Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline

[Quinkana]

Both @Lascaris and @X Oristos know economic stuff far better than I do. I agree with everything they said, and they said it better than I could. But even from a strategic point of view Cyrenaica has significantly more going for it than messing around near the Horn of Africa. It’s less populated, it’s not important to controlling trade routes like the Horn is/will be so the Greeks have no immediate competition, focusing on the coast and the costal cities plan a towards the Greeks military strengths, and it’s significantly closer to Greece itself which makes it easier to control and settle. If the Greeks want to do any African colonization that’s the best place for them to try. Depending on the ottomans naval strength and how the One Year War goes you might see the Greeks land in the area anyway since they should have control of the seas.

yeah I agree. I'm just saying that getting ethiopia as an ally would be in the interests of greece too and preventing the italians from taking over would be something the greeks would be aware of. Something like ensuring Eritrea was Ethiopian and having ports that they can use in case their italian neighbour fucks around in the horn of africa would be something that the Greeks would like to do. Hell its something I think the other european powers would like because greece is still a secondary power and considering

As we know it? Probably not. That said there were several alternative proposals throughout history for a Jewish Homeland and one of those could succeed. Even if there was one that was formed in Palestine it could be significantly different based on what leads up to its creation.

tbf my favourite scheme is to put the Jews in Madagascar because its an island even tho it'd basically just be colonising it, but it would be interesting to see the Jews be put in Africa instead of Palestine due to different circumstances and the fact that we prob wouldn't see a hitler character pop up ittl. Would we get a hinged architect hitler?

 

[Sphenodon]

At this point I'm most curious to see what level of circumstances could lead to an effective stalemate (or at least, a very mangled peace) in the One Year War. Foreign intervention by one or more of the Great Powers over some matter pertaining to the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean? Corruption rooted in the Kleptocracy making the ground forces of the Hellenic Army a lot less effective than they should be? The Ottomans just fighting a pretty effective defense and not falling victim to tactical blunders? Internal factors forcing an early cessation of the war effort for some reason? Could be any of a number of things working in tandem I suppose, though if reckoned to be bad enough to destroy the Kolokotronis government it's going to be an interesting soup.

 

[X Oristos]

Foreign intervention by one or more of the Great Powers over some matter pertaining to the balance of power in the Eastern Mediterranean?

That sounds very plausible. For once, the western Powers will do their best to stop Russia from entering the war. Because if Saint Petersrburg joins, then it is game over. Britain, the German Confederation and even France, would be against further russian expansion and they would want the Ottoman Empire to remain a bulwark against Russia in the Balkans.

There is also the fact that the Kolokotronis government will fall. A war that ends with a stalemate and it is not a ruinous defeat wouldn't cause severe political turmoil. What would delegitimize Kolokotronis is a case where it seems that the Allies are doing fine and then the Great Powers draw a line in the sand: "Alright, you had your fun, the war ends now before the Porte loses its value to us".

 

[Daylight Savings]

That sounds very plausible. For once, the western Powers will do their best to stop Russia from entering the war. Because if Saint Petersrburg joins, then it is game over. Britain, the German Confederation and even France, would be against further russian expansion and they would want the Ottoman Empire to remain a bulwark against Russia in the Balkans.

There is also the fact that the Kolokotronis government will fall. A war that ends with a stalemate and it is not a ruinous defeat wouldn't cause severe political turmoil. What would delegitimize Kolokotronis is a case where it seems that the Allies are doing fine and then the Great Powers draw a line in the sand: "Alright, you had your fun, the war ends now before the Porte loses its value to us".

This seems the most likely. Greece is doing well. Britain and France say cut that out. Kolokotronis understands the gravity of the threat, but the people have the soldier's view and the papers which are hyping Greek success and when Kolokotronis walks away with modest gains the people feel betrayed. It could have long term consequences too if the people also place some blame on the western powers and they could move to elect a government that seeks better terms with Russia.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

tbf my favourite scheme is to put the Jews in Madagascar because its an island even tho it'd basically just be colonising it, but it would be interesting to see the Jews be put in Africa instead of Palestine due to different circumstances and the fact that we prob wouldn't see a hitler character pop up ittl. Would we get a hinged architect hitler?

