PLO takes control of Jordan in Black September?

burgoynewulfe

I've been doing quite the research for my upcoming graphic novel based around just this topic but as this has never been explored, as far as I could tell, my research fell short. At this point all I have is general ideas..
So as it stands my POD is: The Syrian Air Force is used to cover Syrian and Palestinian forces in Jordan's Black September crisis, when the PLO under Yasser Arafat attempted to overthrow the Jordanian monarchy.

What I'm curious about is:

*What would be the consequences of a "Palestinian state" in Jordan, does the PLO seize power in Jordan??
*How would this affect the War of Yom Kippur or any similar Arab-Israeli conflict?
*What would be the short and long term affects on the middle east; how would other Arab nations like Syria, Egypt, Lebanon, Iraq, and Saudi Arabia respond?

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Droman

Speaking as someone who grew up in Jordan, who's grandfather and various relatives served in the Jordanian military and has a sizeable interest in the history of the region post-1900...

I don't think it was a possibility for the PLO to succeed. I'm biased of course, but the Jordanian army was far better trained and equipped than the Palestinian feyadeen, and had demonstrated that at the battle of Karameh vis-a-vis the Israelis and in previous wars. The Israelis themselves were much more then and still are in preference of a Jordanian monarchy than a Palestinian republic (especially one that might turn revanchist), to the point where they (and the Americans) made their point very clear when the Syrians tried to support the PLO with Syrian armoured elements under 'PLA' command under the excuse of preventing a Palestinian massacre, only for the Syrians to never actually engage the Jordanians due to fear of IDF troop movements and convoy buzzing.

The Palestinians would have had to have several things swing in their favour, including an intervention by the Iraqi Army's 3rd Armored Division (stationed in Jordan after 1967 and quite sympathetic to the Palestinians), and for the Syrians to dare engage with both aerial and armored elements. As it was, the Jordanian army quite comprehensively defeated the Palestinians in piece-meal fashion and despite being ill-equipped to commit to urban and mountain warfare, with only cease-fires breaking up the consecutive defeat inflicted on them. The Jordanian army and air force beat back a Syrian expeditionary force, which was in part thanks to American/British/Israeli political support.

Yes, the Jordanians had to come to the negotiating table and HRM King Hussein had to treat the PLO far more as equals than he'd like due to sympathy towards the Palestinian cause and Nasser's patronage, but when Nasser died and when the PLO and their confederates broke the agreement he went right back on the attack and they still got kicked out of the country.
 

burgoynewulfe

Droman said:
Speaking as someone who grew up in Jordan, who's grandfather and various relatives served in the Jordanian military and has a sizeable interest in the history of the region post-1900...

I don't think it was a possibility for the PLO to succeed. I'm biased of course, but the Jordanian army was far better trained and equipped than the Palestinian feyadeen, and had demonstrated that at the battle of Karameh vis-a-vis the Israelis and in previous wars. The Israelis themselves were much more then and still are in preference of a Jordanian monarchy than a Palestinian republic (especially one that might turn revanchist), to the point where they (and the Americans) made their point very clear when the Syrians tried to support the PLO with Syrian armoured elements under 'PLA' command under the excuse of preventing a Palestinian massacre, only for the Syrians to never actually engage the Jordanians due to fear of IDF troop movements and convoy buzzing.

The Palestinians would have had to have several things swing in their favour, including an intervention by the Iraqi Army's 3rd Armored Division (stationed in Jordan after 1967 and quite sympathetic to the Palestinians), and for the Syrians to dare engage with both aerial and armored elements. As it was, the Jordanian army quite comprehensively defeated the Palestinians in piece-meal fashion and despite being ill-equipped to commit to urban and mountain warfare, with only cease-fires breaking up the consecutive defeat inflicted on them. The Jordanian army and air force beat back a Syrian expeditionary force, which was in part thanks to American/British/Israeli political support.

