Just subscribed. I have found this timeline very interesting so far. What about Italy? With the Cold War in full swing, there wouldn't have been any Tangentopoli scandal and so the Pentapartito would have most likely remained in power, but then what?
Romanov Ascendant: What if the Soviet Union survived?
- Thread starter Justinian
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a still find it ironically funny that someone named romanov has revitalized the USSR.
Also will the USSR take a PRC like councillatory stance to the royals and aristocrats in the future? OTL the Deng Reforms succeeded also partially because the aristocrats threw their massive money into it stimulating the early reforms. It would be easier for the ussr to transition to market socialism or state capitalism with them.
Also will the USSR take a PRC like councillatory stance to the royals and aristocrats in the future? OTL the Deng Reforms succeeded also partially because the aristocrats threw their massive money into it stimulating the early reforms. It would be easier for the ussr to transition to market socialism or state capitalism with them.
I don't think that will be necessary with the automation stuff working out. In any case Deng's reforms to develop the 'productive forces' would not really work out in the USSR where you already have a well developed industry. I think it would be more useful for the Soviets to redirect resources from the military to the civilian economy and start making half decent consumer goods that could be exported. One Deng reform that I could see the USSR adopting ITTL is a professionalization of the military and have it no longer rely on conscription. That would free up a lot of manpower and resources as well as easing the pressure on the population.
What royals? All successors to Tsar Nicholas were killed during the Russian Civil War, and it's not like the descendants of some Russian duke or whatever who fled in 1918 are going to be that influential in 1995.
If there is going to to be any reform and transition to markets then it will be market socialism. With cooperatives competing with already established state industry. Personally with how the USSR is developing and it avoiding its car fire fate will result in a shift that socialist systems do work in the eyes of the world. If there is any crisis or economic meltdown that forces reform onto the union then it will be likely limited to market socialism. Trying to convince total shift to capitalism or mixed economies would be difficult if not unnecessary to push that far. A natural market would be enough.
Though as the enemies I would be slightly sweating if the USSR made such a transition, as it would provide the soviet economy the one thing it desperately needs most, Flexibility. If it has it then America's ascension to unrivalled top dog may just be gone with the wind. Though will certainly say it changes the global dynamic of the rise of China. As China now doesn't just have one but two established superpowers to contend with, especially as one of them is literally on top of China and breathing down its neck. Personally this may mean China may just pull some restraint on a lot of otl worst excesses and nasty acts. Especially as I doubt that this USSR will be as accommodating as otl U.S. so that would
Though as the enemies I would be slightly sweating if the USSR made such a transition, as it would provide the soviet economy the one thing it desperately needs most, Flexibility. If it has it then America's ascension to unrivalled top dog may just be gone with the wind. Though will certainly say it changes the global dynamic of the rise of China. As China now doesn't just have one but two established superpowers to contend with, especially as one of them is literally on top of China and breathing down its neck. Personally this may mean China may just pull some restraint on a lot of otl worst excesses and nasty acts. Especially as I doubt that this USSR will be as accommodating as otl U.S. so that would
The US has one thing going for it that the USSR doesn't have, higher population growth rates.
True very true however, I do believe the population decline among Russians have been slightly butterflied could be wrong however. Either America will certainly still have that benefit agreed
Can't Romanov implement a reverse one-child policy?
The childless tax was in vigor since Stalin, maybe he could strengthen the tax and implement further measures?
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Before the fall of the USSR the US still had a higher birthrate then the USSR, as well as much higher immigration rates. The population desperity won't be as large as IOTL, but it will still be their and the US sill still be growing faster the the USSR.
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There was no one child policy in the Soviet Union to reverse or do you mean they should promote having multiple children per family by "reverse one child"?
Well that was the case only in the final years of the USSR OTL otherwise the Soviets had a slightly faster growth rate than the US throughout the Cold War. I believe that Romanov's economic policies has not resulted in that trend reversing and the Soviets are still growing
That's difficult to achieve as to do that you need to understand consumer requirements and I doubt that will happen soon unless a consumer based economy takes shape. I think newer car designs maybe licensed from the West. Instead of proper cars getting cars in a good timespan rather than the atrocious 9 years wait OTL would be a godsent.
This. They already had natalist policies, but maybe they could deepen them.
Why not both. Japanese and Korean cars are vastly more acceptable to the soviet regime than Western ones, and their production techniques are way more interesting. Until the rise of the Internet, I actually would rather look east then west for innovation and tech. I applaud the USAs ability to take it back, but I should stop here not the break the board rules.
