move through the forts in the way, while 8th army redeployed against 2nd army.

I think you're exaggerating when you talk about East Prussia being 'heavily fortified and easily defensible.' Are you suggesting that a Russian victory of any kind is impossible at the same time as OTL? And if you want to point to 1945, then you should see quite easily that numbers do help.... a lot.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Why are you so convinced that Hoffman lied? Are there other sources which dispute this claim and have other version of what happened during the Russo-Japanese war? How do they explain the fact that Rennenkampf and Samsonov did not communicate and coordinate and not support each other during the invasion of east prussia?

I have read from other historians that the claim was made up, forget where though. R and S were no different than the other stunningly incompetent Russians generals of WW1, so their failure to do their jobs right is just par for the course and didn't require anything other than incompetence.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

I think you're exaggerating when you talk about East Prussia being 'heavily fortified and easily defensible.' Are you suggesting that a Russian victory of any kind is impossible at the same time as OTL? And if you want to point to 1945, then you should see quite easily that numbers do help.... a lot.

In August-September 1914 yes. The Germans would have to commit mass suicide in Banzai charges to really be crushed in East Prussia at this point given the state of Russian forces in the first 6 weeks of the campaign.

My 1945 comment was that even when the Soviets with heavy superiority in numbers and weapons that their 1914 counterparts could only dream of against a far weaker foe using conscripts, not the hardcore professionals of 1914, had a very difficult time tackling East Prussia, in the hasty invasion of August 1914 the much less professional and dominant Russia army had no chance.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

My 1945 comment was that even when the Soviets with heavy superiority in numbers and weapons that their 1914 counterparts could only dream of against a far weaker foe using conscripts, not the hardcore professionals of 1914, had a very difficult time tackling East Prussia,

While you are correct that the Red Army of 1945 is a entirely different beast compared to the Russian Imperial Army of 1914, I would note that the Soviets did not have a "very difficult time" with East Prussia by any stretch of the imagination. They quickly broke through the German defenses and overran most of the region, save for some relatively small holdouts on the coast, inside of two weeks after all.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

While you are correct that the Red Army of 1945 is a entirely different beast compared to the Russian Imperial Army of 1914, I would note that the Soviets did not have a "very difficult time" with East Prussia by any stretch of the imagination. They quickly broke through the German defenses and overran most of the region, save for some relatively small holdouts on the coast, inside of two weeks after all.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/East_Prussian_Offensive#Opening_of_the_offensive
I meant this. The Soviets had a hard go of it and the odds were heavily in their favor. In 1914 there is no chance in hell of the Russians mustering this kind of firepower and skill on the attack especially given their logistics and lack of CiC.

 

[ObssesedNuker]

The Soviets had a hard go of it

Not really. They breached the German defenses, exploited into the enemies depth, and achieved their strategic objectives all pretty handily. Sure, you can find plenty of points on the tactical level where they had trouble, but there are always plenty of tactical SNAFUs in any major campaign. On the operational-strategic levels (which are what matters), it was a solid success.

In 1914 there is no chance in hell of the Russians mustering this kind of firepower and skill on the attack especially given their logistics and lack of CiC.

Now on that, I don't dispute at all. With hindsight, it's clear the Russians should have kept the defensive against the Germans and focused on smacking around the Austrians.