Roman Restoration

[burgoynewulfe]

Given that Emperor Justinian's dreams of "renovatio imperii", the restoration of the Roman Empire, died with him, what factors could have led to his empire surviving his death? From the reading I've done ive come to the conclusion that:

1: The plague of Justinian cannot happen.
2: Maurice cannot succeed Justinian
3: The Arian Goths have to accept Eastern Christianity.

So, what factors could have led to these events happening or what else needs to happen for renovatio imperii to happen??

 

[B-29_Bomber]

1: The plague of Justinian cannot happen.
2: Maurice cannot succeed Justinian
3: The Arian Goths have to accept Eastern Christianity.

1) That's deemed as a Biological/Geological PoD and therefore belongs in the ASB forum.

2) That's OTL. Maurice succeeded Tiberius II. Besides, arguably he wasn't a bad emperor.

3) This requires a 4th Century PoD.

Besides, it really isn't that hard. Just make the reconquest of Italy go easier and faster. That'd make Italy less devastated and easy pickings for the Lombards.

 

[Earth Judicar]

Reconquering Gaul would be the hard part.

Though I suppose without the plague, and with Italy and Spain the resources will exist for it.

Britain to me doesn't seem worth it.

And I'm not sure but I want to say the barbarian migrations have stabilized or will soon.

So maybe if everything goes well for the Byzantines in the fifth century reconquering most of the empire could occur by the end of the sixth century.

Unfortunately the Byzantines never had such luck.

 

[Fabius Maximus]

1) That's deemed as a Biological/Geological PoD and therefore belongs in the ASB forum.

We've had discussions on the topic in this forum before.

 

[Basilisk]

1) That's deemed as a Biological/Geological PoD and therefore belongs in the ASB forum.

Is this really an ASB PoD? Plagues can be prevented by a single ship sinking or a rat being eaten...

 

[Avalon]

That's deemed as a Biological/Geological PoD and therefore belongs in the ASB forum.

Biological disease and plagues require humans to spread them. Have someone cough a different way or die earlier or later then you get a different outcome. Granted such would be best with a POD of at least 30-100 years, not 5.

 

[Meshakhad]

Another possibility: the Byzantine Empire's decline is arrested at some point in the Middle Ages, and eventually they become strong enough to conquer Italy under some Byzantine Napoleon or Bismarck. I have this image of an Iwo Jima moment where modern Roman soldiers (as the Byzantines would call themselves) raise an old-style SPQR standard over the Pantheon, and someone cries out "SENATUS POPULUS QUE ROMANUM!"

 

[Earth Judicar]

Another possibility: the Byzantine Empire's decline is arrested at some point in the Middle Ages, and eventually they become strong enough to conquer Italy under some Byzantine Napoleon or Bismarck. I have this image of an Iwo Jima moment where modern Roman soldiers (as the Byzantines would call themselves) raise an old-style SPQR standard over the Pantheon, and someone cries out "SENATUS POPULUS QUE ROMANUM!"

I dream of the emperor on his horse and purple colors riding into Rome. With cheers of Roma Eterna! Every other weekend.

 

[Magnum]

Another possibility: the Byzantine Empire's decline is arrested at some point in the Middle Ages, and eventually they become strong enough to conquer Italy under some Byzantine Napoleon or Bismarck. I have this image of an Iwo Jima moment where modern Roman soldiers (as the Byzantines would call themselves) raise an old-style SPQR standard over the Pantheon, and someone cries out "SENATUS POPULUS QUE ROMANUM!"

It would probably be some rando on the internet shouting that, as those soldiers in question would be most likely raising the flag of the Basileus, containing Greek and not Latin letters, and espousing a belief in a monarchical system that would have made classical Romans throw up in disgust.

 

[trajen777]

I think you have several options (the plague was devastating) so you need to have the following occur (basically a quick conquest of Italy pre plague which is possible)
First :
1. Justinian wanted conquests up to defensible borders (Treadwell ) ie: Italy to the Alps, Spain up to the Pyren. , Africa to the desert.
2. Justinian wanted to keep the budget in balance (did an excellent job)
3. Justinian mis-understood that their was a time frame till the conquests could be self supporting (big mistake)