TLDR; I don't think you'd need an ASB to check out Japan as a source of innovation over USA
Justinian
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I think the 9/11 attack could easily happen, if some other version of it. Osama Bin Laden and others like him were still radicalized and there is still a core contingent of Islamist political groups. I'd argue that there would be growing fatigue with continuing the struggle in Afghanistan due to near constant and consistent military failure and high casualty rates. Instead the increased instability would make Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Somalia prime targets for islamism and their terrorist organizations
Not really, the Soviets generally maintained a rate 2.4 children (In 1985) per married couple, assuming that the pro natalist policies of the government combined with the stronger economic growth would probably raise that to 2.5 or 2.7 or maintain it at it's level. It would never fall to the level seen in the 1990s that was caused as a result of the catastrophic social, economic and political chaos (which killed millions) by Gorbachev. I would think that once computer technology matures in the late 90's, soviet exports as mentioned by some in the thread, of cars and other goods may result in an economic and baby boom, spurred by increased housing construction, better healthcare and more educational opportunities, especially as the price of oil continues to hit a high mark in late 94/early 95. When it crashes in late 95, it'll cause economic dislocation and problems for Romanov, but he would also possess the ability to coerce, cajole and threaten within OPEC.
The Soviets don't really get the benefit of immigration except to a very very limited degree, some westerners bribed or ideologically compromised; others scientific experts in their fields offered "wealthy" lifestyles. The US white birthrate was falling to 1.77 by 1989, but a consistently high birth rate in it's minority populations.
Overall the Soviets would be set to break the 300'000'000 million mark sooner than the US, probably by 2001 to 2003.
As Justinian said the fertility rate can be increased to about 2.7 and the greatest increase can take place among the people of the Trans Caucasian and the Central Asian Republics an the ethnic minorities in the Russian SFSR and by today Russians may not be the absolute majority of the population and be around 48% of the total population by newer policies. But if we even get a population growth similar to the US we reach ~375 million people with further increase in growth we reach 390 or maybe even 400 million by 2020.
I gues the Soviets will cross the 300 million mark by 2001 and the US will receive fewer immigrants I guess ITTL as the surge from 624 thousand people per year in the 80s to 977 thousand people per year may be slower with President Ross Perot and the new geopolitical situation with no NAFTA and if the US loses 3 million immigrants per decade then they would cross the 300 million mark post 2010 maybe 2012 or 2013.
Yes one can obviously turn to Japan for cars. The Suzuki Alto and Suzuki Cultus would make for better cars and give the buyers a choice. The Cultus can retain the 9000 Ruble price tag of the Lada and the Alto can go for about 5000 Rubles. A larger car can be the TATA Estate maybe for 16000 Rubles of instead of that a new variant of the GAZ Volga with different chassis options can be made for a bit higher price. The Zil limousine must be updated for the
Scaling up production numbers hit a problem that is consumer products have little utility to the economy in which money isn't the measure all the time and there has to be shift to a more money based consumption driven economy. And for waiting time we need to remember that buying a car was a large investment in the Soviet Union as the standard Lada or "Zhiguli" costed 9000 Rubles whereas the average income ranged from 1500-3000 Rubles depending on the job. The ZiL-4102 can be the new executive car while the latest Chaika can be the one for the mid to high rank Nomenklatura. The Lada 110/VAZ-2110 can take place of the Cultus if developed in OTL timespan.
Before increasing the production a issue that needs to be addressed is that there were very limited garage spaces provided in apartment buildings OTL after the collapse of the USSR car ownership exploded and suddenly people had nowhere to park their cars. Garage complexes and new apartment buildings with more garages should solve that problem.
And could you please tell me the full form of TLDR that you used in the last line?
Well let them have a car first, then one might think about racing them and then Formula one in a classic capitalist wastage (I don't mean the game is a wastage but it's advantages will have no beneficial consequences in USSR).
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Improvements that can be made to the Soviet Union include easing the freedom of movement so as to allow people to visit where they want.
If there has to be some sort of transition to be made to capitalism then a good start would be to privatize the tourism industry and allow micro businesses like small farms, cleaning agencies, restaurants, car rentals to operate, followed by allowing private participation in small scale industries and allowing them to grow to medium industries and foreign investment in a limited manner, maybe 49% or even 33% or 26%, (a lower value at 24% or less won't attract investment I guess) can be allowed to gather expertise and hopefully businessmen don't meet the fate of Artyom Tarasov OTL. The State Transportation network also need to adapt itself for the free market.
The main problem is that Gosplan cannot account well enough for the needs of the people which are dynamic in their five year plans so unless they are ready to transition to some degree of free market capitalism the most they can do is to eliminate the lines at the shops, which will also be in the face of opposition requesting investment in free market.
Very good timeline so far! What's up with Muammar Gaddafi and with the Libyan nuclear program?
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