Question: No/delayed WWI=French recession?

[Aphrodite]

This is something i thought about, all the threads on Russia had WW1 not happened, the most popular of its kind probably, seem to agree that the situatioj was snowballing into a renewed revolutionary unrest, with strikes growing in numbers every year.

That is not the consensus among Russian historians. The wave of strikes is greatly exaggerated.

They were highly concentrated in a few industries.

Most were short- a few hours at most.

The Okharna used an extremely loose definition of "political strike". None of them were aimed at changing the political system and none got any concession from the government- except for the trolley workers demand for Cossack protection.

Strikers and industrial workers were a puny percentage of the population

Finally, a wave of strikes was hitting across Europe especially the UK.

All signs point to a tightening of the job market was the root causei

If France enters a recession, Russia enters a recession, maybe even something as nasty as the 1980s Latin American debt crisis but this is just spitballing. Though it might resembled a repeat of 1905 than OTL 1917, nevertheless i think it has good odds at the very least of making the Tsar play by the Duma's rules for real.

Why is Russia entering a recession because of France?
France was a minimal trading partner, the Russian economy was still largely village orientated and the role of French capital one of the most widely exaggerated fictions.

The Tsar had completely restored his authority and could have dissolved the Duma, an unpopular institution, in a few years. He widely and succesfully ignored it.

There was barely a squeak from the country when he revamped the Dumas election rules.

One should compare the massive crowds celebrating the 300th anniversary of the Dynasty to the small protest movement.

 

[nagachate]

@Aphrodite Thanks, i belived that French capital was a much bigger pillar of Russian industrialization, my view is biaed becuse i was brought to associate the situation in Russia with something i was already familiar with(thus the mention of Latin America).

Coming back to France, i am under the impression that the left of center was gaining ground, the left wing of the PRRRS triumphed in 1914 and the SFIO of Jaurés was growing at the expenses of the PRRRS itself. That is to say, with Viviani not brought down by WW1(specifically the resignation of Delcassé after Bulgaria joined the Central Powers), Caillaux still leading the Radicals and Jaurés still alive, i think the most likely outcome is a winding down of mobilization. I could be wrong again, but the only person who could object would be Poincaré, not sure if that would be enough to bring another French government down.

 

[Catsmate]

This is something i thought about, all the threads on Russia had WW1 not happened, the most popular of its kind probably, seem to agree that the situatioj was snowballing into a renewed revolutionary unrest, with strikes growing in numbers every year.

If France enters a recession, Russia enters a recession, maybe even something as nasty as the 1980s Latin American debt crisis but this is just spitballing. Though it might resembled a repeat of 1905 than OTL 1917, nevertheless i think it has good odds at the very least of making the Tsar play by the Duma's rules for real.

I'm doubtful about that, the Tsar's repudiation of the 1905 concessions burned most of the goodwill.

 

[Catsmate]

That is not the consensus among Russian historians. The wave of strikes is greatly exaggerated.

They were highly concentrated in a few industries.

Most were short- a few hours at most.

Really?
There were over 1.3 million people involved.
Look at, as an example, at the General Strike in St. Petersburg in July.

 

[Aphrodite]

@Aphrodite Thanks, i belived that French capital was a much bigger pillar of Russian industrialization, my view is biaed becuse i was brought to associate the situation in Russia with something i was already familiar with(thus the mention of Latin America).

There's a lot of similarities between Russia and Latin America economies especially before the Japanese War. Tight money, heavy tariffs and borrowing abroad.



After 1906 they switch emphasis to agriculture and peasant crafts. There are a host of internal reforms that were greatly expanding the economy. The country had largely moved away from foreign capital and was financing its own expansion.

There was a loan being floated to finance some military railroads in Poland. The sum isnt that great about 900 million rubles over five years- the Russians economy was about 25 billion a year.

Coming back to France, i am under the impression that the left of center was gaining ground, the left wing of the PRRRS triumphed in 1914 and the SFIO of Jaurés was growing at the expenses of the PRRRS itself. That is to say, with Viviani not brought down by WW1(specifically the resignation of Delcassé after Bulgaria joined the Central Powers), Caillaux still leading the Radicals and Jaurés still alive, i think the most likely outcome is a winding down of mobilization.

The three year law is definitely dead and France will have to abandon Plan XVII as a result.

Economically France has challenges but she has options

 

[Aphrodite]

Really?
There were over 1.3 million people involved.
Look at, as an example, at the General Strike in St. Petersburg in July.

And the population of Russia?
180 million

And why was the "strike" so widespread?

The trolleys weren't running and people couldnt get to work.

And why were the trolleys not running?

Because the trolley workers were on strike demanding protection from rock throwers.

We've been through this before. Im still waiting for this list of political demands the workers were demanding as well as the concessions they were getting.

I've yet to see a shred of evidence supporting your claim that these strikes threatened the regime.

 

[M79]

*Three year law in France becomes either two years or one year with one year 'ready reserve' or somesuch.

*Non-profitable colonies will be re-examined for how to become profitable.

*The division of Angola and Mozambique between Germany and the UK will keep tensions fresh and may scare France into concern about a new agreement between London and Berlin.

https://www.deviantart.com/dinospain/art/1913-Anglo-German-Partition-Plan-of-Port-Colonies-757039044

*France may ironically begin a third faction of united minor powers largely looking out for themselves, with support (and influence) from Paris.

 

[nagachate]

The division of Angola and Mozambique between Germany and the UK will keep tensions fresh and may scare France into concern about a new agreement between London and Berlin.

Personally i doubt this would happen.
1) German diplomats were plainly incompetent, Britain was reluctant to betray Portugal and the aggressive behavior of the Germans did nothing to help
2) The agreements were supposed to only come into effect if Portugal defaulted on a joint Anglo German loan, and credit to Lisbon, they avoided that very well, refusing obviously ill intentioned loans.

As for profitability of colonies, the Germans hoped to spread the model of Wilhelm Solf which turned Samoa and Togo into profitable colonies.

 

[M79]

Personally i doubt this would happen.
1) German diplomats were plainly incompetent, Britain was reluctant to betray Portugal and the aggressive behavior of the Germans did nothing to help
2) The agreements were supposed to only come into effect if Portugal defaulted on a joint Anglo German loan, and credit to Lisbon, they avoided that very well, refusing obviously ill intentioned loans.

The prospect of London and Berlin being prepared to divide the territory of a third party should grab the attention of France. And Russia. And Italy. And anyone else who see the two as important to keep on opposite sides for the purpose of power balance.

 

[Booster Gold]

Could the French start an earlier Maginot line to mitigate the expense or would it just make things worse?

Alternatively, how much were they spending on the navy? Surely this could be reduced considering the nature of their enemies and allies.

 

[nagachate]

The prospect of London and Berlin being prepared to divide the territory of a third party should grab the attention of France. And Russia. And Italy. And anyone else who see the two as important to keep on opposite sides for the purpose of power balance.

IMO the only way for the plan to screw over Portugal to be advanced is if a Tory government takes office, and depending on how Asquith deals with Ireland that might aswell happen. Lord Grey was particularly bothered by the German delegation, and frankly i feel like the Conservatives were much more Teutophilic than the Liberals.