Prussian "Augustus the Strong"

[Jan Olbracht]

Inspired by discussion about Frederick Augustus of Saxony remaining Protestant. What about other option-member of House of Hohenzollern replaces him.
So Frederick, OTL first King of Prussia, is as capable as ruler of Brandenburg as IOTL, but his physicall health is worse. He dies earlier (in 1695) and his children are short living and all of them predeceased him, meanwhile his younger brother Henry (who IOTL died as infant in 1664) is healthly boy and grows into healthly adult. Like Augustus IOTL Henry of Brandenburg is not very religious, and before inheriting title of Elector he fights Ottomans in Hungary in Habsburg's service. He is possibly also husband of Ludwika Karolina Radziwiłł, who IOTL married his brother Louis. Henry of Brandenburg is ambitious like Augustus was IOTL and decides to run for Polish crown. For Habsburgs he's certainly better than Conti. He has also other advantages: his wife is heiress of vast estates in Lithuania, Brandenburg troops are better than Saxon one and Hohenzollerns from decades corrupted magnates of Western Poland (which is full of their clients) thus have large support base. How do you see his chances?

 

[JonasResende]

Inspired by discussion about Frederick Augustus of Saxony remaining Protestant. What about other option-member of House of Hohenzollern replaces him.
So Frederick, OTL first King of Prussia, is as capable as ruler of Brandenburg as IOTL, but his physicall health is worse. He dies earlier (in 1695) and his children are short living and all of them predeceased him, meanwhile his younger brother Henry (who IOTL died as infant in 1664) is healthly boy and grows into healthly adult. Like Augustus IOTL Henry of Brandenburg is not very religious, and before inheriting title of Elector he fights Ottomans in Hungary in Habsburg's service. He is possibly also husband of Ludwika Karolina Radziwiłł, who IOTL married his brother Louis. Henry of Brandenburg is ambitious like Augustus was IOTL and decides to run for Polish crown. For Habsburgs he's certainly better than Conti. He has also other advantages: his wife is heiress of vast estates in Lithuania, Brandenburg troops are better than Saxon one and Hohenzollerns from decades corrupted magnates of Western Poland (which is full of their clients) thus have large support base. How do you see his chances?

Why not simply let Ludwig of Brandenburg survive? It requires a later POD (1680s for Ludwig to survive, vs. 1660s for Heinrich) - unless you want a 1664 POD for othr reasons. Since I'm guessing Brandenburg and Poland would end up in a PU here? As to Brandenburg troops being better than Saxon ones, AFAIK, it was only in the 18th century that Prussian troops started outstripping them, in the 1660s-1700s Saxon troops were regarded as some of the best in Germany

 

[Jan Olbracht]

in the 1660s-1700s Saxon troops were regarded as some of the best in Germany

They were regarded high, but GNW showed that in fact they were not so good. I've choosen Heinrich survival, because he is carte blanche. Louis' survival could of course give similar results.
With Hohenzollern on Augustus' place GNW would not happen in OTL shape, Heinrich has less reasons to join the war (hereditary Baltic duchy? He has one already) and if it happens, Heinrich would attack Stettin, not Riga.
o

 

[JonasResende]

I've choosen Heinrich survival, because he is carte blanche. Louis' survival could of course give similar results.

Makes sense

 

[Steno]

Inspired by discussion about Frederick Augustus of Saxony remaining Protestant. What about other option-member of House of Hohenzollern replaces him.
So Frederick, OTL first King of Prussia, is as capable as ruler of Brandenburg as IOTL, but his physicall health is worse. He dies earlier (in 1695) and his children are short living and all of them predeceased him, meanwhile his younger brother Henry (who IOTL died as infant in 1664) is healthly boy and grows into healthly adult. Like Augustus IOTL Henry of Brandenburg is not very religious, and before inheriting title of Elector he fights Ottomans in Hungary in Habsburg's service. He is possibly also husband of Ludwika Karolina Radziwiłł, who IOTL married his brother Louis. Henry of Brandenburg is ambitious like Augustus was IOTL and decides to run for Polish crown. For Habsburgs he's certainly better than Conti. He has also other advantages: his wife is heiress of vast estates in Lithuania, Brandenburg troops are better than Saxon one and Hohenzollerns from decades corrupted magnates of Western Poland (which is full of their clients) thus have large support base. How do you see his chances?

