"Project Normandy:" Failed D-Day Invasion Story Idea

[tbguy1992]

I've been thinking about this idea for a while, and I have a rough timeline created already with the goal to eventually turn it into a novel/book/thing using an epistolary narrative (World of Laughter, World of Tears or The Ides of March for example. Project Normandy is just the working title for me until I can come up with something different, but I want to get some feedback on the idea and the timeline I have so far.

POD: The weather reports for June 6 are not as reliable as OTL and it's unknown if the stormy weather occuring on June 5 will break. General Eisenhower decides to delay the invasion two weeks, to June 18-19. (OTL, from Wikipedia: At a vital meeting on 5 June, Eisenhower's chief meteorologist (Group Captain J.M. Stagg) forecast a brief improvement for 6 June. ATL, Captain Stagg does not give this forecast).

The airborne troops go in the evening of June 18/19, and first landings occur early on June 19. However, despite early success, a major storm that wasn't forecasted swept up the Channel the afternoon of June 19 (This did occur OTL), sinking hundreds of boats, killing thousands of soldiers and supplies of follow-up reserves, grounding the Air Force and making it impossible for the Navy to support the landings. The Germans used this opportunity to smash the landings (Rommel was at hand and not in Germany, so was able to rally the defenders), and killed or captured many of those that landed, some 160,000 soldiers in total (50,000 killed in the storm and on the beach, 100,000 captured) Only when the storm died off on June 22, with the entire invasion in shambles, did the 10,000 or so uncaptured survivors manage to be evacuated back to England.

The "simple" timeline I've created so far (a more detailed timeline is also in work, but this is just the barebones version):

June 19, 1944: D-Day Fails due to postponement and major storm (POD).

June 23, 1944: Eisenhower Resigns, Montgomery given command of the Supreme Allied Command

June 17, 1944: Battle of Saipan begins

July 1944: Bretton Woods Conference

July 20, 1944: July 20th Plot fails. Rommel is not implicated and survives the purge

July 25, 1944: Vote of Confidence in UK, Churchill barely survives.

July-October 1944: Operation Bagration, Soviet advances into Eastern Europe

August 1, 1944: Warsaw Uprising begins. Soviet’s halt outside of Warsaw, Nazi’s put down the revolt, Soviet’s then sweep in and take over Poland.

August 1944: FDR has a stroke and pulls out of Presidential election. Truman is named the new Democratic candidate, James Byrnes is named new VP, no one is happy, Democratic party begins to fracture.

September 1944: French Resistance rises up in occupied France, fighting is fierce, Paris destroyed.

September 1944: Finland drops out of war.

October 1944: Belgrade reclaimed by Tito and Yugoslav partisans

October 1944: Operation Dragoon in southern France is launched, successfully lands, then struggles to move north. Further troops are sent to French Resistance occupied Brittany and Bordeaux.

October 1944: Moscow Conference: Churchill and Stalin meet, but the meeting is rough and little is decided.

October 1944: Further offensives in Italy push north of Rome.

October 1944: Battle of Leyte Gulf and Invasion of Philippines

November 1944: Republican Thomas Dewey just wins the Presidency, with 43% of the vote, Truman with 41%, and Wallace splitting the Democrat vote with 18%.

January 1945: New Soviet Offensive, marches into Germany proper, Austria and other Central European nations.

February 1945: Yalta Conference. Dewey doesn’t attend, post-war occupation left to decide later

February 1945: Battle of Iwo Jima

February 1945: Bretton Woods plan shelved by new administration, plans for post war rebuilding are scaled down.

March 1945: Allies break through in Italy. Hitler retreats from Berlin to Bavarian Alps.

April 1945: Offensive in France, slow fighting against Erwin Rommel’s forces

April 1945: British/Canadian landings liberate Netherlands

May 1945: Soviets occupy Berlin, race across North European Plain to the North Sea and Rhine.

May 1945: UK Elections: Labour and Clement Attlee wins a majority government, Churchill leaves office.

June 1945: Soviet, British, American, French and Canadian troops meet at multiple places along the Rhine River. Only Bavaria remains in Nazi hands.

June 26, 1945: United Nations formed in San Francisco.

July 1945: Hitler and top cronies (Goering, Goebbels, Speer and others) sneak into Switzerland. Rommel, with no further contact to high command, surrenders.

August 1945: Potsdam Conference. Stalin, Dewey, Attle and de Gaulle meet, conference is very rocky: Dewey declines Soviet aid against Japan, the Occupation zones finally set up in Europe.

