Poland wins in 1939

[Korwar]

More mobilisation, better communication between Polish forces and rainy weather could lead to victory. If muddy roads and better defence by Polish forces extends fighting for much more and the Germans are stopped after inital advance, then German fuel, machine and ammo supplies will seriously get limited, which in turn could convince French forces to invade and defeat weakened German forces.
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[sanusoi]

To but it bluntly, if the Polish Army had cracked open the German Panzers then most likely this could have happened. However, the whole scenario still has some floors in it.

A sudden Army Coup : Sorry Chris but the German Army still had faith in Hitler, even if he has screwed up.

Polish cavalry save the day and crush the supply line: Problem with that ia the German army was heavily armed with MG's during the Polish invasion. Unless you have cavalry ambush the supplies, ain't going to happen.

Germany accepting a peace like that: Well Germany would have still wanted a bit more then that, possibly a few extra towns and a DMZ.

Overall a good story but too many flaws within it.

 

[Redbeard]

The Finns indeed did fight very galantly and utilised their limited resources very effectively. When all that is said, it must however also be added, that they were very much aided by Soviet incompetence. By 1939 Soviet execution of military leadership was extremely crude. For instance artillery support could best be described as massing huge numbers of guns and then firing arbitrarily in the general direction of the enemy. That gave a nimble army not afraid of seizing the initiative like the Finnish army great opportunities. By early 1940 the Soviets had already learned a lot however, and the Finns had no chance of withstanding the final massive assault on the Mannerheim Line.

The Germans by 1939, although not on 1940 standards (actually Blitzkrieg had not been invented yet), were way ahead of the Soviets, and could not be expected to execute the same blunders. OTOH the Germans had to be very bold, as they needed the campaign decisively ended in a few weeks.

With a more complete Polish mobilisation and a more in depth deployment I would not exclude that one or more key German formations could be defeated and the German offensive bogging down. By 1939 the Panzer Divisions still did not operate in semi-independent Panzer Korps (a key element in Blitzkrieg) and a more co-herrent Polish defence thus could cause serious problems for the Germans.

In an attritional war the Poles alone will not stand a chance, but apart from perhaps the French launching an offensive at the sight of German trouble, I also wonder how the Germans will react to this. Well into the 1940 campaign Hitler tended to panic at signs of trouble and the German leadership in general apparently were shocked when France and UK declared war - and utterly un-prepared. For instance the artillery ammo stocks were depleted after the OTL Polish campaign, in a drawn out campiagn that would force the German army to dig in and leave what is left of arty ammo for defensive operations.

If the Poles have prepared big stocks of ammo and supplies in central positions that could provide an interesting situation (Poles taking Berlin?!), but more likley they also dig in and wait for news.

But anyway I simply don't think Hitler could survive anything but a quick and decisive victory in Poland. Nobody would be paralysed by his political or military successes, on the contrary any goose stepping Feldwebel could easily be brought to see how disastrous that man had been to Germany - having bluffed and failed...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

T By 1939 Soviet execution of military leadership was extremely crude. For instance artillery support could best be described as massing huge numbers of guns and then firing arbitrarily in the general direction of the enemy.

Gee, and here I thought extremely crude executions of military leadership took place in 1937

 

[Markus]

If the Polish Army is fully mobilized and if they are deployed behind the rivers running through central Poland, their chances improve considerably. But IMO not enough. They still lack sufficient airpower and mobility and are at a numerical disadvantage. Their only hope is to keep fighting long enough for Britain and France to go on the offensive. But that better happens soon, because once Stalin realizes that Britain and France have written off Poland he will attack. Game over!

In your scenario Poland not only stops the attacks of three german Armies, but also take a part of East Prussia. The latter would require increasing the polish forces there at least fourfold, but given the german air superiority even that will hardly be enough. Besides, the troops will be missed elsewhere. Defending the corridor is even harder. Danzig is firmly under german control, and all forces stationed in the corridor are at the wrong side of the Vistula and face a pincer attack by geography.

My guess, the campaign last a few weeks longer. After a quick thrust thought he undefended terrain the advance is stopped, the Wehrmacht reorganizes quickly, punches a hole into the polish lines and the war get´s into another mobile phase again or into a kind of super-siege of the area around Warsaw. A lot of german tanks(most are obsolete anyway) will fall victim to the polish anti tank rifles and the german ammo and fuel reserves will be closer to empty that just half empty when the campaign is over.



-Markus

 

[DuQuense]

@Markus

Given a longer Polish campaign, with the Germans burning more of their stockpile, it will take longer to rebuild, which will delay the start of the Western Campaign. In may of 1940 Germany had a window of good weather that greatly helped . Delay till June and a whole bunch of poor weather would have hampered the German offensive.

 

[Redbeard]

Given a longer Polish campaign, with the Germans burning more of their stockpile, it will take longer to rebuild, which will delay the start of the Western Campaign. In may of 1940 Germany had a window of good weather that greatly helped . Delay till June and a whole bunch of poor weather would have hampered the German offensive.

Exactly, as well as the French by June being much better prepared to take on the German onslaught. Deliveries from the bfactories and import were accellerating in May-June 1940.

Besides I wonder if German airpower would have had that great effect on formed Polish troops not already beaten by land forces.

The OTL Luftwaffe results were against enemy troops already in disarray by land troop action (1939, 1940 and 1941), but general experience from WWII and later show that undefeated armies in the field are difficult to directly impair by air attack. I would compare it to Napoleonic cavalry, against a wavering enemy it would be decisive, but against steady formations if would have little effect.

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Redbeard]

Gee, and here I thought extremely crude executions of military leadership took place in 1937

He-he - that will teach me to choose my expressions with greater care

But anyway I guess yoy could say that the doctrine was the same in 1937 - but the generals were then the enemy you fired in the general direction of - worked OK then...

Regards

Steffen Redbeard

 

[Tizoc]

Ahem. About too forward deployment of Polish forces - while it could be adjusted (meaning more units in Lesser Poland and north of Vistula, and less in Greater Poland) - it was unavoidable.

Why?

Simple - Polish High Command wasn't sure if another Munich wouldn't be pulled on them. Example: Polish forces deploy behind the great rivers. Germans invade, reach the Polish lines... and stop and call for a conference to deal with a "Posen and Corridor" problem...

Also, main ammo depots were west of Vistula. The most populated and industrialised parts of country aswell...

There are also other problems for Poles in 1939:
1. Unfinished battle-plan
2. Number of incompetent commanders (such as the commander of "Prusy" Army)
3. Compromised radio comunication
4. Bad logistics
...etc.