Personally I’ve always found the Uganda Scheme/The Kenyan highlands as the most probable alternative since it was actually offered at one point. Plus it would displace the fewest amount of local people when compared to other options. Of course that’s assuming they stick to the highlands for the most part.

This seems the most likely. Greece is doing well. Britain and France say cut that out. Kolokotronis understands the gravity of the threat, but the people have the soldier's view and the papers which are hyping Greek success and when Kolokotronis walks away with modest gains the people feel betrayed. It could have long term consequences too if the people also place some blame on the western powers and they could move to elect a government that seeks better terms with Russia.

Yeah I could see the Greeks having to take “conciliation” prizes after having a successful campaign to retake Macedonia. Mind you I don’t think the possible/likely “consolation” prizes are anything to be unhappy about. The rest of the Aegean Islands, maybe Cyprus, and maybe Cyrenaica is still definitely a good haul for the war. They may even achieve some other small territorial gains like the Kerkennah islands off of Tunis which also has a lot of sponge to sell as well. But if you have to give up Macedonia when you’ve already won there because the British fleet is sitting outside Athens, it would absolutely be a bitter pill to swallow

 

[Lascaris]

That sounds very plausible. For once, the western Powers will do their best to stop Russia from entering the war. Because if Saint Petersrburg joins, then it is game over. Britain, the German Confederation and even France, would be against further russian expansion and they would want the Ottoman Empire to remain a bulwark against Russia in the Balkans.

There is also the fact that the Kolokotronis government will fall. A war that ends with a stalemate and it is not a ruinous defeat wouldn't cause severe political turmoil. What would delegitimize Kolokotronis is a case where it seems that the Allies are doing fine and then the Great Powers draw a line in the sand: "Alright, you had your fun, the war ends now before the Porte loses its value to us".

I'd say you are looking at the wrong great power. There was one power that sent an army to Constantinople to keep the Egyptians at bay in 1833. The same power threatened to intervene when the Bulgarian army threatened Catalca in 1912. The same power is not happy with the ascendance of Obrenovic to the Serbian throne and in the 1860s is introducing an ideology hostile to Greek interests, and considers Greece a British puppet anyway. And yup said power is Russia.

 

[Quinkana]

Personally I’ve always found the Uganda Scheme/The Kenyan highlands as the most probable alternative since it was actually offered at one point. Plus it would displace the fewest amount of local people when compared to other options. Of course that’s assuming they stick to the highlands for the most part.

Tbf if they actually do that the chances of Kenya being remembered as 'the other majority white nation of Africa' is quite high. Not that wouldn't happen with Madagascar if that happened but you know what I mean. But an African Israel is a cool concept in general, and it's defo something that I defo wanna see happen.

I'd say you are looking at the wrong great power. There was one power that sent an army to Constantinople to keep the Egyptians at bay in 1833. The same power threatened to intervene when the Bulgarian army threatened Catalca in 1912. The same power is not happy with the ascendance of Obrenovic to the Serbian throne and in the 1860s is introducing an ideology hostile to Greek interests, and considers Greece a British puppet anyway. And yup said power is Russia.

I think the possibility that most of the great powers just trying to prevent the 1870s war from happening is very plausible as they would wanna make money and have more direct client states as opposed to Serbia and Greece.

I wonder the course of Bulgaria ittl. Considering they're a lot more anti russian due to the ittl Crimean war and the such would Bulgaria be more pro British?

 

[X Oristos]

There are two reasons why I very much doubt that Greece will try to get even an uninhabited rock at the Read Sea. The main reason is that it Egypt has aspirations for the Rea Sea. In TTL Egypt is a cornerstone of greek foreign policy: they need to have if not a friendly Egypt then at the very least a neutral one. Egypt is both a regional rival of the Ottomans and at the same time controls Suez. Lastly, I expect Greece to have a close economic relationship with Egypt as in OTL, with greek communities involved in trade and banking.

