Russian Objectives in a World Without World Wars

[atlatlman]

(First post. Yay!)
So, after lurking around on the no world wars threads on the website, a common POD I see for lessening international tensions is Europe dodging many national crises (as it did before) until 1917, when it was predicted that Russia would overtake Germany on a military and economic (at least nationally) level, forcing Germany to become more cautious in its foreign policy goals and delaying a war until existing alliances are rearranged, at least. However, a discussion I have not seen is how Russia itself would initiate conflicts after this. After all, Tsar Nicky would now be the ruler of the most powerful military in the world (at least manpower-wise), and Russian foreign policy was not exactly known for being the greatest either. So, what I am asking for is ways that Russia itself might start a world war or other conflict, with a timeframe after 1917. So, what do you think?

(Here is a good discussion on the monster Russia would have become without the horrific casualty events it suffered over the course of the 1900s: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/russia-in-a-world-with-no-world-wars.531275/ )

 

[Lalli]

Russia might go against Ottomans. It would cause alternate WW1.

 

[Dorknought]

Round 2 against Japan in the 1920’s once the fleet has been rebuilt.

 

[Citycat]

As above, the Ottomans and the Japanese would be their primary targets. They would want Constantinople from the Turks and Port Arthur from Japan (even though it was actually Chinese territory).

If they are no longer friendly with Britain ITTL, they might try to extend their influence in southern Iran too.

 

[Helmuth48]

Russia's objective has always been to gain control of the straits (Bosporus and Dardanelles). However, that objective cannot be achieved without a broader European war, because otherwise the Russians would not have the British on their side. If Russia does not use the July crisis of 1914 as an excuse to start a European war, it will use the next crisis in the Balkans as an excuse to start a war to gain control of the straits.

 

[boredviewer1234]

Russian foreign policy was not exactly known for being the greatest either. So, what I am asking for is ways that Russia itself might start a world war or other conflict, with a timeframe after 1917. So, what do you think?

Think Iran might be a big thing, but in itself will likely cause a lot of crises but unlikely a world war.

By that it's forgotten but most of two provinces where occupied and virtually annexed into the Russian empire in 1909 including the city of Tabriz regarded as the second city of Peria , now that sphere of influenced was recognised as part of them joining the entente but that still raises a lot of tension.

For example, if Iranian nationalists, tribals ect are harassing their zone two things can be one punitive expeditions and defensive expansion could be considered. Imperial Russia actually has a lot of room to expand in theory according to the treaty but as it grows more powerful and relations with Britain strain will likely produce a series of crises.

That and the Ottomans to take parts of Iran would likely be another source of tension.

 

[Flavius Iulius Maiorianus]

I doubt Russia would become a massive superpower like some suggest. Say what you will about the USSR, but they did dramatically increase living standards, military power, and industry in Russia. These basically constantly increased until the 1970s, except in periods of intense disruption. Sure, without the wars and communism Russia is much healthier demographically and economically, but I don't see GDP per capita being much higher than OTL.

Also, Germany would at least have a GDP per capita comparable to OTL, if not higher, and they would have a population of around 150 million or so, compared to Russia's 400 million or so. Their military would also be more competent and modern than Russia's. By TTL's 2024, Russia and Germany are probably relatively evenly matched, and both would be nuclear armed world powers, surpassing Britain. But Russia wouldn't be the continent-crushing juggernaut people make it out to be.

OT: A rematch with Japan is probably in the works at some point. Russia would want to reassert their influence in China. Actually, I wonder what would happen to China in general in a no world wars TL.
Another Russo-Turkish war is also entirely possible.

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

Spreading Tsarism, ORthodoxy and autocracy. Probably some combo of the old Great Game plus post-2008 efforts by Putin to fund every reactionary movement in the west.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

A second Russo-Japanese War is less likely. IIRC they actually mended fences pretty quickly once Port Arthur was no longer a bone of contention.

War with the Ottomans is very likely. The Russians are looking for any excuse and Young Turks are liable to provide one. Not sure it would lead to a World War though, pre-war the only power that had actually agreed to support a Russian play for the Straits was Austria-Hungary of all countries. It would be opposed by the Brits and French, but I doubt they'd go to war with their ally over it. Germany would be very opposed, but attacking Russia without defencive grounds to invoke the Triple Alliance would likely keep Germany out of the conflict. As I see it it would be Russia vs the Ottomans, with no shortage of mediators seeking to limit Russian gains to the Armenians bits of eastern Anatolia.

 

[redfire]

There are a lot of possibilities. I think places like Mongolia and Xinjiang could end up Russian. There’s a lot of “soft” territory in Asia for Russia to digest, others have already mentioned Persia. I think Asian gains (excluding against the ottomans) may be less offensive to other European powers.

 

[Kronistry]

I think Russia wouldn't try to directly annex territories (the Empire was already so huge) but rather build a network of puppet states and loyal allies. To do so, the two main targets are the Ottoman Empire (to create an independant Armenia and if possible a "free city" of Constantinople occupied by their army and fleet) and Austria-Hungary (to make Yougoslavia a reality and get an acces to the Mediterranean sea through it with naval bases, etc...).

