I understand that this is borderline ASB, but for the purposes of the timeline let's say that the Republican Party convention ends up being brokered following an exceptionally close race, and Paul emerges as a compromise candidate, and then goes on to beat Obama following the financial crisis in September 2008. (I know, I know, but bear with me.) What does a Paul Administration do differently than the Obama Administration did during its first term? Is President Paul reelected in 2012?
Ron Paul Elected President in 2008
- Thread starter Evil Opus
- Start date
Well, we can forget any further bailouts, and no stimulus package, meaning the recession likely gets worse. Paul will push for a return to the gold standard; I'm not particularly knowledgeable about whether or not he will have to go through congress in order to do so or not (if he does, then I doubt it will pass). Most likely we will see an attempt to stimulate the economy in the form of massive tax breaks and cuts to spending. We will also see an earlier pull out of Afganistan and Iraq, rather than a surge.
In the end, Paul does not get reelected. In fact, and goes down as a well-meaning but disastrous President. I suspect this ALT Paul and FAT Henry Wallace could have a few beers together to discuss their administrations
Now, for a more workable POD: have Kerry win in 04 and have the economy tank a month or two earlier. The there is no question a Republican is going to win the Presidency and so everyone and their mother throws their hats into the Republican primaries. With his appeal to younger voters, and a growing movement amongst Republicans to not run a moderate (every time they do, they lose. Just look at Bush Sr., Dole, W.) and a crowded field, Paul is able to pick up some early wins and build momentum. A Stop Paul campaign starts amongst the party leadership, but the best candidate they can come up with is Romney (who embarrasses himself by being caught on a live microphone making disparaging comments about the crowd) and its all over. Paul manages to secure the nomination. Of course he manages to scare the cheap out of a lot of people, but Kerry manages to sink his own campaign ... somehow. Paul narrowly wins the Presidency, but has to deal with a split congress and a suspicious public.
Yeah, probably still ASB, but it's the best I got
Ron Paul would abandon TARP, the rest of the banks would do a Lehman and the global financial system would collapse. The stimulus and auto-rescue would not be attempted. Given other countries experience in this sort of situation, unemployment would likely hit 20%-30%.
Paul would probably make an effort to pass a budget that dramatically eliminated the deficit and to re-establish the gold standard. In the face of huge criticism from the economics community, congress would oppose such a budget, and our political system would descend into even worse acrimony than under Obama. The Republican party would probably be torn apart, as the internal defenders of the military, Israel and social security blasted the unfair way Paul came to be president.
We would probably see huge popular discontent, with large-scale protests and possibly riots against the president, possibly leading to a lot of racial animosity. The Democrats would get a large win in the Midterms and their candidate for 2012 - probably Hilary Clinton - would win in a landslide.
Paul would probably make an effort to pass a budget that dramatically eliminated the deficit and to re-establish the gold standard. In the face of huge criticism from the economics community, congress would oppose such a budget, and our political system would descend into even worse acrimony than under Obama. The Republican party would probably be torn apart, as the internal defenders of the military, Israel and social security blasted the unfair way Paul came to be president.
We would probably see huge popular discontent, with large-scale protests and possibly riots against the president, possibly leading to a lot of racial animosity. The Democrats would get a large win in the Midterms and their candidate for 2012 - probably Hilary Clinton - would win in a landslide.
Well the economic bits of that scenario just gave me heartburn, speaking as someone who reported on the original CF as it happened.
d32123
Banned
On the contrary I think that Ron Paul being able to actually win the Republican nomination would help fuel the meme.
Nazi Space Spy
Banned
Keep in mind, Hoover and Coolidge did not stop the pro free market movement in the GOP, though New Dealers like Landon and Dewey did dominate for a while in the aftermath.
After Operation Sealion succeeded, the Nazi's ruled the eastern half of the United States while the Japanese ruled the Western half. In 2000, Alien Space Bats came down from the skies, freeing the world from facism. Then in 2008, Ron Paul was elected president.
OK, in all seriousness, you need to better lay the groundwork for how he gets there. Presidential power fluctuates wildly depending on circumstance. Is it a big victory over Obama? Does Congress wide the same wave as Paul or is it the same congress? For example, the current congress would never pass one of his budgets and he would veto congress' so there would be no change. But I would have to believe that whatever wave of momentum that allows Paul to win also changes congress substantially. Short of fleshing that out, it is almost impossible to speculate because you dont know what parameters he is working under.
DTanza
Banned
For the first two years into his term, sure. But after he proves himself a laughable buffoon?
That or the havoc created would put libertarianism right next to communism in the dustbin of history.
Ron Paul becomes Senator from Texas instead of a congressman, giving him more political capitol to run for the presidency. The irregularity of his voting record allows him to campaign as an anti-Bush and appeal to the anti-war conservatives as well as the libertarians. He and McCain are pretty quickly the only candidates, but Paul beats him in the primaries by characterizing McCain as a false conservative and a warmonger, while touting his own experience, conservative values and anti-war platform. By the RNC, there's not really much that can be done to stop him from winning short of causing a delegate mutiny.
Not terribly plausible but it's something.
Not terribly plausible but it's something.