The second argument is that even though Greece has a larger and more modern merchant fleet, I don't think there will be a lot of greek ships plying the Red Sea. The 19th century greek shipowners focused on the Mediterranean and more specifically the routes connecting the east mediterranean markets with Marseille, Livorno, Trieste and London. Under this light, a coaling station in Benghazi is useful for hauling egyptian cotton to Marseille but a coaling station in the Dahlak Archipelago doesn't serve any purpose.

I'd say you are looking at the wrong great power. There was one power that sent an army to Constantinople to keep the Egyptians at bay in 1833. The same power threatened to intervene when the Bulgarian army threatened Catalca in 1912. The same power is not happy with the ascendance of Obrenovic to the Serbian throne and in the 1860s is introducing an ideology hostile to Greek interests, and considers Greece a British puppet anyway. And yup said power is Russia.

Indeed from this point onwards and with the birth of Panslavism, Russia is the one Great Power that is the most hostile to greek interests. This development will certainly have adverse effects to greek foreign policy, but also noticeable positive ones: Greece will drift closer to Britain.

Yeah I could see the Greeks having to take “conciliation” prizes after having a successful campaign to retake Macedonia. Mind you I don’t think the possible/likely “consolation” prizes are anything to be unhappy about. The rest of the Aegean Islands, maybe Cyprus, and maybe Cyrenaica is still definitely a good haul for the war. They may even achieve some other small territorial gains like the Kerkennah islands off of Tunis which also has a lot of sponge to sell as well. But if you have to give up Macedonia when you’ve already won there because the British fleet is sitting outside Athens, it would absolutely be a bitter pill to swallow

Indeed and that's why the recent acquisition of the Dodecanese is important: the Ottomans in contrast to the OTL cannot properly project naval power in east Mediterranean. To do so, they would need at least double their OTL navy, with having one strong fleet at the Straits and another in southern Anatolia e.g. Antalya. So they would either need to double their OTL GDP or just protect the Straits.

Having said that, I don't think we will see a greek interest over the Kerkennah islands. They have lots and lots of sponges and the sea around it is an excellent fishery - or at least what is considered excellent in fish-poor Mediterranean. But it won't be viewed favorably in Italy and potentially also in France. It is stepping again on too many toes. When Greeks need all their diplomatic capital to press their claims when it matters to them, I doubt they will try to grab the Kerkennah.

 

[Spatharios]

A One Year War also indicates a certain level of resilience on both sides, and especially for Greece that would be a big departure from OTL

 

[X Oristos]

A One Year War also indicates a certain level of resilience on both sides, and especially for Greece that would be a big departure from OTL

Exactly! In contrast, the OTL Franco-Prussian War lasted 6 months, the Austro-Prussian 5 weeks, the Franco-Austrian 2,5 months.

 

[Wertmon505]

This seems the most likely. Greece is doing well. Britain and France say cut that out. Kolokotronis understands the gravity of the threat, but the people have the soldier's view and the papers which are hyping Greek success and when Kolokotronis walks away with modest gains the people feel betrayed. It could have long term consequences too if the people also place some blame on the western powers and they could move to elect a government that seeks better terms with Russia.

Honestly, as others have mentioned, it may be any one of the major powers with interest in the region. Minor powers doing well enough to shift the status quo, even if going from mildly favorable to slightly unfavorable would be enough to get the Greeks to be told to stop. From the previous war no-one wants the status quo altered, especially by minor powers the others see as French/British/Russian puppets.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Having said that, I don't think we will see a greek interest over the Kerkennah islands. They have lots and lots of sponges and the sea around it is an excellent fishery - or at least what is considered excellent in fish-poor Mediterranean. But it won't be viewed favorably in Italy and potentially also in France. It is stepping again on too many toes. When Greeks need all their diplomatic capital to press their claims when it matters to them, I doubt they will try to grab the Kerkennah.

Personally I think that’s likely as well, I only mentioned it because in this scenario I’m not sure how much “conciliation” the Greeks might need and the islands are relatively worth little in the big picture. I could maybe see it being thrown into the pot to get the Greeks to leave Macedonia, particularly if the Greek Navy has already landed there. But I doubt the Greeks go anywhere near Tunisia because they don’t want to anger any other major powers, so it’s likely never considered.

