Emperor Casey
Banned
Basically what it says. What would the results be economically, politically, socially etc if Israel never had to relinquish control of the Sinai peninsula?
Results of an Israeli Sinai?
- Thread starter Emperor Casey
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Deleted member 109224
Israeli-Egyptian relations would be much messier. Israel also has another million arabs under its jurisdiction (although a large portion of that is recent settlers from Egypt, so maybe that number is lower).
Also, even pre-Camp David the Israelis were planning on returning the western third of the Sinai to Egypt, handing the middle of the Sinai to the UN, and just keeping the eastern third for themselves. If they don't do that here, I imagine they'll either unilaterally let the UN administer the western portion OR let the US have bases in the Sinai.
Israel was contemplating building a canal from the Gulf of Aqaba to a new port city in the Sinai called Yamit. That canal may go through here, in which case Israel and much of the rest of the world could care less if the Suez Canal remains closed in perpetuity.
Also, even pre-Camp David the Israelis were planning on returning the western third of the Sinai to Egypt, handing the middle of the Sinai to the UN, and just keeping the eastern third for themselves. If they don't do that here, I imagine they'll either unilaterally let the UN administer the western portion OR let the US have bases in the Sinai.
Israel was contemplating building a canal from the Gulf of Aqaba to a new port city in the Sinai called Yamit. That canal may go through here, in which case Israel and much of the rest of the world could care less if the Suez Canal remains closed in perpetuity.
Deleted member 109224
Where was the money to build Yamit in the first place?
Also after doing my due diligence, the Israelis wanted a *Dead Sea* Canal not a Red Sea Canal to Aqaba. My understanding is that'd be a glorified ditch.
Lets try this:Anwar Sadat is assasinated shortly after his historic visit to Israel in 1977. Hosni Mubarak decides to take the preocess as slowly as he can as he is afraid of becoming another causalty. The Russians and Saudis both send greater economic and military aid to egypt to prevent them from leavign the Soviet/rejectionist blocs. No treaty is signed.The Israelis resigning themselves to the idea that there are no partners for peace, accelerate the settlement program in Sinai, discover oil and uranium. The latter two pay for the increased miliary expenditure of maintaining additional armored brigades. Seeing that they are unable to pry Egypt fromthe Soviet bloc, the US agrees to fund a Med--RED canal for half ownership. Osirik is blown up in 1981. The USSR goes belly up on schedule. This time however, the Egyptian government finds itself alongside Cuba as it's economic lifeline is severed from the defunct USSR and a Saudi Arabia driving down oil prices. The intifada occurs as in OTL. When Saddam overraches in Kuwait, the Egyptians send a large force to reap the benefits rather than let Syria get the goodies. No Oslo as there are no Egyptian or Jordanian treaties to embolden the Israelis.
Deleted member 109224
Hm. Without Oslo, management of the West Bank would be interesting.
Israel might withdraw from Gaza sooner here, and the place could be a Monaca-esque coastal city-state. The Egyptian portion of Rafah may be ceded to Gaza and Gaza could be made larger perhaps.
Emperor Casey
Banned
What would the Israeli relationship be like with the tribes of the Sinai? And would settler programs be as intense against the Palestinians as OTL?
As a precedent for the rest of their occupied/annexed territory that could be good.
Deleted member 109224
Probably more similar to the treatment of/integration of/interaction with the Bedouin Negev.
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Maybe Israel could leave Egypt with full control over the Suez Canal? Israel could leave a buffer zone of a few kilometers on the eastern bank of the Suez Canal, but take the rest of Sinai for themselves?
It does complicate things with Gaza though. Gaza is now wholly surrounded by Israel, so any "three-state solution" is basically dead in the water.
Palestine's land is far better than Sinai's land, so there wouldn't be too many settlers in Sinai, although as we saw in OTL, a sizable amount.
It does complicate things with Gaza though. Gaza is now wholly surrounded by Israel, so any "three-state solution" is basically dead in the water.
Palestine's land is far better than Sinai's land, so there wouldn't be too many settlers in Sinai, although as we saw in OTL, a sizable amount.
What about a freight railway from Eilat to the Mediterranean like the Chinese are supposedly planning to build now?
Was intermodal transportation already a mature thing back then?
Not sure about oil, though.
Deleted member 109224
They could just make Gaza a city-statelet and cede it extra territory like the Egyptian portion of Rafah. Israel gradually absorbs the WB while encouraging folks to relocate to Gaza.
Not sure how the Suez Canal would be handled. I expect they'd just hand the westernmost bit of the Sinai along the canal to the UN like how they gave the easternmost portion of the Golan to the UN. Meanwhile, the US can have a nice base just to the east of there for extra measure (which from the Israeli PoV is probably just going to be glorified stimulus spending for their efforts at urbanizing the area alongside the US saving Israel defense costs).
Most of the settlers in the West Bank are suburbanites who commute to Israel-proper for work. Odds are you'd just see urban-suburban populations popping up in places like Yamit-El Arish, Taba-Eilat, Ofira/Sharm-al-Sheikh at the tip of the Sinai, Nuweiba, etc.
Egypt OTL has set up a number of settlements in the Sinai (Ras Sedr, Abu Zenima, El Tor, etc) that are more or less the same thing Israel does with its towns in the Negev today and the local Sinai Bedouin aren't too fond of the Egyptians just setting up shop either.
The term settler is inaccurate just because it implies agricultural activity when it's more like developments being set up in reclaimed lands in Florida. Settlements around Jerusalem are normal urban expansion in a very not-normal political environment. Granted, the Sinai will probably attract fewer of the religious zionists who comprise the settlers in the West Bank.