September 1945: Dewey authorizes nukes on Japan: Kyoto is destroyed, Emperor Hirohito and family killed due to taking refuge in nominally safe city. Nagasaki destroyed a week later. USSR declares war on Japan anyway, but American Marines land in Korea before the USSR reaches the Yalu River. Japan surrenders soon after

September 1945: Kuomintang China, with huge American aid, is able to occupy much of the mainland, confining the Communists to Soviet held Manchuria and near Mongolia.

October 1945: “Alpine Crisis:” Hitler’s escape to Switzerland revealed, Soviet’s give ultimatum to oblivious Swiss government, invades, occupies whole nation, captures Hitler and Nazis. UK, France and US condemns the invasion.

November 1945: Peace of London: negotiations take place: Almost all of Germany, Denmark, Austria, Norway, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Switzerland, Hungary, Greece and Romania are Soviet, Rhineland, Belgium, Netherlands, Italy and France are reformed as democratic nations. US forces are still stationed in Western Europe for now, with plans to have them all home by 1948 and demobilization takes place.

 

[John_Smith]

I really like the concept of it, though I find it kind of hard to believe that Switzerland would fall to the Soviets in only a month. Their National Redoubt plan would've certainly given the Soviets a bloody nose, and over a much lengthier period of time.

 

[TheKutKu]

I really like the concept of it, though I find it kind of hard to believe that Switzerland would fall to the Soviets in only a month. Their National Redoubt plan would've certainly given the Soviets a bloody nose, and over a much lengthier period of time.

The success of the redoubt really depends on 1) If it has a border with a friendly or neutral country to resupply (generally Italy) and 2) to what length the invading country is willing to go.

It would likely have the first but if the soviets are really determined they can just throw a couple million men at them with continuous carpet bombing of the mountains. Or they can attack the border and close off the redoubt and wait until they starve. Or, they can just slaughter dozens or hundred of thousands of Swiss until the army surrender.

Or you know, Switzerland can simply accept to give away the Nazi leadership

The redoubt would have been effective in 1940, against Germany if Italy doesn’t invade too since Germany likely wouldn’t be able to focus too many ressources on it, not in 1945 against the full red army

But for the OP, nice timeline, but I wonder, wouldn’t the allies focus even more on strategic bombing? To me the failure of d day wouldn’t change the date of total collapse of the German industry and logistic around March 45, it could even bring it earlier with more bombing, I doubt any German army could lead successful defence or even slowing down the allies significantly beyond some near guerilla level warfare after April 45

 

[Historyman 14]

A failed D-Day would see the Germans have a even greater focus on the Soviets. (AKA: Everything used in the OTL throw at the Bulge.) and so they are delay for some time. And Stalin would be enrage he's not getting his second front the Allies promised him and so the Red Army is still 'fighting alone' so to speak.

I feel Truman could win the 1944 Election, if only by a hair. The Democrats would still control Congress into 1946. And he likely be a one-term President unless he doubles down on standing up to the Soviets and rebuilding Europe.

Switzerland would throw Hitler and his Nazi Goons to the Allies, but I feel Hitler would do the same in OTL, and refuse to leave Berlin, and kills himself as in OTL.

Not even God himself could save the KMT, and even in OTL, we never could understand why the Nationalists was failing to win against the Reds, and into 1949/1950, was willing to either coup Chiang Kai-shek, or throw them under the bus and 'let' the PRC conquer Taiwan.

As in OTL, we won't nuke Tokyo, or Kyoto, Killing the Emperor would throw Japan into a blood-rage and they would never stop fighting. We won't have time for Korea, nor would we have time to help the KMT.

 

[SsgtC]

Like @John_Smith I love the concept of a failed landing, but I think your casualty figures are too high. Especially for only a 3 day operation. Even with Rommel present, that's not going to change the state of the fortifications or the quality of troops that he had (mainly 2nd and 3rd line troops including former POWs who agreed to fight for Germany).

If the Allies manage to get 100k plus ashore, they aren't going anywhere. Rommel being on scene however will make their life hell. But like in OTL, Rommel did not have command of the Panzer divisions needed to throw the landing back into the Sea. Hitler would still be convinced that the main landing would be at Calais. And refuse to release the Panzers.

One last thing, there is no way in hell Montgomery will be promoted to Supreme Commander. That slot was always going to be an American officer. My money would be on Omar Bradley.

