Beer
Banned
Hi to All out there! After some input by several members here in the forum, I´m in the process of revising my 1848 TL. So first things first, here come the main PoDs.
PoD 1: The PoD that starts all is that in TTL 1848 the uprisings and Revolutions erupt with more force and become more widespread as the result of some early successes. In several cases the nations stand on shaky legs. Prussia as one nation hit hard by the Revolution sends a delegation to the Paulskirche Parliament with the young Rising Star Bismarck part of it. Bismarck is against the uprising, but after some time in Frankfurt sees the chance to use the Revolutionaries to give Prussia the top position in Germany. He marshals all his influence (he is well connected to the King´s court) to lobby for a Prussian acceptance of a to-be-modified Paulskirche constitution. Prussia thinking seriously about the Paulskirche proposal gives the Revolutionaries all across Europe hope and fresh drive. New revolts pop up or already began ones keep their momentum.
Bismarck succeeds and after some gruesome negotiations on second May 1851 a united Germany is born. Several states close to Austria, despite the public opinion internally pro-Unification, decline to become part of Germany. But the more severe strife created TTL saps more of Austria´s strength and during the rest of 1851 and early 1852 all German states beside Austria join Germany. When Sardinia-Piemont with French help begins her Quest to unify Italy anew, overstretched Austria begins negotiations with Germany about what to do. To win time for negotiations and to stop a French allied Italy emerging, Germany and Austria help Guiseppe Mazzini´s Roman Republic. (OTL the Republic was smashed by the French protection of the Papal state, TTL France has other things on her plate first due to the stronger Revolution) While on the Italian peninsular a Civil War goes on, Austria and Germany try to find a solution for the trouble both nations have. In March 1853 they find it and after some tricky treaties Hungary becomes independent but closely allied to Germany. The Austrian half of the Empire (except Dalmatia and Galizia which become Hungarian, but with Burgenland gained from Hungary) accedes into Germany on the second birthday of the united Nation, creating Großdeutschland (Greater Germany).
In 1857, both sides of the Italian unification war are war weary. France and Germany, who have other more important (for them) matters at hand, begin joint mediating and on New Years Day 1858 Italy is united.
PoD 2: In the 1860ties the growing Power of Germany is met with wariness by some circles in Britain, who want to preserve Britain´s position as THE Great Power at all costs. In 1864 it seems the time for testing Germany is ripe, when the Danish-German war erupts after Denmark tries to absorb Holstein fully. The British Government, under the weak in foreign matters PM Lord Palmerston, in a hipshot action backs the Danes. But the decision soon turns out to be rash and ill-advised. While Germany´s outnumbered small Navy does not even think about doing more than some coast patrolling against the Royal Navy, the British Army, lacking enough preparation time and fighting against the strategic genius of Moltke, march into an unmitigated disaster. At a battle near Flensburg the British-Danish forces experience what TTL historians often call a “Second Waterloo”.
The war is soon over after Flensburg. Bismarck, in his quest for stability in Europe, takes all of Schleswig and Holstein (Germany gives Denmark a small part of North Schleswig back in 1952), but leaves all Danish Colonies in Copenhagen´s hand.
The problem is peace with Britain. Germany never wanted war with Britain in the first place and has no means for bringing her superior land forces to the Isles. The German Navy is no match for the Royal Navy. So a rather tame treaty is a must and even the wish of Berlin, since Germany does not want Britain as a committed foe. On the other hand, the British land campaign was a disaster and resulted in a noticeable Prestige hit. In the “Great Game”, this meant Germany needed some spoils of war to show the world and her populace. Bismarck, as almost always with a feel for the best outcome in foreign matters, wanted Heligoland. Losing it would not hurt Britain in a serious way, while it could be shown as a token of victory and did improve Germany´s strategic position in the North Sea. But the new British Government tried a political play, adding a new chip into the pot. A “chip” called Rupert´s Land. See text below:
Deutsch-Kanada (German Canada): Germany came to her first colony like the proverbial virgin to a child. Some circles in the British Empire, wanting to preserve her position as Great Power Number One no matter the cost, were wary about the German Unifications, but in the turmoil of the revolution years Britain had no chance of intervention. The time for intervention and testing the Unknown seemed to come when the 2. German-Danish War erupted 1864 after Denmark tried to absorb Schleswig and Holstein fully. The decision to back the Danes on short notice and the aftermath was much lamented for decades and the nickname of then Premier Viscount Henry Palmerston, “Lord Firebrand” became a curse in England.
