Plausibility of a neutral Romania during WW2

[solaris89]

On June 26, 1940 Romania was presented with an ultimatum to cede Besserabia and Northern Bukovina to the Soviet Union, or risk war. Apparently Carol II wanted to resist but was convinced by his cabinet and the German and Italian ambassadors otherwise. Following this, as well as the Fall of France in June 25 rendering useless the Anglo-French guarantees, the king broke his neutrality balancing act of the 30s and sought an alliance with Germany against the Soviet Union. This precipitated the Second Vienna Award, Carol II's abdication, and we know the rest.

Personally Romanian neutrality throughout the entire war is plausible, but highly improbable practically. I also can't see a good POD for it, but this is also not my field of expertise.

1. Suppose negotiations break down over the Second Vienna Award and Carol II takes a hardline stance on territorial changes; I don't know why Hitler wouldn't just give in, ignore Hungarian protests, and let Romania into the Tripartite Pact anyways due to the importance of Barbarossa.
2. Suppose Carol II maintains his neutrality policy; why would he, when there's the looming threat of a Soviet invasion in the future, as well as there being a possibility to reclaim the lands lost to the ultimatum?

Even if neutrality is maintained somehow domestically, further non-military cooperation would probably result in a Legionary coup, with a German airborne assault to secure the oil fields. And even if this is avoided, why wouldn't the Soviets just invade Romania anyways during the late stages of the war?

Feel free to correct any mistakes, as always.

 

[CaptainCalvert]

On point 1, Romanian oil was more important to Germany than keeping Hungary (fully) happy, so it is a bit surprising that OTL Romania couldn't get a better deal. But maybe having just ceded territory to one big neighbour and being worried about the possibility of a carve up between Germany and Soviet Union (as happened with Poland) a raw deal may have looked much better than no deal.

 

[Lalli]

I think that being pretty unlikely. Romania was just too important for both side and futhermore Germany needed Romanian oil. So it would be drawn to the war with way or another. Perhaps only way is that France doesn't fall and Germany would be stuck on the war but it still would need oil so not sure if even then Romania can be safe.

 

[LeonardWood6]

Possible, but highly unlikely. Romanian oil was higjly coveted by Germany. If Romania does not join then Germany probably invades them to secure the oil fields.

 

[Garrison]

I have to agree with the others this is very unlikely as Romanian oil is far too important to Nazi Germany and they were no respecters of neutrality.

 

[solaris89]

Possible, but highly unlikely. Romanian oil was higjly coveted by Germany. If Romania does not join then Germany probably invades them to secure the oil fields.

I have to agree with the others this is very unlikely as Romanian oil is far too important to Nazi Germany and they were no respecters of neutrality.

As I mentioned, if Romania managed to stay neutral somehow, a German invasion is highly unlikely; that would only unify the divided Romanian populace against them. Not to mention you can't exactly hide an incoming invasion, so the oil fields would probably be blown up before the Germans get there, rendering the entire thing pointless.
Intervention during a Legionary coup would be the approach; there would be no reason for Romania to blow up its oil fields in that case, and a paratrooper assault can be prepared relatively undetected.

Anyways, I've already established that it's highly unlikely; but it is probable, and my question is how does one make it likely / possible?

I think that being pretty unlikely. Romania was just too important for both side and futhermore Germany needed Romanian oil. So it would be drawn to the war with way or another. Perhaps only way is that France doesn't fall and Germany would be stuck on the war but it still would need oil so not sure if even then Romania can be safe.

If France doesn't fall then there would be no need for them to turn to the Germans for protection, and in that scenario they definitely wouldn't invade their only supply of oil. So I guess that's an answer, but not really the one I was looking for.

 

[Garrison]

As I mentioned, if Romania managed to stay neutral somehow, a German invasion is highly unlikely; that would only unify the divided Romanian populace against them. Not to mention you can't exactly hide an incoming invasion, so the oil fields would probably be blown up before the Germans get there, rendering the entire thing pointless.
Intervention during a Legionary coup would be the approach; there would be no reason for Romania to blow up its oil fields in that case, and a paratrooper assault can be prepared relatively undetected.

Anyways, I've already established that it's highly unlikely; but it is probable, and my question is how does one make it likely / possible?

If France doesn't fall then there would be no need for them to turn to the Germans for protection, and in that scenario they definitely wouldn't invade their only supply of oil. So I guess that's an answer, but not really the one I was looking for.

Yes but how coudl it stay neutral in the face of the political pressure Nazi Germany was able to apply after the Anschluss and the Munich Agreement? And why would they have to hide an invasion? Making it clear that its side with Germany or else would seem totally in keeping with Hitler's overall strategy.

 

[solaris89]

Yes but how coudl it stay neutral in the face of the political pressure Nazi Germany was able to apply after the Anschluss and the Munich Agreement? And why would they have to hide an invasion? Making it clear that its side with Germany or else would seem totally in keeping with Hitler's overall strategy.

You're saying a neutral Romania is not just unlikely but impossible, in your opinion?

 

[Garrison]

You're saying a neutral Romania is not just unlikely but impossible, in your opinion?

Not impossible, but unlikely enough that you can't just take it as given and it would take considerable changes elsewhere for it to happen, probably on the scale of no Munich Agreement.

 

[solaris89]

Not impossible, but unlikely enough that you can't just take it as given and it would take considerable changes elsewhere for it to happen, probably on the scale of no Munich Agreement.

I meant impossible after the Fall of France.
Genuine question, was my original post badly written / not very clear? I was pretty tired when I originally wrote it, but I was asking *how* a neutral Romania could remain, post-Fall of France, if not impossible.

 

[Garrison]

I meant impossible after the Fall of France.
Genuine question, was my original post badly written / not very clear? I was pretty tired when I originally wrote it, but I was asking *how* a neutral Romania could remain, post-Fall of France, if not impossible.

Probably on me for misreading it, but yes post fall of France there's just no chance. Germany is now dominant in Europe, the USSR is technically an ally, and the Winter War could hardly inspire confidence in the abilities of the Red Army. Add in the strength of the Iron Guard in Romania and they are going to align themselves with Nazi Germany if only as a measure of self preservation.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

Easy. Hitler dies in fall 1940 or winter 1941. Goering succeeds as Reichskanzler, and cancels BARBAROSSA (which he was opposed to, though he never dared say so to Hitler). No, I don't believe BARBAROSSA was "overdetermined". Hitler was by then wildly overconfident, as was much of the Heer. But there were lots of sensible reasons for not doing it, which much of the Heer also understood. E.g why start a second war when the first war is still raging? Why cut yourself off from nearly all oil supplies? Hitler's ideology pushed him to it, but Goering did not share Hitler's messianic ambitions for Germany.

And then Romania can stay neutral. Down the road... A true narrative would be a project I'm not going to do just for this. But quickly:

The Blitz continues, Britain holds out. Much of the Heer is demobilized. The US enters the war at the end of 1941. In heavy fighting, the US/UK defeat the U-boats and take all North Africa by the end of 1943. The USSR crushes Finland. In 1944, the US/UK grind down the Luftwaffe, and take Sicily, Crete, Sardinia, Corsica, and Rhodes. In March 1945, US/UK forces land in France and grind out a substantial bridgehead. Nearly all of the Heer is committed in France or the Med. In July 1945, the USSR launches a surprise attack on Germany through Poland, overrunning everything east of the Elbe, plus Thuringia, Bavaria, Austria, Slovakia, and Hungary. Germany collapses; the war ends.

And Romania has remained neutral through it all.