Possible Superpowers of the 20th century

[iori]

Alrisght, so as we know IOTL the United States and the USSR, for various reasons were the Superpowers of the 20th century, and in the case
of the US, beyond.

So the question is; what other countries could have become Superpowers during the 20th century?


For simplicity sake a Superpower is defined as follows;
-Economic: Has a large economy that makes it an integral part of the global economy and/or is a global exporter/importer.
(ex: US, China, Japan, India)
-Political: Has a great degree of political influence internationally to the point of being able to get its position accepted and/or
is the 'guiding light' of other nations.
(ex: US, USSR, China)
-Military: Has a large, powerful military capable of either global power projection or projection into regions other than its own.
(ex: US, USSR, France)

 

[Lord Insane]

Hm, if you could get it to happen, an *EU that becomes a federation before 1999 could be one (probably some form of WEF for the most part), especially if it manages to include the UK.
Of course, strictly speaking that is a country being formed as a superpower rather than a country becoming a superpower, and it could be hard to pull off, but it would likely fulfill all three criteria.

 

[yourworstnightmare]

A real super power would have all three aspects, or rather the first two, since a strong economy and a strong military create political influence.

 

[Lord Insane]

A real super power would have all three aspects, or rather the first two, since a strong economy and a strong military create political influence.

Er, yes, that is what the OP says, is it not?

 

[Riain]

Only Germany had the industrial muscle to become a superpower in the 20th century, but its 30 year bid came to nought. All other contenders have major problems when it comes to "super" power.

 

[Arachnid]

As said a super-power requires all three, in the 1980's Japan was (and still is) stronger than the Sov Union economically but lacked the political influence and military power to qualify. Britain prior to 1970 was a political superpower (British Empire) and nearly a military superpower but was too weak economically.

I think a EU unified early enough to qualify is ASB. However a British Imperial Federation (UK, Canada, NZ, Aus, massive influence but not union with Africa) would qualify as would a China that butterflies away Chiang and Mao and rises earlier. A Germany that didn't lose two World War's but peacefully built a Mittle Europa would qualify as well. Japan, if it didn't get bogged down in China and then curbstomped, could be a Great Power and Regional Superpower but I don't think it could be a true Superpower without some massive disasters happening to everyone else.
In order of probability

1. British Imperial Federation (UK of GB, C, A, I and NZ)
120+ million people, massive resource base, influence all over the world thanks to legacy of Empire, Global power projection capability.
2. China
Under someone competent who manages Philippine (never mind Taiwan) growth rates it would be an economic superpower, the need to secure a resource base and possible opposition to West would translate into military and political sphere's.
3. Germany
Without World War's, could very easily secure hegemony in Eastern Europe and would qualify economically, question if it would have level of global influence required to be a true Superpower, not just a strong economy and big land Army.
4. Japan
Have them repeat the WW1 performance and avoid costly, losing wars and secure Korea and Manchuria (any more will bog them down). Then have everyone else exhaust themselves in conflict, very marginal.

 

[Blitzhund]

I'll list a few of alternate possible 20th century superpowers along with a very simplistic possible POD.

There, imho, should be a number 4 which is population. A superpower needs enough population of working age men (sorry folks but for most of the 20th century women had a more limited role in nation building) to keep the military/industrial complex going.

1) Ottoman Empire/Turkey - POD -> No Central Powers involvement in WWI, OE holds onto Iraq and Saudi.
2) Germany - POD -> Wins WW2
3) Brazil - POD -> Don't know. This is an extreme outsider, but Brazil has enough resources and population that if it had been better led and had more of a stable govt then maybe.
4) UK - POD -> Holds together the Empire under a more unified Commonwealth.
5) France - POD -> Wins WWI quickly (ASB? dunno) and extends colonial influence whilst building infrastructure.
6) China - POD -> Inspired leadership that didn't murder it's intelligentia. A murderless Mao?

Remote possibles:
South Africa?
Argentina?
India?
Canada?
Mexico?

