Poor little Belgium - no escape from Antwerp

[Askanas]

Little question, big consequenses: What would have happened if the Belgians (the Army, King Albert I and his government) had not escaped from Antwerp (6-7 October 1914). How would this change politics in occupied Belgium? Would Germany annex parts of Belgium. And what would happen to Belgian-Congo?

I whould guess Albert I whould stay king, but Flanders and Wallonia whould still be seperated (like Austria-Hungary 1867). The Germans whould annex Belgium east oft the river Meuse, but after the war to keep the neutral nations friendly. Congo would have to resupply the Germans in Tanganyika. What do you think?

 

[titulus regius]

Irrepective of the Belgian King etc not escaping in 1914, the territorial questions you pose would surely depend upon the outcome of WW1. I doubt whether Albert's capture would have much (if any) effect on the course of that war.

 

[Cook]

I think the fate of the Belgian-Congo would depend on what the Governor of the colony did once Belgium surrendered and whether Belgium signed an Armistice or not.

 

[Thalyr]

We could compare it to Leopold III in WW2, he was captured after the capitulation of Belgium. The goverment in exile declared him unfit to rule so he lost all his political power, it's likely they would do the same if Albert I was captured. This is not permanent, he would still be king, they don't need to find an heir or anything, but the Germans cannot force him to sign a treaty.

Leopold III was doing everything he could to protect Belgium, and since he didn't believe in an Allied victory that meant partly collaborating with the Germans. But in WW1 the Belgians were not defeated, so it's not likely Albert I would get desperate enough to negotiate. This is also the guy who stayed at the front while his goverment had fled to France and let his 14 year old son enlist as a private, I don't think he would betray his soldiers by begging for peace.

So if the Belgians can hold on to that strip of land the course of the war wouldn't change much. The Germans can annex as much as they want, the king has no power to make it legal and they would lose it all after the war.

What would happen after the war is a different matter. He would not be the hero he was and this will affect the politics of Belgium. It was thanks to him Belgium got universal suffrage, which helped to break the power of the (French speaking) aristocracy. But seeing how volatile the whole Flanders Vs Walloon situation is even today it's hard to guess what would happen. Maybe the Flemish movement is slowed down 10 years, or maybe they revolt and it gets sped up 10 years.

 

[Deleted member 1487]

Little question, big consequenses: What would have happened if the Belgians (the Army, King Albert I and his government) had not escaped from Antwerp (6-7 October 1914). How would this change politics in occupied Belgium? Would Germany annex parts of Belgium. And what would happen to Belgian-Congo?

I whould guess Albert I whould stay king, but Flanders and Wallonia whould still be seperated (like Austria-Hungary 1867). The Germans whould annex Belgium east oft the river Meuse, but after the war to keep the neutral nations friendly. Congo would have to resupply the Germans in Tanganyika. What do you think?

As was already stated, the government would not necessarily capitulate if the King is captured and cuts a deal. The Government would not be captured because they made sure to get out and not get bottled up in Antwerp. Assuming somehow the Germans close the ring (i.e. actually using their Ersatz divisions to close the ring around the city instead of throwing them away in Lorraine) and lock in the Belgian army, militarily things get interesting in the aftermath.
Do the British manage to reinforce the Belgian first and get trapped also? If so then the Entente is short a large number of soldiers. If not then they are a major problem for the Germans trying to siege the city, which means some Belgians can make it out.
Either way if the Belgians are not around during the Race to the Sea than there is a large gap in the lines the British and French have to fill. I don't know if the British would be on the spot and blow the dykes as the Belgians did OTL, because if not then the Germans have a lot more land to try and flank the Entente.

Most likely without the Belgians the Germans actually breakthrough at Ypres with their reserve corps and the Entente lines north of the Somme fold. The BEF is going to be trashed if it can even escape, while French aren't going to be as bad off, but will be missing a lot of territory and civilians now trapped behind German lines, with much of the former being industrial/critical ports. The British will have to keep more troops at home to defend against the fact that the Germans are now at the Channel Ports and there is a major public panic. Not only that, but with their large numbers of losses they will have less troops to commit to the fighting in 1915 and later and will be of lower quality, as the cadres that OTL survived the fighting at Ypres won't exist.

Furthermore the Germans now have lots of mines (coal, iron) that won't be near the front lines and destroyed so as to deny them to the Entente as a means of sneaking under German defenses. They can use these mines as well as captures farmland for their own uses instead of destroying them for safety reasons.