 

[Aber]

One last thing, there is no way in hell Montgomery will be promoted to Supreme Commander. That slot was always going to be an American officer. My money would be on Omar Bradley.

Bring Devers back from the Mediterranean.

 

[SsgtC]

Bring Devers back from the Mediterranean.

I overlooked him. He would be the best choice to assume command. I'm just not sure he would actually get it. He tended to clash with his superiors.

 

[Captain Seafort]

One last thing, there is no way in hell Montgomery will be promoted to Supreme Commander. That slot was always going to be an American officer. My money would be on Omar Bradley.

I agree with your first assertion, not the second. Monty was too good at pissing off everyone he came in contact with to be given such a politically focussed job. On the other hand, the US army has already had its crack of the whip, and it went pear-shaped, so I think think there's a decent chance of a British SAC and US deputy. Tedder? Wilson? Alex? The Auk? Brooke would obviously be the ideal candidate, but he's too important in his current job of keeping Churchill under control.

May 1945: UK Elections: Labour and Clement Attlee wins a majority government, Churchill leaves office.

I think it's highly unlikely that there will be a general election before the end of the European war.

 

[SsgtC]

I agree with your first assertion, not the second. Monty was too good at pissing off everyone he came in contact with to be given such a politically focussed job. On the other hand, the US army has already had its crack of the whip, and it went pear-shaped, so I think think there's a decent chance of a British SAC and US deputy. Tedder? Wilson? Alex? The Auk? Brooke would obviously be the ideal candidate, but he's too important in his current job of keeping Churchill under control.



I think it's highly unlikely that there will be a general election before the end of the European war.

It's certainly possible that a Brit gets the top spot, but the United States was providing so much of the material and manpower for the Western front, I think politics would force it to stay an American General. If for no other reason than to keep Congress happy.

 

[LuckyLuciano]

I feel Truman could win the 1944 Election, if only by a hair. The Democrats would still control Congress into 1946. And he likely be a one-term President unless he doubles down on standing up to the Soviets and rebuilding Europe.

I think that having Roosevelt straight up die from a stroke (as opposed to just dropping out of the race), and having the Democratic party refuse to replace him with Wallace on the ticket and instead opt for Truman, would give Wallace the bully pulpit to absolutely divide the party with a third-party run. Even then it would be a close race, but I think Roosevelt staying in office would not be enough to swing the election to the Republicans. Also maybe switch Byrnes for William O. Douglas in the case of Roosevelt dying as Byrnes only really had the support of Roosevelt, he was already the runner-up and Truman later approached him for the VP spot in 1948.

 

[tbguy1992]

Thanks for the feedback so far that I got since I posted this late last night. I'll try to explain my reasoning, though some of the ideas I'll change if needed. Sorry for not using quotes, on my phone, hard to do so.

First, the Swiss were unaware that the Nazis were there at first, having snuck across the border to a bunker Nazi sympathizers in Switzerland had built for them. The NKVD/Soviet agents found it before the Swiss did, and Stalin was furious, and declared war when the Swiss, confused or simply thinking that it was a ruse (like when the Soviets declared war on Finland after "Finnish forces killed our soldiers). That's said, the invasion may stretch a bit longer. Would three or four months make more sense?

For the 160,000 I put on Normandy, that was from reading how many were put on shore in the first day. Not all of them made it too the beach, well over two thirds of the dead were still at sea and drowned when the storm hit, and for three days those on the beach had no reinforcements, no supply, no air support, no navla support, and Rommel, even if he didn't have the tanks, was able to organize the men and destroy the beaches piecemeal.

I wasn't to sure if the Nazis would throw everything against the Soviets if the D-Day landings failed. For one thing, Normandy was a diversion to the Nazis, and the main landing was supposed to be a Pas de Calais, an idea reinforced by Operation Bodyguard. This would still hold a lot of soldiers in the west, especially when the French rose up in September.

The strategic bombing should have been mentioned, and, yes, it would be the only way for the Western Allies to strike back. But I don't think it would have changed too much from OTL, except maybe with more targets in France being bombed later.

I wasn't sure if Roosevelt should die or be voted out/drop out of the election, because there are a lot of TLs where he dies, and it all falls apart (For All Time, for example). But Roosevelt dying may be what is needed to throw the Dems into chaos, and cause the close election. Might even have Dewey win his Electoral Votes without winning the popular vote...