On sea Britain had no problems, the German Navy kept hugging the coast and ports, knowing their chances in open battle against the far more numerous Royal Navy. On land however, the British army, thrown into the fight with too much haste and after a string of mistakes in the gathering, experienced the most severe loss of the 19th. Century. The scale of the disaster at Flensburg surprised even the commanding German Generals von Moltke and von Wrangel, who beat the british-danish forces most masterfully. Many historians speak of this battle as the “Second or British Waterloo”. The fighting ended soon after, only some small skirmishes were fought until armistice.
In the case of Denmark the proceedings were fast. The Danes lost all of Schleswig and Holstein, they could keep their colonies, but had to accept after the peace negotiations with Great Britain some “rest stops” on Iceland and Greenland for German ships on the Canada route.
At the conference with England the problem was how to proceed. Germany had clearly won on land, but had no way to reach England with enough forces, so a negotiated and rather tame peace was a must. On the other hand Britain had lost the land war so miserably a white peace was not in the cards, the public would not allow it and too much Prestige was lost at Flensburg. Bismarck did not want to make Britain a committed enemy, but after such victory he needed some tokens for the public and the other Great Powers to show. Both sides knew it would be a pain to find a solution the 2 nations could live with.
[FONT="]It was one of those sentences only having impact at a special specific time in history, which brought Rupert´s Land into the “haggling”. Britain, in the hope that Germany would soon tire of this “conquest” and would be able to get it back from the “Jerries”, literally pushed the undeveloped, far away region into Germany´s lap. London would give Heligoland, which Bismarck wanted as a showcase and Britain could live without, only if Germany took Rupert´s Land too. It would be a political gamble and a cheap way to peace for Britain. The new British Government, after the Flensburg debacle Lord Palmerston was history, wanted to get back as much international standing as possible. They admired Bismarck´s deft proposal. Losing Heligoland would not hurt Britain in ways that mattered and Bismarck got the token he needed without creating bad blood. Adding Rupert´s Land in out of own volition, Britain would score points everywhere for her Magnanimity in “defeat”. Despite grandiose looking on paper especially after some embellishment by the British diplomats, Rupert´s Land was basically worthless in it´s present condition. Developing it would be a long, stony road measured in decades, not years. And costly decades at that! The plan was easy; Britain would get lots of prestige for her “sacrifice”, while burdening Germany with a foreign policy stone around her neck. There was even a betting pool established in the British delegation, how long Germany would keep “Rupprechtsland” (the German Name for it) after it became publicly known how undeveloped it was. While the more well-educated in Germany knew this, the public there and in other nations as well were blinded by the British propaganda. Soon the Germans would have a dilemma. Either they kept a grandiose looking, but expensive if one wanted to develop it, Colony or they sold it to someone. Selling it would mean a Prestige loss for Germany and a Prestige gain for Britain, since the Sell would show British superiority at the green table.
[/FONT] Bismarck knew what the British tried to do, but the situation was a mess. According to his biographer, the Chancellor once said during a four eyes talk: “The Brits are a clever bunch. They give us an undeveloped, nearly empty backwater with partly hostile climate and Indians on the other side of the Atlantic, hoping that we tire of it and sell it back to them after some years and get Prestige back for this twice. Once for their supposed magnanimity now and again when we have enough of the wilderness. True, it´s a lot of land and seems to be potentially rich in resources, but we will face a mountain of difficulties. Britain has experience with far away colonies, we do not. So it will come to learning by doing.
I´d like to decline Rupert´s Land, not only because of the problems we get, but because the “Limeys” try to circumvent the lecture for interfering in affairs they should not, by giving us something most of Britain will not miss, while looking good.. It´s their right to try for the least hurting treaty, but I don´t think Britain will learn the lesson if they get away with this.
