Well i was talking this happening in the late 19th to early 20th century when mechanized farming is at an early stage and after all is a relief valve not a permanent solution to the problem of landless greeks and outcompeted farmers looking for work
Pride Goes Before a Fall: A Revolutionary Greece Timeline
- Thread starter Earl Marshal
- Start date
A minority-coalition state would face immense challenges from being composed of multiple highly heterogenous groups in a fragile balance of power. On top of this add the inevitability of revanchism from, in this particular example, the inland Arab state, probably backed by many other ME Arab powers and being much larger in population, and I’d say the state is doomed as soon as the colonizers pull out.
The Bulgarians are pretty much screwed by definition in a Greekwank. You can argue that OTL was a Bulgariascrew in how the Aegean and Macedonian borders shook out (not saying I agree necessarily) and these borders will be much worse from a Bulgarian nationalist viewpoint.
Denying Arab Syria a coast will cause a lot of revanchism, and I still suspect that the numbers favor them by a long shot.
This, honestly. Someone will get screwed and that's assuming they all don't.
good ideaI do agree a coalition state isn’t it ideal for a harmonious society but having an outside threat like a Syrian Sunni Arabic state is one of those things that brings people together. “We might all have different idea but we all are afraid of them together”.
Also nothing says Europe ever necessarily pulls support. Decolonization can look very different in TTL and nothing says it’s as complete as OTL
Honestly, that's entirely dependent on how involved GB and France get in the area and whether or not special economic zones that are colonies in all but name get carved out by them to get their parents and/investment and back
I'm guessing that by 1900 Greece will have control of Macedonia (southern portion centered on Thessaloniki), Cyprus, the remainder of the Aegean Islands, and maybe some parts of Thrace. I do think additional territory will be obtained via war, although not a war where Greece fights the Ottomans one on one, more likely that another power such as Russia starts a war and Greece decides to be opportunistic (or they, along with the UK, France or another Great Power ally start such a war).
Going forward, I also think that Greco-Russian relations will not be very cordial, seeing as Russia offered a smattering of territory to Greece, whereas the UK facilitated the transfer of the Ionian Islands and helped negotiate a treaty that gave the Southern Dodecanese, Epirus and Thessaly to Greece, on top of being Greece's largest trading partner.
So basically, the UK and Greece will likely be best friends for sometime going forward.
Going forward, I also think that Greco-Russian relations will not be very cordial, seeing as Russia offered a smattering of territory to Greece, whereas the UK facilitated the transfer of the Ionian Islands and helped negotiate a treaty that gave the Southern Dodecanese, Epirus and Thessaly to Greece, on top of being Greece's largest trading partner.
So basically, the UK and Greece will likely be best friends for sometime going forward.
Eh I think Greece would continue the balancing act between Russia and UK
Last edited:
That actually seems rather reasonable, it could enable Greece to maximise any potential gains from conflicts, treaties etc. without necessarily ruining relations with any of those two nations beyond repair.
While I definitely think that Greece will continue its high wire act balancing their two benefactor politically, I can’t help but wonder if Russia might feel like it has some ground to make up. Right now the Brits have all the goodwill and political leverage in Greece. Even post war I’m sure the British will be held in very high regard for their assistance in the land grab and for all of the money they spend and invest in the country during the war buying supplies, expanding ports, and finishing the Corinth canal. The newly independent Greeks in particular will likely have a lot of love for the UK.
So Russia probably will feel some impetus to remind Greece that they’re a huge backer as well. Which could take a couple different forms. Maybe in the peace they get the Ottomans to cede a little more land to Greece. Maybe they sponsor a few universities and other Greek schools. Or provide very low interest loans to Greek Business men. Maybe they do something with Pontus. Wether it be as a puppet, as a Russian province with the Greeks their given very preferential treatment, or maybe even offered to Greece with a gurantee to protect it in the event of a Ottoman Invasion. The last one seems a bit unlikely but if it’s offered I doubt the Greek government declines regardless of how hard it would be to administer and keep. Even just a Greek Trebizond might actually be something the British agree too as well at the peace table because it keeps the entirety of the Persian trade route that’s been mentioned out of Russian hands. I’m not saying that’s likely or smart. Just things I’ve thought of. Regardless of the how I suspect that Russia will want and try to remind Greece that they’re just as good a benefactor as the UK.