I was going to have the KMT win, with Dewey giving all aid short of declaring war on the CPC, including pushing it by having volunteers, advisors, disguises airplanes flown by Americans bombing CPC positons, though most of that will be after the war. And the civil war may last a bit longer as a result, possibly until 1951 or later.

Kyoto was nuked because Stimson was not there to convince them not to, and the Imperial Family was moved there due to the lack of bombing Kyoto and all the bombing in Tokyo to keep them safe. So it was not on purpose, and it would have major reprocussions in the post war era.

I threw Montgomery as the Supreme Allied Commander as more a placeholder than anything. But I need someone who is a good Army commander, but who is not as diplomatic or organized as Ike.

The UK election may be pushed back until the Nazis fully surrender (but not the Alpine Crisis), but the results will still be the same.

It's the post war period that I will have some surprises in store, but I will be putting that part of the TL online later. Busy right now.

Thank you for your comments and suggestions, and thank you for the good comments on the POD itself.

 

[Tannenberg]

Not bad, but a couple of nipticks:
1) Hitler was too deluded on his own lie that Germany was invincible and had to win the war: thats why he killed himself instead of just surrendering. I don't imagine Hitler fleeing to other country because that would meant that he accepted the outcome of the war.
2) I think that the Soviet advance should be slower than OTL because the German could send reinforcements from the West after defeating the Alles on France.
3) I don't think the French resistance could occupy Brittany and make an uprising after suffering a major blow on Paris.
4) Why the Soviets are in a worse geopolitical position than in OTL losing most of his OTL satelites if they occupied a good chunk of Central and Western Europe?
5) Soviets have inteligence on Switzerland: why invading a neutral country instead of just sending assasins to kill Hitler and his croonies or just put pressure on the Swiss?

 

[SsgtC]

For the 160,000 I put on Normandy, that was from reading how many were put on shore in the first day. Not all of them made it too the beach, well over two thirds of the dead were still at sea and drowned when the storm hit, and for three days those on the beach had no reinforcements, no supply, no air support, no navla support, and Rommel, even if he didn't have the tanks, was able to organize the men and destroy the beaches piecemeal.

Thing is, even if a storm comes up, you won't have nearly that many dead. The Allies would have simply halted landing operations until the weather moderated. And even a bad storm will not drive off the heavy ships. So the battleships and heavy cruisers will still be on station providing fire support.

And I feel I have to point out again that two weeks and having Rommel there is not enough to handwave away the state of the beach defenses. Only Omaha Beach was strongly defended, with Juno being a distant second (heavy initial resistance, but it had been broken within two hours of landing). Rommel did not have the manpower alone too throw the landings back into the Sea. If he tried to redeploy troops, he'd be opening a hole in his defenses. And he was too smart to do that.

 

[tbguy1992]

Not bad, but a couple of nipticks:
1) Hitler was too deluded on his own lie that Germany was invincible and had to win the war: thats why he killed himself instead of just surrendering. I don't imagine Hitler fleeing to other country because that would meant that he accepted the outcome of the war.
2) I think that the Soviet advance should be slower than OTL because the German could send reinforcements from the West after defeating the Alles on France.
3) I don't think the French resistance could occupy Brittany and make an uprising after suffering a major blow on Paris.
4) Why the Soviets are in a worse geopolitical position than in OTL losing most of his OTL satelites if they occupied a good chunk of Central and Western Europe?
5) Soviets have inteligence on Switzerland: why invading a neutral country instead of just sending assasins to kill Hitler and his croonies or just put pressure on the Swiss?

1) Alright, I can accept that. I was thinking it would have been Hitler trying to mount a last ditch effort, but yeah, maybe he should be shooting himself. The other Nazis might try to make it to Switzerland though.

2) Even if the Soviet advance were slower, I don't think it would be months slower, maybe a few weeks at most. The Germans still didn't have the oil or the manpower, and sending a couple dozen divisions to the East may not really delay things too much against the Red Army: they'll reach Berlin by June, maybe July if the Nazis are lucky.

3) Maybe I could rework it so that the movement of German troops from France to the East may give the French Resistance a better chance at an uprising, though I don't know if they would "win" in Paris initially. But if its coridinated enough with some of the Allies, an uprising in Brest, Bordeaux and some other ports may allow some Western Allies troops to land and help, though it would be very disorganized for a few months.

4) I may have not written this clearly, but the original idea was that the USSR would occupy more territory: almost all of Germany (minus the Western Rhine), Denmark, Norway, Austria and Greece on top of what they already had. Though maybe the Low Countries and northern France, and minus the Rhineland, could also be Soviet occupied.

