Russia without ww1

[Jan Karol Chodkiewicz]

Just what position does Russia find itself geopolitically wise if ww1 and ww2 don't happen? Years leading to ww1 were a period of major economic growth, does this growth continue further?

Internally, does Russia make a switch to constitutional monarchy?

Edit - wrong forum @CalBear

 

[ahmedali]

Just what position does Russia find itself geopolitically wise if ww1 and ww2 don't happen? Years leading to ww1 were a period of major economic growth, does this growth continue further?

Internally, does Russia make a switch to constitutional monarchy?

Edit - wrong forum @CalBear

Avoiding World War I is not a solution


Killing Nicholas II is the solution and replacing him with his brother Mikhail


(Nicholas II was very stubborn and refused to concede any power)

 

[riggerrob]

A few million fewer casualties from War and the Revolution.
Russia's slow industrialization would continue similar to the slow industrialization of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, but hereditary nobility would need to learn how to cede some political power to industrialists as industrialists become more wealthy than traditional land-owning nobility. At a minimum, noble families need to marry their daughters into the wealthier industrial families.

 

[Slime_blob]

1950 Russia will be The economic superpower in Europe. Probably militarily.

Avoiding World War I is not a solution


Killing Nicholas II is the solution and replacing him with his brother Mikhail


(Nicholas II was very stubborn and refused to concede any power)

Nicky II knew that if he conceded power, the revolutionaries will demand more and more.

He knew what happened to his grandpa, got assasinated. Meanwhile his Dad's reign, with tsarist autocracy is effectiveness efficiency stability and peace also rapid modernization etc etc

Problem with Nicky II is that he isn't prepared to be tsar when he became one. longer reign of Alex III would do and should prepare him to the throne.

So he will rule as an autocrat but probably more open to ideas and others. I think best would be Nicky being enlightened despot or enlightened absolutism.

 

[ahmedali]

1950 Russia will be The economic superpower in Europe. Probably militarily.

Nicky II knew that if he conceded power, the revolutionaries will demand more and more.

He knew what happened to his grandpa, got assasinated. Meanwhile his Dad's reign, with tsarist autocracy is effectiveness efficiency stability and peace also rapid modernization etc etc

Problem with Nicky II is that he isn't prepared to be tsar when he became one. longer reign of Alex III would do and should prepare him to the throne.

So he will rule as an autocrat but probably more open to ideas and others. I think best would be Nicky being enlightened despot or enlightened absolutism.

A very capable tyrant


Requires turning him into a version of his father (cruel and intimidating to intimidate the opposition)


And a copy of Kaiser Wilhelm II and Napoleon III (interested in modernization, economic development and people's conditions)


Which requires completely changing his personality


His brother Mikhail is fitting for the liberal Tsar and making Russia a constitutional monarchy

 

[Bored Young Man]

Snip

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Despite all their propaganda the Russian Empire wasn't just one emperor. You had the noble aristocracy via the extended royal family, great houses, their friends, and supporters that took the top positions of government regardless of merit. Many ministers were appointed military men (nobles) with extensive corruption and incompetence. You had the Most Holy Synod with entrenched parasitic interests. All of whom really wanted to enjoy their unearned power and privilege at the expense of the Russian Empire.

As for the personality, when Alex III choose arch-reactionary-conservative Konstantin Petrovich Pobedonostsev to tutor the Tsarevich(heir) he was basically indoctrinating Nicky into Autocracy-Orthodoxy-and Nationality. Given the state of medicine and surgery at the time, there was nothing to prevent Alex III dying in 1894 due to kidney failure and it was quite likely that Nicky will stay the course of bull-headed autocracy, incompetence, and corruption.

But... its not guaranteed that Alex II dies via-explosive redistribution, thus giving granddaddy time to enact reforms and prevent Alex III's reactionary hardening from witnessing his daddy's traumatic death. What I'm saying is that the best pod is pre-1881.

Just what position does Russia find itself geopolitically wise if ww1 and ww2 don't happen? Years leading to ww1 were a period of major economic growth, does this growth continue further?

Internally, does Russia make a switch to constitutional monarchy?

Edit - wrong forum @CalBear

As for growth, it was slower than Western Europe on a per capita basis but across a vast population. There's going to be the simple issue of distance as the economic heart of Europe was around the North Atlantic, growth was going to be slower just by virtue of being further from the major markets further West and not having the same easy-river highways built by nature in England, Belgium, and Germany.