Unfortunately, I see no choice but to accept. Having Peace is far better than a stalemate war. Britain is no match for us on Land, we can´t hurt them on sea. I don´t want to punish Britain, just a slap on the hand; we don´t need or want to alienate such a potent power. Other proposals might be “better”, but carry the risk in making Britain an enemy. Let London slap it´s own back for being more cunning than us Germans; two can play this game. They might believe Germany is unable to rise to the challenge, but we will never give back what we get now. Even if I have to visit the wilderness every year!”
Bismarck signs, since consolidating Germany in peace is far preferable to an unneeded war. Now Germany has Heligoland, which is a strategic plus and Rupert´s Land, which she did not want. Now what to do? RL is wilderness, there might be rich ressources and farmland, but developing and making it defendable and useful will be extreme costly and it will be the next century before this happens on a major level.
The other option is to sell it to someone. But even if it is not in the open, doing this after the fanfare about RL would mean admitting defeat to the british political play.Some would even see it as admitting being unable to stem the task of developing Canada.
Here comes german/prussian stubbornness in: Doing something 100% or not at all. The German government decides to beat the British in their own game by making Rupert´s Land a success, "even if it kills us". To the consternation of some states, who betted that the Germans would do the more logical thing by selling it.
By the time of the great colonial grab, the "crazy Germans", as they became known, have the first very tender and delicate successes in Canada they can be proud of, but the expense is so great (Hokkaido already produces a small plus, not much, still better than nothing, but that wasn´t cheap either) Germany´s appetite for more colonies went extinct. Only for prestige reasons Germany takes some more colonies. Bits and pieces here and there compared to other colonial powers, several times even exchanging claims, showing the flag, nothing more. The main colonies were RL and Hokkaido. So TTL Germany does not get sucked into great colonial rivalries.
It was truly tough for Germany, especially in the early years of the Colony, but she never sold Rupert´s Land back to Britain or to anyone else. One could even say Germany´s colony in the Americas did much for the development of Air Travel. While the Empire did build a capable Fleet over the next couple of decades out of necessity to defend her colonies, Berlin always wanted to reduce the dependency on the british and american dominated High Seas. So Germany became a leader in the skies first with Zeppelin technology, later airplanes and then striking in the space age.
Today, after wars gone by, deals, treaties and exchanges with the native Indians and the Canadian Federation, the German Empire still holds a large chunk of former Rupert´s Land and some additional parts gotten by several exchange treaties. Unlike in the 19th or the early 20th Century, German Kanada is not a colony any longer, but 5 German “Länder”(States). During Decolonisation German Kanada voted to stay part of Germany. German Kanada´s or Rupprechtsland´s eastern border is a line from Schreiber, around 70 km northeast of Donnersbucht (Thunder Bay) at Lake Superior (Oberer See), north to the meeting point of Winisk River and Hudson Bay. The southern border follows the US border, the western border follows the form of Canadian Federation member British Columbia. In the North, Germany holds the Islands, except Ellismere Isle, which she shares with Denmark since a treaty made in 1952.
PoD 3: While a German Canada needs an event chain like above to be plausible, for this PoD there is OTL precedence. It might surprise some people, but during the 1860ties the East Asia section of the Prussian foreign ministry really pushed for annexing or buying Hokkaido as a colony from Japan! For Bismarck only buying was an option, since he wanted good relations with Japan, which he saw (correctly) as an emerging power, but only after German Unification, which topped every other priority. When Unification was achieved, Japan had begun to settle/develop Hokkaido seriously for the first time in centuries, so the price would have been much higher than some years before at the beginning of the Meji-time. Bismarck, rather reluctant when it came to colonies, was not sad about that development and stopped all advance in that direction so it never came to a German Hokkaido.
TTL Germany is already unified in the 1860ties and had won the Danish-German war, the first real conflict as a unified nation. National Feeling would be high, since that war made Germany a colonial power already, even if the colony in question was close to worthless for decades to come. Most of Bismarck´s OTL objections are not an issue TTL and even a national Hero, as Bismarck is OTL and TTL, sometimes has to keep his ministries happy. In addition, making Hokkaido a profitable colony is far easier than Canada, esp. when you make a deal with Tokio about settlement by Japanese too.
