Realistic path to a Central Powers-aligned US

[SavinkovDidNothingWrong]

With no particular POD in mind, is there a way to have Anglo-American relations deteriorate enough before WW1 that the US is willing to throw in with Germany militarily? Or at the very least remain a pro-German neutral?

Preferably not involving a Confederate victory, I'd like the lead-up to WW1 to be as close to OTL as possible, where applicable.

 

[Tom_B]

A long time ago I read that during the Spanish American War Spain came close to hammering out a deal with France to use St Pierre and Miquelon as a base from which to refuel Spanish cruisers for a raid off the American coast. This did not materialize. if it had and the US learned about it I could see it spoiling Franco-American relations.

A Hearst Presidency would have considerable friction with the British. A WJ Bryan Presidency would be adamantly neutral with little tilt. Almost as good would be a Champ Clark Presidency. A ProGerman tilt is really hard to get given the American business ties with the United Kingdom.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

The Venezuelan crisis of 1895 spirals out of control and either brings US and UK into conflict or sours relations to the point that the US becomes more German oriented. This would require precipitate action by UK. Outside the Northeastern WASP establishment there was historically no love lost between US population and UK. 1895 is probably last chance for US/UK relations to go South

 

[Hugh Third of Five]

1895 Venezuela crisis goes hot. Partition of the Mariana Islands never happens. Germany goes east first (so no Rape of Belgium). Black and Tan War starts early.

 

[SavinkovDidNothingWrong]

If Benjamin Harrison won reelection in 1892, would he have had a less diplomatic attitude in the Venezuela Crisis than Cleveland did?

There's plenty of candidates for a neutral president, but were there any German-sympathetic elements in American politics outside of the German immigrant community?

I kind of suspect that the PoD would have to go some decades back still.

 

[Comte de Geneve]

The Irish, under the rubric 'the enemy of my enemy is my friend'. Not only the historical hatreds but as late as the summer of 1914 British rule in Ireland was still a burning issue.

 

[Coulsdon Eagle]

Tarriff war between the USA and the British Empire sours relations. USA clashes with Japan over access to the China market, with the British backing their ally.

 

[Garrison]

The British and the Americans were actively working to improve relations specifically to avoid conflicts. Also this is a very WASP dominated USA still, problems in Ireland are not going to push America towards supporting Germany. IOTL there were plenty of things that happened that could have justified the USA taking a hardline with the British, they didn't do so because it didn't make economic or strategic sense to do so.

 

[Garrison]

If Benjamin Harrison won reelection in 1892, would he have had a less diplomatic attitude in the Venezuela Crisis than Cleveland did?

There's plenty of candidates for a neutral president, but were there any German-sympathetic elements in American politics outside of the German immigrant community?

I kind of suspect that the PoD would have to go some decades back still.

I think you would need something along the lines of the Confederate States promise to abolish slavery, the British openly support them, the South still loses and decades of hostility between the USA and Britain ensues, and yes I'm aware that all three parts of that POD are wildly unlikely.

 

[Samsonov]

Probably not the sort of allignment the original poster is looking for but if Germany never launched an unrestricted submarine campaign then what would US allied relations look like after the allies reject US peace talks in December 1916 followed by an allied debt crisis in 1917? Had this happened I suspect some historians today might see, fairly or unfairly, the US as pro-German neutral.

 

[Octosteel]

Essentially you need to prevent the Great Rapproachment from happening but there’s so many eastern financial interests that encouraged it that this is really hard. Perhaps Britain never loosening up their tariff wall and continuing to throw their weight around internationally without as much regard for international opinion.

 

[RamscoopRaider]

Backdoor it via Japan. Britain is allied with Japan, and Japan was considered the most likely US geopolitical foe

So interests in Japan provide more support to Filipino Rebels (they did OTL), get caught and lead to a diplomatic crisis, then Russo-Japanese war comes along and the IJN has a shooting incident with the USN that leads to dead Americans. No war but clearly both sides are under the threat of war, US never mediates the end of the war

Anti-Asian racism makes US-Japan relations stay bad, a few war scares, some hate crimes, politicians mouthing off keep things at a boil. The UK tries of course to mediate but dares not drop the Anglo-Japanese alliance with Germany being an immediate threat

WWI actually breaks out, and the US skirts the boundaries of neutrality against Japan. This leads to an incident where the IJN violates US territorial waters to attack a German ship hiding within. That is an act of war, the US demands concessions, Japan refuses, negotiations are slow, then an incident in China occurs, tempers flare, war is declared

At this point the US is not at war with the UK, and the UK is desperately trying to get the US to make peace and pointing out that the AJA means they aren't obligated to help Japan. Over the course of the war however, incidents between the USN and RN occur, tensions over RN actions vis a vis the blockade of Europe mount, already high from the UK causing a recession in 1914 by dumping its US assets (OTL this was stopped, but that is one man's personal decision, easy to change). Eventually after enough incidents, the US declares war on the UK and is cobelligerents with the CP

 

[weasel_airlift]

A long time ago I read that during the Spanish American War Spain came close to hammering out a deal with France to use St Pierre and Miquelon as a base from which to refuel Spanish cruisers for a raid off the American coast. This did not materialize. if it had and the US learned about it I could see it spoiling Franco-American relations.

You could start with that, then have Germany avoid their ham-handed demonstration at the Philippines during the same war. Maybe offer colliers, or coaling to the American squadron.