Around 1914 the Russian economy was in a period of transition with nascent value added industries such as optics, chemical refineries, machine tools. It was just at the great transition point between seasonal laborers from the countryside to permanent industrial laborers residing in the cities. Given the poor record of workers rights for the entirety of Nicky's regime, as in only present on the books and no where else expect massive labor unrest. While poorly organized around 1%-5% unionization with zero political power allowed by law labor strikes were common and the official reaction often heavy-handed if not murderous. Given the trend of increasing urbanization of predominately young workers, poor living conditions, oppressive and reactionary official responses its a ticking time-bomb.

The last-time in 1905, the Tsar burned his good-will among the common people and middle-class but was saved by the loyalty of the army. Without WW1 there's going to be a lot of civil-unrest, the question being if they could form a wide-front with professionals, nobles, and business owners like 1905 and side-line the Tsar or is it going to be more bloody. Given that the majority of the populace and middle-class no longer viewed peaceful-change as possible given Nicky's rollback against the Duma and violent reaction post 1905 it's quite likely to lead to civil-unrest and most likely war.

Transport was still a mix of water-rail during summer to sleds-rail during winter. Trucks were just too expensive and inefficient for the vastness of Russia. Expect a lot more railways, water-travel will still be limited. Agriculture was in two worlds with large estates exporting surpluses and the majority of farmers stuck in subsistence agriculture on small plots. Change needed to happen with the subsistence farmers least they reach Malthusian limits, but I don't trust the Tsarist state to do it efficiently or amicably without leaving millions of disgruntled peasants.

Its the classical industrialization problem; Rulers want all the nice toys and factories, but not to share any power with a bunch of educated, organized, and aware workers concentrated in those factories.

 

[Slime_blob]

A very capable tyrant


Requires turning him into a version of his father (cruel and intimidating to intimidate the opposition)


And a copy of Kaiser Wilhelm II and Napoleon III (interested in modernization, economic development and people's conditions)


Which requires completely changing his personality


His brother Mikhail is fitting for the liberal Tsar and making Russia a constitutional monarchy

Problem with Nicky is that he isn't prepared, but he showed signs of being an enlightened despot.

He is obviously interested in modernization, economic development, industrialization, improving peoples conditions. Like what he did otl. Insurance to workers, healthcare, education funding industrialization via French loans. Building infrastructure. Problem being Russia is so big

I mean, if Nicky is prepared to take throne. Russia will be good under his reign.

Nicky being an enlightened despot is the best case here . An Enlightened Absolutist. The Duma was dysfunctional so ineffective and inefficient that Nicky had to iotl bypass the Duma just to pass needed laws and others such as military modernization to have funds

 

[Slime_blob]

As for the personality, when Alex III choose arch-reactionary-conservative Konstantin Petrovich Pobedonostsev to tutor the Tsarevich(heir) he was basically indoctrinating Nicky into Autocracy-Orthodoxy-and Nationality. Given the state of medicine and surgery at the time, there was nothing to prevent Alex III dying in 1894 due to kidney failure.

Earlier treatment and detection might help him live a bit longer? Is it possible Just enough for Nicky to get teached

 

[Analytical Engine]

Killing Nicholas II is the solution and replacing him with his brother Mikhail


(Nicholas II was very stubborn and refused to concede any power)

Not having Alexander III die so early might help. He was only 49 when he died, and would have been 58 when WWI starts.

 

[ahmedali]

Problem with Nicky is that he isn't prepared, but he showed signs of being an enlightened despot.

He is obviously interested in modernization, economic development, industrialization, improving peoples conditions. Like what he did otl. Insurance to workers, healthcare, education funding industrialization via French loans. Building infrastructure. Problem being Russia is so big

I mean, if Nicky is prepared to take throne. Russia will be good under his reign.

Nicky being an enlightened despot is the best case here . An Enlightened Absolutist. The Duma was dysfunctional so ineffective and inefficient that Nicky had to iotl bypass the Duma just to pass needed laws and others such as military modernization to have funds

He must be a strong and fearsome character like his father Alexander III


Being meek when he should have been fierce didn't help


He could have ruled until 1960 if he had a more powerful, decisive and intelligent personality


Most important of all, he changed his personal life


(Anyone, even a Japanese or Ottoman princess, would be much better than Alex of Hesse seriously


(Wilhelm's sister Margarethe would be suitable as wife to Nicholas)



Make him more inclined to listen to his mother and moderate members of the family and avoid reactionary members


(Maria Fyodorna had some good advice like reducing rusting, but ignore her ferocious hatred of Germans.)