5) it was more because of how ruthless and angry Stalin and the Soviets are, that would invade Switzerland to make sure all the Nazis come to justice... And to destroy another Capitalist nation whose neutrality may have helped the Nazis more. (And raise questions inithe Cold War if the Nazis were planted to give a cassus belli) Though, maybe I will change it, have the Nazis be rounded up by the Swiss and handed over.

 

[tbguy1992]

Thing is, even if a storm comes up, you won't have nearly that many dead. The Allies would have simply halted landing operations until the weather moderated. And even a bad storm will not drive off the heavy ships. So the battleships and heavy cruisers will still be on station providing fire support.

And I feel I have to point out again that two weeks and having Rommel there is not enough to handwave away the state of the beach defenses. Only Omaha Beach was strongly defended, with Juno being a distant second (heavy initial resistance, but it had been broken within two hours of landing). Rommel did not have the manpower alone too throw the landings back into the Sea. If he tried to redeploy troops, he'd be opening a hole in his defenses. And he was too smart to do that.

I'm still not 100% sure the exact numbers or exact hour by hour play by play of how these landings will fail, and it isn't totally needed for the story. The idea is that the first waves land, the storm comes up, the next waves are pulled back and/or sunk, communications falter, the airplanes are grounded, and the Germans are able to take advantage of it to the point that the few survivors are forced to be withdrawn because chance of success at this time is not sufficient. So, yes, the numbers I'm using are not realistic or plausible, but I hope the main idea, that the Normandy landings fails because of an unexpected storm that sets in motion the rest of the timeline.

 

[kclcmdr]

I believe that if the June 4-6th was cancelled, that the next opening was two weeks from now or in July of the same time date....

The Invasion would probably go on but with security tighten even further....

 

[Historyman 14]

Between me and @Joshua Ben Ari...

The Germans would struggle with the oncoming Soviets and the massing of troops at the Channel - two-front wars are never easy. They might be able to hold back WAllied forces in the west, but I don't think they'll do much to stop them for much longer. World War II ends either late 1945 or early-1946.

There's not going to be an election in 1945, so Churchill will still be PM until the war's end, but the Labour majority in the 1946 election will be massive. Churchill won't have his second term as PM, so he'll just go down in history as the man who beat the Nazis and as Britain's finest PM. The Conservatives are going to be locked out of government for at least the mid-to-late-1950s.

The Swiss might hide the Nazis (they have, after all, hidden Nazi gold and other stolen fortunes taken by the Nazis in Swiss bank accounts; with it being a nightmare to get these items back to their rightful owners), though with the Allied presence they might just surrender them in exchange for US/UK/CAN/FR/SU troops crossing into Switzerland to steal these individuals. (And besides, invading Switzerland would be very costly for the Red Army and make the USSR bad in the eyes of the world for attacking a neutral nation for a handful of figures.)

We also doubt the Soviets controlling Denmark, Norway, and Switzerland. (And myself Greece.)

Killing the Emperor would make Japan forever hate America and ensure Japan to fight on to the last man.

We did support the Nationalists in the same way, and they still lost. They are simply too much deep rooted corrupt and deep rooted incompetent. Disorganization and decentralization of the KMT (Nationalist China was more a confederation of warlord cliques and a central clique of Chiang's friends and relations. )

The Reds meanwhile had far less corruption, great loyalty from China's peasants (Winning them most of China's population support), had a well thought out plan, and played the Nationalists like a fiddle.

We be too focus on rebuilding what's left of Japan and Europe to help China.

Destroying Paris would be ripping out the cultural and political heart of France. Every landmark of note and every bridge crossing the Seine would be gone. Rebuilding Paris would be next to impossible. France will forever hate the Germans. You be breaking the back of modern France.

 

[fdas]

I was going to have the KMT win, with Dewey giving all aid short of declaring war on the CPC, including pushing it by having volunteers, advisors, disguises airplanes flown by Americans bombing CPC positons, though most of that will be after the war. And the civil war may last a bit longer as a result, possibly until 1951 or later.

Can the KMT be saved even with all of that US aid?

 

[Historyman 14]

Can the KMT be saved even with all of that US aid?

Nope. Before 1937, they could have won over the Communists, but by this point, they doomed to fail.

 

[fdas]

Nope. Before 1937, they could have won over the Communists, but by this point, they doomed to fail.

What if there is straight up US intervention with boots on the ground landing in Manchuria.