Would Henry be as dependent on foreign support as Augustus was IOTL for his succession?

 

[Vitruvius]

Interesting, it certainly has more opportunity for synergy as the two realms are in direct contact unlike Saxony which had Silesia between it and Poland. The Swedes would not like it as I'm sure they'd see the threat to Swedish Pomerania and Livonia. Pomerania had been recently occupied (1675) by Brandenburg and only barely recovered by Sweden thanks to French intervention so it would probably be Henry's first target. Truth be told I think it might make a lot of people uneasy as it clearly presents the possibility of a new Baltic power emerging. So Russia and Austria might not be fully on board.

As to the Radziwill marriage, her family was Calvinist so I'm not sure how well that would work if he converted but then again Frederick Augustus' wife refused to convert and he did all right.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

As to the Radziwill marriage, her family was Calvinist so I'm not sure how well that would work if he converted but then again Frederick Augustus' wife refused to convert and he did all right.

Ludwika Karolina died IOTL in 1695 so if nothing changes about it, it would not be problem, and Henry could simply raise their little kids as Catholics (and propably would remarry to Habsburg or Wittelsbach Catholic girl). If he is such opportunist as Hohenzollerns used to be he'll not join any war that do not guarantee easy victory. Also with Henry being King of Poland already, would he push for making also Prussia a kingdom? Two royal crowns for one elector? That seems to be too much.

 

[Vitruvius]

Seems like Prussia would be sufficient for his purposes as a Duchy. He already has a crown so why create a new one whole cloth. Besides who would be the fount of that honor? I don't think he could get the Emperor to consent and the Polish crown can't create other crowns so he'd just be the self proclaimed but largely unrecognized King of Prussia.

 

[LeCHVCK]

He would be King of Prussia anyway as this was the title of the polish king in royal Prussia. There would be no King in Prussia TTL though.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

He would be King of Prussia anyway as this was the title of the polish king in royal Prussia. There would be no King in Prussia TTL though.

King of Poland had title of Duke of Prussia in his titulature but not title of King of Prussia.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Other obvious consequence-Charles Philip of Palatinate never marries Ludwika Karolina Radziwiłł ITTL.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Heinrich of Brandenburg/Henryk II of Poland would be in much better position than Augustus with better army and shared border with PLC. He'd be, in the long run, feared by Habsburgs and Russians. If Henry's son (name him Louis, born in 1692) marries Maria Josepha of Austria like Augustus III did IOTL then now Catholic Hohenzollerns could even claim Imperial throne, something other powers would not be happy about. Henry could trade his support for Maria Theresa (let's go with minimal butterflies) in exchange for Austrian support for election of his son to PLC throne.

 

[JonasResende]

Other obvious consequence-Charles Philip of Palatinate never marries Ludwika Karolina Radziwiłł ITTL.

Well, if we're still looking for a Polish heiress for him to wed - what about this lady? She was called the "uncrowned queen of Poland" - and was mistress to Prince Rakoczi IIRC

 

[krieger]

Heinrich of Brandenburg/Henryk II of Poland would be in much better position than Augustus with better army and shared border with PLC. He'd be, in the long run, feared by Habsburgs and Russians. If Henry's son (name him Louis, born in 1692) marries Maria Josepha of Austria like Augustus III did IOTL then now Catholic Hohenzollerns could even claim Imperial throne, something other powers would not be happy about. Henry could trade his support for Maria Theresa (let's go with minimal butterflies) in exchange for Austrian support for election of his son to PLC throne.

