If the US abandons Taiwan to Communist invasion and acknowledges the PRC as the legitimate government (dunno how plausible that is), would this mean, without Chinese intervention, Korea gets united? What would happen after that, and what would US-China-Soviet relations look like as a result? Assuming this is even possible, of course.
Plausibility: Trading Taiwan for North Korea?
- Thread starter Tripledot
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Mao's justification of intervention in Korea to skeptical Politburo members in OTL: "Your arguments are based on good reasons." he said. "But all the same, once another socialist nation is in a crisis, we would feel bad if we stood idly by." https://books.google.com/books?id=vg4CuFmpkCEC&pg=PA145
I don't see any mention of Taiwan there...
I don't see any mention of Taiwan there...
The sole reason for North Korea's existence is to provide a buffer between China and American-dominated South Korea. If Korea was to be united, China would only agree to such a transaction if the neutrality of Korea was insured by all involved parties.
Well it likely wouldn't do their diplomatic reputation much good. At the end of the day whilst international relations are based on the advancement of national interests, no matter how fancily you dress things up, making such a blatant quid pro quo and abandoning an ally isn't going to look good. Would certainly make me think twice about trusting whether the US would honour their commitments in the future.
Without direct Chinese backing and indirect Soviet approval North Korea likely doesn't invade in the first place, and if that happens the US certainly isn't going to allow South Korea to invade the North. IIRC that's the reason they didn't provide with with tanks or heavy anti-tank guns as they were worried Rhee might try to do just that. The Soviets aren't going to like the idea of a US ally sharing a land border so close to their main Pacific naval base and slightly further away their Far East Command.
This is a scenario that's becoming increasingly implausible, not in the least because North Korea and the PRC are becoming increasingly hostile to one another. The PRC has said that, while they will support North Korea in a defensive war against a United States-sponsored South Korean invasion of the north, they'll abandon their support of the DPRK should they be the ones to start the war. I feel like the only way this would work is this - the United States and NATO abandon their support for the Republic of China (Taiwan) and recognize the People's Republic of China's claims to Taiwan, and in return, the PRC withdraws all support for North Korea outside of humanitarian aid. This, combined with assurances of non-aggression between the PRC and the NATO powers, would mean that NATO and South Korea can finally enforce their demands for more human rights and less nuclear testing on North Korea without the threat of China helping North Korea. Either North Korea is forced to back down; they go too far and start a war, either by making a declaration or forcing South Korea/the USA's hand, and without Chinese support North Korea is defeated (and maybe goes nuclear, but let's not go there); or a United Nations-sponsored invasion of North Korea begins in response to repeated North Korean human rights violations and threats of war.
An arrangement like this would probably strengthen Chinese-United States relations (at the cost of permanently catastrophucking Taiwanese-NATO relations), and the ultimate result would be a united, pre-1911 borders People's Republic of China, a united Republic of Korea under the South Korean government, an end to the Republic of China/Taiwan and strengthened PRC-NATO relations to an extent.
An arrangement like this would probably strengthen Chinese-United States relations (at the cost of permanently catastrophucking Taiwanese-NATO relations), and the ultimate result would be a united, pre-1911 borders People's Republic of China, a united Republic of Korea under the South Korean government, an end to the Republic of China/Taiwan and strengthened PRC-NATO relations to an extent.
I meant the PoD to be the Korean War, and that the US doesn't send the 7th Fleet to block the Taiwan Strait, tacitly giving permission to the PRC to invade Taiwan, in exchange for no intervention in the Korean War. Would the USSR allow the US to push up to the Yalu, and could closer relations between the PRC and US accelerate the Sino-Soviet split? Also, might a US recognition of the PRC prevent the most drastic of the purges?
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I can't imagine a scenario in which the Soviet Union or the PRC would give up a buffer with South Korea at this point in the Cold War, I'm afraid. Similarly, it's probably completely impossible for the allies to abandon Taiwan at this point, given that, at this time, almost everyone outside of the Comintern nations recognized the Kuomintang as the legitimate government of China. If the PRC withdrew their support for North Korea it would definitely compromise the relationship between the USSR and the PRC. Really, the way I see it, neither side would be willing to make such drastic concessions, because it left both sides at a disadvantage, the PRC and USSR moreso.