Plausibility Check: Japan (temporary) Victory - Fu-Go-Ri Balloons

[Googolbyte]

I was reading about the Nazi’s Operation Bernhard: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Bernhard

The Nazis basically planned to send the British economy into hyperinflation by printing British currency on mass and dropping it over British cities

The Nazis weren’t able to complete this operation though as they lacked the planes to drop the currency over British cities, despite successfully forging large numbers of high quality British pounds & US dollars

The Noborito Research Institute is known by some for its attempt to send incendiary bombs using their Fu-Go balloons across the Pacific Ocean to the US, as one of the first examples of intercontinental weapons

However Noborito was also involved in various other experimental war measures including currency forgery

The flaw with Japan’s attack on Pearl Harbour was that the US’ strong economy meant they were able to rebuild the destroyed fleet rapidly

So what if the Japanese had instead used their intercontinental balloons to drop vast amounts of forged dollars over the US destabilising their economy to the point that they couldn’t afford a war with Japan

Would that be enough to tip things in Japan’s favour until they collapsed internally or to another opponent besides the US?

Japan could even start the campaign before their declaration of war since the act wouldn’t be considered a war crime or maybe even an act of war

 

[e of pi]

So what if the Japanese had instead used their intercontinental balloons to drop vast amounts of forged dollars over the US destabilising their economy to the point that they couldn’t afford a war with Japan

Would that be enough to tip things in Japan’s favour until they collapsed internally or to another opponent besides the US?

It's hard to crash an economy through counterfeiting without introducing a massive, massive number of bills. Shiploads, not balloon loads.

 

[CV12Hornet]

The Japanese did conduct counterfeiting operations on the Chinese yuan and produced billions of yuan, so there's some level of plausibility here. However, US banknotes were and are notoriously difficult to counterfeit; the Nazis had considerably more trouble with them than British banknotes. Add in the fact that the Nazis never produced anywhere near enough banknotes to crash the British economy, let alone American, and the aforementioned problems with delivering the notes, I would call it plausible to try but implausible to succeed.

 

[Googolbyte]

I suppose for the delivery they could do a ship load delivery to Hawaii during Pearl Harbour & turn Hawaii into an economic hazard

I’m surprised USD is hard to forge, doesn’t the US recognise old dollars as legal tender, which are also easier to forge. Japan forging old dollars would be much easier to develop countermeasures against (stop recognising old dollars as legal tender) but it’d be a stopgap until they can forge & deliver new dollars

I’m curious if anyone knows what success would actually look like here. It’s not like the British economy was in good shape with the expense of the war anyway but they still won

Does dumping a bunch of fake dollars into Hawaii & the American west coast actually prevent the US from effectively joining the war?

What effects does destabilisation the US economy have on everyone else?

 

[e of pi]

Does dumping a bunch of fake dollars into Hawaii & the American west coast actually prevent the US from effectively joining the war?

Not really, no.

 

[CV12Hornet]

I’m surprised USD is hard to forge, doesn’t the US recognise old dollars as legal tender, which are also easier to forge. Japan forging old dollars would be much easier to develop countermeasures against (stop recognising old dollars as legal tender) but it’d be a stopgap until they can forge & deliver new dollars

The artwork on the notes was more complex than that of the British currency and caused problems for the forgers. Additional challenges they faced included the paper, which contained minute silk threads, and the intaglio printing process, which added small ridges to the paper.[60]

Basically, US dollars were more complex and had more anti-counterfeiting measures compared to British notes, which largely had the same design as a century prior.

I suppose for the delivery they could do a ship load delivery to Hawaii during Pearl Harbour & turn Hawaii into an economic hazard

Hawaii is a very small part of the US economy and too vital as a military logistics hub for that to have any effect. Also, getting a ship in during the Pearl Harbor attack is going to be a nigh-impossible task.

 

[Googolbyte]

Basically, US dollars were more complex and had more anti-counterfeiting measures compared to British notes, which largely had the same design as a century prior.

Hawaii is a very small part of the US economy and too vital as a military logistics hub for that to have any effect. Also, getting a ship in during the Pearl Harbor attack is going to be a nigh-impossible task.

Why would a landing at Hawaii during Pearl Harbour be difficult? Didn’t the destruction during Pearl Harbour give Japan temporary free reign in the Pacific?

 

[BeardedHoplite]

The main issue with that is that essentially all of the major powers were command economies during the war. They would be far less vulnerable to currency shocks when the government is exercising so much control over the direction of the economy .

Assuming the Japanese did manage to sneak in billions of dollars somehow, it really wouldn't have an effect until the war is over and the economy is transitioned back to a peacetime situation.

 

[e of pi]

Why would a landing at Hawaii during Pearl Harbour be difficult? Didn’t the destruction during Pearl Harbour give Japan temporary free reign in the Pacific?

On the broad scale, wherever the Kido Butai was or might appear....perhaps. In the waters around Hawai'i within range of land-based scout and strike aircraft, and particularly at Pearl itself within the range of the 16" coastal defense batteries guarding the harbor, and with the Enterprise and her carrier air wing arriving in the area that night...no. Not enough to land a slow 10-15 knot cargo ship and unload lots of crates of cash directly in front of the Army and Navy.

 

[YYJ]

Why would a landing at Hawaii during Pearl Harbour be difficult? Didn’t the destruction during Pearl Harbour give Japan temporary free reign in the Pacific?

I like the image of a Japanese SNLF battalion going through all the hardships of landing in Hawaii on December 7, and when they get ashore, handing out packets of fake money.