Yes, the Jordanians had to come to the negotiating table and HRM King Hussein had to treat the PLO far more as equals than he'd like due to sympathy towards the Palestinian cause and Nasser's patronage, but when Nasser died and when the PLO and their confederates broke the agreement he went right back on the attack and they still got kicked out of the country.
Click to expand...

As someone who grew up in Jordan and clearly knowledgeable on the subject, what do you think it would take to bring Syria and Egypt or even Iraq to fight alongside the PLO in overthrowing the Jordanian monarchy?
 

Droman

burgoynewulfe said:
As someone who grew up in Jordan and clearly knowledgeable on the subject, what do you think it would take to bring Syria and Egypt or even Iraq to fight alongside the PLO in overthrowing the Jordanian monarchy?
Click to expand...

The Syrians attempted to intervene, but I believe were scared off by the IDF's possibility to involve themselves in turn. The Iraqi presence required a detachment of the Jordanian army to watch them, so their immediate presence was countered. The Egyptians at this point in time were heavily embroiled in the North Yemeni Civil War supporting the anti-royalists (a fact which undermined their army in the Six Days War), so they wouldn't have been able to contribute a significant fighting force, certainly not if the IDF had anything to say about it.

You'd have to have a major confluences of events that don't seem likely in hindsight to have happened. Aka an Iraqi intervention first by their present forces and then the remainder of their military, which in turn would make the Syrians more confident in intervening more handily and then Nasser's Egypt to bring everyone to the peace table afterwards.

Such a domino effect would probably still bring in the IDF to some degree and might even involve the US and USSR naval elements in the Mediterrenean. It's possible that the PLO and their fellow fedayeen confederates could wind up the 'winners' after all this with Jordan as the nucleus of a Palestinian state, but they'd be ruling over a badly ruined and quite poor country that would be seeing an influx of transported Palestinian refugees from Syria, Iraq and elsewhere and still trying to recover the remainder of actual Palestine, if only the West Bank initially.

The PLO by and large was a very disunited body, with major Palestinian organizations existing outside it in competition and many smaller ones included within it being little more than gangsters operating under fedayeen credentials despite never having even fought an Israeli soldier.

Even if Arafat got his wish and claimed Jordan as the nucleus of a greater Palestine, he'd have a hell of a time trying to impose order on all these bastards, especially while trying to carry on the conflict with Israel, reigning in or accommodating the Bedouin natives and creating an actual nation-state.
 

burgoynewulfe

Perhaps if the United Arab Republic had succeeded in the 60s then by 1970 Egypt and Syria would be far more willing to fight along side the PLO in overthrowing King Hussein. But that opens up many, many more questions.. like how could the UAR have survived in the first place?
And what if Israel lost the six-day war?
 

Matt Wiser

There was also a very real chance of U.S. and British military intervention. When the Syrians crossed the border, the U.S. Sixth Fleet was beefed up, with two carrier battle groups and a Marine Amphibious Unit, plus two Royal Navy carriers east of Malta. The amphibious carrier USS Guam (LPH-9) and her accompanying amphibious ships were in Haifa Harbor on 19 September, ready to land Marines to head overland to Jordan. And the 82nd Airborne Division was on full alert, and leading elements of the division actually left Fort Bragg on USAF C-141s. The mission: airdrop onto Amman Airport and secure it for follow-on forces. The mission was aborted and the aircraft returned to base, but the division remained on alert until the crisis had passed.

The Soviets blasted the U.S. and Britain (naturally) and beefed up the Soviet Navy's Med Squadron to 20 ships and six subs; among the ships were three of their own LSTs with a Naval Infantry battalion. Only the Syrian defeat prevented their landing: the same went for U.S. forces.
 

Dathi THorfinnsson

What everyone else said above.

However, if the PLO DID somehow manage to take over Jordan, I imagine the Israelis might well say. 'Oooo, there's a Palestinian state, now. All you Palestinians can go home.'

It would give the Israelis cover for totally annexing all of the West Bank and Gaza. (At least in the Israeli government's mind.)
 
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