Make him less affected by the court factions and make his word the last word, whether the court or his family like his father


(His continuing to improve his relations with the Ottomans as his father did was a clever thing, but supporting Serbia against Austria was a complete folly)


And most importantly, he must be smart


(Supporting Japan's proposals for influence over Korea and Russia over Manchuria would be a smart thing because it would drive the Japanese away from Britain and bring them closer to the Russians instead of underestimating Japan.)


Abandoning France in favor of reviving the League of the Three Emperors would be a clever thing

(If Nicholas uses his brain, he will realize that he will gain nothing from antagonizing the Germans, since his cousin is German, and he is half German himself, and it is the French who will gain, not him)


(And the Balkans, which betrayed Russia several times, does not deserve the blood of a single Russian man)



(While the approval of the Turks can give him freedom of transportation and an economic preference for his country and cut Iran between him and them)



And imitate your cousin Willie and grant concessions and rights to the workers and pay attention to the latest developments, but do not give a constitution



He downplayed the nobility and appointed men as skilled in their work as Stollpin (his surviving his assassination would greatly help Nicholas)



Repeal Paul's first laws



(Alexei is a nice boy, but face it, he won't live long, your daughters are the ones who will survive, and you don't want to give your throne to your cousin Vlad, so repeal these stupid laws)



Things like this can guarantee a decent Nicholas II (not very smart but decent and not a moron in OTL)

 

[ahmedali]

Not having Alexander III die so early might help. He was only 49 when he died, and would have been 58 when WWI starts.

Yes, and being more intelligent and desperate not to enter any war


He can agree to Japan's proposals to divide influence in China between them

 

[Bored Young Man]

Earlier treatment and detection might help him live a bit longer? Is it possible Just enough for Nicky to get teached

Its hard to say, something likes Nicky's indecisiveness, desire to serve the country, pathological need to agree in person but only in person, fervent belief in his own divinity aren't quite something that can be changed with more tutoring.

Somethings, like his micromanaging might be weaned off of, which IOTL combined with his desire to serve the country meant the Tsar toiling away on worthless things like designing military uniforms while deferring important policy decisions due to his indecisiveness.

 

[Diego]

Russia's slow industrialization would continue similar to the slow industrialization of the Austro-Hungarian Empire

Those two were rapidly modernizing and industrializing from the start of the century until WW1.

 

[Elfwine]

"Rapidly" feels like it depends on how you want to describe it.

Example (from The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers by Paul Kennedy):
Austria-Hungary's steel production has gone up 1.5 million tons from 1900 to 1913. Or, if you want to describe it another way, it has more than doubled (from 1.1 to 2.6 million tons).
Russia has gone up from 2.2 million tons to 4.8 million tons.

But, to compare this to the other Great Powers:
France: 1.5 to 4.6 million in the same period.
Britain: 5 to 7.7 million in the same period.
Germany: 6.3 to 17.6 million in the same period.
The United States: 10.3 to 31.8 million in the same period.
Italy has gone up even fastest of all (0.11 million to 0.93 million), if we're measuring percentages.

Granted, steel is not the only measure here - but "total industrial potential" if the UK in 1900 is 100 (per the same source):
Britain: Up to 127.2
US: 127.8 to 298.1
Germany: 71.2 to 137.7
France: 36.8 to 57.3
Russia: 47.5 to 76.6
Austria-Hungary: 25.6 to 40.7

Honestly from my reading I'd say its less that Russia is industrializing too slowly as that increased steel production is only a partial illustration of "modernizing" as relates to the lot of its people or the wealth of the country - it would help a lot for agriculture to improve more than it did OTL, for example.

 

[Slime_blob]

He must be a strong and fearsome character like his father Alexander III


Being meek when he should have been fierce didn't help


He could have ruled until 1960 if he had a more powerful, decisive and intelligent personality


Most important of all, he changed his personal life


(Anyone, even a Japanese or Ottoman princess, would be much better than Alex of Hesse seriously


(Wilhelm's sister Margarethe would be suitable as wife to Nicholas)



Make him more inclined to listen to his mother and moderate members of the family and avoid reactionary members


(Maria Fyodorna had some good advice like reducing rusting, but ignore her ferocious hatred of Germans.)


Make him less affected by the court factions and make his word the last word, whether the court or his family like his father


(His continuing to improve his relations with the Ottomans as his father did was a clever thing, but supporting Serbia against Austria was a complete folly)


And most importantly, he must be smart


(Supporting Japan's proposals for influence over Korea and Russia over Manchuria would be a smart thing because it would drive the Japanese away from Britain and bring them closer to the Russians instead of underestimating Japan.)