 

[Hastings]

Yeah, I *really* doubt they get a base in the Kerkennah islands. Why would anyone want them sticking their noses near the chock point of the Mediterranean. Personally I doubt even Cyrenaica at least for a while is likely since the Greeks will be much more concerned about even minor gains back home.

In terms of the 1 Year War (incidentally the 1877-78 war lasted 10 months!), the Ottomans will probably not do too badly, but I could see them tending to be ground down given their debt and would guess a lower-quality army, though Greece may struggle to gain centers like Thessalonica. I think a Russian intervention is likely, both because pan-Slavism's day is starting to come and Russia had bad habit of getting jealous whenever a Balkan power did too well and started looking toward Constantinople.

I think a likely scenario is Greece gains Lesbos, Limnos, and maybe Thasos and Samothraki as well as Cyprus. Then some relatively minor gains on land that leave the line of mountains guarding Thessoliniki under Ottoman control and don't go to far into Albania. Maybe Kozani, Kastoria, Korce and their environs. Something like this:

For the other powers, I think Serbia and Montengro gain the lands they did in 1878 OTL, plus Serbia gains left bank of Drina and a bit more around Nis (basically gets more, because its role is bigger than 1878 plus already has de jure independence). I think Bulgaria likely becomes independent as Russia's 'reward' for its part in settling things. Especially since there will inevitably be massacres of Bulgarians by Ottoman forces. However, I think it would be confined north of the Balkan Mountains, no Sofia and no Eastern Rumelia. Romania gains Dobruja. I don't think you've said what happened with Wallachia/Moldavia, but would guess they unify now if they haven't already. Maybe something like this for the peace:

 

[Duke of Orlando]

Yeah, I *really* doubt they get a base in the Kerkennah islands. Why would anyone want them sticking their noses near the chock point of the Mediterranean. Personally I doubt even Cyrenaica at least for a while is likely since the Greeks will be much more concerned about even minor gains back home.

In terms of the 1 Year War (incidentally the 1877-78 war lasted 10 months!), the Ottomans will probably not do too badly, but I could see them tending to be ground down given their debt and would guess a lower-quality army, though Greece may struggle to gain centers like Thessalonica. I think a Russian intervention is likely, both because pan-Slavism's day is starting to come and Russia had bad habit of getting jealous whenever a Balkan power did too well and started looking toward Constantinople.

I think a likely scenario is Greece gains Lesbos, Limnos, and maybe Thasos and Samothraki as well as Cyprus. Then some relatively minor gains on land that leave the line of mountains guarding Thessoliniki under Ottoman control and don't go to far into Albania. Maybe Kozani, Kastoria, Korce and their environs. Something like this:
View attachment 825537
For the other powers, I think Serbia and Montengro gain the lands they did in 1878 OTL, plus Serbia gains left bank of Drina and a bit more around Nis (basically gets more, because its role is bigger than 1878 plus already has de jure independence). I think Bulgaria likely becomes independent as Russia's 'reward' for its part in settling things. Especially since there will inevitably be massacres of Bulgarians by Ottoman forces. However, I think it would be confined north of the Balkan Mountains, no Sofia and no Eastern Rumelia. Romania gains Dobruja. I don't think you've said what happened with Wallachia/Moldavia, but would guess they unify now if they haven't already. Maybe something like this for the peace:

View attachment 825542

If it’s a relatively even war I think this is a likely out come. But if we see the ottomans collapse and the Greeks take significant Greek territory but be force to give it back, I can see them getting some more of Albania and/or Cyrenaica. I’m sure they’d trade either for more greek territory but if it’s an option between some form of “conciliation” prize or fighting Russia and the Ottomans simultaneously, I feel like the conciliation prize is the only real option. I also think it’s likely the Greeks go to Cyrenaica even if they have to intention to keep it so they can secure their flanks so to speak. They don’t want ottoman ships from Benghazi hitting the mainland or the islands while the rest of the navy is preventing ottoman troops from crossing the Bosporus.