So TTL Bismarck buys Hokkaido in 1867 from Japan, but as a compromise between him and the foreign ministry, the treaty includes provisions about a joint development of the Island by Japan and Germany. Up to a point, at least; Hokkaido will be German after all. A typical Bismarck move. Not only will this foster closer relations with Japan (at this time Japan begins his modernisation, so she will follow Germany´s lead in developing Hokkaido and other areas most of the times), the colonial administration can buy some needed goods in Japan directly, reducing the strain on the merchant fleet. And with Japanese and German colonists, the Island will reach a useful number of citizens faster.
These 3 main PoDs, with all the butterflies coming from them, have a heavy impact on TTL History.
Unified TTL 20 years before OTL and becoming a Großdeutschland/Greater Germany in 1853 will make Germany an industrial and economic powerhouse a lot earlier, but the colonial acquisitions in 1864 and 1867, one out of necessity for a peace treaty, the other due to lobbyism, do not only focus Berlin away from many foreign affairs, concentrating on colonial development, but change the stream of emigrants coming from Europe.
With Germany unified early and rather liberal, a sizeable number of Germans/Austrians who emigrated OTL between 1848-1880 will never move to the New World, their reasons gone. Some will settle in the “new” eastern parts of the Empire, someday tipping the population percentiles there decisively into the Germans favour.
From those whose reasons to emigrate did not change, many will go to Rupert´s Land and Hokkaido, not the US or Brazil to name a few. Unlike OTL, where most of the German colonies had climates, etc. disliked by persons willing to settle somewhere outside Europe, TTL Rupert´s Land (at least a big part of it) and Hokkaido can find favour with many would-be settlers.
Same with Italy. Unified early, in addition there are losses in the Civil War, means a lot of Italians never leaving. This not only changes the composition of the emigrants in many countries (like the US or esp. Argentina where many Italians went to), but the population growth of the immigrant nations too, which will be slower, due to the lower numbers of settlers coming in. Take the US as an example. OTL in 2005 (I don´t have newer numbers) there were around 50 million Americans of German ancestry and around 17 million of Italian ancestry. TTL, we can halve that.
More tomorrow or Saturday. Please comment or add some bits to the TL. It´s meant to be a collaborative effort. As an additional help here are some TTL in 2010 maps:
PoD 1: The PoD that starts all is that in TTL 1848 the uprisings and Revolutions erupt with more force and become more widespread as the result of some early successes. In several cases the nations stand on shaky legs. Prussia as one nation hit hard by the Revolution sends a delegation to the Paulskirche Parliament with the young Rising Star Bismarck part of it. Bismarck is against the uprising, but after some time in Frankfurt sees the chance to use the Revolutionaries to give Prussia the top position in Germany. He marshals all his influence (he is well connected to the King´s court) to lobby for a Prussian acceptance of a to-be-modified Paulskirche constitution. Prussia thinking seriously about the Paulskirche proposal gives the Revolutionaries all across Europe hope and fresh drive. New revolts pop up or already began ones keep their momentum.
Bismarck succeeds and after some gruesome negotiations on second May 1851 a united Germany is born. Several states close to Austria, despite the public opinion internally pro-Unification, decline to become part of Germany. But the more severe strife created TTL saps more of Austria´s strength and during the rest of 1851 and early 1852 all German states beside Austria join Germany. When Sardinia-Piemont with French help begins her Quest to unify Italy anew, overstretched Austria begins negotiations with Germany about what to do. To win time for negotiations and to stop a French allied Italy emerging, Germany and Austria help Guiseppe Mazzini´s Roman Republic. (OTL the Republic was smashed by the French protection of the Papal state, TTL France has other things on her plate first due to the stronger Revolution) While on the Italian peninsular a Civil War goes on, Austria and Germany try to find a solution for the trouble both nations have. In March 1853 they find it and after some tricky treaties Hungary becomes independent but closely allied to Germany. The Austrian half of the Empire (except Dalmatia and Galizia which become Hungarian, but with Burgenland gained from Hungary) accedes into Germany on the second birthday of the united Nation, creating Großdeutschland (Greater Germany).
In 1857, both sides of the Italian unification war are war weary. France and Germany, who have other more important (for them) matters at hand, begin joint mediating and on New Years Day 1858 Italy is united.
