During the late 19th/early 20th century Russia became notorious for its attempts to acquire a warm water port in the Asia-Pacific region. In the 1890s there was sort of a squabble between Germany, Japan and the U.S. to obtain colonies in the Pacific, could the Russian Empire have potentially thrown its hat in the ring in this squabble too? A feasible scenario in which Russia gains Pacific concessions could be after the Spanish-American War, in which Spain sells its remaining Pacific colonies to Russia as opposed to Germany as it did in OTL. Would the Russians have been able to establish a warm water port in the Pacific or would the islands be unable to support such a base? After the Russian Revolution, would one of the Allied Powers such as the U.S. or Japan have seized the islands? There's no way the Bolsheviks can get to them.
Russian Empire obtains Pacific colonies?
- Thread starter hedabla99
- Start date
Russia probably could have achieved this, but colonies in the Pacific would be far away and difficult to defend, especially in the 1890s when Britain was a hostile power. Hence why they got rid of Alaska in the 1860s. Also, the colonies in the Pacific that Germany controlled IOTL wouldn't offer much value to Russia.
Russian colonies in the Pacific aren't impossible to get, but probably very difficult to keep longterm due to the sheer distance from Moscow to manage. It's why Alexander II sold Alaska to the US - too far away to defend from a British invasion and not worth much at the time either. There's probably a timeline where Russia gets part of Korea or some Chinese port cities longterm though.
Establishing such a port (or rather two ports) even in China proved to be a costly failure even before the RJW because of the communications issue and a very limited Pacific trade. As a meaningful naval base the idea is even worse because for this purpose you need either extensive local supply and repair facilities or a reliable control of the sea routes. How would it work for an island located in the middle of nowhere?
Not to mention that the whole mantra of the warm water ports was just senseless. Murmansk is a warm water port but it was created only during WWI. By the early XX, when this was a hype, the icebreakers already existed.
Something of the kind could make a practical sense only as a resupply point on a way to the Russian Far East but this goal was achieved throughout the XIX century without creating any bases, just by stopping in the friendly ports. Nagasaki was extremely popular stopping area. So popular that there were special accommodations for the Russian naval officers staying there for a long time. Until, of course, the idiotic activities during the reign of NII (of which, unfortunately, Witte was one of the initiators).
Korea north of the 3x-th parallel was proposed in the Russian sphere during the Russo-Japanese war
Yes, and it was convincingly demonstrated that at that time Russian Empire was incapable to back its ambitious expansion plans against serious opposition. The logistics was terribly wrong (on a top of both army and navy being in a desperate need of the massive change both in material and commanding cadres). But besides that, the “Bezobrazov’s affair” turned to be a financial failure and so was Witte’s ambitious plan for Darien/Dalni. Harbin also was a money pit. And Port Arthur was not just a bad naval base but the empire could not afford the expenses needed for its adequate fortifications, not to mention that maintening in Manchuria the military force needed for providing a secure communication with it was a violation of the international agreements, etc.
Actually, with all investments wasted in the wring places Russia could not even defend Vladivostok, which was a serious “bargaining chip” in its post-RJW commercial negotiations with Japan. Add to this a demographic problem in the Far East region (Chinese were getting into it illegally in the numbers which were considered dangerous and controlled a big part of the local economy) and it is clear that a base on the Pacific islands was not a top priority.
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Grey Wolf
Donor
Well, if the Russians get the Carolines instead of Germany then they also get Truk
en.wikipedia.org
Japan made it their main forward naval base after they got it from the Germans, so in theory the Russians COULD
Chuuk Lagoon - Wikipedia
Japan made it their main forward naval base after they got it from the Germans, so in theory the Russians COULD
The British somehow didn't understand this about the Murmansk area and developed a strange fear in the mid 19th century that Russia was going to invade northern Norway to seize some fjords that they did know were ice free. The level of paranoia about warm water ports was incredible.
Indeed. Especially taking into an account that the Russian navy was not a competitor to the RN in the terms of “ruling the seas”.
Russia can obtain Pacific Islands if it wants to… on paper. Actually keeping and holding those islands if a Pacific naval power wants to take it is another story.
The contiguous Pacific territory in Russia’s Far East were already difficult to defend from Japan, a second-rate power, with troops capable of being moved there by land. Any far off islands are easy pickings in a war. And considering Russia’s #1 geopolitical enemy in the late 19th century was the UK, the largest naval power, it would be a complete waste of resources.
As for islands they showed interest in OTL, that is limited to Hawaii. The Russian-America Company wanted it to supply food Alaska. The problem is, if the scheme is successful, it likely leads to both Alaska and Hawaii getting taken by the UK in the Crimean War. In OTL, the UK left Alaska alone because it was “useless” and the Hudson’s Bay Company had agreed to a North American truce with the Russians. If Hawaii is owned by the Russians, I can’t see the UK not taking the opportunity to grab such useful real estate in the Pacific. And if Hawaii made Alaska more profitable as an economic set, the UK can keep the successful arrangement under its crown.
Besides Hawaii, the islands closest to mainland Asia are Micronesia, under Spanish control. Russia can’t beat Spain for them, nor would it want to try. You have South Pacific islands that won’t be colonized until much later, but those have zero utility to Russia. And any islands they take are gone after WWI, it’s not like anyone will allow the Bolsheviks to have a presence in the Pacific.
The contiguous Pacific territory in Russia’s Far East were already difficult to defend from Japan, a second-rate power, with troops capable of being moved there by land. Any far off islands are easy pickings in a war. And considering Russia’s #1 geopolitical enemy in the late 19th century was the UK, the largest naval power, it would be a complete waste of resources.
As for islands they showed interest in OTL, that is limited to Hawaii. The Russian-America Company wanted it to supply food Alaska. The problem is, if the scheme is successful, it likely leads to both Alaska and Hawaii getting taken by the UK in the Crimean War. In OTL, the UK left Alaska alone because it was “useless” and the Hudson’s Bay Company had agreed to a North American truce with the Russians. If Hawaii is owned by the Russians, I can’t see the UK not taking the opportunity to grab such useful real estate in the Pacific. And if Hawaii made Alaska more profitable as an economic set, the UK can keep the successful arrangement under its crown.
Besides Hawaii, the islands closest to mainland Asia are Micronesia, under Spanish control. Russia can’t beat Spain for them, nor would it want to try. You have South Pacific islands that won’t be colonized until much later, but those have zero utility to Russia. And any islands they take are gone after WWI, it’s not like anyone will allow the Bolsheviks to have a presence in the Pacific.
Nobody was a peer competitor to the RN in the 19th century but the Russian navy was the second largest in the world in the days before steam changed everything and would have been a reasonable threat if allied with the French in some British nightmare scenario. The quality didn't match the RN but Nicholas I certainly improved things and kept up on innovations like shell guns.
After steam came around in the 1840s and 1850s it was all over for Russia though.
How about Korea? If Russia shows enough interest in the Korean Peninsula and the Joseon dynasty, then it could potentially use events in the Korean Peninsula to the Russian Empires advantage and reduce the Joseph Dynasty to a protectorate with Russian naval bases.