 

[Lascaris]

If it’s a relatively even war I think this is a likely out come. But if we see the ottomans collapse and the Greeks take significant Greek territory but be force to give it back, I can see them getting some more of Albania and/or Cyrenaica. I’m sure they’d trade either for more greek territory but if it’s an option between some form of “conciliation” prize or fighting Russia and the Ottomans simultaneously, I feel like the conciliation prize is the only real option. I also think it’s likely the Greeks go to Cyrenaica even if they have to intention to keep it so they can secure their flanks so to speak. They don’t want ottoman ships from Benghazi hitting the mainland or the islands while the rest of the navy is preventing ottoman troops from crossing the Bosporus.

I doubt Greece would want much more of Albania in the first place, it has secured the majority ethnic Greek areas already. What I would question is how Albanian nationalism is evolving TTL, specifically if the pro-Greek factions who even proposed a dual monarchy are getting any more tract TTL. After all a Greece mostly uninterested in Albanian territory beyond the 1858 border is arguably a better option from the Albanian perspective than Italy, nevermind Serbia.

Then OTL you had things like major general Georgios Korzas, born in Corinth in 1872, minister in the Greek government in exile and killed while a hostage in the Dekemvriana of 1944. What is odd with the general? Why his father was Emin Agha of Korce (Korytza for the Greeks) an Ottoman army major, Albanian nationalist and prominent supporter of the union of Albania with Greece under a dual monarchy as a way to liberate Albania. So Emin had to escape Ioannina for Greece in 1864 where he was became Greek army major Emin Korzas (from Korce) and commander of the garrison of Corfu. Emin spent the next several years trying to convince anyone willing to hear in Greece to support the union, till he committed suicide after the successive deaths of 3 out of his 4 children in 1887. His son Besim, was baptized George along his mother by Aristotelis Valaoritis in 1878... and is the general.

To quote Emin from one of his memos to Trikoupis in 1880:

"What are we Albanians? Are we not children of Greater Greece? Haven't our blood and our hands contributed proudly in the creation of the Greek kingdom? If a large part of us, after changing our religion and being seduced by fanaticism, forgot their own origin and served the conquerors until today, did they therefore lose their own blood and do not belong to the Greek-Pelasgian family?"

How people like Emin fare TTL? You could argue it both ways. that they are more or less influential.

 

[lusitano 1996]

I doubt Greece would want much more of Albania in the first place, it has secured the majority ethnic Greek areas already. What I would question is how Albanian nationalism is evolving TTL, specifically if the pro-Greek factions who even proposed a dual monarchy are getting any more tract TTL. After all a Greece mostly uninterested in Albanian territory beyond the 1858 border is arguably a better option from the Albanian perspective than Italy, nevermind Serbia.

Then OTL you had things like major general Georgios Korzas, born in Corinth in 1872, minister in the Greek government in exile and killed while a hostage in the Dekemvriana of 1944. What is odd with the general? Why his father was Emin Agha of Korce (Korytza for the Greeks) an Ottoman army major, Albanian nationalist and prominent supporter of the union of Albania with Greece under a dual monarchy as a way to liberate Albania. So Emin had to escape Ioannina for Greece in 1864 where he was became Greek army major Emin Korzas (from Korce) and commander of the garrison of Corfu. Emin spent the next several years trying to convince anyone willing to hear in Greece to support the union, till he committed suicide after the successive deaths of 3 out of his 4 children in 1887. His son Besim, was baptized George along his mother by Aristotelis Valaoritis in 1878... and is the general.

To quote Emin from one of his memos to Trikoupis in 1880:

"What are we Albanians? Are we not children of Greater Greece? Haven't our blood and our hands contributed proudly in the creation of the Greek kingdom? If a large part of us, after changing our religion and being seduced by fanaticism, forgot their own origin and served the conquerors until today, did they therefore lose their own blood and do not belong to the Greek-Pelasgian family?"

How people like Emin fare TTL? You could argue it both ways. that they are more or less influential.

