I'm working on some TL's dealing with a tripolar world and I need a way to stop Japan from fighting the US, but keep Manchuria. What are the chances of Yamamoto and some other moderates pulling a coup against the far right military junta running the country?
Plausibility Check: Neutral Japan during WW2?
- Thread starter Lee-Sensei
- Start date
Hmmmm. I do not think it possible with WW2. Unless by some miracle the French hold and defeat the German attack. But at that point we are already talking of some other war.
The Japan by 1939 was so deep in China that getting out and salvaging their honor (as they understood it) is nigh impossible. BTW, IJN also had its own ideas.
The Japan by 1939 was so deep in China that getting out and salvaging their honor (as they understood it) is nigh impossible. BTW, IJN also had its own ideas.
Well, the problem here is that without overwhelming international influence (rendered impossible due to WW2 raging in Europe) the Japanese will not find any peace proposal of the Chinese acceptable. And vice versa.
Any delay for the Germans means no WW2. Germany basically fails economically (or as Saphronet says - 'Goes nope, can't do!') and again there is no WW2.
So if we go by the OPs premise, if you have a WW2, it is pretty impossible to keep Japan out of it, all other things being equal.
Perhaps Germany picks China over Japan, so they aren't drawn into the Anti Comentern pact, and stay out of the Axis?
Maybe. But they would still be mired in China, this time maybe even supported by the US, or UK at least, so able to last longer. Either way, not neutral. Maybe not taking part in European war. But warring against the Axis China as a part of Allies.
Sycamore
Banned
IMHO, it's no more impossible than a Neutral USA. The simplest way to bring about the outcome requested by the OP though, with a tripolar world in which Japan doesn't have to fight the US, but gets to keep Manchuria, would be for the Germans to exclude Japan from the Axis, in favor of KMT China. As such, the Empire of Japan ends up becoming a nominal partner of the Allies, in much the same manner that the Soviets were IOTL; and its Co-Prosperity Sphere (encompassing its occupied territories and friendly regimes- probably the majority of the Asian nations which break away from colonial rule, in the 'Yellow Tide' of Asian decolonialism, akin to the 'Red Tide' of Soviet Republics in Eastern Europe and Central Asia) ends up becoming a third side in the Cold War. Japan wouldn't be neutral, strictly speaking- but it's the best way to bring about the scenario which the OP wanted.
This, again plays into Japanese hands. They are counting on the war in Europe taking long time. It may change the timing, but will not change underlying dynamics.
That can be changed. A change in Japans internal politics is the less likely. On the Chinese side some sort of regime change within the Nationalists, or the Communists might lead to something. If either one collapses then the other might find a agreement preferable to continued war.
True, but if France is undefeated, then the seminal event the occupation of IndoChina is far less likely. Absent that the US is not going to instigate draconian trade embargos in 1941 & Japan can continue to focus on China.
IIRC, the Japanese only joined the war against the West when it looked like they were ready to collapse.
I think you are confusing Japan with Italy? Japan declared war in 1941 and the Allies weren't about to collapse then. Italy however declared war when France was collapsing and they expected the UK to sue for peace.
If Japan is able to continue buying oil and other strategic materials from the Western Europeans (particularly the Dutch) then their impetus for going to war in the first place is gone. Granted, America and Japan will still be on a collision course because of China, and depending on where Indochina lands the Japanese will also be set for conflict with the WAllies. However, this doesn't have to happen until after V-E day is declared and WW2 is over, thus having a neutral Japan in WW2.
After the war, the Japanese will be in the limelight internationally, and not in a good way...
After the war, the Japanese will be in the limelight internationally, and not in a good way...
To be precise, the Japanese only joins the Tripartite Pack because they thought that the allies we're losing badly. That's one of the critical steps towards the embargo.
thaddeus
Donor
"what if" Japan signed a pact with USSR before Germany did? an expansive trade and non-aggression pact supplying Japan with oil, etc.