 

[Arachnid]

Brazil is a possibility but Germany winning WW2 is ASB, much better for them to win WW1 or avoid it all together.
France is ASB as there simply aren't enough Frenchmen and while there were a lot of people in its colonial Empire these areas were very primitive and the French would never allow these areas to form a Confederation with them as they would be outnumbered within it. While Britain alone is too small to be a Superpower its just big enough after you add in the White Dominions. The only real "Frenchmen" outside France were the million or so in Algeria.

 

[iori]

France is ASB as there simply aren't enough Frenchmen and while there were a lot of people in its colonial Empire these areas were very primitive and the French would never allow these areas to form a Confederation with them as they would be outnumbered within it. While Britain alone is too small to be a Superpower its just big enough after you add in the White Dominions. The only real "Frenchmen" outside France were the million or so in Algeria.

France does'nt really need its colonial empire to be one, I mean France is a military superpower as it is, it still retains influence in parts of Africa and is among the top 15 economies, and that's with all the negative stuff that's happened to it.

 

[Xavier]

Assuming a real superpower status versus "just" a great power, any single European country is out due to a simple lack of people.

What might be possible with 20th C POD (some not nearly as easily as others though)
- British Imperial Federation, smallish for a Superpower at 120+M people but just might do it with it's worldwide presence. (adding South Africa would make it more powerful but would be quite troublesome) Quite posible IMHO.
- German Empire after a WWI wank, gaining Austria, Südetenland or even all of Czechia, and either as member states or as vassals, Belgium and The Netherlands. (up to 140M-150M people) also a tad smallish. Quite difficult to manage.
- Japan without the Pacific War, 220M people and a large economy with Korea and Formosa. Manchukuo if it becomes part of the Japanese Empire or stays a close vassal would add about another 100M, a powerful Superpower if the Japanese can keep the Koreans happy.(and as long as the sea lanes stay open) Possible but not too likely I think.
-China after a Nationalistic victory and with a capitalist economy would be as rich as Europe or the USA with just a quarter of the per capita GNP. Add one fifth of the world population and you have an insanely strong superpower. Doable I'd say, though there would probably be huge differences in wealth between different provinces.
- India with a faster economic development after independence. doable-ish but not easy.
- A European Federation of any kind. Basically almost happened if not for a nationalistic feeling French Parliament in the fifties. (EDC & EPC) A later death of Stalin, longer Korean War or an isolationist post-war USA just might have done the trick.

Everyone else is too small, to poor and too divided.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Defence_Community

 

[Arachnid]

While we all agree with the three tests I set the boundaries at:

Economic
At least 10% of World GDP under control (e.g. Warsaw Pact counts towards USSR in OTL)

Military
Global Power Projection Capability (Victorious Germany doesn't just need a super Heer, it needs to be able to intervene decisively on the other side of the globe)

Political
Significant number of other countries look to it for leadership (e.g. Imperial Federation keeping "independent" African states under its wing), a degree of cultural power (no one watches Lithuanian films, people outside home market do watch Chinese films).

 

[Typo]

Germany, England, Russia, USA

Any other power is pretty ASBish

 

[Coyote Knight]

If Canada kept the military complex we had immediately following WWII, we could've been pretty up there.

 

[Arachnid]

No it wouldn't 30 or 40 million people (even Canadians) cannot compete with the US, China or the Warsaw Pact.

 

[iori]

No it wouldn't 30 or 40 million people (even Canadians) cannot compete with the US, China or the Warsaw Pact.

Actually, it could've become a sui generis Superpower, just not the kind that coud hold it's own in WWIII.

Military:
Independent, strong military with trans-regional reach.

Economic:
Canada has ALOT of resources it does'nt exploit, add in making them a major financial hub and a few other factors and you get a strong economy that affects the global economy.

Political:
Set them up as perhaps the 'leader of the unaligned world', and you get Canada having alot of influence acros the globe.

 

[Arachnid]

Actually, it could've become a sui generis Superpower, just not the kind that coud hold it's own in WWIII.