Grand Admiral Thrawn
Donor
I wonder how compromising Ron Paul is. It is easier to stay pure on the sidelines, but leading in politics requires compromises. Of course, if he doesn't, I bet Congress will override his vetoes to pass some stimulus (less than OTL), and no idea on the auto bailouts... guessing something like TARP (passed on second vote). So I guess something like 15-18% unemployment, and the Fed pumping more money.
He isn't, for him the most important thing is being ideologically pure. Damn everything else. We probably are going to have a Andrew Johnson case here, where Congress fights off the President and leeches away power from him. If the 2010 midterms are really good for the Democrats, then expect Speaker Pelosi and Senate Majority Leader Reid to be the ones truly in power.
Orville_third
Banned
PoD 1:
Ron Paul runs on the Libertarian ticket, with Bob Barr as his running mate, and war as the prime issue.
PoD 2:
Cheney and allies carry the day, and US bombs the Roki Tunnel to keep Russian forces from entering South Ossetia quicker.
PoD 3:
Texas elections officials decide to abide by state election law, and deny the tickets of Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin ballot acces, as they both failed to meet the deadline.
As OTL most US politicians of the three major parties (Democratic, Republican and Connecticut for Lieberman) repeat the line that Russia is the aggressor. Obama is under fire for his remarks calling for "both sides" to show restraint. Politicians rally around the Bush administration- with the exceptions of antiwar Democrats (including Kucinich, Feingold, Waters and Rush) and certain Republicans (notably Walter Jones and Dana Rohrbacher). The shifts in endorsements make national news. As the US strikes Russia, the Paul campaign points out that Georgia broke the ceasefire and pledges to stop the war. While the media follows the political lines, they can't deny their original reports. Paul is denied access to the first debate, which is surrounded by protestors. He's granted access to the second debate, which is ruled as a tie by the media- but not by online polls. Paul and his allies work feverishly to get undecided voters, new voters, disgruntled voters out. He narrowly prevails.
Incidentally, while much of the Paul Presidency has been reversed, his foreign policy has proven to be very popular, not merely in the US but overseas. Prime Minister Davis of the UK's revolt against Then-PM Cameron over the Libya bombing was said to be inspired by Paul. And, while PM Layton of Canada compared then-PM Harper to Paul, he was convinced that NATO withdrawal was a good thing by Paul's withdrawing the US from NATO. Russia and the US have never been closer. One side effect of President Paul's sending ambassadors to the ROC was a reduction in business with the PRC- leading to an increase in American jobs. Finally, his recognition of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Somaliland, Western Sahara and Palestine helped integrate those nations into the rest of the world- and benefited Kosovo too. (To be fair, much of Europe has a lower opinion of the US- though more for its domestic policies. (The UK and Spain aren't fond of certain comments in favor of recognition should certain regions declare independence.)) The Gulf states are not big fans of Ron Paul, though the new transitional government of Egypt is. Pakistan is very much upset at being listed as a state sponsor of terrorism. Georgia and Israel still appear to be bitter. The PRC is still upset.
Ron Paul runs on the Libertarian ticket, with Bob Barr as his running mate, and war as the prime issue.
PoD 2:
Cheney and allies carry the day, and US bombs the Roki Tunnel to keep Russian forces from entering South Ossetia quicker.
PoD 3:
Texas elections officials decide to abide by state election law, and deny the tickets of Obama-Biden and McCain-Palin ballot acces, as they both failed to meet the deadline.
As OTL most US politicians of the three major parties (Democratic, Republican and Connecticut for Lieberman) repeat the line that Russia is the aggressor. Obama is under fire for his remarks calling for "both sides" to show restraint. Politicians rally around the Bush administration- with the exceptions of antiwar Democrats (including Kucinich, Feingold, Waters and Rush) and certain Republicans (notably Walter Jones and Dana Rohrbacher). The shifts in endorsements make national news. As the US strikes Russia, the Paul campaign points out that Georgia broke the ceasefire and pledges to stop the war. While the media follows the political lines, they can't deny their original reports. Paul is denied access to the first debate, which is surrounded by protestors. He's granted access to the second debate, which is ruled as a tie by the media- but not by online polls. Paul and his allies work feverishly to get undecided voters, new voters, disgruntled voters out. He narrowly prevails.
Incidentally, while much of the Paul Presidency has been reversed, his foreign policy has proven to be very popular, not merely in the US but overseas. Prime Minister Davis of the UK's revolt against Then-PM Cameron over the Libya bombing was said to be inspired by Paul. And, while PM Layton of Canada compared then-PM Harper to Paul, he was convinced that NATO withdrawal was a good thing by Paul's withdrawing the US from NATO. Russia and the US have never been closer. One side effect of President Paul's sending ambassadors to the ROC was a reduction in business with the PRC- leading to an increase in American jobs. Finally, his recognition of South Ossetia, Abkhazia, Somaliland, Western Sahara and Palestine helped integrate those nations into the rest of the world- and benefited Kosovo too. (To be fair, much of Europe has a lower opinion of the US- though more for its domestic policies. (The UK and Spain aren't fond of certain comments in favor of recognition should certain regions declare independence.)) The Gulf states are not big fans of Ron Paul, though the new transitional government of Egypt is. Pakistan is very much upset at being listed as a state sponsor of terrorism. Georgia and Israel still appear to be bitter. The PRC is still upset.