Revolutionary Nicaragua makes alliances with Non-Aligned Powers

[Oba]

WI the FSLN during the Nicaraguan Revolution made more alliances with other countries in the Non-Aligned Movement, so as to be able to stop the Contras and resist foreign intervention?

My thoughts:

It seems unlikely that the PRC or the USSR would support the Sandinistas, given that Mao's death and other factors had already began to lead to a major shift away from revolutionary Maoism and towards the economic liberalization and state capitalism in the former while the USSR was already declining, stagnant and hard-line orthodox.

So, what about other countries in the Non-Aligned Movement that were ideologically more like Nicaragua? Besides OTL crucial Cuba, the SFR Yugoslavia, contemporary Tanzania (with its Ujamaa ideology) and Vietnam seem particularly compatible, while other Latin American countries surely had strong sympathies with the Nicaraguan struggle against US foreign intervention.

Any other opinions or ideas are much appreciated

 

[overoceans]

According to the link below, Sandinista Nicaragua WAS a member of the Non-aligned movement in OTL.

http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/gia_facpub/75/

So I'm wondering how you think the alternative history would differ from what took place in real life. Are you envisioning more ecconomic/military support to the Sandinistas?

 

[Oba]

According to the link below, Sandinista Nicaragua WAS a member of the Non-aligned movement in OTL.

http://scholarcommons.usf.edu/gia_facpub/75/

So I'm wondering how you think the alternative history would differ from what took place in real life. Are you envisioning more ecconomic/military support to the Sandinistas?

Oh, sorry for the ambiguity .

Basically, yes, I did mean more economic and military support to the FSLN; direct and official support/aid from some intergovernmental organization, either OTL or ATL; or, perhaps a set of formal agreements with friendly foreign governments (such as the ones I suggested in the OP, potentially and among others) that would provide a similar level of support to Nicaragua. The support I am talking about would have to at least have a strong, real/effective and effective economic component, maybe somewhat like OTL historical COMECON or OTL contemporary ALBA? A direct and serious military alliance would be ideal, but even just supplying modern weapons systems to Nicaragua would be a big help IMHO; here, ground-based anti-aircraft weapons systems, anti-ship missiles and ground-based early warning systems seem to be the most logical and realistic, given their comparatively higher cost-effectiveness, greater reliability, relative ease of operation and easier obtainability in comparison to combat aircraft, warships, long-range missiles or airborne early warning systems, for example.

 

[Oba]

I apologize to bump this thread up with so little content, but with that said, I do believe that 20th century Latin America is a surprisingly neglected area in alternate history.

So, thanks to overoceans for her/his interest

 

[Oba]

Okay then, WI Revolutionary Nicaragua gets not only the necessary economic and military alliances and military supplies, the latter of the type I mentioned before, outright crushes the Contras and succeeds in stabilizing the country to the extent that it makes covert US efforts to undermine its sovereignty infeasible? Would the US then back down; if not, what would it do? I would hope the United States would not be foolish enough to start an full-on war with Nicaragua - and its allies...

 

[Dan1988]

If Proyecto Islero was going ahead full steam and Adolfo Suarez's hopes for a non-aligned Spain would be realized, it would therefore be funny if Spain allied with Nicaragua. Awkward, yes, but also funny particularly if their interests coincide.

 

[Plumber]

The whole Monroe Doctrine makes it unlikely anyone could really help besides the Cubans, who were already in Angola.

 

[Corbell Mark IV]

The USSR did support the Sandinistas.



http://www.nytimes.com/1988/02/06/w...t-a-death-blow.html?sec=&spon=&pagewanted=all

Most of all, the Sandinistas have superior mobility and firepower in the form of 12 heavily armed Russian-made MI-24 attack helicopters, known in the West as Hinds, and 50 MI-17 transport helicopters, known in the West as Hips, each of which can carry several dozen soldiers. In 1986 the Sandinistas used these helicopters with devastating effect against the contras. Sandinista patrols on foot and in helicopter were sent out to find the contras. When they were found, the MI-24 helicopters were sent to attack them from the air, while the transports flew in reinforcements to trap them. Importance of Redeyes

This successful technique came to an end when the United States-supplied Redeyes were put in contra hands. In 1987 the contras damaged or shot down more than a dozen Sandinista helicopters. The Redeye made a strategic difference in favor of the contras. By neutralizing their helicopters, the contras fought the Sandinistas to a stalemate.

