Puerto Rico without the Spanish-American War

[lynxpt]

What would have been the fate of Puerto Rico without the Spanish-American War? Puerto Rico was far more happy under Spain than Cuba and the Philippines were and being much smaller, it was much easier to control. I believe Puerto Rico would have remained part of Spain until the present day just like the Canary Islands.

 

[DocJamore]

Smaller is a relative term. Puerto Rico is smaller than the Philippines and Cuba. It is still an island 6000 kilometers from Spain with a population of several million people. Spain incorporating and holding on to Puerto Rico to the present day might be possible but it comes with the major caveat of skipping over the 20th century ( and lot of stuff happened in that century). I can list some lesser caveats a Spanish Puerto Rico might have to navigate to the present day.

Even if Puerto Rico is loyal to the Spanish government a major disruption in the legitimacy of that government, for example a Civil War in Spain, could cause major political and economic disruption of Puerto Rico possibly resulting in independence if Spain and Puerto Rico end up ideologically opposed. And if Puerto Rico declares independence it is very unlikely Spain could ever recover it due to the Monroe doctrine the United States was happy to enforce during this time period.

A majority of Puerto Ricans today live in the United States not Puerto Rico itself. Without that escape valve of immigration the population of Puerto Rico could end up being significantly higher. TTL Puerto Rico would have a different demographic history and the outlet of emigration would be affected.

Puerto Rico imports a majority of its food and TTL Puerto Rico would probably import even more if its population was higher. I am bringing this up because it seems likely this food would be imported from the United States regardless because it would be cheaper than importing it all the way from Europe. As a consequence, the United States would still have a major role to play in the Puerto Rican economy no matter what. It reminds me of colonial Canada a lot, having to balance being a part of another country politically while your economy was dominated by another one.

 

[lynxpt]

A majority of Puerto Ricans today live in the United States not Puerto Rico itself. Without that escape valve of immigration the population of Puerto Rico could end up being significantly higher. TTL Puerto Rico would have a different demographic history and the outlet of emigration would be affected.

Would there eventually be an exodus of Puerto Ricans for metropolitan Spain?

 

[Lalli]

Depends what will happen to mainland Spain. Not sure if there even would be civil war. It begun almost 40 years after POD so it could be butterflied away. Perhaps even whole Spanish republic. So Puerto Rico could go with many ways from remaining as part of Spain to present day to becoming completely independent at some point.

 

[mrmandias]

The thing is, the Spanish-American war was a hugely tremendous and traumatic event in the spanish national consciousness that deeply shaped everything politically that happened after that up to and including the spanish civil war.

 

[Nivek]

What would have been the fate of Puerto Rico without the Spanish-American War? Puerto Rico was far more happy under Spain than Cuba and the Philippines were and being much smaller, it was much easier to control. I believe Puerto Rico would have remained part of Spain until the present day just like the Canary Islands.

I think they would remain part of spain if both wanted it, as a Comunidad from overseas. Unlike Cuba, Puerto Ricans didn't care about independance

 

[GunterW]

While it is true most people in Puerto Rico were not actively interested in pursuing independence, they did rebel in 1868 and proclaimed a short-lived republic in response to the repressive and ineffective government of Isabel II.

There was certainly a push towards more autonomy, not necessarily integration, at least back then. They even got a constitution from Spain. They wanted to be left to govern themselves under the protection of another power.

Spanish Puerto Rico was very neglected, its value being more sentimental than economic, unlike Cuba, which if I recall correctly, was the wealthiest Spanish territory, Puerto Rico was a backwater, with only one good port, and a mostly mountainous terrain. Emigration will continue no matter who owns it. The economy is not big enough to sustain a high population.

Assuming Spain keeps Cuba, then all focus will be placed there. I don’t see the US allowing an alt fascist Spain keep control of Puerto Rico, even an alt Spanish Soviet-aligned republican government might be too uncomfortable. The US will apply the Panama treatment and sponsor separatism under whatever pretext they can come up with.
If for whatever reason political union survives any alt decolonization period, then sure, it could be part of Spain like French Guyana and New Caledonia are part of France.

 

[lynxpt]

Spanish Puerto Rico was very neglected, its value being more sentimental than economic, unlike Cuba, which if I recall correctly, was the wealthiest Spanish territory, Puerto Rico was a backwater, with only one good port, and a mostly mountainous terrain. Emigration will continue no matter who owns it. The economy is not big enough to sustain a high population.

Puerto Rico had a large coffee industry in the 19th century.