PoD 2: In the 1860ties the growing Power of Germany is met with wariness by some circles in Britain, who want to preserve Britain´s position as THE Great Power at all costs. In 1864 it seems the time for testing Germany is ripe, when the Danish-German war erupts after Denmark tries to absorb Holstein fully. The British Government, under the weak in foreign matters PM Lord Palmerston, in a hipshot action backs the Danes. But the decision soon turns out to be rash and ill-advised. While Germany´s outnumbered small Navy does not even think about doing more than some coast patrolling against the Royal Navy, the British Army, lacking enough preparation time and fighting against the strategic genius of Moltke, march into an unmitigated disaster. At a battle near Flensburg the British-Danish forces experience what TTL historians often call a “Second Waterloo”.
The war is soon over after Flensburg. Bismarck, in his quest for stability in Europe, takes all of Schleswig and Holstein (Germany gives Denmark a small part of North Schleswig back in 1952), but leaves all Danish Colonies in Copenhagen´s hand.
The problem is peace with Britain. Germany never wanted war with Britain in the first place and has no means for bringing her superior land forces to the Isles. The German Navy is no match for the Royal Navy. So a rather tame treaty is a must and even the wish of Berlin, since Germany does not want Britain as a committed foe. On the other hand, the British land campaign was a disaster and resulted in a noticeable Prestige hit. In the “Great Game”, this meant Germany needed some spoils of war to show the world and her populace. Bismarck, as almost always with a feel for the best outcome in foreign matters, wanted Heligoland. Losing it would not hurt Britain in a serious way, while it could be shown as a token of victory and did improve Germany´s strategic position in the North Sea. But the new British Government tried a political play, adding a new chip into the pot. A “chip” called Rupert´s Land. See text below:
Deutsch-Kanada (German Canada): Germany came to her first colony like the proverbial virgin to a child. Some circles in the British Empire, wanting to preserve her position as Great Power Number One no matter the cost, were wary about the German Unifications, but in the turmoil of the revolution years Britain had no chance of intervention. The time for intervention and testing the Unknown seemed to come when the 2. German-Danish War erupted 1864 after Denmark tried to absorb Schleswig and Holstein fully. The decision to back the Danes on short notice and the aftermath was much lamented for decades and the nickname of then Premier Viscount Henry Palmerston, “Lord Firebrand” became a curse in England.
On sea Britain had no problems, the German Navy kept hugging the coast and ports, knowing their chances in open battle against the far more numerous Royal Navy. On land however, the British army, thrown into the fight with too much haste and after a string of mistakes in the gathering, experienced the most severe loss of the 19th. Century. The scale of the disaster at Flensburg surprised even the commanding German Generals von Moltke and von Wrangel, who beat the british-danish forces most masterfully. Many historians speak of this battle as the “Second or British Waterloo”. The fighting ended soon after, only some small skirmishes were fought until armistice.
In the case of Denmark the proceedings were fast. The Danes lost all of Schleswig and Holstein, they could keep their colonies, but had to accept after the peace negotiations with Great Britain some “rest stops” on Iceland and Greenland for German ships on the Canada route.
At the conference with England the problem was how to proceed. Germany had clearly won on land, but had no way to reach England with enough forces, so a negotiated and rather tame peace was a must. On the other hand Britain had lost the land war so miserably a white peace was not in the cards, the public would not allow it and too much Prestige was lost at Flensburg. Bismarck did not want to make Britain a committed enemy, but after such victory he needed some tokens for the public and the other Great Powers to show. Both sides knew it would be a pain to find a solution the 2 nations could live with.