 

[overoceans]

Oh, sorry for the ambiguity .

Basically, yes, I did mean more economic and military support to the FSLN; direct and official support/aid from some intergovernmental organization, either OTL or ATL; or, perhaps a set of formal agreements with friendly foreign governments (such as the ones I suggested in the OP, potentially and among others) that would provide a similar level of support to Nicaragua. The support I am talking about would have to at least have a strong, real/effective and effective economic component, maybe somewhat like OTL historical COMECON or OTL contemporary ALBA? A direct and serious military alliance would be ideal, but even just supplying modern weapons systems to Nicaragua would be a big help IMHO; here, ground-based anti-aircraft weapons systems, anti-ship missiles and ground-based early warning systems seem to be the most logical and realistic, given their comparatively higher cost-effectiveness, greater reliability, relative ease of operation and easier obtainability in comparison to combat aircraft, warships, long-range missiles or airborne early warning systems, for example.

I think the answer to your question then depends on what you think motivated US hostility to the Sandinistas.

The official line, propogated by Reagan etc, was that the regime was part of an overall existential threat to the USA. Bascially, Nicaragua was a launching base for Soviet threats against the mainland USA.

If that's really what the Americans thought, then they'd probably be pretty hostile to any foreign powers assisting Nicaragua with economic support, and military support would be out of the question. If Indira Gandhi, for example, was helping the Sandinistas, she'd be about as popular in Washington as Yuri Andropov. Even less so, in fact, since Andropov at least possessed whatever grudging respect comes from being the leader of a superpower.

However, if that scenario were true, then it is highly unlikely that the Non-aligned Nations would back the Sandinistas militarily, since they'd know that the US would respond by treating their organization as a mortal enemy.

If the real reason for US hostility was that the Sandinistas were viewed as a threat to US economic interests(because they nationalized industry and whatnot), then the Americans would probably still be pretty ticked off at the Non-aligneds, but not to the same degree as in the first scenario. You'd probably have the usual sort of right-wing grumbling about "Well, the third-world sure does like to stab Uncle Sam in the back, huh? Buncha commie ingrates", but you've always had that kind of rhetoric anyway.

In this second scenario, Reagan would still have to maintain a public face of outrage against India etc, but at the end of the day, it wouldn't have that much impact on how he treated those countries. Lower level Republicans in the House etc might deliver thundering denunications of the Non-aligneds, but at the end of the day, realpolitik would carry the day.

 

[Dan1988]

The whole Monroe Doctrine makes it unlikely anyone could really help besides the Cubans, who were already in Angola.

In the case of a post-Francoist Spain with Juan Carlos at the helm and Adolfo Suarez more competent than he was in terms of foreign policy, the Monroe Doctrine wouldn't help. After Franco died and Adolfo Suarez became PM, his big thing was the continuation of Spain's quest for a nuclear bomb (Proyecto Islero), which was supposed to be the cornerstone of a new non-aligned foreign policy (which, of course, went awry after the project was dismantled and Spain joined NATO under a PSOE government in OTL). At the same time, Spain during the 1970s was going through a period of economic stagnation, with inflation creeping up (in part because of political uncertainty over what would happen after Franco died). So, with Spain non-aligned in TTL and thus less (semi-pro-)American than it was under Franco, it could be conceivable that Spain would try to "make amends", if we can put it like that, by supporting the Sandinistas - after all, the Somoza regime would smack ordinary Spaniards as being too similar to Franco's regime. Even if it was not in terms of actual protection, Spain would help in other ways - doctors, nurses, teachers (which would be funny if, thanks to Spanish teachers from Spain, the children started picking up the "th" sound from Peninsular Spanish ), economic aid, helping with infrastructure projects, and the like. The economic stagnation had to be broken somehow; if Nicaragua becomes the beginning to Spain's economic recovery, than so be it. (Though it would be both funny and ironic at the same time, IMO.)