Plausibility Check: United Scandinavia

How plausible would a united Scandinavia be that forms between 1900 and 2000?

Is it possible or are there cultural differences that prevent any sort of union of Norway, Sweden, and Finland?
 
The differerences that would prevent a Nordic union are not cultural but political, mainly to do with foreign political and economic interests. Norway in this time period was oriented towards the West, traditionally being a fishing and sea trade nation, and thus will in the first decades of the 20th century see its interests aligning with Britain and her allies. Sweden was traditionally neutral since the 19th century and was very wary of getting into entangling alliances, sitting right between Britain, Germany and Russia. Finland, if it gains independence, would first of all be concerned with not being retaken by the Russians, and if threatened, would ally with anyone who promises it support against the East - from anyone who is positioned as Russia's geopolitical rival or enemy, that is.

So - in pretty much any scenario where the major powers of Europe find themselves at war against each other, these three Nordic nations would see their interests clash. As the politicians in each nation could see this also beforehand, in theory, it provides a simple rationale why putting an union together would be difficult. The main snag I can see is that Sweden, as the biggest nation, would have to be the prime mover in pushing for such a union, but then it is easy to understand that in this union, Stockholm would have to militarily guarantee Norway and Finland. That, especially for Finland and its relations with Russia, would be a very serious problem for upholding Swedish neutrality in any future conflicts.
 
There are no major obstacles, I guess, but there is always a number of minor squabbles (as mentioned above) that people get hung up on, and the political systems and people involved are not the optimal for achieving this.

One simple way would be modifying the Swedish-Norwegian union so the Norwegians feel content with it and stay, but that may have to happen before 1900 so their anti-union movement will not get too strong. And if that happens then there is a possibility for expanding it to encompass Finland.

There is Nordiska rådet, the Nordic Council, and there has been a passportfree area since long before the EU and Schengen, so we are not completely separate OTL.

Cultural - the Vodka Belt includes all three states. There is the same Lutheran background, but at least in Sweden very few are Christian today.
 
If you butterflied away the EU or just managed to keep the Swedes and Finns out of it maybe you could have the Nordic Council evolve into something closer to a political union.
 
There are no major obstacles, I guess, but there is always a number of minor squabbles (as mentioned above) that people get hung up on, and the political systems and people involved are not the optimal for achieving this.

Deep seated national interests, or traditions seen as such, are hardly just minor squabbles in terms of creating a union like the one proposed here. I believe, for example, that the policy of neutrality and staying out of major conflicts has been quite central for Swedish foreign policy since the early 19th century. Things like this tend to change glacially slowly. As it is, in 2017 IOTL Norway, Sweden and Finland are not all together in the same military alliance or the same political union. There are real historical reasons for this. In comparison to NATO and EU, the Nordic Council as it exists is an example of lower-level cooperation and it is be hard to see it grow into a real political and defence union. See what happened even with the proposed Nordic economic cooperation organisation, Nordek, in the 60s: it was torpedoed by outside interference and different national priorities.
 
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Devvy

Donor
All five Nordic countries are very similar culturally, even if the Finns have their own secret language.

But they have massively different foreign policies and military alliance. Denmark, Norway and Iceland are tied to the west and to NATO. Sweden just wants to be left in peace. Finland will hop in with anyone who will secure her independence from Russia.

Firstly, you need to ask "how united do you want the Nordics / Scandinavia to be"? If it's one country, then that's pretty difficult. If we are talking a Nordic Union, in the form of the EU, then that's more possible, as it's leaves room for just being an economic and semi-political union rather then anything that will outright jeopardise military or foreign policy aims. Indeed, a Nordic Union was very much on the cards in the 1950s and 1960s.

Anything more then that, and you need far closer Sweden-Finland relations. Years ago, I posited an initial scenario of a Swedish Prince becoming King of Finland after WW1, which led to far closer relations between the two, as that laid out ground for Sweden being a little more active in assisting Finland in later years. If Sweden isn't fully neutral then you have a base for aligning the interests of Den/Nor/Ice and Swe/Fin....which might be Nordic neutrality.

Suffice to say, it looks easy, but there's a lot of swirling currents and complexity there! :)
 
Maybe Germany had annexed Denmark?
If it had what becomes of the Faeroe Islands, Greenland and Iceland if the OTL World War One still happens and Germany still looses? I don't see Denmark being part of Germany tipping the scales.