[FONT="]It was one of those sentences only having impact at a special specific time in history, which brought Rupert´s Land into the “haggling”. Britain, in the hope that Germany would soon tire of this “conquest” and would be able to get it back from the “Jerries”, literally pushed the undeveloped, far away region into Germany´s lap. London would give Heligoland, which Bismarck wanted as a showcase and Britain could live without, only if Germany took Rupert´s Land too. It would be a political gamble and a cheap way to peace for Britain. The new British Government, after the Flensburg debacle Lord Palmerston was history, wanted to get back as much international standing as possible. They admired Bismarck´s deft proposal. Losing Heligoland would not hurt Britain in ways that mattered and Bismarck got the token he needed without creating bad blood. Adding Rupert´s Land in out of own volition, Britain would score points everywhere for her Magnanimity in “defeat”. Despite grandiose looking on paper especially after some embellishment by the British diplomats, Rupert´s Land was basically worthless in it´s present condition. Developing it would be a long, stony road measured in decades, not years. And costly decades at that! The plan was easy; Britain would get lots of prestige for her “sacrifice”, while burdening Germany with a foreign policy stone around her neck. There was even a betting pool established in the British delegation, how long Germany would keep “Rupprechtsland” (the German Name for it) after it became publicly known how undeveloped it was. While the more well-educated in Germany knew this, the public there and in other nations as well were blinded by the British propaganda. Soon the Germans would have a dilemma. Either they kept a grandiose looking, but expensive if one wanted to develop it, Colony or they sold it to someone. Selling it would mean a Prestige loss for Germany and a Prestige gain for Britain, since the Sell would show British superiority at the green table.
[/FONT] Bismarck knew what the British tried to do, but the situation was a mess. According to his biographer, the Chancellor once said during a four eyes talk: “The Brits are a clever bunch. They give us an undeveloped, nearly empty backwater with partly hostile climate and Indians on the other side of the Atlantic, hoping that we tire of it and sell it back to them after some years and get Prestige back for this twice. Once for their supposed magnanimity now and again when we have enough of the wilderness. True, it´s a lot of land and seems to be potentially rich in resources, but we will face a mountain of difficulties. Britain has experience with far away colonies, we do not. So it will come to learning by doing.
I´d like to decline Rupert´s Land, not only because of the problems we get, but because the “Limeys” try to circumvent the lecture for interfering in affairs they should not, by giving us something most of Britain will not miss, while looking good.. It´s their right to try for the least hurting treaty, but I don´t think Britain will learn the lesson if they get away with this.
Unfortunately, I see no choice but to accept. Having Peace is far better than a stalemate war. Britain is no match for us on Land, we can´t hurt them on sea. I don´t want to punish Britain, just a slap on the hand; we don´t need or want to alienate such a potent power. Other proposals might be “better”, but carry the risk in making Britain an enemy. Let London slap it´s own back for being more cunning than us Germans; two can play this game. They might believe Germany is unable to rise to the challenge, but we will never give back what we get now. Even if I have to visit the wilderness every year!”
Bismarck signs, since consolidating Germany in peace is far preferable to an unneeded war. Now Germany has Heligoland, which is a strategic plus and Rupert´s Land, which she did not want. Now what to do? RL is wilderness, there might be rich ressources and farmland, but developing and making it defendable and useful will be extreme costly and it will be the next century before this happens on a major level.
The other option is to sell it to someone. But even if it is not in the open, doing this after the fanfare about RL would mean admitting defeat to the british political play.Some would even see it as admitting being unable to stem the task of developing Canada.
Here comes german/prussian stubbornness in: Doing something 100% or not at all. The German government decides to beat the British in their own game by making Rupert´s Land a success, "even if it kills us". To the consternation of some states, who betted that the Germans would do the more logical thing by selling it.
By the time of the great colonial grab, the "crazy Germans", as they became known, have the first very tender and delicate successes in Canada they can be proud of, but the expense is so great (Hokkaido already produces a small plus, not much, still better than nothing, but that wasn´t cheap either) Germany´s appetite for more colonies went extinct. Only for prestige reasons Germany takes some more colonies. Bits and pieces here and there compared to other colonial powers, several times even exchanging claims, showing the flag, nothing more. The main colonies were RL and Hokkaido. So TTL Germany does not get sucked into great colonial rivalries.
It was truly tough for Germany, especially in the early years of the Colony, but she never sold Rupert´s Land back to Britain or to anyone else. One could even say Germany´s colony in the Americas did much for the development of Air Travel. While the Empire did build a capable Fleet over the next couple of decades out of necessity to defend her colonies, Berlin always wanted to reduce the dependency on the british and american dominated High Seas. So Germany became a leader in the skies first with Zeppelin technology, later airplanes and then striking in the space age.