So Russia probably will feel some impetus to remind Greece that they’re a huge backer as well. Which could take a couple different forms. Maybe in the peace they get the Ottomans to cede a little more land to Greece. Maybe they sponsor a few universities and other Greek schools. Or provide very low interest loans to Greek Business men. Maybe they do something with Pontus. Wether it be as a puppet, as a Russian province with the Greeks their given very preferential treatment, or maybe even offered to Greece with a gurantee to protect it in the event of a Ottoman Invasion. The last one seems a bit unlikely but if it’s offered I doubt the Greek government declines regardless of how hard it would be to administer and keep. Even just a Greek Trebizond might actually be something the British agree too as well at the peace table because it keeps the entirety of the Persian trade route that’s been mentioned out of Russian hands. I’m not saying that’s likely or smart. Just things I’ve thought of. Regardless of the how I suspect that Russia will want and try to remind Greece that they’re just as good a benefactor as the UK.
The last is not going to happen, Russia would not trade land to a state that wouldn't be able to defend it. As a matter of fact, I'd be confident that Russia would just annex it, both because of its importance in the Persian trade route, but also because Trebizond helped shape the legacy of the Second Rome, there's no way a state that prided itself as the Third Rome would want to give that up.
Oh I agree with the first part. I doubt they give it to Greece unless they were desperate for aid and I doubt even then. I suggest things I have as ideas but I don’t think are likely. I could see some form of puppet state solution though if Britain refuses to budge on Russia directly controlling the Persian trade route. Better a puppet than a continuous grinding war over it. Especially if the Russians decide to style it as a reward to the Greek volunteers in the current war.
What recourse will the British have though? Do they have a greater ability than Russia to continue a war that sees Russians holding significant Ottoman territory? I doubt the British can mobilize enough men to oppose the Russians and the Ottomans can't afford to.
If the Brits can get a handle of the situation in India quickly the game changes a lot. Realistically I doubt the English arm an Indian army so quickly after TTL’s Sepoy revolt but that’s doesn’t mean they can’t scare the Russians a bit with the threat of one. It frees up actual troops that are in India though. Plus the Royal Navy dominates the Black and Baltic Sea and seems to be able to raid without much fear of reprisal.
So even if the ottomans completely collapse, the Brits hold some cards. If the ottomans hold the Russians at some point which is likely they have even more.
Would the Ottomans sit around and wait for that to play out though? Their land is occupied and their soldiers are dying. I don't think British raids on Black Sea ports are going to convince them to keep fighting. The Indian army could even the playing field a bit, but like you said, even if the mutiny is quickly put down how soon will they be deployable?
formion
Banned
I think the current frontline will break: the Russians outnumber the Allies. Both sides are of rather low quality - the absence of the very competent french army is telling. Since neither side holds a qualitative edge, then numbers speak.
A major issue is the fact that the current frontline is in a muslim majority region. I expect both the population to suffer from the fighting and the area to be devastated. At the same time, the Bulgarians will suffer from the ottoman irregulars.
If the front breaks the next defensive line is north of Burgas along the Balkan Mountains and the hill range that reaches the sea.
A major issue is the fact that the current frontline is in a muslim majority region. I expect both the population to suffer from the fighting and the area to be devastated. At the same time, the Bulgarians will suffer from the ottoman irregulars.
If the front breaks the next defensive line is north of Burgas along the Balkan Mountains and the hill range that reaches the sea.
Probably the best possible outcome for Greece would a ruined Ottoman Empire, Russia getting Kars and a small independent Bulgaria North of the Balkan mountains.
This Bulgaria would allow in the future to distract Ottoman army while Greece takes Thessalonika and later "rescue" Bulgarians.
This Bulgaria would allow in the future to distract Ottoman army while Greece takes Thessalonika and later "rescue" Bulgarians.
how about a dukedome in trapezount with one of the sons of the greek king as duke. It could have the same rights as finland or aomething alomg the line to sway the English. The russians could settle all the russian greeks in there. Many lived near azov and in georgia.