If Denmark is included Scandinavia has a population 2.5 the size of Sweden. On the multiplication factor that would have made Scandinavia a force to be reckoned with. 1,225 SAAB Lansens instead of 450; about 1,500 SAAB Drakkens instead of about 600 for the Swedish AF; 800 Viggens out of 2,000 planned instead of about 320 out of 800 planned; and finally 500 Grippens out of 750 planned instead of 204 out of 300 planned.
 
any sort of union of Norway, Sweden, and Finland?
Deep seated national interests, or traditions seen as such, are hardly just minor squabbles in terms of creating a union like the one proposed here.
The one proposed is not defined, apart from the geographical extent. The Swedes, Danes and Norwegians were unable to adopt a common spelling in the mid-1800s, since everyone wanted to keep their own letters. That is a minor squabble if any, and then the Norwegians were unable to agree among themselves about their language, so they split even more. (Ivar Aasen is one of my heroes.)

Anyway, post-1905 Norway would not agree to a political union, but we have had a covert defense union since the late 1940s.
 
Don't ask me, I'm just throwing an idea as to why Denmark is not included in this Grand Union.
My guess would be that Greenland becomes a League of Nations Mandate to Canada, the Fareoes to the UK and Iceland would become independent on the condition that it's foreign policy was strict neutrality like Switzerland.
 
I guess for the reasons discussed above, we need to have an outside driver. In WW1 it could be the perception of Britain trying to cut off swedish iron ore, Russia bullying the Finns and Germany threatening Denmark.
A united defensive pact strictly neutral viv-a-vis the debacle going on in the South.
 
I don't know what the driver would be, but the POD seems to be preventing Norway breaking away from Sweden in 1905 and then Finland joining after it broke away from Russia.

Rather than a Scandinavian political and/or defence union, what are the chances of some sort of Baltic Union emerging between 1918 and 1939? It would consist of Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden to stand up to Soviet Russia and then Nazi Germany?
 
Rather than a Scandinavian political and/or defence union, what are the chances of some sort of Baltic Union emerging between 1918 and 1939? It would consist of Estonia, Finland, Latvia, Lithuania and Sweden
There were talks of something, but without some driving force the chances are small.
to stand up to Soviet Russia and then Nazi Germany?
Even if united, these states have comparatively small populations. A union might have resulted in them being left in peace during WW2, but that is not a certainty. They could have been occupied twice or thrice instead, or been partitioned.
 
There were talks of something, but without some driving force the chances are small.

Even if united, these states have comparatively small populations. A union might have resulted in them being left in peace during WW2, but that is not a certainty. They could have been occupied twice or thrice instead, or been partitioned.
I agree because IOTL the USSR occupied the Baltic Republics and made war on Finland anyway and in what I suggested they only had Sweden to back them up.

OTOH I think it would be a different matter with a United States of Scandinavia (USS) consisting of Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden if they had armed forces 5 times Finland or 2.5 times Sweden IOTL.

I don't have any information on the Swedish Army in 1939, but the Finnish Army according to Mollo had 9 infantry divisions and an independent cavalry brigade. That would translate into an army of 45 infantry divisions and 5 cavalry brigades. Also from Mollo the Finnish AF had 200 first-line aircraft of which 100 were operational, which would work out as 1,000 of which 500 were operational. Finally the Finnish Navy had 5 modern submarines which would give the Scandinavian Navy 25.

The USS would not be able to concentrate all of that force in Finland to deter the Soviets because some would be needed to defend Denmark and southern Sweden against a possible attack by Germany. However, it would make Finland a much harder morsel to digest making Stalin think twice or even thrice before attacking. It might make Hitler think a surprise attack on Denmark and Norway was less likely to succeed. Because even if the initial attack was 100% successful there would be Scandinavian Army reinforcements coming from Sweden to push the Germans out of Norway. OTOH the Germans and Soviets might launch a semi-joint attack on Scandinavia like they did on Poland with the Soviets occupying Finland and Germany occupying the rest.
 
I also think a United States of Scandinavia would not have run its armed forces down as much between 1918 and 1936 as the Scandinavian countries did IOTL. AFAIK the thinking was that, "We are too small to defend ourselves in a conventional war against a big country, i.e. German or Russia, so there is no point in maintaining effective armed forces." But a United Scandinavia while it would not have been strong enough to survive a total war against Germany or Russia was certainly big enough to give either of them a very bloody nose if they attacked.
 
AFAIK the thinking was that, "We are too small to defend ourselves in a conventional war against a big country, i.e. German or Russia, so there is no point in maintaining effective armed forces."
I think it rather was a generally more peaceful atmosphere in the later 1920s, coupled with limited finances and an ambition to focus on other sectors, that made the military prone to downsizing.
 
I think it rather was a generally more peaceful atmosphere in the later 1920s, coupled with limited finances and an ambition to focus on other sectors, that made the military prone to downsizing.
IIRC the Scandinavians believed that the "Age of Everlasting Peace" had finally arrived and that was undoubtedly a factor in their governments cutting back military spending as much as they did.

However, I still think the Government of a United States of Scandinavia would not have cut its military spending back as much as the individual countries did IOTL. If only because it had a long border with Soviet Russia.
 
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