A dual monarchy would be awsome , i dindt even know that was a thing , you learn every day i guess.

 

[Duke of Orlando]

I doubt Greece would want much more of Albania in the first place, it has secured the majority ethnic Greek areas already. What I would question is how Albanian nationalism is evolving TTL, specifically if the pro-Greek factions who even proposed a dual monarchy are getting any more tract TTL. After all a Greece mostly uninterested in Albanian territory beyond the 1858 border is arguably a better option from the Albanian perspective than Italy, nevermind Serbia.

Then OTL you had things like major general Georgios Korzas, born in Corinth in 1872, minister in the Greek government in exile and killed while a hostage in the Dekemvriana of 1944. What is odd with the general? Why his father was Emin Agha of Korce (Korytza for the Greeks) an Ottoman army major, Albanian nationalist and prominent supporter of the union of Albania with Greece under a dual monarchy as a way to liberate Albania. So Emin had to escape Ioannina for Greece in 1864 where he was became Greek army major Emin Korzas (from Korce) and commander of the garrison of Corfu. Emin spent the next several years trying to convince anyone willing to hear in Greece to support the union, till he committed suicide after the successive deaths of 3 out of his 4 children in 1887. His son Besim, was baptized George along his mother by Aristotelis Valaoritis in 1878... and is the general.

To quote Emin from one of his memos to Trikoupis in 1880:

"What are we Albanians? Are we not children of Greater Greece? Haven't our blood and our hands contributed proudly in the creation of the Greek kingdom? If a large part of us, after changing our religion and being seduced by fanaticism, forgot their own origin and served the conquerors until today, did they therefore lose their own blood and do not belong to the Greek-Pelasgian family?"

How people like Emin fare TTL? You could argue it both ways. that they are more or less influential.

It’s very true you can argue it both ways. Personally though I think with the Greeks greater success ITTL they might be open to a reconciliation with the Albanians to a degree. It’s easier to ignore past hurts when your children and grandchildren have never truly experienced it. And the Greeks success makes them an attractive horse to bet on for the Albanians. A personal union keeping them separate but united could have a lot of appeal to big tent Pan Hellenists. Particularly is the Greeks help the Albanians in their eventual war for independence. It would likely start as a way to hurt the ottomans but it might turn into more of a bonding friendship moment.

Plus for a King interested in reviving the Empire, having two crowns lends you a lot more legitimacy to that title than only one.

 

[cmakk1012]

I doubt Greece would want much more of Albania in the first place, it has secured the majority ethnic Greek areas already. What I would question is how Albanian nationalism is evolving TTL, specifically if the pro-Greek factions who even proposed a dual monarchy are getting any more tract TTL. After all a Greece mostly uninterested in Albanian territory beyond the 1858 border is arguably a better option from the Albanian perspective than Italy, nevermind Serbia.

Then OTL you had things like major general Georgios Korzas, born in Corinth in 1872, minister in the Greek government in exile and killed while a hostage in the Dekemvriana of 1944. What is odd with the general? Why his father was Emin Agha of Korce (Korytza for the Greeks) an Ottoman army major, Albanian nationalist and prominent supporter of the union of Albania with Greece under a dual monarchy as a way to liberate Albania. So Emin had to escape Ioannina for Greece in 1864 where he was became Greek army major Emin Korzas (from Korce) and commander of the garrison of Corfu. Emin spent the next several years trying to convince anyone willing to hear in Greece to support the union, till he committed suicide after the successive deaths of 3 out of his 4 children in 1887. His son Besim, was baptized George along his mother by Aristotelis Valaoritis in 1878... and is the general.

To quote Emin from one of his memos to Trikoupis in 1880:

"What are we Albanians? Are we not children of Greater Greece? Haven't our blood and our hands contributed proudly in the creation of the Greek kingdom? If a large part of us, after changing our religion and being seduced by fanaticism, forgot their own origin and served the conquerors until today, did they therefore lose their own blood and do not belong to the Greek-Pelasgian family?"

How people like Emin fare TTL? You could argue it both ways. that they are more or less influential.