So to give a better chance you would need :
1. Conquest of North Africa happens 533 - 534
2. Delay construction of Hagia Sophia (est that if this was completed after the Italian conquest you would have Belisaurus with a force of up to 30,000)
3. Keep some of the captured $$ from the Vandals treasury to support the troops in N Africa so no rebellion by troops (So Bel stays in Italy in 536)
4. Bel with 30,000 troops (mercs etc) does not have defend Rome in 537 - 8 but wins a battle vs the Goths (he did repeatedly in open battle with a much smaller force of 7,000 vs 25 - 30,000 Goths)
5. With the open field victory in 536 he would capture Ravana (capital of the Goths and their king) in 537 vs 540.
6. Then mopping up operations in 537 - 541 and troops (he had a much stronger force now)
7. In 541 Bel recalled to fight the Persians -- however he leaves a non war ravaged and prosperous Italy (leave 20 % of Goth Treasury to support the new province )
8. Plague hits in 541 / 542 but you can take the hit with a restored Italy.
9. With the extra resources you have the ability to send 17,000 + troops vs 5,000 to Spain and instead of conquering 1/3 of Spain you end up with all of it

So you have a non devasted Italy, Spain, and North Africa. You are in great financial shape (build Hagia Sophia in 545) and can support far larger forces to defend the East. Now you have Gaul and England to consider. I think you need a long stabilization time before you attempt this

 

[Meshakhad]

It would probably be some rando on the internet shouting that, as those soldiers in question would be most likely raising the flag of the Basileus, containing Greek and not Latin letters, and espousing a belief in a monarchical system that would have made classical Romans throw up in disgust.

For that sort of photo op, they might bust out a replica standard. Or, see below for an alternative scenario.

I dream of the emperor on his horse and purple colors riding into Rome. With cheers of Roma Eterna! Every other weekend.

Of course, the formal triumph would probably have to wait until the damage is repaired. It wouldn't do for the emperor's horse to trip on a bomb crater.

I'm actually planning something like this in To A Place You Do Not Know, with the restoration happening in the 1800s... but with a twist. There won't be a scene of the emperor riding into the liberated Rome - and yes, it was a liberation, the people of Italy found Roman rule much more appealing than the Empire of the Reborn (aka those Spanish bastards). Because there won't be an emperor.

See, in my timeline, the Byzantines held on to the Balkans, and managed to build a cohesive "Roman" identity that incorporated all their subjects. Sure, some are Greeks, some are Serbs, some are Bulgars, but so what? Some Greeks are from Attica, some are from Epirus, but they're all still Greek. However, the notion of loyalty to the empire rather than the emperor backfired after a string of incompetent emperors, which led the Senate to overthrow the emperor and bring back the Roman Republic.

 

[A Most Sovereign Lady]

Or you could just make the Gothic War suck less.

 

[Alcsentre Calanice]

I always said that to be successful, Justinian's restoration has to be more modest. Taking back Africa and maybe Sicily is beneficial to the Empire and should be done. But why bother with Italy? It's hard to conquer, holding it against the Lombards is painful and it isn't that rewarding. This is even more true for Spain, which won't be profitable for a rather long period of time. Justinian could just as well ruled Italy indirectly, which a client king or something like this.

 

[trajen777]

I always said that to be successful, Justinian's restoration has to be more modest. Taking back Africa and maybe Sicily is beneficial to the Empire and should be done. But why bother with Italy? It's hard to conquer, holding it against the Lombard's is painful and it isn't that rewarding. This is even more true for Spain, which won't be profitable for a rather long period of time. Justinian could just as well ruled Italy indirectly, which a client king or something like this.

Well if their had not been the Plague then it would have been a good conquest. Or if the initial outlay of troops had been sufficient. The Lombard's had always been allies of the Byz and it there were no intrusions into Italy by the Lombard's (they actually supplied a good sized contingent for the Byz) during Justinian rule. It was only after when the Lombard's allied with the Avars destroyed the Gepids (traditional enemy of the Byz and the Lombard's) that the Lombard's invaded Italy (they realized at this time that the Avars had grown to strong). If Justinian's successor had switched his support and kept the Lombards neutral most like the Lombards would not have been forced to migrate to Italy. So if no Plague, or Justinian had held off building the Hagia Sophia (more troops for Italy), and Bel had had more troops they would have had a very profitable province to support a stronger military in the east.

His plan was solid. Peace in the east while he conquered the west. Alliances in the north with Lombard's to keep Gepids in control, as well as massive fortification in the Balkans. Treaty with the traditional friendly Franks. Italy in unrest with the Goths (the queen of the Goths was in negotiation to turn over all of Italy to the Byz) would lead to a victory up to the defensible Alps. Conquer the Vandals, with a good desert border in the south. Use these very profitable provinces to support a stronger military in the east. Then develop the military and economy. Good plan what hurt it was :
1. Plague
2. Italy was understaffed and the the Plague was devastating (this devastated Italy)
3. His successor allowed the Avars to become to strong so the Lombard's migrated
4. His successor focused for two long on the wasteful things and squandered funds

 

[Fabius Maximus]

Good plan what hurt it was :
1. Plague
2. Italy was understaffed and the the Plague was devastating (this devastated Italy)
3. His successor allowed the Avars to become to strong so the Lombard's migrated
4. His successor focused for two long on the wasteful things and squandered funds

Also 5. The governor Justinian sent to Italy after the fall of Ravenna ended up alienating loads of people, causing the Gothic War to flare up in a big way and turning what should have been a mopping-up operation into a decade of highly destructive and wide-ranging conflict.