 

[McAuslan_in_the_Rough]

(First post. Yay!)
So, after lurking around on the no world wars threads on the website, a common POD I see for lessening international tensions is Europe dodging many national crises (as it did before) until 1917, when it was predicted that Russia would overtake Germany on a military and economic (at least nationally) level, forcing Germany to become more cautious in its foreign policy goals and delaying a war until existing alliances are rearranged, at least. However, a discussion I have not seen is how Russia itself would initiate conflicts after this. After all, Tsar Nicky would now be the ruler of the most powerful military in the world (at least manpower-wise), and Russian foreign policy was not exactly known for being the greatest either. So, what I am asking for is ways that Russia itself might start a world war or other conflict, with a timeframe after 1917. So, what do you think?

(Here is a good discussion on the monster Russia would have become without the horrific casualty events it suffered over the course of the 1900s: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/russia-in-a-world-with-no-world-wars.531275/ )

I am going to say that without WWI, the Russian government will have to deal with rural social disruption due to overpopulation and urban labour unrest, which will keep them too busy for much in the way of foreign adventures.

 

[Bones101]

I think Russia wouldn't try to directly annex territories (the Empire was already so huge) but rather build a network of puppet states and loyal allies. To do so, the two main targets are the Ottoman Empire (to create an independant Armenia and if possible a "free city" of Constantinople occupied by their army and fleet) and Austria-Hungary (to make Yougoslavia a reality and get an acces to the Mediterranean sea through it with naval bases, etc...).

Austria-Hungary is a great power, Russia getting access to its Mediterranean bases will never happen as long as that is a reality. It would be bad for the Austrian economy( can't tax imports to Russia) and destroy prestige. Even if they were allies it just can't happen. I find it pretty hard for AH and Russia to be friends in the 20th century, amicable relations and mutual understanding in some areas maybe under someone like Franz Ferdinand but allies? Pretty hard IMO.

 

[Garrison]

Even without the world wars Russia was facing serious internal and external issues. barring substantial political reforms revolution seems inevitable and of course they still have the humiliation of Russo-Japanese War to deal with and the huge naval losses incurred. Without the wars Germany economic power continues to grow and of course the British and French don't suffer the loss of power and wealth incurred by the wars. Rather than expansionism its more likely other powers will be looking at Russian territory.

 

[Kronistry]

Austria-Hungary is a great power, Russia getting access to its Mediterranean bases will never happen as long as that is a reality. It would be bad for the Austrian economy( can't tax imports to Russia) and destroy prestige. Even if they were allies it just can't happen. I find it pretty hard for AH and Russia to be friends in the 20th century, amicable relations and mutual understanding in some areas maybe under someone like Franz Ferdinand but allies? Pretty hard IMO.

You misunderstood my post, I spoke of a war between Russia and Austria-Hungary so that Russia could help Serbia create Yougoslavia and have access to the YOUGOSLAV naval bases on the Adriatic. I know this is unlikely but it might be Russia's long-term goal in the region.

 

[AltoRegnant]

Spreading Tsarism, ORthodoxy and autocracy. Probably some combo of the old Great Game plus post-2008 efforts by Putin to fund every reactionary movement in the west.

this seems to be applying some backwards thinking, or circular reasoning. the tsarist regime wasn't interested in turning sweden, serbia, or eastern Germany into absolute monarchist puppets. if it was expanding into Europe, it was for prestige and for security. in this case, that means supporting balkan nationalism (specifically balkan due to thier own polish minorities,) against AH and the Ottomans. while the regimes that came from those nations were usually orthodox monarchies, that's more to do with the cultural affinity that led to russian support in the first place

 

[Aisha Clan-Clan]

I was thinking more of encouraging social conservatism/reactionary politics combined with foreign policy neutrality. As far as direct military expansion? Probably what you said, but even then would be way more looser and informal than say WarPac dynamics.

 

[Lalli]

Even without the world wars Russia was facing serious internal and external issues. barring substantial political reforms revolution seems inevitable and of course they still have the humiliation of Russo-Japanese War to deal with and the huge naval losses incurred. Without the wars Germany economic power continues to grow and of course the British and French don't suffer the loss of power and wealth incurred by the wars. Rather than expansionism its more likely other powers will be looking at Russian territory.

Agree that Russia was walking towards revolution not matter what. There just was too much of internal pressures which just were waiting to blow to Nicky's face. But without WW1 this probably won't happen before mid-1920's. And it is not communist revolution at least not very likely but ratherly just bigger 1905 revolution which ends either Russia becoming true constitutional monarchy with stronger parliament or republic.

 

[atlatlman]

I’m not sure how eager Russia would be to start a war for Constantinople. The naval arms race between Germany and Britain was already dying down by 1914, and Britain had always historically opposed the strongest nation on the Continent, so I could see them switching, post 1917 to Germany’s side to oppose Russia’s (real or just suspected) military might and potential military gains, complicating a play for the Bosporus even further.

Agree that Russia was walking towards revolution not matter what. There just was too much of internal pressures which just were waiting to blow to Nicky's face. But without WW1 this probably won't happen before mid-1920's. And it is not communist revolution at least not very likely but ratherly just bigger 1905 revolution which ends either Russia becoming true constitutional monarchy with stronger parliament or republic.

And this would be another fascinating question: would European powers intervene in an independent, (likely) non-Bolshevik Russian Revolution, or would they stay out of it?

 

[Sol Zagato]

Constantinople, Manchuria, East Turkestan, Mongolia, menacing Iran or Afghanistan, and a deal on the Sund tolls.

Some kind of Pan-Slavic solidarity mess in the Balkans.