The one downside to this pretty awesome idea is that if it goes through Serbia and Greece will be an eventual collision course.

 

[Damian0358]

The one downside to this pretty awesome idea is that if it goes through Serbia and Greece will be an eventual collision course.

One could make the argument though that with Serbia getting the territories it wanted in Northern Albania per Ilija Garašanin' Načertanije ("For the present, the only [sea ]route possible[ as to provide Serbia a port and free its foreign trade from Austrian hands] is the one which leads through Shkodër to Ulcinj..."), that'd also inevitably cause a rise of anti-Greek sentiment in Albania, akin to developments seen in the period OTL which eventually manifested itself in the Kararname, which advocated for maintaining the continuity of Albanian territorial integrity (thus supporting the Ottoman Empire against Serbia, Greece and Bulgaria).

Following on what Lascaris pitched, it's probable that Serbia would be supportive of a union between Albania and Greece as a further means of ensuring the cooperation between all three of them, since if the Albanians turn on Serbia, they'd likely do the same with Greece. After all, per OTL, in this period Garašanin was supportive of Albanian independence, with a state between the Drin and Aoös rivers, and working with Albanians willing to cooperate with them. For all we know, the mentality of "Always Greater Albania" could be nipped in the bud, and in post-independent Albanian narratives, the Serbs are framed as brothers just as much as the Greeks (which in turn could incentivize policies on Serbia's end that would be less detrimental to the local Albanian populations, unlike OTL).

The Pelasgian origin theory taking hold in Albania (jumping off that Emin Korzas quote) instead of the Illyrian origin theory would similarly shape political perceptions, because part of the reason why the latter took hold was to reframe historical population changes from "The Slavic people migrated in, got pushed back, and allowed us Albanians to move in" to "We Illyrians got pushed back by the Slavic barbarians, and we returned to our rightful land once they themselves were pushed back" (which would later be "no u"d by the Serbs by claiming they were always in the Balkans). Tying in with Greece might affirm the Pelasgian theory and impact Serbo-Albanian relations further that way, by removing that historical rivalry angle that the Illyrian theory has embedded. And before you say it, I am implying the Pelasgian theory can be altered to not just be a facsimile of the Illyrian theory, by emphasizing its ties to Ancient Greece.

 

[Zealot]

Nice to see you back, Earl Marshall. Don't worry about long hiatuses: real life obligations are ahead, and the quality of your TL makes the wait worth it.

Regarding the TTL course of events, I find it very interesting that you raise the possibility of "a useful defeat in time": indeed, many nations learned more from setbacks and defeats (Russia in the Crimean War, Japan with the Perry expedition, somehow Spain after the loss of Cuba...). Even Greece had its own hard learning with the defeat in the war of 97 against the Porte, which ultimately served to make them aware that they had to carry out far-reaching reforms.

For all this, and given the correlation of forces between the TTL opponents, I share the opinion of other members that what we are going to see in the next posts is (unless the Greeks commit suicide facing the Ottomans alone in the open field) some sort of Pyrrhic victory, with the intervention of the great powers à la Treaty of Berlin, where what was won on the battlefield was lost due to diplomatic pressures in favor of the balance of power in the region. Russia will probably stop seeing Greece as a proxy and start pushing for any Greek gains to be offset by gains for its own proxies (Bulgaria?), or limited outright.

The medium-term effect in Greece will be evident: a Russophobic line of thought will emerge, but also distrust in the patronage of the Great Powers to achieve their goals. Perhaps we will see a Hellenic Self Empowerment Movement, with an even greater push for economic development. If I'm not wrong, the time is ripe for a further opening of Greece to foreign capital (the 1870s saw several financial crashes that forced investors to seek new investment opportunities elsewhere), and a liberal-leaning government is always going to be more favorable to open door policies.

My particular bet on the territorial issue in the short term, after the imminent victoria mutillata, points towards Cyprus, like the ITTL equivalent to Crete as a consolation prize: perhaps the reprisals or the intercommunal violence in the island spiral out of control and the Powers decide an autonomy without Ottoman troops on the island, with a Greek Christian as Governor General, who in the short term.....