 

[Thomas1195]

7. In 541 Bel recalled to fight the Persians -- however he leaves a non war ravaged and prosperous Italy (leave 20 % of Goth Treasury to support the new province )

Sending Narses to the East would make things very nasty for the Persians.

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Also 5. The governor Justinian sent to Italy after the fall of Ravenna ended up alienating loads of people, causing the Gothic War to flare up in a big way and turning what should have been a mopping-up operation into a decade of highly destructive and wide-ranging conflict.

Whilst sending back Belisarius may be a risk, Justinian could do worse than get a number of Pro-Roman Goths and Italian Romans and choosing one of them to govern Italy, backed by Narses with an army.

Meanwhile Belisarius is given another army, and also allowed to recruit Goths and Romans into it, as a force to continue the reconquest. If they wait out the Plague in Italy and then invade the Visigoths when they're being hit by it, that could offset a huge number of problems, by taking cities, and doing a bit of a Genghis. "Join without fighting, or we'll take everyone in this city as slaves".

Scary it may be, but with Belisarius still potentially being seen as an honest man, and "talk" of the Romans desperate for labour out east, and an example or two, Spain could potentially fall into Roman hands, and rebuild the Roman economy in the east (via importing quite a number of slaves). Heck you could use the same tactic to either have people join as slaves, or join as soldiers. Submit, and provide supplies and men. Resist, and everyone is a slave.

If it works, that'd lead to quite a large army and support network in Spain, that can be redirected at Gaul if needs be. At which point Justinian can probably repeat Italy and establish locals as rulers, with Belisarius as the real power. He is far enough away to avoid a civil war, but in exactly the right place to take advantage of Frankish issues - and so is Narses. They'll likely keep each other in check. Both possibly becoming Exarchs is that is the way the Empire goes ITTL.

 

[trajen777]

Sending Narses to the East would make things very nasty for the Persians.

Yes that would also be excellent -- send Narses east then keep Bel west to consolidate Italy, N Africa, Build large fortifications in the north and lead Spanish invasion. Have him look at Gaul. Although with a strong defense and allies (with a strong Bzy forces to make sure they stayed allies) in the Lombard's and the Franks im not so sure if you would invade here. I think a supported invasion from Ethiopia over into Yemen to get control of the trade route to India would have made more sense. You have to remember at this time Silk was becoming a major (the major?) source of revenue in addition to the hearth tax. If you do this route then you would also gain other advantages :
1. Cutting Persia out of the silk / spice trade (cutting their revenues while enhancing the Byz)
2. with strng defense and revenue from the West (and secure borders) i think you would look to gain the east trade to increase the revenue

 

[RogueTraderEnthusiast]

Yes that would also be excellent -- send Narses east then keep Bel west to consolidate Italy, N Africa, Build large fortifications in the north and lead Spanish invasion. Have him look at Gaul. Although with a strong defense and allies (with a strong Bzy forces to make sure they stayed allies) in the Lombard's and the Franks im not so sure if you would invade here. I think a supported invasion from Ethiopia over into Yemen to get control of the trade route to India would have made more sense. You have to remember at this time Silk was becoming a major (the major?) source of revenue in addition to the hearth tax. If you do this route then you would also gain other advantages :
1. Cutting Persia out of the silk / spice trade (cutting their revenues while enhancing the Byz)
2. with strng defense and revenue from the West (and secure borders) i think you would look to gain the east trade to increase the revenue

Justinian managed to get silkworms smuggled over. That does more to cut the exports east than anything else. The reality is that the Romans would do well to develop a sort of 'industrial espionage' department to find out all the secrets, and develop them in the Roman Empire. It would make the Roman Empire wealthier, more technologically advanced in many areas, AND almost collapse the Persian economy. The amount of trade to Rome that Persia enabled was huge. Cut them out of the picture with a Roman Empire and you could send it into freefall.

 

[Thomas1195]

massive fortification in the Balkans

These fortresses did not prevent the Avars and Bulgars and later Croats to take a large swath if not most of the northern area of Balkan (Byzantine only held the coastal regions). Fortifications should be more effective against barbaric hordes. I ask this question because castles and siege warfare were normally very nasty for the attackers in Medieval Western Europe, even for those who afford to have a specialist siege team, until the invention of gunpowder. Maybe they only concentrated around Constantinople and Thrace.