Abandoning France in favor of reviving the League of the Three Emperors would be a clever thing

(If Nicholas uses his brain, he will realize that he will gain nothing from antagonizing the Germans, since his cousin is German, and he is half German himself, and it is the French who will gain, not him)


(And the Balkans, which betrayed Russia several times, does not deserve the blood of a single Russian man)



(While the approval of the Turks can give him freedom of transportation and an economic preference for his country and cut Iran between him and them)



And imitate your cousin Willie and grant concessions and rights to the workers and pay attention to the latest developments, but do not give a constitution



He downplayed the nobility and appointed men as skilled in their work as Stollpin (his surviving his assassination would greatly help Nicholas)



Repeal Paul's first laws



(Alexei is a nice boy, but face it, he won't live long, your daughters are the ones who will survive, and you don't want to give your throne to your cousin Vlad, so repeal these stupid laws)



Things like this can guarantee a decent Nicholas II (not very smart but decent and not a moron in OTL)

His main mistake was foreign policy where Russo Japanese war showed the cracks of the regime and his downfall at WW1 his failure to deescalate the situation. He attempted to do it. Problem is Frqnce, and Germany are war mongering against each other escalating the situation. France wanting A-L meanwhile AH being supported by Germany.

Practically everything was on auto pilot when he took the throne. He can either spend more like take more loans to make things quicker or nah

Nicky knew that if he adopted a very Liberal one like his grandpa, he will end up like him. He practically saw iirc how his grandpa died at bed. That would have given him chills.

His father meanwhile brought stability to Russia. With the help of an iron fist

Problem being he isn't as strong handed or heavy handed as his dad. Often delegating to his ministers and advisers.

That's why he adopted a moderate one, though often delegating. If that is what he thinks is right, then that is what he will do. Even if practically everyone doesn't want it. He practically have sympathies and caring to the peasantry.

Problem with aligning with Germany is that France is their biggest investor, and lender and major trade partner. If he did that, investments would tank down, where will he get his easy loans to fund his projects.How would he fund his industrialization and modernization. If continuing to align with France can just give Russia a big fat cheque, why not align to them. Can Germany do that, technically no, because A-H won't be happy and would probably abdandon them.

It makes sense that he align with France, aside from Germany siding with AH who is competing in Balkans with them.

His competent ministers dying would be one of the problem. Maybe have them live longer. Not assasinated iirc one like otl.

I do agree that putting laws in succession that prevents women to be on throne is needed.

 

[Hearkener]

Just what position does Russia find itself geopolitically wise if ww1 and ww2 don't happen? Years leading to ww1 were a period of major economic growth, does this growth continue further?

Internally, does Russia make a switch to constitutional monarchy?

Russia is still deadlocked in its 1900 borders by the other great powers. It can't go south into Central Asia without risking war with the Empire. It can't go west without confronting the combined might of Germany and Austria-Hungary. The route into China is blocked by Japan and once more the UK. Russia could move into the Ottoman Empire, but again the other European powers would not allow it to take Constantinople or Anatolia.

Economic growth continues, but is not comparable to the industrialization experienced under the Soviet Union. Unlike the Soviets, the Tsar has to account for the political power of the landed aristocrats and large landholders. They are the base of his power, so unlike Stalin he can't just kill all of them. Industrialization is not in their interest, so they will divert efforts at modernization at every turn. By 1950 Russia might be on par with Germany and the UK. It won't be the world's greatest military power like in OTL and certainly not an equal enemy to the USA.

In 1905, the Russian Tsar had the advocates of Constitutional Monarchy massacred in the streets of Moscow. After this point they are neutralized as a political force. Opposition to the regime falls entirely to Republicans and Socialists. That means that hopes for constitutional rule are essentially dead. The only options remaining to the Tsar now are a continuation of absolute monarchy, a western-style republic and a socialist worker's republic.

 

[Bored Young Man]

Snip

Good stats, it feels similar like German, French, and English projections onto Russia based purely on population (Sorta like China and India today). While ignoring the actual conditions of that population which is landlocked, poorly literate, and materially poor.

Another thing to add is that the Empire will be very unevenly developed with regions bordering industrial Germany (and AH) accounting for the majority of industrial production and overwhelmingly full of Poles resentful of Russification. Or regions like Finland doing well specifically because of a combination of their autonomy which the Tsar was rolling back and market access.

 

[Elfwine]

Yeah. I don't think there's anything that means it'll stall at 1913 figures (though circumstances are so different with no WWI that I don't think quoting the post-1913 figures gives us a meaningful answer on how anyone looks, except maybe the US), but Russia is both impressive and not so impressive as far as industrialization here.

I don't think that basic description is changing very soon relative to 1913.