Rudolf II dies in 1591, Emperor Ernst?

[Vitruvius]

I recently came across an anecdote in Peter H Wilson's book on the 30YW about Rudolf II. Apparently in 1591 he was conducting an experiment that literally blew up in his face, burning his cheek and singeing off the hair of his beard and eyebrows. Wilson dates this to September and says another observer standing nearby was killed. I found another source, a dispatch from the Venetian Ambassador to Prague, that dates the even to March 1591 but otherwise corroborates the story saying specifically that it involved heating large quantities of spirits and combining them with gunpowder. Easy to see how that could go wrong. So let's say the explosion is a little more violent and Rudolf is killed instantly or mortally wounded. Aside from making his death a great piece of trivia for future generations it would seem to have pretty serious consequences for Austria and Europe in general.

In 1591 his next eldest brother Ernst is still alive, and still governing Austria so I assume he becomes Emperor but then what? Ernst died in 1595 OTL so he may not have many years left. Does he marry Isabella Clara Eugenia or now that he's Emperor does he marry a German princess (maybe Maria Anna of Bavaria, OTL wife of Ferdinand II), or even an Austrian cousin (Anne of Austria, otl wife of Sigismund III)? Ultimately the brothers conflict between Matthias, Maximilian, Albert and their cousins in Styria may still be a problem if Ernst dies a few years later without a clear heir. On the other hand if he dies with a minor son only a couple years old that's not much better.

Looking elsewhere does Philip install Albert as regent in Brussels in 1594 instead of Ernst, and does he marry Isabella to him earlier (assuming she doesn't marry Ernst). In 1591 I think she's still a major factor in the French succession struggle. Also there's the impending war with the Turks, OTL's Long Turkish War. Is there any chance Austria could do better and recover more of Hungary? Or if Ernst died in the middle of the war and threw the Austrian side into chaos would they do worse, maybe another siege of Vienna?

 

[VVD0D95]

What did Ernest die of otl? If it's something g silly it could probably be butterflies easily enough

 

[Kynan]

Ok so here's some thoughts:

• Emperor Ernest and the Infanta Isabella are going to be married. OTL, the only reason she married later was that Philip II of Spain was very desperate for her to marry the Emperor. She'd been betrothed to Rudolf of Austria since 1568 (age 2) but had not married and it had taken more than 20 years for him to announce he would not marry her.
• Emperor Ernest's death seems a mystery to me, although since he died in Brussels, it's likely he could live longer than OTL. If that is true, the Holy Roman Emperor could easily live until the 1610's, if not the 1620's. His family did have pretty good genes for long living, but it depends on how healthy you can assume he was.
• Isabella is now marrying at 25, rather than 33 as OTL. Granted, she's still marrying a first cousin, but it's likely she had a child or two, male or female, it's the author's choice. OTL, I'd say her close relations with her husband (same ITL) in addition to her age (not a problem ITL) prevented her from having children who made it past infancy, although these websites give her three children: the Archdukes Philip (b.1605) and Albert (b.1607) and the Archduchess Anna Mauritia (DOB unrecorded), all of whom apparently only lived to early childhood.
• Isabella seems to have done well, although not spectacularly, as Sovereign of the Netherlands. Independence was maintained, and with her husband, the Infanta acted as patron for many notable artists of the time. Her court was, in a way, a testing ground for art, diplomacy and religion, with Spanish, Italian, German and even English men enjoying at least a partial freedom the did not have elsewhere. Under her, it also acted as a vital link for Spain to the outside world, for her brother in Madrid.

 

[Vitruvius]

I tried looking into Ernst but couldn't find much. Most of the references I read just said he died suddenly. Which makes you think of either something random like a fall from a horse, or a disease like smallpox. However, one book on the history of the Dutch revolt seemed to suggest that he was quit sick for the last few months of his life, like he had chronic health issues. And several did mention he was overweight by the end of his life, although I take that with a grain of salt. On the other hand, like you say, all four brothers that lived into adulthood (Rudolf, Matthias, Maximilian and Albert) lived to be 60 +/- a year so it seems like he could have lived longer under different circumstances. But it's very hard to say without knowing what exactly he died of OTL.

But even if he doesn't live that long you'd have to think that if he married quickly he could have at least 1-2 kids before he died, granted, if they're underage it's not immediately helpful.

Putting a pin in that. If he does marry Isabella then would the Imperial court move from Prague to Brussels? Or would this marriage not come with the same grant of sovereignty as her marriage to Albert? It would certainly be a challenge to try to rule the Spanish Netherlands, deal with the Dutch revolt, deal with a potential war with the Turks in Hungary, a potentially ongoing conflict with France and its new King Henry IV, while also contending with your own relations as Matthias seems likely to be just as much of a problem for Ernst as he was for Rudolf. It just seems like Ernst and Isabella would have a lot on their plate. Maybe it would be better if the Imperial court stayed in Prague, or moved to Vienna and they leave the government of the Netherlands to Albert.

 

[Shiva]

I tried looking into Ernst but couldn't find much. Most of the references I read just said he died suddenly. Which makes you think of either something random like a fall from a horse, or a disease like smallpox. However, one book on the history of the Dutch revolt seemed to suggest that he was quit sick for the last few months of his life, like he had chronic health issues. And several did mention he was overweight by the end of his life, although I take that with a grain of salt. On the other hand, like you say, all four brothers that lived into adulthood (Rudolf, Matthias, Maximilian and Albert) lived to be 60 +/- a year so it seems like he could have lived longer under different circumstances. But it's very hard to say without knowing what exactly he died of OTL.

But even if he doesn't live that long you'd have to think that if he married quickly he could have at least 1-2 kids before he died, granted, if they're underage it's not immediately helpful.

Putting a pin in that. If he does marry Isabella then would the Imperial court move from Prague to Brussels? Or would this marriage not come with the same grant of sovereignty as her marriage to Albert? It would certainly be a challenge to try to rule the Spanish Netherlands, deal with the Dutch revolt, deal with a potential war with the Turks in Hungary, a potentially ongoing conflict with France and its new King Henry IV, while also contending with your own relations as Matthias seems likely to be just as much of a problem for Ernst as he was for Rudolf. It just seems like Ernst and Isabella would have a lot on their plate. Maybe it would be better if the Imperial court stayed in Prague, or moved to Vienna and they leave the government of the Netherlands to Albert.

In this era the noble class tended towards being overweight due to all the fatty foods that they ate due to A) Being rich and B) Wanting to show off being right, as a result they tended to have a lot of weight related health problems.

Gout was one of them.

Now in our era Gout is easily treated, but then it could be very debilitating, especially in old age.

It kind of sounds like Ernst had Gout and suffered complications from it for a while before dying.

But I could be wrong.