Military:
Independent, strong military with trans-regional reach.

Economic:
Canada has ALOT of resources it does'nt exploit, add in making them a major financial hub and a few other factors and you get a strong economy that affects the global economy.

Political:
Set them up as perhaps the 'leader of the unaligned world', and you get Canada having alot of influence acros the globe.

No. Canada can be a Great Power and under the 19th Century definition it is, but a Superpower is something different.

Military:
A population of max 40/50 million (with a POD after 1900) cannot support a sufficient global reach to qualify as Superpower, Britain and France can't in OTL, despite trying hard.

Economic:
Using those resources, more people and better economic management could make Canada richer than OTL but it couldn't catuplt it into the same league as China (in 20205), the US or the Warsaw Pact.

Political:
Least likely, simply put Canada is too Rich, too Northern, too close to America and Britain (physically and socially) and most importantly too White. India and Uganda aren't going to look to Canada for that leadership role in 1960.

While we all like a Canada-wank to get it to be a Superpower you need a POD way before 1900 and at least 100 million Canadians, plus significant overseas interests (the Caribbean doesn't count).

 

[Coyote Knight]

Actually, it could've become a sui generis Superpower, just not the kind that coud hold it's own in WWIII.

Military:
Independent, strong military with trans-regional reach.

Economic:
Canada has ALOT of resources it does'nt exploit, add in making them a major financial hub and a few other factors and you get a strong economy that affects the global economy.

Political:
Set them up as perhaps the 'leader of the unaligned world', and you get Canada having alot of influence acros the globe.

Beat me to the punch, Iori.

No. Canada can be a Great Power and under the 19th Century definition it is, but a Superpower is something different.

Military:
A population of max 40/50 million (with a POD after 1900) cannot support a sufficient global reach to qualify as Superpower, Britain and France can't in OTL, despite trying hard.

Economic:
Using those resources, more people and better economic management could make Canada richer than OTL but it couldn't catuplt it into the same league as China (in 20205), the US or the Warsaw Pact.

Political:
Least likely, simply put Canada is too Rich, too Northern, too close to America and Britain (physically and socially) and most importantly too White. India and Uganda aren't going to look to Canada for that leadership role in 1960.

While we all like a Canada-wank to get it to be a Superpower you need a POD way before 1900 and at least 100 million Canadians, plus significant overseas interests (the Caribbean doesn't count).

I'm not saying Canada could be a superpower, but it certainly could've been a great enough power to use its influence around the world. We squandered an excellent opportunity.

 

[iori]

No. Canada can be a Great Power and under the 19th Century definition it is, but a Superpower is something different.

The examples I sighted were'nt the only countries that fit their respective descriotion, true Canada, without a Pre-1900 PoD is never going to be a normal Superpower, but it can theoretically fit the definitions, in other words it could be a superpower that is'nt a superpower.

 

[jkay]

My Hitler's Republiic TL is one where Germany becomes a superpower in WWII. though it hasn't yet gone so far.

Haven't we seen a couple of plausible TLs where China does far better?

India and Brazil have the population to be superpower-class, though I can't remember any TLs for them (hmm...).

 

[Arachnid]

it can theoretically fit the definitions, in other words it could be a superpower that is'nt a superpower.

No it can't a Superpower, as opposed to a Great Power or Regional Power or even a Hyperpower is a particular International Relations concept. And it has a definition. Which Canada doesn't fit.

"a country that has the capacity to project dominating power and influence anywhere in the world, and sometimes, in more than one region of the globe at a time, and so may plausibly attain the status of global hegemon"
Professor Alice Miller.

Your OP is for Possible Superpower's, Canada is not one of them unless as part of a NAU or Imperial Federation. It fails of the Economic, its never going to be a Top 3 economy, there simply aren't enough Canadians. It fails on the Military, it lacks the Global Power Projection capability and can't afford to acquire it due to its Economy. Political, its lacks the web of Political influence due to history (no former Colonial Empire) and can't acquire one due to Economic and Military weakness.