 

[SavinkovDidNothingWrong]

Backdoor it via Japan. Britain is allied with Japan, and Japan was considered the most likely US geopolitical foe

So interests in Japan provide more support to Filipino Rebels (they did OTL), get caught and lead to a diplomatic crisis, then Russo-Japanese war comes along and the IJN has a shooting incident with the USN that leads to dead Americans. No war but clearly both sides are under the threat of war, US never mediates the end of the war

Anti-Asian racism makes US-Japan relations stay bad, a few war scares, some hate crimes, politicians mouthing off keep things at a boil. The UK tries of course to mediate but dares not drop the Anglo-Japanese alliance with Germany being an immediate threat

WWI actually breaks out, and the US skirts the boundaries of neutrality against Japan. This leads to an incident where the IJN violates US territorial waters to attack a German ship hiding within. That is an act of war, the US demands concessions, Japan refuses, negotiations are slow, then an incident in China occurs, tempers flare, war is declared

At this point the US is not at war with the UK, and the UK is desperately trying to get the US to make peace and pointing out that the AJA means they aren't obligated to help Japan. Over the course of the war however, incidents between the USN and RN occur, tensions over RN actions vis a vis the blockade of Europe mount, already high from the UK causing a recession in 1914 by dumping its US assets (OTL this was stopped, but that is one man's personal decision, easy to change). Eventually after enough incidents, the US declares war on the UK and is cobelligerents with the CP

I like this a lot. Maybe have a few things like the Venezuela Crisis gone worse and other suggestions here to make US-UK relations chillier in the proceeding years too.

 

[Octosteel]

It seems far easier to make US relations with the UK worse than make it better with Germany. Any thoughts on how to make US German relations better?

 

[RamscoopRaider]

I like this a lot. Maybe have a few things like the Venezuela Crisis gone worse and other suggestions here to make US-UK relations chillier in the proceeding years too.

Problem with the Venezuela crisis is that is far back enough to have a bigger change on the leadup to WWI by potentially driving the US into aligning with France in the aftermath of the incident. France and Britain had war scares as recently as Fashoda in 1898 and Britain only really started caring about the German Naval Buildup after the second naval law of 1900. So there is a pretty good window where the US might end up aligning with the Entente and Britain the Central Powers if the US grows too close to France and starts a two power worthy naval buildup early enough

 

[SavinkovDidNothingWrong]

Problem with the Venezuela crisis is that is far back enough to have a bigger change on the leadup to WWI by potentially driving the US into aligning with France in the aftermath of the incident. France and Britain had war scares as recently as Fashoda in 1898 and Britain only really started caring about the German Naval Buildup after the second naval law of 1900. So there is a pretty good window where the US might end up aligning with the Entente and Britain the Central Powers if the US grows too close to France and starts a two power worthy naval buildup early enough

Entente US and Central Powers Britain is a really interesting one.

If the US starts an arms race with Britain early enough I'm not sure who would win that war. Seems to me like the Central Powers would win in Europe while the US would sweep Canada, and then we have a naval stalemate?

 

[LeonardWood6]

It seems far easier to make US relations with the UK worse than make it better with Germany. Any thoughts on how to make US German relations better?

Perhaps Kaiser Wilhelm II not being... Kaiser Wilhelm II?

As in, no Agadir Crisis and no diplomatic blunders. That's a good start.

Also, have Germany sign some profitable trade deals with Powerful American Trusts in certain important industries, like coal, oil, railway, shipping, etc. And they have a pretty big influence on politics, and would hence point the gov. in the pro-German direction.

 

[LeonardWood6]

Entente US and Central Powers Britain is a really interesting one.

Another way I see a CP Britain (or at least one that is more favorably inclined to Germany but is neutral in the actual war) is a very powerful Russia.

Perhaps Alexander II actually lives long enough to implement his reforms. IDK if they'd have actually helped the Russian Empire survive, but let's say for the sake of this scenario, they actually make Russia powerful.

Russia is now an industrial powerhouse and has a non-incompetent armed forces.

That's scary. Because now Russia is much more dangerous, and a wildcard in international affairs.

I think they'd completely annihilate the Ottomans in the Russo-Ottoman War in 1878, maybe they get the Straits? Such a thing would give their fleet access to the Mediterranean Sea, threatening Britain. Russia having a warm-water port is a MAJOR threat to Britain.

One thing is for certain: Russia crushes Japan in Russo-Japanese War in 1905.

These victories for Russia will no doubt make UK feel threatened. Russia is now the most powerful country in Continental Europe. UK is like: No no no. Can't be having that, can we? Germany and A-H will feel threatened since this Russia, actually being powerful is a major threat to them. So perhaps Germany, A-H, and UK agree to cooperate to stymie Russia's influence. France joins Russia since Russia is powerful.

 

[David Flin]

Also, have Germany sign some profitable trade deals with Powerful American Trusts in certain important industries, like coal, oil, railway, shipping, etc. And they have a pretty big influence on politics, and would hence point the gov. in the pro-German direction.

The problem here is that Britain and America already have a lot of trade going on. In the OTL period 1910-1914, USA exported around $10 billion, of which $5 billion went to the UK. By contrast, trade with Germany over the same period was less than one tenth of that.

Similar ratios apply to imports and investments.

"Sign some profitable trade deals" is all very well, but they're not going to change the situation that much.