It depends on lots of factors. First of all, we need to answer the question if Henry II wants to start GNW and join the alliance with Peter or he doesn't care and wants to strengthen his internal power in PLC first? If he chooses the second option (battle of Olkienniki is a good opportunity to do so, there was even IOTL a paper supposedly made by some Lithuanian nobles called "postanowienie wileńskie" which presented the programme to give Augustus an absolute control over the country) than he doesn't need Maria's Theresa's support (because his son is already made King/the throne goes hereditary) and could even start alt-Silesian war.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

It depends on lots of factors. First of all, we need to answer the question if Henry II wants to start GNW and join the alliance with Peter or he doesn't care and wants to strengthen his internal power in PLC first? If he chooses the second option (battle of Olkienniki is a good opportunity to do so, there was even IOTL a paper supposedly made by some Lithuanian nobles called "postanowienie wileńskie" which presented the programme to give Augustus an absolute control over the country) than he doesn't need Maria's Theresa's support (because his son is already made King/the throne goes hereditary) and could even start alt-Silesian war.

Best thing Henryk II could do during GNW is to not join immediately but to wait and observe situation, then join opportunistically winning side late in the conflict, it would be so...Prussian

 

[krieger]

Best thing Henryk II could do during GNW is to not join immediately but to wait and observe situation, then join opportunistically winning side late in the conflict, it would be so...Prussian

If so, than he probably doesn't need Maria's Theresa's support because (assuming GNW still happens between Sweden and Russia only) because Henryk IV (I think that he'd take this numer to honor his ancestors - Henry the Bearded, and Henry the Pious) has already consolidated power in PLC and has made some reforms in it. In addition, if only his forces aren't wasted by the struggle it means that in alt-1740 Henryk IV or his son is the strongest monarch in whole Eastern Europe. I think that in this situation he would attack Maria Theresa immediately with French support.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

If so, than he probably doesn't need Maria's Theresa's support because (assuming GNW still happens between Sweden and Russia only) because Henryk IV (I think that he'd take this numer to honor his ancestors - Henry the Bearded, and Henry the Pious) has already consolidated power in PLC and has made some reforms in it. In addition, if only his forces aren't wasted by the struggle it means that in alt-1740 Henryk IV or his son is the strongest monarch in whole Eastern Europe. I think that in this situation he would attack Maria Theresa immediately with French support.

It could happen, that GNW would be butterflied away without Saxons being involved (and without Brandenburgians willing to take their place).
Henry could indeed recall memory of his distant ancestors, Silesian Piasts. It could be useful later, during ATL War of Austrian Succession.

 

[krieger]

It could happen, that GNW would be butterflied away without Saxons being involved (and without Brandenburgians willing to take their place).
Henry could indeed recall memory of his distant ancestors, Silesian Piasts. It could be useful later, during ATL War of Austrian Succession.

Yes, Peter was no fool and would not risk attacking Sweden with only Denmark as an ally. So I mentioned it, I think that Henry wouldn't even bother with renouncing his rights but would attack nonetheless. But we should start from the very beginning. Even if Peter isn't willing to attack Sweden, it doesn't mean that he wouldn't do anything. Augustus the Strong is still around, so Saxony, Ottomans and Peter could team up against PLC.

 

[Jan Olbracht]

Although Hohenzollern doesn't need Baltic Duchy around Riga, he could still be tempted by Stettin, so it is not given, that GNW would not happen, but it is less likely than with Augustus.
Also, I don't think ATL Saxony would ally with Ottomans, Austria's enemy.

 

[krieger]

Although Hohenzollern doesn't need Baltic Duchy around Riga, he could still be tempted by Stettin, so it is not given, that GNW would not happen, but it is less likely than with Augustus.
Also, I don't think ATL Saxony would ally with Ottomans, Austria's enemy.

It is indeed less likely. Stettin didn't encourage Hohenzollerns to war OTL, so it wouldn't do so ITTL. Why not? Augustus didn't care about Austria. He wanted at some point to ally with France - Austria's enemy.