Today, after wars gone by, deals, treaties and exchanges with the native Indians and the Canadian Federation, the German Empire still holds a large chunk of former Rupert´s Land and some additional parts gotten by several exchange treaties. Unlike in the 19th or the early 20th Century, German Kanada is not a colony any longer, but 5 German “Länder”(States). During Decolonisation German Kanada voted to stay part of Germany. German Kanada´s or Rupprechtsland´s eastern border is a line from Schreiber, around 70 km northeast of Donnersbucht (Thunder Bay) at Lake Superior (Oberer See), north to the meeting point of Winisk River and Hudson Bay. The southern border follows the US border, the western border follows the form of Canadian Federation member British Columbia. In the North, Germany holds the Islands, except Ellismere Isle, which she shares with Denmark since a treaty made in 1952.
PoD 3: While a German Canada needs an event chain like above to be plausible, for this PoD there is OTL precedence. It might surprise some people, but during the 1860ties the East Asia section of the Prussian foreign ministry really pushed for annexing or buying Hokkaido as a colony from Japan! For Bismarck only buying was an option, since he wanted good relations with Japan, which he saw (correctly) as an emerging power, but only after German Unification, which topped every other priority. When Unification was achieved, Japan had begun to settle/develop Hokkaido seriously for the first time in centuries, so the price would have been much higher than some years before at the beginning of the Meji-time. Bismarck, rather reluctant when it came to colonies, was not sad about that development and stopped all advance in that direction so it never came to a German Hokkaido.
TTL Germany is already unified in the 1860ties and had won the Danish-German war, the first real conflict as a unified nation. National Feeling would be high, since that war made Germany a colonial power already, even if the colony in question was close to worthless for decades to come. Most of Bismarck´s OTL objections are not an issue TTL and even a national Hero, as Bismarck is OTL and TTL, sometimes has to keep his ministries happy. In addition, making Hokkaido a profitable colony is far easier than Canada, esp. when you make a deal with Tokio about settlement by Japanese too.
So TTL Bismarck buys Hokkaido in 1867 from Japan, but as a compromise between him and the foreign ministry, the treaty includes provisions about a joint development of the Island by Japan and Germany. Up to a point, at least; Hokkaido will be German after all. A typical Bismarck move. Not only will this foster closer relations with Japan (at this time Japan begins his modernisation, so she will follow Germany´s lead in developing Hokkaido and other areas most of the times), the colonial administration can buy some needed goods in Japan directly, reducing the strain on the merchant fleet. And with Japanese and German colonists, the Island will reach a useful number of citizens faster.
These 3 main PoDs, with all the butterflies coming from them, have a heavy impact on TTL History.
Unified TTL 20 years before OTL and becoming a Großdeutschland/Greater Germany in 1853 will make Germany an industrial and economic powerhouse a lot earlier, but the colonial acquisitions in 1864 and 1867, one out of necessity for a peace treaty, the other due to lobbyism, do not only focus Berlin away from many foreign affairs, concentrating on colonial development, but change the stream of emigrants coming from Europe.
With Germany unified early and rather liberal, a sizeable number of Germans/Austrians who emigrated OTL between 1848-1880 will never move to the New World, their reasons gone. Some will settle in the “new” eastern parts of the Empire, someday tipping the population percentiles there decisively into the Germans favour.
From those whose reasons to emigrate did not change, many will go to Rupert´s Land and Hokkaido, not the US or Brazil to name a few. Unlike OTL, where most of the German colonies had climates, etc. disliked by persons willing to settle somewhere outside Europe, TTL Rupert´s Land (at least a big part of it) and Hokkaido can find favour with many would-be settlers.
Same with Italy. Unified early, in addition there are losses in the Civil War, means a lot of Italians never leaving. This not only changes the composition of the emigrants in many countries (like the US or esp. Argentina where many Italians went to), but the population growth of the immigrant nations too, which will be slower, due to the lower numbers of settlers coming in. Take the US as an example. OTL in 2005 (I don´t have newer numbers) there were around 50 million Americans of German ancestry and around 17 million of Italian ancestry. TTL, we can halve that.
More tomorrow or Saturday. Please comment or add some bits to the TL. It´s meant to be a collaborative effort. As an additional help here are some TTL in 2010 maps:
